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The Math: Optimism For .500

The Mets struggled a bit and saw their good season start to crumble as they lost game after game to fall well below the .500 mark.  Now they’ve picked it up again, it’s worth taking a look to see what they need to do to finish at 81-81.

 

There are thirty games left.  The Mets are 64-68, and need to go 17-13 the rest of the way to hit .500.

 

There are good reasons to expect that the Mets can do just that.  One is that Jose Reyes is back.  Having him in the lineup at the expense of either Tejada or Turner will make a big difference, especially once he’s got a game or two under his belt to get warmed up.  It’s not just Reyes; Duda has been hitting the ball well and making a case for 2012.  Nick Evans has put together a nice little stretch here.  They haven’t been scoring a ton of runs, but they’re getting the job done and most everyone is contributing.

 

Another is that rosters expand on Thursday.  If you look closely at this season, you’ll see that the biggest stretches of losing coincided with the bullpen pitching poorly.  Usually that was closely correlated to the bullpen being overworked.  With an expanded roster and a couple more relievers floating around, that shouldn’t be a problem.

 

The Mets have stumbled a couple of times, but for most of the season they’ve played slightly above .500.   All it takes is a little bit of a streak, a couple of hot bats, and some timely hits.  17-13 is certainly doable.   The competition is certainly not going to be a problem.  The Mets have a lot of games against some sub-par teams that are as far out of it as they are, and there is no reason they can’t win those games.

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Some Random Math About Bay and 2012

The Mets offense has the potential to be pretty excellent next year.  That next level to ‘really excellent’ depends a lot on Jason Bay.  He’s shown some improvement lately, perhaps there were lingering effects of the concussion that he didn’t even realize.  Still, he’s been pretty bad overall.   I think how well Jason Bay plays the rest of 2011 will go a long way towards how the media feels about the Mets in 2012. I’m proposing a direct relationship between Jason Bay’s home run total through the rest of the season, and the Mets predicted win total in 2012.

 

He’s got 9 right now.  11 seems a stretch, but if he got to 20 I feel like people would proclaim him ‘back’.  I’ll set that as the absolute ceiling, and say it equates to 89 wins.   Each home run less than that will be worth 1 win.  If he doesn’t hit another, the Mets will be predicted to win 78.  If he hits 5 to finish with 14, 83 wins.

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The Positives of Pelfrey as Closer Talk

There are good things to be inferred by the Pelfrey as closer talk. Him actually pitching as a closer is a bad idea; you can’t replace those 200 innings he pitches and the closer position is extremely overrated. Still, it’s good to see the Mets trying to think of solutions to make this team better in 2012. Many of the thoughts will be bad ones like this, but some of them may turn out to be great ideas that help the Mets become more competitive in the future. It’s nice to have guys in charge trying to come up with each and every way to make the Mets a better baseball team.

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Free Falling

The Mets have been in a free fall, plummeting towards worthlessness and erasing all the good will they achieved this season. It’s not totally their fault; They’ve been struck with a lot of injuries, and Sandy Alderson traded two expendable, but useful, parts for prospects once it was obvious the Mets weren’t going to make a real run at the playoffs. Still, despite the occasional fight they show, they’ve also showed a fair amount of looking flat too. They misplay balls, take bad approaches at the plate, and make bad decisions.

Take last night’s game. The Mets got guys on bases with plenty of opportunity, and turned around and let Worley off the hook. They refused to swing the bat and struck out five times looking, all with runners in scoring position. They worked Worley, but as soon as they gave up the lead they made 12 consecutive outs letting Worley go deeper in the game than he probably should’ve. They misplayed balls in the outfield and made bad throws.

This isn’t to say the Mets have quit. They look more depressed than disinterested. They press and make desperation plays or throws, or look almost fearful at the plate. The word I would use is lost. They look like they don’t know what to do, and have lost some of the routine and instinct that guides most baseball play in an effort to try to do too much.

You can see the effects already. People talk about the Mets as if they’re a horrible disaster of a team, despite playing competitively for a good chunk of the year. The stories about financial disaster are back, false rumors about not being able to spend money and sign players. They’re writing off 2012 without having any idea what will happen with the prospects or free agents this offseason.

