You can root for the Mets without being convinced of their doom
It’s a new season with fresh players. There’s nothing to be gained by comparing this year’s team to last year’s. So here’s a couple of phrases to avoid so we can all just enjoy the 2012 Mets season.
“That would’ve been a double/out last year”
“That wouldn’t have been a home run last year”
“Reyes would’ve gotten to that ball.”
“Reyes would be on third base right now.”
It’s natural to be a little nervous that David Wright hasn’t played a Spring Training game yet because of some pain/tightness/discomfort in his ribs/chest/oblique.
It’s easy to panic, but the signs seem to point to the Mets being super overly cautious this Spring. The Mets have dealt with some injuries in that area the last couple of years, and most recently Scott Hairston re-injured his oblique, months after he originally hurt it. Can you imagine the public relations disaster if just a week after Hairston hurt the same muscle, David Wright took a hard swing in a meaningless Spring Training game and was out until May? The Mets probably view it as a smart move to just not let Wright swing hard for another week or so to assure themselves that he’s not going to hurt it. He’s certainly got plenty of time to get his timing down for the real games.
Wright claims he’d be playing if this was the regular season, and despite the reputation of the Mets word on injuries being what it is, we don’t have anything else to go on. He’s reportedly doing all his workouts and stretches so he can’t possible be that injured. Hopefully we’ll see him next week as planned and by the time the season starts we won’t remember that he was even dealing with this.
This is an idea I’ve been bouncing around for a while, and then The Crazy Mets Fan made a comment on Twitter to Matt Cerrone that he should get a pub in Citi Field called Cerrone’s with some nice IPAs. I chimed in (and you can follow me on Twitter here) that they should do dueling brews.
This started as a thought about a variable beer menu at Citi Field. The best beer bars are not the ones with a good selection, but the ones with a rotating selection of seasonal and small release beers. The idea was solidified while following the Giants Super Bowl run this year. Brooklyn Brewery in New York and Anchor Steam in San Francisco made a wager on the NFC Championship game that the team’s brewery that lost would serve the beers of the other brewery. Brooklyn beers flowed in San Francisco, and it was wonderful.
So why not do the same thing at Citi Field? We know which teams are coming in for each homestand. Why not have two rotating taps, one serving beers local to New York (minus the Bronx) and one serving beers from the city of the away team. These two taps would ‘duel’ until one was empty, becoming the winner. I’m not quite sure what the beer would win besides an announcement that it’d won, but it’d be a fun way to introduce Mets fans to the brews of their enemy and provide the beer-loving masses, who’s size is underestimated, with some nice beer to drink while watching baseball.
The first homestand features the Braves and the Nationals. I don’t know what the availability and distribution rules are for acquiring beer from far away places, but Terrapin is an Atlanta brewery that you can find in New York, so it’d be a good choice. Washington DC is a little tougher, and perhaps the toughest baseball city. Baltimore has some options, but that’s a different team. Shenandoah Brewing bills itself as Washington DC’s only brewery, but as far as I know they don’t distribute to New York. Flying Dog is nearby, but it’s based in Maryland and equidistant to Baltimore. On the other hand, AL is junior league baseball and it doesn’t really count.
I think this would be a cool idea. Citi Field needs more distinctive beers outside of the Anheuser Busch distribution agreement and why not tie it to what’s going on on the field? That’s why we all go there after all.
Mike Pelfrey‘s FIP has actually stayed pretty steady over the last four years, and his xFIP was even steadier. The main difference being that he game up less home runs in 2008 and 2010. So the question becomes what was it that caused the home run rate to be lower in those years? Was it dumb luck, or some adjustments on Pelfrey’s part? Personally I think his xFIP staying the same is precisely what’s wrong with the stat. Pelfrey clearly pitched better in 2010, particularly in the first part of the year, than he has since.
