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A Week Later: Hopeful for the 2012 Mets

No Met has made an error, hit a home run, or struck out looking in over a week.  With a week of the offseason under my belt to let the highs and lows of emotion mellow out with time, it’s time to take a closer look at what transpired in 2011 and what hope there is for 2012.

 

The team played harder than was expected.   They didn’t give in, whether because of a tough loss, a rough week, or a poor start to a game.  They’d battle back late in games, and bounce back from a tough loss with a solid win.  There were plenty of times late in the season where they did seem to be going through the motions a little bit, but they seemed to bounce back from that as well.  Hopefully 2012 avoids any long periods of being out of it and prevents the team from getting complacent.

 

The bullpen, while successful for some stretches of times, was mostly a failure.  Part of this was the trade of Francisco Rodriguez, part of it was the depression of Taylor Buchholz.   Part had to do with the starters rarely giving length, as was the main problem in April.   The Mets are aware of this problem, and with some good scouting and analysis, there are relievers out there that you can get for reasonable prices.   I would expect at least 2-3 new faces in the pen to compliment the ones that stay.  The Mets lost a lot of games late last year, and strengthening the pen will go a long way in 2012.

 

The starting rotation is what’s going to be the big deal in 2012.  This is what’s going to make or break the team as a contender.   Niese and Dickey are locks.  Mike Pelfrey is also pretty much a lock, although he does become a trade candidate as well.  I wouldn’t be against keeping Capuano, but I suspect he’s priced himself out of what the Mets want to pay him.  Johan Santana is supposed to be ready to go as normal during Spring Training, but I’d put the certainty of that at somewhere around 75%, and that may be optimistic.  Right now he’s penciled in, and it won’t be until February before we know if he’ll be able to progress normally towards an Opening Day start.   Therefore the Mets need a backup plan.  Adding Santana would certainly help, but it’s likely the Mets need to upgrade further.   Finding another quality starter and reassigning Dillon Gee to be depth for Santana could be the way to go.  However, Dillon Gee may have earned a major league job.   If the Mets can get to the regular season with a healthy Santana, and everyone else, having to send Gee to the minors to start the season would be a nice problem to have.  From there they could reexplore trading Mike Pelfrey.  Other teams will deal with injuries, and many teams could make good use of a guy that will throw 200 innings of slightly above league average value pretty consistently.

 

Then there is the offense.   The offense was very good last year, despite few home runs and a lot of injuries.  2012’s hinges on Reyes staying, but if he does the Mets offense again looks to be very potent.  The biggest concern would be if Pagan can shake off the bad defensive year, and if Duda can take a step forward out in RF.   Thole needs to improve as well, and there’s something to be said for having a veteran right-handed catcher to work with him.  The Mets are discussing moving the walls in a bit in right and left, which will probably help the home run numbers, although they may shrink the gaps a little bit.   It looks like the Mets should still have a top-flight offense next year, capable of dealing damage to opposing pitchers.

 

The Mets could be competitive next year.  A lot hinges on Reyes re-signing and Johan turning up healthy.  The Mets do need to revamp the bullpen, sign another starter, and address the bench, but those are all reasonable expectations.  It’ll be an interesting offseason, and hopefully it will be a launching pad for a good season to come.

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More Info on 2012 Mets Tickets

The usual cast of bloggers just finished up a conference call with Mets VP Dave Howard about the new ticketing schemes.  Not a ton of new info came to light, but some things were clarified and hinted at.

 

I asked about the dynamic pricing floor.    Specifically that the dynamic pricing will never dip below what a season ticket holder paid for the same seat in that section.   What was left unclear was if that meant you’ll never get a ticket less than $12 in sections 535/536 where season ticket holders sit, or if you’ll never get a seat less than $12 in the Promenade Outfield section which encompasses a large subset of the cheaper seats.

 

This is not a move towards being a small market team or anything.  The pricing was created off of a lot of data, meant to optimize revenue.   Adjusting prices should help them sell more tickets, and if the team remains competitive all year, the dynamic pricing will increase revenue.

 

Renewal date is coming earlier, although there will be a payment plan option.  Basically it seems the Mets want your commitment as early as possible, but are more flexible with the actual cash.  It was hinted at that you could see your 2013 invoices by this time next year.

 

Mostly there wasn’t a lot of specifics revealed in the conference call.  Dave Howard mentioned keeping the ticket fees within a reasonable percentage of the ticket price, and mentioned that Tickets.com offered best technological package and had a good relationship with MLB.  Went into the thinking of dynamic pricing without breaking down when prices would go up/down and what types of prices you could expect to see.    There will be more to come as season plans and individual ticket info is released.  I’d say the number one thing I took out of this is:   Buying tickets day of game is getting to be a worse and worse idea around sports.