Just like the Mets bounced back from 5-13 early, they’ll bounce back from this as well. They won’t play this badly the rest of the way, and that last month will set a tone and provide a lot of info about the off-season direction they need to take. But they have erased much of the goodwill they got for playing hard and being resilient during the midseason. Some may write a positive story overall about the season, but most will dismiss the Mets as anything worth thinking about no matter how this season ends.

 

Faith and Fear in Flushing also has a post today, as probably many Mets bloggers do, about free falling and not being able to get up.  Great minds thinking alike and all that.

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Time To Put Lucas Duda in Right Field

Just last week I suggested the Mets bring up Fernando Martinez to get some playing time at the major league level.  This week he’s returned to the DL.   Maybe the guy will eventually stay healthy, but right now he’s not an option. 

Terry Collins mentioned getting Lucas Duda some playing time in right field, and now seems like the time.   One of the Mets other almost ready prospects,  Kirk Nieuwenhuis, is also on the Dl rendering another RF option unavailable.  These are two of the probable candidates for Duda to compete with in Spring Training for a job in 2012 ,and right now it looks like he’s got the leg up having been successful at the major league level, and having stayed healthy. 

I don’t really care to see a ton of Scott Hairston, Jason Pridie or Mike Baxter.  Nick Evans is another guy that seems like he’d like to compete for that 2012 RF job but probably won’t be a real candidate.  Evans can play first at least, and I’d rather Evans get those AB than the other bench guys, but the Mets might as well give Duda an extra month or reps in the outfield with an eye on 2012.   He’s definitely starting to look like a solid hitter that will need a position for the future.

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Biggest Week of Mets Baseball in Years

This next week or two may be the biggest games the Mets have played since the last week of 2008, and they also might be the biggest games they’ll play for years.  The Mets record, as well as the Phillies and Braves, will greatly determine the look of the team going forward this year, and maybe even next year too.

Sandy Alderson has said he would consider trading Carlos Beltran right now a white flag, but if the Mets play poorly over the next two weeks, that white flag is inevitable anyway.   It’s probably not just Carlos Beltran either; The Mets won’t get a ton for guys like Chris Capuano or Jason Isringhausen, but if the chances of contention plummet there will be little reason to keep them.   If they manage to climb closer in the race, the small return from trading those guys won’t be worth gutting the team.  In a way, the Mets could finish a handful of games above or below .500 based on how they do in these next bunch of games.

Either way this season will likely be viewed as a step in the right direction, but if the Mets fall out of it here and restructure the team with next year in mind, the record and excitement levels will fall.   That probably won’t be enough to prompt many to invest in this team, raising projected income and in turn, payroll.  As the memory of the last Mets game fades, we’ll be subjected to more financial news regarding the Picard lawsuit and the Madoff mess.  Their will be speculations about Einhorn’s control, about how much the payroll can possibly go up, and if the Mets will actually field a competitive team.   So the only real news will be mostly doom and gloom again, which won’t help sell tickets.  Just today someone called into WFAN in the brief 20 minutes I had it on proclaiming there is no way the Mets compete for five or six years.

If the Mets climb back into the race and get closer, Sandy Alderson will be more likely to keep players like Beltran, and may even look to add a reliever or someone, especially if the player can be helpful beyond this year too.   Whether or not they can or will win a playoff race is not the point here, the point is that if they stay close and prove that they can play with anyone it suggests that the Mets may not be years from competing.   They could go into the offseason with fans thinking they’re getting close and with the right moves, including resigning Jose Reyes, the Mets could be a very good team next year.  

There’s going to be a lot of stuff to watch with this team this year, and if they remain competitive and winning games they’ll bring in fans to watch versus fans switching gears to what could be a returning NFL season or something else.  Jose Reyes could have a record breaking season, as despite spotting the opposition 11 or more games, he’s still got a commanding lead in base hits.  David Wright will be returning, one of the Mets franchising players who they’ve sorely missed.  Johan Santana may return, and while that’s still up in the air, as is his effectiveness, it will be nice to see him on the mound again.  I would like to be at his first game back if I can at least.