There probably still is some luck to it. The margin of error for flying out instead of hitting a home run is tiny. Optimistically, Mike Pelfrey’s numbers in 2011 were probably at the far end of bad luck and it’d be pretty easy to see how even with changing almost nothing he’d probably have a better result in 2012. Hoping for lucky bounces is not a good philosophy for a major league pitch to adopt however.
Pelfrey is working hard this Spring at his sinker. This is something he admittedly struggled with in 2011, and harnessing it against should be a positive. For one, it’s a different look than teams are used to. Adding in a pitch provides a new wrinkle to the scouting report and helps keep hitters off balance. Additionally, sinkers are harder to hit out of the park as they are harder to hit in the air. So far the reports are positive on his feel for the pitch.
With luck and the sinker, Mike Pelfrey should be an improved pitcher again in 2012. Throw in a likely improved bullpen and more of Pelfrey’s games should turn into Mets wins. That only happened 12 of 33 times last season.
Seatcrew.com is a new secondary ticket marketplace designed to be fan friendly by eliminating ticket fees. I know we’re all fed up with handling fees, and print at home fees and all the various ticket fees from other markets and even the original seller in most cases. At Seatcrew the listed price is the amount you pay.
As a way to get their name out there and get you using their site (after all, the more sellers the better selection of seats for buyers) Optimistic Mets Fan is going to be giving away tickets courtesy of Seatcrew for four different games of the 2012 Mets season. There will be a Brewers game on May 15th, the Rockies on August 20th, and the Phillies on September 17th.
First up is the Nationals on April 11th. This is the final game of the opening homestand, and you should look for the giveaway during the week leading up to Opening Day. Brush up on your history, because I’ll be asking an Opening Day themed trivia question in order to qualify for the tickets.
Seatcrew looks like the perfect mix between between Stubhub and Craigslist for ticket sales. A comfortable and organized website, and the ability to negotiate directly with the seller in order to complete the sale and transfer in the best way possible for both parties..all without fees. The video below will tell you everything you need to know.
This isn’t a guide to every last detail of Port St. Lucie, but I’d like to share my observations about watching the Mets down there. Tonight is the first televised broadcast, and also the first audio broadcast.
The most interesting part, in my opinion, is the morning workouts. These occur pretty much every day, even on non-game days, on the fields behind Digital Domain Park. You’ll see the entire camp full of players out there, except ones that may be playing in an away game, doing workouts and drills. Minor and major leaguers in all shades of Mets uniforms wearing all sorts of different numbers. You’ll see guys you’ve never heard of, even if you pay pretty close attention to the minor leagues. They’ll do all sorts of interesting drills and you’ll see the coaches and managers barking orders and instructions. You’ll get an inside look at how players prepare for games and seasons. You’ll see them practice learning the signs and just doing baseball things. Sometimes the minor leaguers will start playing a game near the end of the session, this is normally the time the regular players retreat to Digital Domain Park to prepare for the regular game. Usually you’ll be asked to leave, but sometimes you can catch an inning or two.
You can get autographs if you’re persistent, but during workouts these guys are mostly working so you’ll have to be quick and paying attention to who may have a moment. They’ll have to walk by you to get from field to field, and often this is when they’ll sign. Another good time to get autographs is after games, particularly if it’s an away game and the players are headed back to a bus or their cars if it’s close. When the Mets travel to nearby Jupiter to play the Cardinals or the Marlins, many players drive. Many people looking for autographs wait in the walkway between the players’ exit and their parking lot. This is also a good way to get a look at what cars players drive. Autographs are there to be had, so if that’s your thing you should have no problem. Normal rules apply; if you’re a cute girl or a kid you’ve got the best shot.
Spring Training tickets are often not expensive, and it’s a chance to get seats that are really close that would be virtually impossible to get at a Major League park. The atmosphere is so much more relaxed and casual and it’s a fun time all around. Both years I went I sat first row in front of the Mets bullpen, literally within touching distance of all the pitchers as they warmed up to go in. Close enough that they can here what you’re saying to the people you’re with. There are season ticket holders in Florida, but there are still seats available mere rows behind home plate too. And it’s roughly 10% of the cost of a Major League stadium.