 

For now, read other recaps around Metsopotamia.

Metsblog

Metspolice has a bunch today, keep checking back for analysis.

Amazin’ Avenue has a full transcript.

 

 

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Tendering A Contract to Mike Pelfrey

I’d be shocked of Angel Pagan and Mike Pelfrey are not given contracts this season.  They’re both due raises via arbitration, and the raises they get could possibly push the money they make beyond the value they’re likely to provide.  Of course, it’s very hard to form a direct relationship between money and performance.  Ultimately it’s about getting the most value, not the best price for that value.

 

Mike Pelfrey and Scott Boras agreed to a 3.925 million dollar contract last year.  It’d be pretty hard for them to argue for much more than that in arbitration off this year.  I could see them settling for a similar value, which is not the six million dollar figure some are talking about.   Four million is a pretty reasonable amount, and it’s also a very tradeable contract if the Mets were able to find something better or they had a prospect knocking on the door in May.

 

Mike Pelfrey has not had a very good season, but he’s also not had a horrible one and has pitched on his turn every time and accumulated 200 innings.  Most teams don’t have five guys that do that, which is where Pelfrey’s value comes in. All in all Pelfrey’s peripheral stats look very similar to his stats from last year, and his stats from the year before that.  A new pitching coach may help some, specifically with working on his sinker again,  but it’s probably a safe bet to expect Pelfrey’s numbers in 2012 to be somewhere between 2010 and 2011.  I believe that has value, not as an ace but as a contributing member of a rotation.

 

I trust Mike Pelfrey to work hard this offseason and in Spring Training to do what he can do to get better.  He may not be worth the full value of what he’ll get paid, but he’ll provide the team with innings and consistency.  A lot of teams would snap him up if the Mets released him, and that’s yet another reason he’ll be offered a contract.  Someone will be willing to give the Mets a player in return for Pelfrey, were the Mets to look to trade him this offseason, in Spring Training, or early in the season.  Pitchers are always getting hurt, and reliable starters are always a commodity.   Having more than you need, even if one’s a little more expensive, is being able to deal from a position of strength.

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Baseball’s Over, Time For Vegas

Disclaimer: I’ve truly left for the airport.  If the Mets do something crazy like play a 20 inning final game and are still playing at the time I’ve scheduled this, read this tomorrow.

 

I find it somewhat poetic that as the Mets threw the last pitch of their 2011 season I was arriving at JFK to board a flight to Las Vegas to gamble and drink the sorrows of the season away.   Last year I got married within a week of the end of the season and went on my honeymoon shortly after.  When I got back to paying attention to the Mets Omar and Jerry were gone and the Phillies and Yankees had been eliminated from the playoffs.

 

I’ll still be posting some, mostly scheduled stuff, but here’s what I want to happen while I’m gone.  The Phillies and Yankees are bounced in the first round and I can enjoy the rest of the playoffs when I get back from vacation.  Dan Warthen has been let go, in favor of someone that’s going to be better.  The Mets have worked out a deal with Jose Reyes, and he’ll remain a Met for a long time.   Johan Santana has pitched some in winter ball and has no set backs.

 

This probably all won’t come to be, but one can dream.  After I’m in Vegas I’ll be in San Diego for a couple of days.  It’ll be my third trip to that city and I have yet to see a game at Petco Park.  I’ve toured it though, and it’s a great place.  Look for randomly tweeted pictures from around Petco next week during the day.  I’ll return the following weekend for a bachelor party, a wedding, and my own anniversary before diving back into baseball.  It’s going to be an interesting offseason for the New York Mets this year.

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Only Two Games: Enjoy Them

There are only two Mets games left on the season.  Tune in and watch or listen to them.   There are only two and we’ll be missing the Mets before you know it.  The DVR’d episode of How I Met Your Mother will wait.

 

Watch Jose Reyes compete for a batting title.  See some of the young guys make a case for inclusion on the 2012 team.  Nick Evans looks like he’s got a better than fair shot at making the team next year.  Jason Pridie is finish strong, perhaps making a case as the 4th outfielder.

 

It’s not a given that Reyes returns.  This could  be his last two games.  Last night could’ve been the last time David Wright will have driven in Jose Reyes.  If you make it out to Citi Field, make sure to give him a big hand.

 

It’s a long way to April 5th.  There will be a lot of unpleasant stories.  A lot of “The Mets can’t do that” and “The Mets can’t afford that” type stories.  They’re starting already, but at least we have two games left to enjoy before all the rumor and speculation.