It all starts tonight against the Phillies with your hero in attendence.   The Phillies aren’t taking the Mets seriously, opting to give  Halladay and Lee some extra rest coming off the break and pushing them back until after the weekend.  Facing Vance Worley, Cole Hamels who the Mets routinely beat, and Kyle Kendrick is not a daunting task.  Hopefully the Mets can get a hot start to the second half, while exposing the Phillies pitching depth, and start catching both them and the Braves who are playing the Nationals this weekend.

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Johan Santana to the Bullpen?

The Mets starting rotation has been performing pretty well.  No one’s an ace, but mostly they’re keeping the team in games and pitching pretty well.  Johan Santana appears to have taken the next step towards return, but there are a lot of questions revolving around that.  Will he be the dominant Santana we’ve come to know and love, or some lesser pitcher while still recovering from the shoulder surgery?  Which pitcher would he replace in the rotation, and will he be able to go deep into games, or will he be on a strict pitch count?

Maybe it’s Johan Santana who should go to the bullpen.  In the best case we’re talking about five weeks of games, and maybe six or seven starts.  He’ll barely have time to really get into a routine and build up some arm strength.  Pitching out of the bullpen would allow him to work on his game and proving his shoulder is repaired without having to really push it.  He’ll be able to build muscle and arm strength and work on his mechanics without the strain of 100 pitches at a time.  They could work out a schedule and not pitch him too often or back to back days or whatever works best for him.

He has done it before.  When he first came up with the Twins he spent a lot of time in the bullpen, and while that was before he was established it’s not exactly a foreign concept to him, he’s pitched 77 games out of the bullpen in his career.  Let the beat writers joke about the Mets 23 million dollar middle reliever, it’s still better than the Mets 23 million dollar Ace who’s still experiencing soreness in his shoulder.  Or..

Many feel Francisco Rodriguez is a lock to get traded before his option vests.  It’s certainly possible, and it does seem like the Mets have a plan in mind with him as they certainly don’t seem to care about his option or use.  What about using Johan Santana to close?  Closers don’t have a whole ton of value, which is part of the reason you don’t need an overpaid closer clogging up the roster, but you do still need to replace the quality innings Rodriguez gives you and what better way than someone like Santana?  You could say that Santana is not used to getting ready to pitch that fast, but he’d have all of “Spring Training” to get used to it, and with a closer you often have a couple more minutes.

After all, the goal with Johan is to get him pitching again. He needs to build up his arm muscles again and recover from having his shoulder sliced open.  He doesn’t necessarily need to throw 40-50 innings to do so, 20-25 in a more limited capacity could be just fine.  He’d be able to test out his shoulder, get some time under his belt with major league innings, and shut down at the end of the season healthy and ready to rev it back up in Spring Training like normal.

A lot of this could depend on how the Mets are doing in the playoff picture when Johan Santana comes back.  On the other hand, it’d be foolish to rely on Johan for anything this year at this point in his rehab, so if he does indeed come back, the Mets don’t need to desperately shove him into the rotation and demand he win every game.  Let him ease himself back into pitching, and take what value you can get while keeping him healthy and strong.  He’s too valuable to future years to push him too hard coming back from surgery.

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Sandy Has It Under Control

This probably doesn’t bother anyone on the team, so it’s far from becoming a distraction, but the situation with his vesting option is starting to become too common a topic of conversation among fans, bloggers and media.  They brought him in to finish a game yesterday in an almost certain loss, which suggests that maybe they’re just not as worried about it as the rest of us are.

 

That’s the catch here; the Mets know a lot more about the situation than we do.  So why get bent out of shape about something that’s probably not a big deal?  The Mets know whether or not Francisco Rodriguez fits into their budget, or under what circumstances his option vesting for next year is not a problem.  Sandy Alderson knows whether or not they’re going to try to trade him before that, or extend him and have him void the option.   I’m not suggesting we have blind faith in Alderson; after all he’s just as fallible as the next guy.  However I think it’s silly to treat this situation like the Mets are purposely sticking their head in the sand regarding the 2012 payroll and how their closer fits into it.  At the end of the season, the Mets aren’t going to cry about what happens with Frankie, it’ll all be part of the bigger picture.