Another fun activity that’s probably more common in places like Port St. Lucie than Tampa Bay is player-spotting out on the town. Most people know about Duffy’s, a chain restaurant with a bowling alley attached down the road from the Spring Training Complex. SNY films some segments there, and it’s a common place for players to hang out too. The Mets do bowling nights on Sunday evenings, so if you want to watch baseball players playing a different sport that’s the perfect time. Port St. Lucie is not a tiny place, but it’s not a city so there are only a limited amount of places to go for a nightlife experience. Another good place is Vine and Barley which is a wine and beer bar down the road. The last time I was down there I ran into Scott Hairston, Justin Turner, and Kai Gronauer, and I’m pretty sure there were one or two players down there I didn’t recognize. Even on a non-baseball front I suggest this place, as it’s got self-serve wine tastings and an excellent beer menu.
The worst part of Spring Training is when you return home. You’re so ready for baseball that it feels wrong that there are no longer games you can attend. Still, it’s great time and a must-do for baseball fans. It’s baseball and warm weather and a great way to start to get excited about the new season. If you’re headed down this year, have a great time and tweet lots of pictures!
The Mostly Mets Podcast discussed offense in the National League East in episode 33. The Mets scored the most runs in the division last year, and Toby, Patrick and Ted agreed that they’d probably lead again this year, although the Marlins have gotten real close.
Speaking in terms of runs scored the Mets scored 718, the Phillies 713, NL Average was 668, Braves had 641, Florida 625, and the Nationals 624. The Phillies offense is heavily influenced by the park they play in, and without Ryan Howard indefinitely plus another year of age for Rollins and Utley it doesn’t seem like the Phillies will score as many in 2012. Can the addition (And subtraction) of Jose Reyes account for 92 runs of difference between the two teams? The Marlins offense is heavily lopsided with Reyes, Hanley Ramirez and Mike Stanton making up most of it.
The Mets drop off from Beltran to Duda shouldn’t be too great, and Andres Torres can probably give the Mets what Angel Pagan gave them last year. Replacing Jose Reyes’ production is a little tougher. Luckily most of his at bats will be made up with more at bats from Ike Davis and a little more Ruben Tejada. David Wright will get more at bats as well, and all of them with a healthy back. This will all keep the offense churning, even if Jason Bay exhibits no signs of life.
If I had to pinpoint one player to worry about, it’d be Tejada. He’s still young though, so there’s still plenty of hope he’ll improve. Last year’s OBP was partially BABIP/AVG fueled, but he did improve on his strikeout and walk rate. Keep improving there and even if he gets lucky he’ll still maintain a very helpful rate at getting on base.
One other factor to consider that makes the Mets clear-cut favorites: power. The Mets got on base more than anyone else in the National League except the Cardinals, but they had league average slugging. This translates to a lot of runners stranded that otherwise would’ve been runs. In 2012 the Mets will have more power. Duda is already impressing people with his power this spring, and Davis will join him to tattoo the Pepsi Porch all year long. Add a healthier Wright and even a 20% bounce back from Jason Bay towards his career norms and the Mets will be a very dangerous threat. This is all without even mentioning the walls. The Marlins addition of Jose Reyes will likely raise their on base percentage, but not enough to make up the difference.
I’m confident the Mets will have the best offense in the National League East this season. It’s one step towards a successful season, and it’s also a step that isn’t going anywhere. The Mets offense is controlled through 2013 at least, with prospects prepared to fill in at some of the weaker positions soon. The Mets offense is great and will stay that way.
The Mets now have their dynamic pricing guide online on Mets.com. Tickets first went on sale to certain presale codes Monday. I got Opening Day tickets at face value, but just three hours later they were $10 higher. Btw, at 10am today the Mets blogger presale begins. More details here.