 

Let’s Go Mets!

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2011 New York Mets, Officially Losers

The Mets lost last night, ticking their losses total to 82 and cliched a third straight losing season.  Darn.

 

Never mind about the spoilers.  Phillies and Yankees are already in, so I say let the other chips fall where they may.

 

I had high hopes for this team, and I thought a .500 finish was pretty close to the floor.  Of course injuries are the ultimate wild card, which the New York Giants are finding out as well this year.

 

Which brings me to Lucas Duda.  I severely hope he doesn’t have a concussion.  Concussions are one of those things that doctors don’t fully understand, and that often have lingering effects months and years down the line that no one’s even sure about.   Duda said after the game he was told he didn’t have a concussion, and hopefully that’s the case.

 

Which brings me to my number one hope for the last seven games of the season; No More Injuries!

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Wall Adjustments Do Not Make Mets Better

I’ve never really cared about the walls at Citi Field.  They are what they are for both teams, and the height and distance have both positives and negatives. My biggest concern is that if they were to change them, that they would do something stupid like just draw another orange line, or construct a makeshift fence in front of it and mess with the aesthetics.  Sandy Alderson’s comments on the broadcast last night seem to suggest that they’ll put a lot of thought into how to meld the chances into the structure if they do make changes.  Alderson mentioned that they’ve done a lot of research on it, and with three years worth of data to look at they’re a little more confident in the decisions they’re reaching off the data.  Opinions about home runs and wall height are one thing, but I’m happy any decision that’s made will be based off hard data. 

Personally, I like the changes Randy over at The Apple suggested.  A row of seating in front of the wall in left, and a fence in right that turns the Mo’s Zone from a forgotten group area to a cool place to watch the game.  Being able to watch the game from what would literally be field level would be a lot of fun.  San Francisco has a similar type area out in right field of their ballpark. 

Still, the changes do not make the Mets better.  If the Mets move the fences in, they’ll move the fences in for the opponent as well.  Jason Bay will still need to hit the ball hard consistently, and his failure to do so for much of his Mets tenure is not because of the walls.  The Mets still have some work to do to make the 2012 team a contending team, and all moving in the walls does is change the configuration of the boxscore.  David Wright and the Mets still need to hit the ball over them more often than their opponents to win a lot of games.

A side effect of this is that we can no longer call it the Great Wall of Flushing if it’s changed, and I was starting to really like that nickname.  I thought it was a fun inside joke.

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More Nice Things About David Wright

A lot of this season my focus has been on just how awesome Jose Reyes is, but let’s not forget our Captain third baseman. David Wright is also a great player, and I feel it’s going a little unnoticed by those in the fan base that scream for change for change’s sake without stopping to appreciate what we have.

David Wright owns, or is in the process of owning, so many of the Mets offensive records.  He’s 8th in games played, 1st in doubles, 4th in home runs, 2nd (by 12) in RBIs, 6th in stolen bases, 4th in walks, first in total bases, 2nd in runs and third in hits, although he may never get to first in those last two as he’s chasing teammate Jose Reyes.  He trails only Darryl Strawberry and Mike Piazza in slugging percentage.

His 2007 season was one of the best offensive seasons in Mets history, and he did everything one player could do to try to will the Mets to the playoffs.  He did the same in September of 2008.

Year G PA R H 2B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP Awards
2007 160 711 113 196 42 30 107 34 5 94 115 .325 .416 .546 .963 149 330 14 AS,MVP-4,GG,SS
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/19/2011.

He absolutely owns left-handed pitching. (To compare, Albert Pujols has a only marginally higher 1.085 OPS against lefties and that might just be the difference in slugging from playing in a slightly smaller park)

I Split G PA AB H 2B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB
  vs LHP as RHB 505 1165 984 336 84 51 176 159 157 .341 .433 .592 1.025 583
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/19/2011.

He played through pain with a broken back for a month earlier this season and still managed a game winning home run here and there.  To that note, David Wright owns the Mets record for game-winning RBI.

Since returning from the disabled list he’s hitting .289/.364/.479 with 8 HR and 39 RBI in 54 games.  That projects to 24 HR and 118 RBI over a full season and is just a handful of walks and maybe a home run or two off his career average. He’s got 42 strikeouts, which would be 123 over a full season, or much closer to the 115 he averaged over his first four full seasons.  All that’s factoring in that he just had a rough 10 days or so both offensively and defensively.

Defensively he’s been a very up and down player.  He went a month after returning from the DL where he looked amazing, making great catches, and great throws.  Other times he goes through phases where he let’s balls get by him, and misses first base on his throws.  I’m not going to break out any fancy statistics here, because defensive statistics are spotty in the absolute best case scenarios, and Wright hasn’t collected enough data to form any coherent opinion.  There’s just too much noise in the data, but I’ve seen him play serious Gold Glove caliber defense, and I know he can do it again.

