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Ceetar’s Mets Prop Bets: Make Your Picks

Here’s a list of some normal, and some abnormal, bets on the Mets this year.  Purely for fun, feel free to leave your picks in the comments. or suggest some other good over/unders.
Reyes
1. over/under .345 OBP (I suspect this may be over/under Met in 2012)
2. over/under 142 games played.
3. over/under 60 SB

Wright
4. over/under 30 HR
5. over/under 150 Ks

Bay
6. over/under 25 HR

Beltran
7. over/under 130 games played
8. over/under 25 HR
9. over/under 10 SB
10. Will Beltran or Chase Utley have more home runs this year?

K-Rod
11. over/under 55 games finished

Ike Davis
12. over/under .275 avg

13. over/under 23 HR

Jon Niese
14. over/under 200Ks

15. Who will start more games?
a. Johan Santana
b. Dillon Gee
c. Chris Young

16. Who has a better year, R.A. Dickey, or Cole Hamels?

17a. Will Emaus be the starting second baseman all year?
17b. If no, is his replacement
A. On the team
B. In the minors
C. on another team
D. Not currently playing baseball
E. Luis Castillo

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A Blogger Chat With Sandy Alderson

This evening a selection of bloggers had a second conference call with Mets general manager Sandy Alderson.  The first one took place in December. There were a lot of great questions asked, and I’m sure there will be a full recap around the blogosphere.  For now, the response to my question, followed by links to the other bloggers’ write-ups that I will update as I see them.



I asked Alderson how active he would be with transactions this season, in particular with regards to the second base or bullpen candidates that “just missed” making the team.

He explained that once these final decisions are made in Spring Training, a lot of that possible depth in the bullpen goes away.  Guys may have to be offered back if they’re rule 5 picks, or they may choose to opt out of their contracts or just retire.  The depth in the bullpen would most likely be Igarashi, although the Mets are pretty deep at second base.  He stressed the importance of making sure guys are given a chance to perform and not go into every game like it could be their last.  I feel like this is a big upgrade from last year; despite the ultimate results, I didn’t think it was fair for guys like John Maine and Oliver Perez to have it constantly held over their head that they were pitching for their careers to the point that Jerry Manuel actually publicly contemplated removing Maine from the rotation without ever mentioning it to him.

This is a good philosophy to have, but I wonder if it may be a little naive.  After all, it’s not usually the manager and GM that are holding the axe over a players head, it’s the fans and sports radio.  Mike Jacobs and Frank Catalanotto only got 28 and 26 plate appearances  respectively before being cast away, and it seems like the fans were calling for their heads long before that.  Obviously the first base position took a rough turn when Murphy got hit with an injury days before the Opener, but what amounts to seven or eight games is hardly a telling sample size.  Ultimately getting Ike Davis on the Mets, particularly when Murphy experienced a setback in recovery, was a good move but that doesn’t mean Jacobs or Catalanotto got a real fair shot to contribute.

Two quick things I took note of during the call.  One is that there is still a chance Nick Evans makes this team, regardless of what happens with Beltran.  The other is it seemed like Sandy’s biggest test for Jose Reyes is his on base percentage, and that if he can raise that, he’ll be resigned.  I’m confident both will happen.

Transcript Courtesy of Michael Baron

Mets Blog

On The Black

Faith and Fear in Flushing

Mets Police

Amazin’ Avenue

The Real Dirty Mets Blog

NJ.com’s Matthew Artus

Mets Today

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Why The Mets Can Compete: The Starting Rotation

Don’t believe everything you hear: The New York Mets can compete for a division title this season.

The starting rotation for the Mets this year looks to be Mike Pelfrey, Jonathan Niese, R.A. Dickey, Chris Young, and Chris Capuano.  Those five are better than a lot of people give then credit for, but let’s start with the returning Mets from last year.

Mike Pelfrey

Year W L W-L% ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2010 15 9 .625 3.66 33 204.0 213 88 83 12 68 5 113 107 1.377 9.4 0.5 3.0 5.0 1.66
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Mike Pelfrey had a good year last year, and it’s not unreasonable to think he can have a comparable one.  He had one really bad month that he’ll need to avoid and work through, and hopefully another year of experience can help him do that.  He was one of the best pitchers in the game through April last year, and while he probably won’t be quite _that_ good again, if you balance it against him not being as bad as he was in July, the overall performance can probably be similar to what we see in the table above.  I think there is some hope that he can cut down on the walks and hits a little bit and maybe get better, but that remains to be seen.

