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Disappointment Over A Good Mets Trade

There is no doubt that the trade Sandy Alderson is in the process of pulling off is a good one. We still aren’t aware of some of the finer details, but the Mets are adding two top prospects, John Buck, and a third minor leaguer, for R.A. Dickey, Josh Thole, and a minor prospect. Dickey is one of the best pitchers in the league, and he still may be a top of the line starter for a couple of years, but the Mets are adding players that may still be having a positive impact on the team six years from now. It’s certainly possibly they may not flourish, particularly the much farther away Noah Syndergaard, but the probability favors the Mets in that regard.

 

The problem is the immediate future. Travis d’Arnaud, the catcher the Mets are receiving, will probably be up to the majors very soon, if not on Opening Day. John Buck will likely be on the team in the interim, and probably shift to a backup role when d’Arnaud gets called up. Together it’s unlikely they provide as much value as R.A. Dickey, and that means a team already under .500 is probably taking a step back before pushing forward. That’s disheartening for most fans, whose number one concern is the current roster of players on the field. Many of us would rather root for the guys we have to succeed, particularly when they’re great ones like Dickey, than reinvest emotion in new guys that are merely promising to be great. Ultimately though what the fans want doesn’t matter because winning is what brings in the fans, the attention, and the money. It’s not out of the question that d’Arnaud plus the pitcher the Mets replace Dickey with is worth more than Dickey and Thole would’ve been, but it doesn’t seem like a good bet for 2013 nor the type of improvement the Mets need to climb out of 4th place if it does happen.

 

That’s where the disappointment comes in; this trade does not make the Mets better in the foreseeable future. Sure, it raises the probability that they are better down the line, but it’s also important that this player is going to be cheap and under team control for a long time. Fans can forgive losing star players, whether homegrown ones or adopted ones, when the team placed in front of them excites and captures their attention, but so far I’m not so sure the 2013 version is in position to do that. Especially if we don’t get an impact bat for the outfield and instead go with Lucas Duda, Kirk Nieuwenhuis and a platoon of Mike Baxter and 2013’s version of Scott Hairston. We heard a lot about the present value of contracts with the David Wright negotiations, and that concept applies to winning seasons too; a winning season in the present is worth more than one in the future. Good process only gets you so far, and there are plenty of inherent risks between now and then that could sabotage the plan. A clearly improved 2013, even if it ultimately falls short, could create the excitement that draws fans in, fans that will continue to come in 2014. The message lately has felt like it’s not worth investing in this team yet, which keeps ticket sales and revenue down; revenue that could make the job of creating a winner in 2014 easier. It’d be unfair to assume Sandy Alderson’s going to take the rest of the offseason off at this juncture, meaning he could still improve the team and the outfield, but it’s hard to see the type of players coming that give this team a “If everything breaks right” chance at the playoffs.

 

As always with the Mets these last three years, the money question is always looming. Partial sales, which included Sterling money invested in the Mets, helped pay off loans and seemed to at least point the Mets in the right direction. Allusions were made to a payroll in 2013 at or above 2012’s number. The deferred contracts and negotiations seem to point in a different direction, although it is still possible that Sandy Alderson spends most of that money on players that make the Mets better. It’s never a good idea to expect much direct truth from a general manager, that’s not their job, but given the message that the actions are sending it feels pretty hard to do more than guess at the plan. The Mets appear to be in a holding pattern and I just hope they get clearance to land before they run out of gas.

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Captain Wright, All-Time Met, Forever Met

Lots and love and support for Shannon Forde at the fundraising dinner last night. 1000 people that have crossed her path in the 18 years she’s worked for the Mets showed up to show their support, and not least among them Sandy Alderson and Jeff Wilpon.

 

Perhaps that’s why the news of David Wright’s re-signing didn’t come down and get finalized until the middle of the night; they were busy with something more important. It doesn’t matter which day of the offseason it gets done, and now that it’s seemingly done we can rejoice and celebrate what’s likely to be one of the Mets best players, perhaps the best, ever.

 

I’ve been calling for them to name Wright captain for years, and while it’s never been a thing of huge importance it’d be nice to see Wright’s new blue jersey come with a ‘C’. (I’m not at home right now, but we’ll get Wright photoshopped in a blue jersey with a ‘C’, I promise) I’m not asking him to take on a new role, or give him new responsibilities. Naming him captain is simply another way to celebrate him, and we should make a point to celebrate our best players when they’re on the field performing for us.