 

All in all, I’m just tired of half the Mets talk being about getting rid of our best players.  It was tedious at best during the offseason, but now that I’m actively enjoying these guys beating down the opponents, can we stop wishing them away?  I’d rather take a shot with Jose Reyes and whoever else makes the team better every year than close my eyes and hope I’ll be able to enjoy Mets baseball a couple of years down the road.  I’m actually enjoying the Mets this season, I’m enjoying watching Jose Reyes literally scare the Cubs defenders into making two errors on one play and running all the way around the baseball diamond.  I’m enjoying knowing that the game is over after eight innings when we have a lead.   Don’t take that away from me please.

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My MLB Player Prop Bets

I made a couple more single dollar prop bets yesterday.   Nothing real fancy.
Jose Reyes – SB in the 2011 Regular Season
Over 33½ (-125)
Mariano Rivera – Total Saves in the 2011 Regular Season
Under 36 (-115)

Will any of the Big 4 win the NL Cy Young?
Big 4 include Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels
No -180
 
Cole Hamels – Total Wins in the 2011 Regular Season
Under 16½ (-120)

Carlos Beltran – BA in the 2011 Regular Season
Over .273 -115
Andy Pettitte – Will he pitch for the Yankees in the 2011 Regular Season
 No -200
 
 
How many of the Big 4 will win over 20 games or more in the 2011 Regular Season?
Under 1 (-115)
RA Dickey – Total Wins in the 2011 Regular Season
 Over 11½ (-115)
 
 
Who will win more games in the regular season series between the 2 teams listed. Must play at least 15 games for action.
New York Mets +240
Competitor: Atlanta Braves

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Carlos Beltran in 2012

My ideal situation with Carlos Beltran is that he has a good year, and the Mets negotiate a new, reasonable priced contract with him and he moves to right field in 2012. I know this might not be the perfect baseball move, that from a pure numbers standpoint it may not make sense to retain Carlos, even if he has a good year without injury.  Baseball is more than a fantasy draft of the best statistical robots that put up a certain line of stats; it’s also very emotional, and I happen to like Carlos Beltran.  I’d be very happy for him to finish successfully, and one day add his number to the wall of retired Mets out in left field.  Beltran has been a great teammate and a great part of the New York community since he’s arrived, and I think continuing that into perpetuity would be great for both him and the Mets.

So while other fans seem to be counting the days until Beltran is no longer a Met, or thinking about possible trade targets for him now or by the trading deadline, I’m hoping he somehow remains a successful Met for the rest of his career and thinking about ways that that can happen without sacrificing team success.

The biggest issue with Beltran is that he has bone bruises on his knees that don’t heal easily, and he may never fully recover from them.  The brace he wears is meant to minimize the damage to his knees and those bruises, but he’s only been wearing the thing for two months worth of games so it’s hard to get a sense of how much it affects him.  His bruises were better at the end of the season than they were when he started rehabbing to return, which is a good sign.  The perfect, if unlikely, situation would be that his knees heal completely and that the brace becomes second nature to him and doesn’t inhibit his swing or ability to run in any way.

So if Beltran were to prove himself healthy and productive in 2011, what would be a reasonable contract for him to satisfy my emotional desire for him to remain here, and yet not inhibit the Mets from being great, and continuing to be great?  His contract currently pays him 18.5 million dollars, which is definitely too much.  Technically he’s only making 13 million, as 5.5 of it is deferred.  Even if the compromise was the same amount in his paycheck, that’s probably also a bit high for anything but a one year deal for a player turning 35 at the start of the 2012 season.  Something more along the lines of three years at 27 million seems to be what he might be worth going forward.  The Mets could lace it with all sorts of incentives for games played and awards received.  If three seems too much, maybe two plus a vesting option based on games played, and therefore health, for the third year.

I have no idea if that’s something Carlos Beltran, or his agent Scott Boras, would accept.  I have no idea what, if anything, Carlos could do to make the Mets consider keeping him.   Based on his work in the community, and his comments about staying a New York Met, I do believe Carlos wants to be here, but often money talks.  This is all predicated on Beltran having a good 2011 season and looking like he can continue to produce for multiple years anyway, but based on how he was doing in September last year I believe that he can definitely contribute if he can manage the situation with his knees.