This ultimately sucks, although it won’t quite hurt the true fans. Dynamic pricing does not change the prices of packs and plans. If you want a particular promotion or banner day, you have an incentive to buy ahead beyond just getting better seats. As more fans get exciting about specific events, the price will go up. This will have a fairly catastrophic effect on suddenly popular games. Clinchers, Dickey’s first home game after his no-hitter, and late season divisional matchups during pennant races can suddenly become very expensive. Staying ahead of the hype will save you money.
On the flip side, it’s unlikely tickets will plummet that far for unwanted games. The Mets set up an artificial floor so that a fan will never pay less than a season ticket holder paid for that section. Reading between the lines to me means that it’ll never be less than the 10% discount they get. Prices are fairly reasonable for value games as they are, but it’d be nice if the more expensive games become affordable if the Mets are eliminated early or if the weather is supposed to be really bad.
Another interesting use for dynamic pricing is tracking the popularity of games. It can give us insight into tickets sold that previously only the Mets knew. If you want to know how Banner Day is doing for example, you can check out the prices for that game against a similarly valued game and see if it’s inherently more popular or not. As we get a feel for it, we’ll probably be able to tell how close it is to sold out, even within specific sections.
I’ll also be curious to see how the secondary market reacts. Sites like Stub Hub and Seat Crew that deal in second-hand tickets may not be able to keep up with the fluctuations. If a game suddenly takes off in popularity, it will take a while for people to unlist and relist their tickets. If ticket prices drop, the secondary market will suddenly be overpriced. This may also kill day of game sales. If fans really want to go to a game, chances are the prices will increase past the secondary market…unless it’s raining.
A special pre-sale for blog readers starts Wednesday at 10am. Follow this link and use the code HODGES to purchase tickets to any regular season Mets game. Obviously Opening Day and the Subway Series are the ones guaranteed to sell out, but you might want to get a jump on other games as well. You never know what supply and demand will dictate closer to the day of a game, especially with the new flex pricing.
My suggestions are to buy for Banner Day and the bobblehead (Edgardo Alfonzo) of your choice. June 3rd is the Mets Hall of Fame induction for John Franco. Complete promotional information found here.
Optimism starts small; will the Mets improve on 2011’s record? Are they a better team? Will they perform better?
I’m leaning towards yes. Losing Reyes, Pagan and Beltran is a big hit, but the Mets offense is still pretty strong. Lucas Duda looks like a solid player. Andres Torres may not be great, but even if he’s not good the Mets have high hopes for Kirk Nieuwenhuis coming up pretty quickly. David Wright and Ike Davis are healthy, and Daniel Murphy should get some more playing time as well. Josh Thole and Ruben Tejada may not be the best, but they’re pretty good at not making out and keeping the line moving. This team won’t have problems scoring runs.
The bullpen is clearly slated to be better. Francisco Rodriguez will not be here, but the Mets added Frank Francisco, Ramon Ramirez, and Jon Rauch. Some injury concerns, but the bullpen has some pretty good depth.
The starters are where the big questions come in. The Mets lost Chris Capuano, who did a pretty good job for them. Good job aside, his eminently replaceable 1.7 rWAR is not going to handicap them much. Johan Santana is slated to take that spot, provided he does not have a setback during Spring Training. Despite this serious possibility I have faith Santana can at least approach the 1.7 rWAR Capuano gave the Mets. Even if he’s somewhat diminished, he’s a smart competitor that should be able to get by with somewhat reduced ability. With luck bouncing a little more in Pelfrey’s favor this season, and Jon Niese’s peripherals leading to a better ERA, it’s possible the Mets starters will be better too. It probably hinges most on health, but that’s an argument and concern for every team.
So there’s a very high-level argument for the Mets being better. We can worry about how much better another time, particularly as it pertains to the other NL East teams and their records. Specifically, it’ll be decided on the field with the games being played, not on a blog or newspaper somewhere before the season even starts.