 

Wright is a Met. He’s always been a Met. He will always be a Met.  60 years from now Wright will be showing up at Alumni events and our kids and grandkids and beyond will be there to cheer him. They’ll compare him to their new heroes, and the third basemen that come after him. Players that likely haven’t even been born yet.  Wright will recount stories about playing with Cliff Floyd, Mike Piazza, Carlos Delgado and others. He’ll reminisce about at bats against legends like Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez and all the superstars in the league now plus the ones that will emerge over the next eight years.  No other Mets player will ever wear the number five again. He’s destined for the left field wall, and maybe one day the Hall of Fame and even a statue. There could be a Wright plaza at the next stadium.

 

What we have here in front of us is one of the Mets all-time greats, in his prime, to root for for years to come. This is greater than wins and losses, greater than owners and uniform colors and ticket prices. We’re going to talk about these times, this next legendary Met, for decades and decades. Enjoy it. Believe it.

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Opening Day Ticket Price Hike A Troubling Sign

The Mets spent more time and energy and research on ticket prices than you did. Their research suggests this is the best way to maximize revenue and push customers into committing to packs and getting more people into the ballpark for the other games. That doesn’t make it suck any less. The problem is it’s Opening Day and the demand is still high.

It’s one thing to say you’re annoyed with it in November and not going to buy, but once Spring Training kicks in and we hear about people planning to finally get out to the park again and see live baseball many people are going to be looking to find tickets. I’d be surprised if the stadium looks less than 95% full.

It’s a business first for the Mets, and it’s hard for me to get too up in arms at any specific tactic to maximize profit on the high-demand times, but it doesn’t bode well for the future. It’s not just baseball either, or just the Mets. Fans in this same market complained and moaned about personal seat licenses in the NFL, but the Giants and Jets both sold a ton of them. Movie tickets are going up, and if you think $63 for 3-4 hours in the sun watching baseball is rough take a look at the prices of some of the Broadway plays.

Revenue sharing money from MLB is going up too, and it’s only going to lessen the percentage of revenue that ticket sales is. As that happens more and more teams are going to make decisions to milk every last dollar out they can, with no regard to actual turnstile attendance. Take a look at the Marlins fire sale. The Marlins flat out don’t care about the fans, but the franchise itself is making a ton of money from other sources. Actual fans in the park aren’t at the top of their priority list.

It’s unfortunate. Many fans remember the days before the late nineties when payrolls skyrocketed causing ticket prices to follow suit when going to a baseball game was one of the most affordable activities in the city. As prices have rocketed, fan salaries haven’t followed suit and the economy crashed creating less disposable income in general. As a result everything is crazy expensive. I can’t ever legitimately afford to sit in the good seats at a game in any of the other three major sports, and every year it seems I get further and further away from the Mets field as well.

Dynamic pricing was designed with this Opening Day situation in mind. It was always a way to maximize the revenue of the top games, no matter when they happen in a season and was never really meant to lower prices to bargain basement levels to get the place packed. The Mets know, as everyone in sports knows, that take advantage of the few high-demand games you have, and let winning take care of packing the park for the other ones.

Unfortunately for us, the baseball market in New York is huge. The big Mets games are going to sell, and as they do better and better, those games are going to sell too. There’s no boycott that’s going to work. Clearly you shouldn’t back down from voicing your opinion at some of these frustrating aspects of fandom, but know that the only person you hurt by not going is yourself. It’d be great if we could drive market value, but the truth is we don’t.

I sucked it up and bought Opening Day tickets. I want to be there, it’s pretty much a holiday in my eyes, and I’m not yet willing to miss it. Maybe I skip another game or two depending on my situation, but I’m going to check my stubbornness at the gate about the pricing and go. Maybe I’m just resigned to the idea that everyone is out to take every last cent from me, but once Opening Day gets here I’m going to be excited no matter what I paid.

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Reporters and Analysts are Only Guessing

Hope everyone’s on the recovery path from Sandy. I finally got my power and heat back yesterday afternoon, and managed to fill up my car with gas, so I guess it’s back to business as usual here.

 

We’ve got General Manager meetings coming up in baseball and we’ve passed the point of options being picked up and exclusive negotiating windows with expiring contracts, so it’s open season on free agents.  There isn’t a ton to write about that’s not speculation and rumor, but there are outlets that are obligated, or feel obligated, to put out posts and columns.  Sometimes I suspect less is more when it comes to news and reporting, but that’s a thought for another time.

