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Adrian Gonzalez: Secretly Good

via Baseball SavantThe Mets signed Adrian Gonzalez, a former great player, hoping that his 2017 was the aberration and not the start of a steep decline. They liked the idea of a veteran player providing time for Dominic Smith to step up and take the job, as well as have a solid bench piece if they did give the job to Smith. Gonzalez is the type of guy a good team has on their bench to provide depth and options.

 

Gonzalez had a good night in Cincinnati in a hitter’s ballpark against one of the worst pitching staffs ever, but overall the results haven’t quite been there, though there is a lot of good signs when you look at the numbers, specifically in Statcast.

 

His exit velocity is the highest it’s been in the Statcast era (since 2015), and he has his best barrel%, basically a measure of good contact and angle for home runs, too. He’s actually had more barrels this year than all of last year.  His expected slugging and expected wOBA are also way above what they actually are, and his hard hit percentage is way up.

 

He’s also posting a higher walk rate than he has since 2010. He’s making good contact, less weak contact, pulling the ball in the air more, and hasn’t popped up yet, according to Statcast.  I’m not sure how accurate that last one is, as I seem to remember one, but no matter how you slice it Gonzalez is making good contact in ways that generally lead to extra base hits. He’s just gotten very unlucky so far.

 

So expect a lot more from Gonzalez, as he’s actually been better than the numbers suggest, and after last night even those are looking better. Definitely don’t play Jay Bruce at first over him, though getting Wilmer Flores in there against lefties occasionally wouldn’t be a bad idea. The Mets might have to make a tough decision with Dominic Smith being ready to come back up later this season, but until then Gonzalez has been doing a good job.

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I’m Not Dead, Think I’ll Go For A Walk

Losing Jacob deGrom for an unspecified amount of time is bad no matter how you cut it.  Losing one singular player, even perhaps the best player, is not catastrophic in baseball.  It’s way too soon to close the casket on this season, or act like we’re going to close the casket, especially when we don’t even know deGrom’s timetable.  Let’s give it a few days at least? The Mets had two of the best pitchers in baseball, but the good news here is that they still have one. Noah Syndergaard is still awesome.

 

It is still a huge blow though, the Mets depth in pitchers was, and is, pretty large, but none of them have stood out. It’ll need to be more than Thor, maybe some decent Wheeler and Vargas starts, and then hope. Between Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman, Steven Matz, and even Matt Harvey and some of the AAA depth, there’s some potential for quality innings and competitive starts, the Mets just need to find it.

 

The real issue right now is the bats, and getting more offense from some of these guys. Especially with another quality pitcher down, you’d like to score even more runs to account for it, and I suspect the Mets will hit more than they have lately, though the lineup isn’t without it’s own concerns, particularly at catcher.

 

So losing deGrom is a concern, but it’s way too early to panic and there is still a lot of decisions to be made, games to be played, and wins to be had. If you still believe the Nationals are the best team in the division, the Mets still have a nice lead. The Braves and Phillies might be playing well for a month, but there’s no reason to think these teams are this good, even if they were underestimated in the offseason.  It’s time to hold serve, and get back to some winning baseball.  We’ll know more about the holes we need to patch, or repair, in a few weeks.

 

 

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Forgiving Asdrubal Cabrera

Getting thrown out at third was a dumb mistake by Asdrubal Cabrera tonight, especially with Michael Conforto at the plate, but after cooling down a little I have to forgive him.

 

The Mets have been really aggressive on the basepaths this season. They’re going first to third and second to home every chance they get. They’re always moving, always making the defense make plays, keeping them on their toes. It’s been working, and I’d hate to see one mistake blunt what’s been working. Perhaps two mistakes if you want to count the play at the plate earlier, but I don’t, I liked that send.

 

Coming into today Asdrubal Cabera was 9th in Fangraphs  BsR, baserunning runs above average.  Todd Frazier, Yoenis Cespedes, and Amed Rosario are also in the top 36 of 190.  Cabrera knows it was a bone-headed move. Mickey Callaway knows it, the entire team knows it.

 

You take the tough loss, and you move on. The Mets are fallible, unfortunately. but unsurprisingly. Luckily, they still have a solid lead and 15 more games against the Nationals. Keep winning series, winning baseball, just winning in general. Things will be fine.

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Citi Field Beer Review

I did not have time to scour the entire stadium yesterday, as I spent most of the pregame time at Mikkeller NYC and then had a game to watch, so there’s a chance I missed something, but I don’t think so. Finding good beer shouldn’t be something hidden.

 

First off, prices. Beers are up to $11.25 for a 12oz and $14 for a 25oz. That’s a lot. They were $7.50 when Citi Field first opened 10 years ago.

 

At Big Apple Brews the selection has been paired down over the years. It’s always been an Anheuser Busch-Inbev curated list, but now there’s less of the variety.  Mostly the light lager stuff you see everywhere: Presidente, Leffe Blond, Stella, Franzikaner, Shock Top, etc. Followed by a bunch of AB-InBev’s choice of beers from their high end line of acquired craft breweries. These are the beers they’re trying to push nationally, with a touch of local because Blue Point is under that umbrella. Their Mosaic Session Ale is a good ballpark beer.