R. A. Dickey

Year Age W L ERA G GS CG IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2010 35 11 9 2.84 27 26 2 174.1 165 62 55 13 42 104 138 1.187 8.5 0.7 2.2 5.4 2.48
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

R.A. Dickey came out of nowhere last season to have one of the best years in the league.  In fact his numbers are better than all of the pitchers on the Phillies sans Halladay, so all the talk of the Phillies having four aces and the Mets having none is a little silly.  The biggest question regarding Dickey is if last season was a one time deal.  Sandy Alderson doesn’t think so, and he gave Dickey a two year contract to prove it, and I don’t think so either.  It’s non unheard of for pitchers that utilize the knuckleball to suddenly find success later in their careers as Dickey has done.  Dickey has proven to be a very intelligent pitcher and really understands what’s going on on the mound.  He throws two knuckleballs and is able to change speeds with it.  His fastball isn’t even completely washed up, so when he does throw one, it reaches the mid 80s in velocity and doesn’t need just trickery to get past the hitter.  He was able to sustain success throughout the entire season last year, including multiple appearances against the same teams.  Also, his walk rate was surprisingly low for a knucklerballer.  Pitching to a 2.84 ERA might be a bit lofty, but he was also victimized by poor run support.  Perhaps a more potent offense gets the Mets more wins even if Dickey’s ERA rises slightly.

Jonathan Niese

Age W L ERA G CG IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
23 9 10 4.20 30 2 173.2 192 97 81 20 62 148 9 93 1.463 10.0 1.0 3.2 7.7 2.39
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Jonathan Niese is entering his second full season with the Mets, after a surprisingly good rookie year.  He hit a wall late in September, something he vows not to do in 2011.  He threw two complete games, and had a very nice 7.7 K/9 rate.  He really showed good command with his curveball, something you know no opponents are looking forward to facing.  I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect some improvement from Niese as he’s still a young pitcher learning and adjusting.  You’d like to see him give up a few less hits and walks overall, while utilizing his pitches to get more strikeouts.  He got 148 last year, and with a little improvement through a full season, he’s a guy that could reach 200.

Chris Young

Year Tm W L ERA ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
7 Seasons 48 34 3.80 109 1.209 7.4 1.1 3.5 7.8 2.21

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Chris Young has been injured a lot, but as you can see from his career line he’s a pretty good pitcher when he’s healthy.  The key is making sure he stays healthy, and can give the Mets numbers approximating his career line.  All indications out of Spring  Training are that he is healthy and pitching well.  If that means strengthening the pen so you don’t over-stress Young’s arm, or occasionally giving him extra rest, then the Mets should do it.  Young starts to make this rotation look pretty deep, and while he’s not going to overwhelm or blow anybody away, he gets the job done and induces a lot of weak contact.   Other options loom the longer we can keep him healthy, even if he doesn’t make it all season.  Johan Santana could return, Dillon Gee or another prospect or Buffalo starter could be throwing the ball really well and deserve a promotion.

Chris Capuano

Year W L ERA IP ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB Awards
6 Seasons 46 52 4.35 777.2 101 1.357 9.2 1.3 3.0 7.4 2.45
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Chris Capuano is not quite as impressive as Chris Young, but he’s got the benefit of having pitched enough last year to be over the “Is he healthy?” hump.  If he does make the rotation I’m happy with his ability to contribute to winning games, and I’d certainly take a healthy Capuano over most of the 5th best starters other teams are using.  In 66 innings last year, in the bullpen and the rotation, Capuano’s numbers were right around his career norms.  I’m hopeful with those 66 innings under his ‘new’ belt that he can get comfortable and have a quality year.   He’s healthy now, and maybe the lack of pitching of the last couple of years will actually mean his arm is fully healed and hasn’t been worn down by season after season of pitching strain.   Despite Chris Young probably being a better pitcher, I’m more confident that Capuano can stay on the field all season and win games for the New York Mets.

 

Injuries  and Depth

I’m not going to pretend that the Mets have a ton of depth to replace these guys if things go wrong.  Certainly if the Mets rotation misses more than a handful of starts here and there, there could be problems.  Pat Misch could be an emergency starter, but he’s league average at best.  Maybe Dillon Gee or another minor league prospect can come up and contribute if they’re forced into it, and maybe someone emerges later in the season if someone gets hurt.  There will be at least five starters in Buffalo, and presumably someone will warrant promotion at some point.

 

Then there is Johan Santana.  You would have to to think removing Santana from the rotation and adding Chris Capuano would be a net loss of games for the Mets, but it’s never as clear cut as that.  Actually, the Mets lost a lot of Santana’s games last year by scoring no runs when he gave up merely one.  If the Mets are hitting, couldn’t they win more games than that even if Capuano gives up three?  It’s perhaps unrealistic to expect Santana, coming off a anterior capsule tear, to contribute anything this year, but it’s not wrong to hope and wonder if he can return around the All-Star break and get stronger as the season reaches it’s conclusion.  All baseball seasons are full of uncertainty and risk, and while it’s certainly a risk that one of the Mets pitchers could injure themselves and hurt the Mets chances, there’s also the possibility that Santana returns and contributes down the stretch.

