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Your Preseason Prediction Was Just a Guess

It’s amusing how whenever a team approaches the winning percentage you predicted preseason, they’re “right where they should be.”  A week earlier, or a week later and you could be completely wrong.  A week ago the Mets were four games over .500.  Were the people that predicted .500 so completely off base last Friday?  Of course, maybe the Mets were playing over their heads.  But why is them winning four games in a row over their heads and losing four isn’t under their feet?

 

It was pretty easy to see the Mets were capable of being a winning team with a couple of things breaking right, and a losing team with some key injuries or bad luck or under-performing.  Every season for every team is like that.  If you predicted the Mets to be at .500, which it’s still not guaranteed they’ll do when it’s all said and done, did you predict it with a healthy David Wright?  Did you think Jason Bay would be this bad?  Carlos Beltran that good?  That the Mets would trade Beltran and K-Rod?  That Murphy would hit .320?  That Josh Thole would take a step backwards?

 

Right now the things that went right have been balanced with things that went bad.  But all it takes is a lucky bounce, or a Jon Niese injury, or a couple more home runs from Jason Bay for that prediction to look way off.  18 games into the season the Mets looked like a bad team, and those that predicted them to be in last were excited to be right.  A week ago the Mets were flying high four games over .500 and predictors that guessed 88 wins were starting to feel excited about the return of David Wright and the emergence of Lucas Duda propelling the team to those heights.    Now they lost a couple and the .500 guessers are out in full force, citing how the Mets keep returning to .500 like a yo-yo because they’re just not that good.

 

So stop applauding yourself for roughly guessing how many wins the Mets will finish with, or any other team.  Likewise, you’re not “smarter than the experts” because you selected an already really good pitcher to pitch really well and contend for a Cy Young.   Some guesses are certainly better than others, but at best they’re just guesses.  This same rule applies to radio hosts and sports show analysts as well.  So stop gloating.

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Hope, And The Hardest Time To Watch The Mets?

Optimistic or not, the best chance for the Mets to be serious contenders or fade out of it is coming this weekend.  Fans often aren’t competitors, and give up before it’s seriously over.  They make judgement based on what they believe will happen, and based on what has happened already, or based on small samples or bad losses.  That doesn’t mean it’s true, or that the Mets are eliminated, but right now the signs do seem bleak as the Mets have had dozens of opportunities to climb back into the race and haven’t.

 

So with the chances slim and the pessimists laughing at you for holding out hope while the Mets still have their own destiny in their hands, each loss becomes a nail in the coffin of this season, each opportunity to gain a game missed hurts all the more.   The Mets aren’t competing for a wild card spot although they’re not eliminated either.  The Mets are one losing streak from the season being all but over, but right now they’re a tease of maybes and what-ifs.  The Mets could host Atlanta seven (or six or eight) losses back in the wild card race, and sweep the series to get to four losses out with 50 games left to play, which is certainly on the fringes of the race.  They’ve played the Braves well this season so it wouldn’t be shocking to see that happen.

 

It’s too early, perhaps only days too early, but too early nonetheless to give up on the season.  Still, many see the high probability of the Mets staying home in October and start thinking about the future.  They opine about where Murphy should play in 2012, and if he should be getting more time at 2B or RF right now.  They think about which players will be here, and which won’t.  Who will be a free agent?  Which teams should we root for in the playoffs? (that’s easy, the Carlos Beltran Giants)

 

All that discussion is certainly fair given how the Mets have looked lately.  But they’ll go through a stretch where they look good again too.  Maybe it comes at the right time and they play the Braves tough.  Maybe it doesn’t and they’re all but eliminated on Sunday.  There will be plenty of time for player development discussion when the rosters expand and in the offseason.  It’s a long offseason.  You may believe it’s better that the Mets get knocked out now to save us the heartbreak later, but the offseason is long enough as it is and I’ll cling to that small glimmer of hope as long as I can.  Stranger things have happened than teams like the 2011 Mets suddenly making the playoffs.

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Random Stuff About the Mets

This is from last week.  Why is there a phantom NYY on the out of town scoreboard?

There are plenty of parts of Citi Field that remind me of Shea Stadium.  Being able to watch fans wind their way into or out of the stadium is one of them.

 

I always love taking random shots of things and areas around the stadium.  Citi Field doesn’t create standing pools of water like Shea did, but here’s a part that does accumulate some water.