AB-InBev "craft"

So where’s the real craft? In previous years there was a stand behind home plate on the promenade, with a few drafts and a cooler. Now it’s a Goya stand. There were a few things scattered around the park, but the two main places I found were the “Empire State Craft” stands. The one that’s existed in the left field corner on the field level remains, and there’s a new one just to the third base side of the promenade behind home plate.

This isn’t what I’d call a great selection or variety, but it’s roughly what’s been there the last few years. I had LIC’s Higher Burning and Mikkeller’s Henry Hops, and I enjoyed both. Hopefully as Mikkeller gets up and running they can sneak a few more cans into the stadium as the season goes on. I also wasn’t given the option of a cup for my beer, as I had in the past.

 

The Mikkeller NYC brewery just outside the Right Field gate, outside the stadium, was the real winner. I’ll have a more detailed review of that place coming up.

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Opening Day Beer of the Game

Today’s beer of the game is the new Henry Hustle from the new Mikkeller NYC right here at Citi Field.

This place is great. Full review to come. The beer is excellent as well.

Piney dank bitterness and some citrus aroma.

It’s quite bitter with traditional IPA flavors, as American Pale Ale’s often are. Prickly and drying mouthfeel, but lots of fruit grapefruit, mango, and pine. Been a little while since I’ve had one with this character.

It’s very good, but intense for at a ballgame. I’d drink this at home to entertain me between innings.

Check this place out, it’s great.

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Seth Lugo Not a Huge Surprise

Seth Lugo making the Mets Opening Day roster is not actually a surprise. Just take a look at these first two Google search results.

Mickey Callaway came in with a reputation for curveballs, Seth Lugo has a good curveball. Dan Warthen was reportedly not a huge fan of curveballs. A change in regime is can rewire the assumptions we make about how the Mets will handle a given situation, and this is a good one. They may not admit it, but managers and coaches have favorite players too–guys they believe in more than others. Given what we know, it’s not surprising that Lugo’s curveball makes the roster.

This isn’t to say that the team is down on Zack Wheeler either. Lugo’s repertoire already more closely resembled with Eiland and Callaway want to do. Zack Wheeler may simply need some more reps in adjusting to the new schema, and we could certainly be seeing him sooner rather than later, given how brittle pitchers can be.

The most important thing here is that the Mets have (almost) made it to Opening Day with more than five options for the rotation, and have some talented depth that gives them the flexibility to replace ineffectiveness, not just injury. It’s a good way to go into the season.

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Will The Mets Pitchers Stay Healthy?

photo by CeetarMost of the Mets starters were injured last season, and have a history of injury. You know this. I know this. Sandy Alderson knows this. Sandy added Jason Vargas. He’s a pitcher that pitched well for half a season last year after he missed time due to injury in the years prior. Turns out most pitchers have an injury history, and trying to figure out which ones will be injured next year is a fool’s errand.

 

I would’ve gone after Yu Darvish. If you think you need another pitcher, get the best one.  That’s not to say Darvish is without flaws or concerns, or that he best represents the guy you still want on the roster in 2022, but he’s certainly more polished than Jason Vargas.

 

The Mets pitching depth is deep though. They’ve got 9 or 10 guys of various quality on the roster right now even if some of them, like Rafael Montero, aren’t filling us with a ton of confidence. The Mets season was derailed mainly by pitcher injuries last year, and 2018 again hinges on that health. Can these pitchers stay healthy? Are they more risky than someone who’s been more of a workhorse in recent memory?

 

Is there such thing as a healthy pitcher? There’s a common thought that all pitchers have some form of elbow damage, as the very act of pitching is damaging to a human arm. A healthy pitcher is just a pitcher that’s hasn’t yet gotten hurt enough to not be effective. This led me to ask myself, how many pitchers that stayed healthy in 2016 also stayed healthy in 2017?

 

Not very many. There were 73 pitchers that qualified for the ERA title in 2016. 33, or about 45%, of them also qualified in 2017. That’s not a great conversion rate, and it gets worse if you bump up the minimum from about 163IP to 180. 37%, 17 in 46, of those pitchers also pitched 180 in 2017. Of course this includes two pitcher deaths, which is typically outside the scope of arm injuries, but even if you drop those guys it’s still only 39%.

 

That’s just one year though. Let’s look at the three years prior to 2017 to try to rule out random fluke injuries that may skew the sample. Was the general health of a pitcher between 2014-2016 predictive of health in 2017? There were 123 qualifying pitchers for those three years, but only 50 of them qualified in 2017, so not particularly comforting.

 

The shocking conclusion here is that pitchers get hurt. A lot. There’s very little reliable way to predict which pitchers will make it through the entire season, or which will end up being ineffective due to nagging injuries that don’t land them on the DL but still keep them from being their best.

 

There are some guys that have been reliable, but you never really know if next year will be the year they’re not.  Max Scherzer has been reliable for years and years but last year he did experience some hamstring pain, and some neck pain. He still pitched 200 of the best innings of his life, but it’s not a stretch to imagine that those were the first cracks of an aging pitcher who’s led the league in innings pitched for a while.