 

Remember that there are always surprises, that things aren’t always what they seem, and that unexpected trades and acquisitions happen all the time. No team is more active than the Mystery Team.  So try not to take anything you read too seriously regarding the hot stove season. When there are no games being played it becomes very easy for one well-read writer to muse about a player being a good fit for a team and it to catch wildfire and be talked about all over the world. The Internet is often one big game of telephone when it comes to these things.

 

One person could write about Cody Ross being a good fit for a team, and before you know it there are a dozen blog posts breaking down how the lineup will look with him in it. The shear quantity of talk seems to lend credence to acquisition even though the team in question might not even have talked to the player’s agent.  There are hundreds of different ways a GM can put together a roster, and it’s never exactly how anyone guesses.  Although if you want to take your own stab at guessing, Amazin’ Avenue’s AAOP would be a good way to go.

 

Some people enjoy this speculation and enjoy copying spray charts for a slugger onto his projected new team’s ballpark, rearranging their divisional predictions, and comparing lineups across the league.  They see it as a giant jigsaw puzzle that can be assembled in many different ways, and take joy out of finding the best picture. Don’t take this enjoyment for anything more than the time-killing exercise that it is.  Taking offseason speculation too seriously is how you end up pissed at a general manager or owner for not acquiring a player 10 years ago that they may not have even had a chance to sign.

 

Specifically with the Mets, no one really knows what Sandy Alderson is planning for this year, or the future.  It’s not hard to find articles about keeping Wright, trading Wright, offering him lots of money and only offering him just enough to hedge against failure.  You can find columns basically asserting that the Mets will trade R.A. Dickey anytime from now through the trade deadline and also mentions of signing him to multiple years beyond this one.  You can find columns suggesting the Mets will make big moves, if not big signings, this offseason, and others telling you to expect roughly the same team back.  Although I suspect the people telling you the Mets won’t do anything and you should ignore anyone that’s going to make more than two million are just trying to narrow the focus of the work and speculation they have to do this offseason.

 

To me, the only thing certain about the Mets in 2013 is that we can’t be certain about the Mets in 2013.

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New Minor League Baseball Team: Hillsboro Hops

I’ve never considered buying a baseball cap or shirt from a team not associated with the Mets until now.  The Yakima Bears will relocate and become the Hillsboro Hops, who nail it with the name.  Oregon is the second biggest hop producing state in the country and hop, as in short hop or bad hop, is a common baseball word as well.

That’s the Oregon mountain, Mt. Hood, above the Hill in Hillsboro, which coincidentally is also the name of a hop grown in the region.  I can’t wait to see what the mascot looks like, who very easily could be named Hood.

 

Because it’s single-A baseball, they presumably will have some silly in-game entertainment.  Maybe a mascot race between hops, barley, water and yeast that ends in a collision…and a beer?

 

The new park hasn’t been named yet, but supposedly there are no breweries currently in the running. That’s disappointing, because having the Hillsboro Hops play at Deschutes Field would double down on awesome.

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What’s Going On In Metsopotamia?

Well, The Mets last two good center fielders had really good games in the playoffs last night.

 

The 7 Line is having a Mets pumpkin carving contest.  I don’t usually carve my pumpkin until the night before to keep it fresh, but I might have to make an exception this year.

 

Rumors fly about how fast the Mets may or may not look to extend David Wright and/or R.A. Dickey.  I think there’s a rumor for every possible permutation.  I’ll just wait and see what happens.

 

Some Mets prospects are playing in the Arizona Fall League.  I don’t pay close attention, but you can check out Metsminorleagueblog.com for specifics.

 

Speaking of Arizona, it seems like the Diamondbacks are willing to consider trades for just about any one of their outfielders.  Given that the Mets desperately need outfielders a flooded market gives the Mets a larger supply to choose from.

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That’s a Wrap: Top Optimism for the Offseason

As with most seasons, the ending is bittersweet. I’ll miss Mets baseball, but the ending means they’ll be back to even next time we watch, dreaming and hoping on 2013.  It’s a long month of playoffs before much will happen with the Mets in terms of real signings, trades and acquisitions but that provides the perfect backdrop to spend some time reflecting on what went right in 2012 and gives us hope.

 

It’s all doublespeak right now, but many things seem to point to the Mets wanting to keep David Wright and David Wright wanting to stay.

 

R.A. Dickey may win a Cy Young, and is cost-controlled for next year.  Sure he’s got an injury, but it’s not likely to affect his 2013 season.  He’s been amazing as a Met and I suspect we have at least another year of that.

 

Ike Davis shook off his injury-shortened 2011 and a disastrous start to have a pretty terrific last four months.  Those four months weren’t without their own issues at times, but if he could simply extend those four months through 2013, he’d be a huge part of the Mets offense.