David Wright is a historic Met and in the prime of his career.  He’s part of the 2012 solution and is a pleasure to watch every day.  His value to the Mets franchise is just another reason another team is not going to blow Sandy Alderson away with an offer for him.  The Mets need more franchise defining great players, and trading away one of them is not the way to do that.

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New York Mets Oktoberfest

The Mets are having their annual Oktoberfest on September 23rd. It looks like decent fun, although I’d pass on the lederhosen.  If you pay attention at all, I’m almost as big a beer fan as I am a Mets fan, so things like this are right up my alley.

 

The Mets Oktoberfest is pretty good.  The food menu features Wiener Scnitzel, Beer Braised Bratwurst & Onions, German Style Fried Potatoes, German Potato Salad, Coleslaw, Soft Pretzels and a delicious Cookie Platter for dessert.  Of course, it doesn’t list the beer menu.   It’d be a shame if it was just the normal stuff off the Citi Field Beer List.  There needs to be at least a couple of Oktoberfests there, and a local variety like Brooklyn Brewery’s would be a great place to start.  Unfortunately, I’m busy next Friday and will be unable to go.  If someone is going and doesn’t mind reporting back to me, send me an email at ceetar@ceetar.com.

 

The price for the Oktoberfest party at Citi Field is $54 to sit in the Big Apple Reserved and get a free ticket lanyard.  I’m not going to quibble too much about something that includes free beer, but that’s $12 more than the Big Apple Reserved seating is for Premium games.   Normally, group sales get a discount on pricing.  The Social Media night the Mets held was $41 for the same seats, and including $18 of food and beverage credit.

 

I think the Mets could make more of this event.  This is New York, and as Sandy Alderson said about our farm systemeverything should be top of the line, not middle of the pack.   One example to follow might be the Houston Astros Oktoberfest.  The Astros event is two hours prior to the game, whereas the Mets event starts an hour early and goes until the 7th inning and conflicts with the game.   It’s a full-fledged party with polka music, folk dancers, and your own Astros beer stein!  Included are 12 2oz pours of 12 different beers available; many of them Oktoberfests and pumpkin ales.

 

The Astros event is separate from the game, so they allow you to buy a ticket to any section.  Obviously tickets in Houston are much much cheaper than tickets in New York, but they even discount them for you by about 40%.  They do tack on another $20 for the Oktoberfest package, but that’s still a great deal considering it’s an admission to a two hour party and you get at least a pint and a half of beer, and your own stein.  You could get all this, AND a baseball game, for as little as $27.

 

I’d love if the Mets followed the Astros example in 2012.  I know the Bullpen Plaza isn’t big enough for a full on party, but there are other options.  They could close off the Caesar’s Club for one day before the game, or block off a suitably sized section of the parking lot.   Another option would be to have a Mets Oktoberfest away game viewing party.  Have the event when the Mets are on the road.  The Caesar’s Club certainly has enough televisions to  tune to SNY.   I already own a Mets beer stein purchased the conventional way, but if a 2012 design was created, I’d certainly buy another one.

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What Do You Need To See From Jason Bay?

Last week I posed a tongue-in-cheek relationship between how many home runs Jason Bay hits this season, and what record the Mets will be predicted to finish with next year.  He’s up to 12, good for an even 81-81 prediction.


He’s on another hot streak, where he’s actually driving the ball.  It’s good to see, but we’ve also seen it before.  He still seems to find ways to go into 0-30 stretches after getting hot, although the length of time between hot streaks seems to be lessening.  I can’t help but wonder if there were lingering effects of the concussion that even he wasn’t, or isn’t, aware of.


Regardless, the Mets could really use Jason Bay to be at least a contributing power threat next year.  I think if he can reach 15 home runs, and finish out September with numbers approaching his career averages on the month, that we can at least have some faith he’ll be useful next year.  His career line stands at

Year G PA AB H 2B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
9 Seasons 1127 4758 4065 1113 227 202 705 583 1086 .274 .368 .493 .862 125
and his September numbers so far.
 
Split G GS PA AB H 2B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
Sept/Oct 7 6 25 24 7 2 2 4 1 5 .292 .320 .625 .945 15 .294 175 150


What do you need to see from him to not go into 2012 feeling he’s a black hole in the lineup? Is it completely hopeless?  Do you need him to rack up a couple more doubles? Five more home runs?  Less strikeouts? Avoid any double-digit o’fers?