 

The Mets pitchers were injured. They’re starting 2018 with no restrictions and are ready to pitch, and they have a lot of talent in those arms. It’s almost a given that they won’t stay that way for long, but the Mets have made coaching and medical changes aimed at keeping them healthy, and that very well may be the better gamble over acquiring other pitchers that have been healthier in recent history.

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Frazier Signs and the Mets are now Contenders

The Mets signed these two guys this offseason

Todd Frazier rounds out the Mets offense and helps solidify them as legitimate contenders in both the NL East and the National League at large. This will be the fourth consecutive season that the Mets will be seriously considered among the top teams in baseball.

We’ll look back on that 11 day winning streak in early 2015 as the start of this stretch of Mets teams. Last year got derailed pretty early, but some better health and some better luck and now some better players will make the Mets in 2018 a team to pay attention to.

Todd Frazier isn’t a super star, but he’s posted good BB% rates the past two years and can hit for power. He’ll be a solid presence in the lineup and if his BABIP comes back up to career norms he could even have a great season. He also plays excellent defense, something that will make the Mets 2018 infield markedly different than 2017 where they basically punted defense.

It also creates a lineup that might have zero holes, giving opposing pitchers no respite. Rosario was a highly regarded prospect, so there’s hope that his first full season will be a good one. The same goes for Dominic Smith, who might still get more seasoning in AAA if Adrian Gonzalez has anything left to contribute. If he doesn’t, we’ll see Smith sooner than later. The rest of the guys should contribute in various degrees, and hopefully Conforto comes back early and Cespedes stays healthy for some really dangerous middle of the order production.

There are plenty of health questions, maybe even more health questions than most teams have, but the Mets have done a lot to try to mitigate injuries in their revamping of some of the training staff and Mickey Callaway. They’ve built in some depth, and hopefully all that pays off for a successful 2018. It’s going to be fun.

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Neil Walker is the Best

The Mets need another starting infielder, and probably at second base. There have been various options discussed, and some of them are even intriguing, but the more I look at it the more it feels like Neil Walker is the best choice for the Mets.

Unless the Mets are going to pull off a Brian Dozier trade, something they might not have the right prospects/pieces for, Neil Walker is actually one of the better second basemen. His wRC+ of 114 was 8th best last year of second basemen with at least 400 PA, behind guys mostly unavailable. He moves up to 6th if you include 2016. His defense has been solid and he’s got an excellent walk rate which is something the Mets need to mix in to balance against players like Flores, Rosario, Lagares and d’Arnaud who have a poor BB%. This is also an argument for getting Brandon Nimmo plenty of playing time, but let’s save that for another time. He also doesn’t require the Mets to expend any prospect resources to acquire him.

 

Of course, health is one of the concerns. He’s 29th in plate appearances among second basemen over the last two years, and you’d like a little more than that. Though he was still 11th most valuable according to fWAR, so even if he’s going to get a DL trip or two, you’re still getting your money’s worth, especially if you have competent backups that can hold down the fort, like Wilmer Flores. All players are somewhat of an injury risk, and it’s hard to say Walker would be more prone to one in 2018 than any of the other options the Mets might pursue. It’s possibly that these are signs that Walker’s body is breaking down with age, but it’s also possible they’re outliers and he’ll play 140 or more in 2018. Since he’s been here, the Mets have a good idea about his physical shape and medical records.

 

Tim Dierkes at MLB Trade Rumors predicted two years, twenty million for Walker, which is only a smidge above what the Mets paid for him last year. The banter from Heyman, et al, is that he’s looking for a four year deal, but there might not actually be a market for that. Even at three years for 10-12 per Walker is probably a good sign for the Mets, somewhere he’s already played and been comfortable and successful.

 

There are a few teams looking for a second basemen, but not a ton, and no one seems to be beating down Walker’s door at the moment. He’s not a sexy pick for the Mets, as there seems to to be some reluctance to return parts of the same 2017 team that underperformed, but Walker was a part of the successful 2016 club as well, and he’s definitely one of the better players for a position the Mets have a clear need at.

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Mets Path For Return Is In Front Of Them

The Mets are not “back” in the race. They’re not relevant again and the ship is not righted. They beat up on a bad team, but they also managed to drop a winnable game in the mix.

 

Still, those wins count. This is a three game winning streak, and the road to actually climbing back into things is in front of them. The Nationals come to town next week for four crucial games, in which the Mets almost have to win at least three of, but first they get three against the talented but slumping Chicago Cubs. The World Champions.

 

It’s a crucial test.  If they can win the same amount against the Cubs as the Nationals win against the Braves, and then take three of four head to head, they move to seven games back. That’s not great, and even 5-2 would still have them two games under .500, but it’s something. It’s prolonged progress chipping away at the Nationals’ division lead.

 

They’d still be up against the wall, but if they can prove that can and will play better than their chief rival, there’s reason to re-ignite some hope for this team after all.