 

Bobby Parnell was the best Mets reliever this season, taking a nice step forward and really doing some very good work.  Best Mets reliever is a low bar this season, but Parnell had the best ERA on the team, minimum 20 IP.

 

Johan Santana‘s no-hitter will forever be the highlight of 2012.  He dealt with some bumps and bruises and then tailed off pretty badly, but his first half suggests that he’s still capable of being a good pitcher.  There is some hope that with the period of rest this offseason without rehab and trying to build up his arm he’ll have a strong 2013.

 

Jon Niese pitched a full and complete season, and was very very good.  According to Baseball Reference, Niese’s best pitcher comparison is Gio Gonzalez.  Niese will only be 26 next year, and has a very reasonable contract going forward.   I don’t advocating trading talented pitchers, but any way you look at it, Niese is extremely valuable.

 

Matt Harvey and the Mets farm system is showing a lot of promise on the pitching front.  In his limited appearances this year, Matt Harvey had the best ERA on the team outside of Bobby Parnell.  60 innings isn’t a ton, but then again it’s almost roughly how many innings the average reliever pitches all year and we make all sorts of judgments off that.  The Mets have a couple of other guys that look like they could contribute valuable innings next season, and that should hopefully means the Mets have a pitching strength in 2013 and can focus on improving the offense.

 

The Mets won 74 games.  Things are clearly not all rosy right now, but that’s not to say they’re without hope.  These are just a few obvious examples, but there are plenty of players that will come out of the blue next year to contribute.  Things aren’t nearly as bleak as some might make them out to be this offseason.

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Beer Selection at MetLife Stadium

@sixpoint Brewery tweeted this on Sunday.

Nanokegs are between section 126 & 124 concourse at MetLife

This is awesome.  Sixpoint nanokegs are the perfect complement to sporting events.  To have a wide selection of them AND a dedicated stand is terrific for beer-loving sports fans.  It was great to see Sweet Action available to everyone at Citi Field this year, but that’s just a tease compared to this.

 

I sincerely hope we get something like this at Citi Field next year.  Especially if it has Diesel.

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Hope For Next Year and Ticket Contest Winner

Congratulations to Amanda for winning the final pair of Mets tickets this season.  Thanks to Seatcrew, the no-fee ticket marketplace, for providing them.

 

Let’s break down some of the optimistic submissions on what in 2012 we should be thankful for looking forward, starting with Amanda’s (and many others) response.

DAVID WRIGHT!!! :)

 

Yes, he hasn’t had a great second half, but David Wright is worthy of at least one smilie face this year. He’s having one of his best season ever, is playing great defense, and is about to become the franchise leader in hits.  Don’t go anywhere David.  Ever.

Todd writes:

It’s a toss up between Matt Harvey and Ike Davis. I really feel that Matt Harvey is going to be the future ace of the team, with a little more grooming he and Dickey can be on of the best 1-2s in the bigs

I already mentioned Ike Davis.  Matt Harvey has definitely looked good though.  It’s a pretty limited sample size, but it’s hard not to dream on what this power pitcher can do for us next year.  A couple of people mentioned the rotation.  It’s definitely looking like a strength for the 2013 Mets right now.

 

Those were the big responses.  As much as that highlights some optimism, it also accents the places the Mets need to improve: bullpen and outfield.

 

 

 

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Mets Ticket Giveaway via Seatcrew

It’s time for the final (from here) Mets Ticket giveaway from Seatcrew.com, The free social marketplace where fans buy and sell tickets without surcharges.

 

This week we’re talking about two tickets to see the Mets play the Phillies on Monday September 17th to start out the final homestand of the year.

 

To be eligible you have to have a seatcrew.com account as well as follow Ceetar on Twitter.

 

Instead of the normal prediction contest, let’s do something different.

 

Tell me what event or player from the 2012 Mets gives you the most hope for the 2013 season?

 

Send your answers to
contest@ceetar.com with the subject line ‘Optimistic Mets Fan Giveaway. My choice is going to be Ike Davis.  He started so slow, but the adjustments he made and the power he contributes looks to be invaluable for the Mets going forward.  You’re welcome to reuse my answer if you like.  I’ll pull a random name from the hat on this Monday morning, so you have until Midnight on Sunday the 9th to get your answer in.

 

I’ll announce the winner and then give you my thoughts on the submissions and the future.

 

You can follow Seatcrew on Twitter, or like them on Facebook here.