 

So as it stands right now, the Mets rotation looks pretty solid from top to bottom and is full of pitchers with talent and ability. They should keep the Mets in the game, and create opportunities for them to win those games with some offense.  The diversity of the staff plays into things as well; You’ve got a knuckleball, a curveball, a sinkerball, and two control pitchers.  That’s a lot of prep work for opposing lineups to do to try to keep on top of all the different looks they’ll see when they face the Mets.

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Spring Training Voyage

 

I’m back from Spring Training, and it’s all too soon. I was having a lot of fun poking around Port St. Lucie and Digital Domain Park.  I took 500 pictures over three days, and captured images of many of our favorite, and less favorite, Mets players.  I watched road, home, and minor league games and saw players from the low minors to the cream of the crop doing all different kinds of baseball drills.  I met Amber Coyle, and Matthew Rose of NL East Chatter and The Real Dirty Mets Blog.

First, check out these two posts I put up last week involving Mets eating dinner and pictures from the St. Patrick’s Day game against the Red Sox and then click below to view more pictures.
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Mets Players, and Owners, Eat at Duffy’s

After returning from Fort Myers to Port St. Lucie on Thursday, we went to Duffy’s for dinner.   One of the waiters there noticed our Mets stuff and mentioned that all the Wilpons were in earlier eating dinner.  He said they didn’t tip as well as in years past, but it was still a lot of money.

 

Halfway through our meal my wife noticed five athletic looking guys walk past us to a table in the back.  I recognized Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and I suspect the others were also just returned from the Red Sox game and were getting a late dinner.   I think Lucas Duda and Russ Adams were there.

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Collins and Alderson Releasing Castillo (pics!)

This picture was taken around 10am on Friday morning.  Luis Castillo was still in a Mets uniform and on the practice fields.  I wonder what they were talking about..

 

Sandy Alderson and Terry Collins discussing something

 

 

Shortly after this Twitter was all abuzz about Luis Castillo being released.

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Mets New Fundraising Plan: Sell The Blogs

Much has been made of the Mets current financial woes, but I’ve recently learned of a new plan they have to raise some money.  Starting on Opening Day the Mets are going to start a new concession booth at Citi Field out in the center field concourse.  This new stand will sell new and used Mets blogs at a reasonable price.

 

First up is the esteemed blog, Read the Apple.  In what is perhaps a misinterpreted understanding of common adages, the Mets believe if they sell an Apple a day, it’ll keep the doctors away.  Health is a key component to a successful Mets season, and they’re doing everything they can.

Eat The Apple

 

All articles featuring The Apple are fictitious. No Mets were harmed in the writing of this story.  Optimistic Mets Fan would like to thank The Apple, and the Academy, for awarding us a prestigious Fonzie award.

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Mr. Mets Landing and Pyrotechnics

The Mets announced this weekend that they will have Pyrotechnics night again this year.  They also announced that they renamed the last two sections of the Left Field Landing seats to Mr. Mets Landing, and will be discounting them.

Mr. Met’s Landing is a new, specially priced area of the ballpark.

Sections 338 and 339 in Citi Field’s Left Field Landing are priced at $10 for kids 12 and under and $20 for adults ($20 and $30 respectively for four Marquee game dates)

Mr. Met will visit both sections during every home Mets game.

I sat in the future Mr. Mets Landing section late last year.  That post has some pictures, and I’ll share some here as well.  What I was most shocked about was how much I actually enjoyed the seats.  I’d previously been under the assumption that the Landing may have been the worse section in the ballpark due to the overhang above you making it tough to see the scoreboard, and the Landing itself blocking you from seeing the left fielder.  This is still probably the case if you’re beyond rows 5-6 or so, but otherwise I think Mr. Mets Landing will end up being pretty popular.  You get a view of the game from nearly dead center, which is similar to the view you get on the TV cameras at home.  You get the view from behind the pitcher as he throws his pitch, as opposed to watching from behind the batter.  You’re more a part of the team on the field than the team at the plate, and I think this is one of the best things Citi Field has going for it that we didn’t get to experience at Shea Stadium.

I was at the inaugural Pyrotechnics night last year, and I had a good time.  I was initially skeptical; Fireworks night had been my favorite promotion growing up and I was sad to see it go.  I turned out to be pleasantly surprised; given the name change I did not expect fireworks, but the Pyrotechnic display that we did get was pretty good.  Not that there weren’t issues with it, but it was new and exciting and I had fun.  I’m planning to go again this year.