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These Mets Are Not Finished

The Mets have been bouncing around between just good enough and mediocre for most of the season now.  They’ve been unable to take that next step to great, but they’ve also never fallen off the cliff towards bad and it’d be foolish to read into their current state, again, as the beginning of the end unless you’re more concerned with your preseason predictions being correct than with how the Mets are actually doing.

 

There are plenty of times that if the season were to end the Mets would’ve been in the playoffs.  Some as recent as four games ago.  Losing three to a division rival is a rough way to start the second half, but it’s hardly the end of the world.   The Mets are actually only 4 and 5 against the Braves this year.  Those first three games are as important to the standings as these last three.  The Mets will clearly need to made some adjustments, play better, and have some better luck to win more games. These are all things the Mets have proved able to do.  R.A. Dickey and Johan Santana are human, apparently.  Everyone slumps.

 

Everyone streaks too.  Santana and Dickey will have other stretches of dominance.  Other players will get hits, pitch well, catch the ball and beat the opposition.  The Mets will win again.

 

If I were to judge this Mets team at this point, I’d say it might be a 50% chance they make the playoffs.  If the season happens to end while they’re on a hot streak, they’ll likely be in.  If not, they’ll likely miss out.  The margin of error may be that small, which was also the case in the series in Atlanta.  The Mets number one goal for the second half is to create situations where they have a margin for error.   Multiple run leads when the bullpen is struggling.  Less walks so that one error or poorly defended ball doesn’t lead to runs.  Most importantly, getting into playoff position and building a lead so every loss isn’t a possible elimination event.

 

 

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Rotation After All-Star Break

All-Star Break coming up after the Cubs series and I think it’s worth a thought about how Terry Collins will line up his rotation coming out of it.   There are a couple of things to consider here, including getting Dickey as many games as possible, the impending division match-ups, and the two pitchers coming off shoulder surgery.

 

So I’d definitely start R.A. Dickey the first game back against the Braves.  This also ensures he’ll pitch against division-leading Washington in the second series.  I’d then pitch Jonathon Niese and Dillon Gee.   Give Johan Santana the extra days off, which amounts to skipping a start, and have him start the series against the Nationals on Tuesday, 11 days after his start tonight.

 

No one’s asked this question that I’ve seen, and maybe it’s because no one dreamed Santana would throw this many innings, but I’m starting to wonder if the Mets would prefer he didn’t throw 200 of them this year.  He’s on pace for about 196, and this is probably the last opportunity the Mets will have to give him a little break before a pennant race.   Starting with the Nationals series, the Mets will play 20 games without a day off across five cities and three time zones.

 

Skipping Chris Young the first time through after the break gives him some rest as well, and allows the Mets to have Santana, Dickey and Niese lined up to pitch five of the six July games against the Nationals.

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2012 NL East: A Race Down to the Wire

The Phillies and Braves got worse, and the Mets, Nationals and Marlins got better.  This season the NL East could finish with the first place team being less than 15 games ahead of the last place team.  Last year the Marlins finished 30 games behind the Phillies.

 

The top of the division shapes up to win a few less games, and the bottom of the division will win a few more.  This will bridge the gap between them and bunch everyone up in the middle.   Injuries and other things can affect this of course, but the Mets and the Marlins figure to be falling in the middle somewhere.    Maybe there’s some doubt that some of the bottom teams can win the division or that the Phillies will finish last, but it’s definitely going to be a tighter race this season.

 

These teams play each other in half the season’s games.  The head to head matchups are going to play a huge role in determining who wins the division this year.  The margin of error this year may be that much less that a good record against teams within the division make up the different between winning and falling short.  Even just an 11-7 record against the Phillies would make up four games in the standings.  If I’m right about the division being bunched up, it’s really going to intensify the rivalries between some of these teams.  That can only be a good thing that leads to teams setting up their rotations so we get more pitching duel matchups.  All five teams will go into September with a lot of games to play against each, meaning most of the NL East teams may still control their own destiny in terms of making the playoffs.

 

It’s going to be a fun season.

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Hope, And The Hardest Time To Watch The Mets?

Optimistic or not, the best chance for the Mets to be serious contenders or fade out of it is coming this weekend.  Fans often aren’t competitors, and give up before it’s seriously over.  They make judgement based on what they believe will happen, and based on what has happened already, or based on small samples or bad losses.  That doesn’t mean it’s true, or that the Mets are eliminated, but right now the signs do seem bleak as the Mets have had dozens of opportunities to climb back into the race and haven’t.

 

So with the chances slim and the pessimists laughing at you for holding out hope while the Mets still have their own destiny in their hands, each loss becomes a nail in the coffin of this season, each opportunity to gain a game missed hurts all the more.   The Mets aren’t competing for a wild card spot although they’re not eliminated either.  The Mets are one losing streak from the season being all but over, but right now they’re a tease of maybes and what-ifs.  The Mets could host Atlanta seven (or six or eight) losses back in the wild card race, and sweep the series to get to four losses out with 50 games left to play, which is certainly on the fringes of the race.  They’ve played the Braves well this season so it wouldn’t be shocking to see that happen.

 

It’s too early, perhaps only days too early, but too early nonetheless to give up on the season.  Still, many see the high probability of the Mets staying home in October and start thinking about the future.  They opine about where Murphy should play in 2012, and if he should be getting more time at 2B or RF right now.  They think about which players will be here, and which won’t.  Who will be a free agent?  Which teams should we root for in the playoffs? (that’s easy, the Carlos Beltran Giants)

 

All that discussion is certainly fair given how the Mets have looked lately.  But they’ll go through a stretch where they look good again too.  Maybe it comes at the right time and they play the Braves tough.  Maybe it doesn’t and they’re all but eliminated on Sunday.  There will be plenty of time for player development discussion when the rosters expand and in the offseason.  It’s a long offseason.  You may believe it’s better that the Mets get knocked out now to save us the heartbreak later, but the offseason is long enough as it is and I’ll cling to that small glimmer of hope as long as I can.  Stranger things have happened than teams like the 2011 Mets suddenly making the playoffs.

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Climbing Back Into the Playoff Race

With that four game sweep of the Reds the Mets have inched closer in the playoff race.  They are now 6.5, 6 losses, behind the Atlanta Braves for the Wild Card, and 3.5, 3 losses, behind the second place Arizona Diamondbacks.   What makes those numbers even less daunting is that they play both those teams.

 

They have nine games left against the Atlanta Braves, who they’ve already beaten in five of their previous nine games.  If they could play well against Atlanta, that number of games behind would shrink fast.  The Mets have six games against Washington and Florida before playing the Braves next weekend.  The Braves also have six games against those same teams.  It’s shaping up to be a huge series for the Mets, one that could really make or break the season.

 

I would like to see the Mets play better than the Braves during these next six games.  Gain one game before going head to head, so that they are five out.  Then they have the possibility to push it to four games with a series win, or really put the pressure on with a sweep and go to merely two games behind them.  Right now the Braves aren’t playing well and just lost Brian McCann, and the Mets are playing well and some of the guys that were slumping are now hitting.

 

It’s time to start surprising some people.  Not just “Hey, this team isn’t a disaster” surprise, but a “Hey, this team is actually _good_” surprise.  Let’s Go Mets!