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Climbing Back Into the Playoff Race

With that four game sweep of the Reds the Mets have inched closer in the playoff race.  They are now 6.5, 6 losses, behind the Atlanta Braves for the Wild Card, and 3.5, 3 losses, behind the second place Arizona Diamondbacks.   What makes those numbers even less daunting is that they play both those teams.

 

They have nine games left against the Atlanta Braves, who they’ve already beaten in five of their previous nine games.  If they could play well against Atlanta, that number of games behind would shrink fast.  The Mets have six games against Washington and Florida before playing the Braves next weekend.  The Braves also have six games against those same teams.  It’s shaping up to be a huge series for the Mets, one that could really make or break the season.

 

I would like to see the Mets play better than the Braves during these next six games.  Gain one game before going head to head, so that they are five out.  Then they have the possibility to push it to four games with a series win, or really put the pressure on with a sweep and go to merely two games behind them.  Right now the Braves aren’t playing well and just lost Brian McCann, and the Mets are playing well and some of the guys that were slumping are now hitting.

 

It’s time to start surprising some people.  Not just “Hey, this team isn’t a disaster” surprise, but a “Hey, this team is actually _good_” surprise.  Let’s Go Mets!

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Carlos Beltran Beats The Phillies

Last night I watched Carlos Beltran play right field and beat the Phillies.  Even though he went 0-4, you can tell he’s going to be a great fit on that team.  He makes the team so much better, and can provide the offensive boost they really need.

 

There are so many great Carlos Beltran moments with the Mets that it’s impossible to name just one.  He’ll be sorely missed regardless of how the team does.  Carlos Beltran was a truly Amazin’ Met and one of the greatest players in franchise history and one day he just might be a Hall of Famer wearing a Mets cap.

 

Good luck in San Francisco Carlos.  Maybe we’ll still see you again at Citi Field this year..

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Is Rex Ryan Hurting the Mets?

Currently the Mets are squandering an opportunity to climb back into the playoff race by not capitalizing on a struggling Atlanta Braves team, but whether or not they get closer it seems like some interest in the Mets could be waning as the season goes on, and I blame Rex Ryan.

The last couple of years Mets fans in their negativity have looked for any reason to give up on the team and root for next year.  Fans were doing it as early as Spring Training this year, proclaiming the season as hopeless and getting mad at people that suggested maybe they could actually be a winning team.  Now that the NFL has ended it’s lockout and is set to resume as normal, there is something else for Mets fans to focus on.  Rex Ryan’s antics become more enticing than Daniel Murphy’s defense.  Potential free agent signings for the Jets or Giants seem to become more interesting than what the Mets will or won’t do with Carlos Beltran at the deadline, or who will slip through waivers.  The health of various injured football players becomes more intriguing than Johan Santana’s rehab schedule.

I think the Mets still have plenty of interesting baseball left in them, and I suggest you don’t let preseason football, which most of you profess is pretty boring, get in the way of actual sport.  There will be things to watch on this team that will be exciting, games that will be a great deal of fun to be at, and players that are a marvel to watch play everyday.  If the Mets are out of it you can switch channels on Sundays, but don’t miss out on some fun baseball just because the Giants and Jets haven’t disappointed you yet this year.

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Welcome Back David, We Missed You!

Today the Mets get back their unofficial captain and star third-baseman.  After all, how can the Mets take on the Goliath challenge of making the playoffs without their David?

 

The Mets playoff chances appear to be hanging by a thread, despite still technically controlling their own destiny as far as the Braves are concerned.  While they are playing just well enough to not fall out of it, they’re not gaining any ground either.  Another week without gaining ground possibly spells the end of Carlos Beltran as a Met, but looking to sell at the deadline or not, the Mets will get reinforcements.  David Wright returns tonight, and it looks like the road is marked for the return of Johan Santana.  I wouldn’t rule out Sandy Alderson making a trade that can help the Mets, both this year and in the future, at the trade deadlines.  Perhaps it’s unlikely, but you never know what’s going to be out there.

 

We’ll start with David Wright.  He’s tearing up Florida in the minors, and here’s hoping he’ll continue to tear up Florida in the majors this weekend.  It’ll be nice to have him back. Everyone time someone mentions the Mets third baseman I instinctively think David Wright, and Daniel Murphy’s name starting with the same letter doesn’t help.

 

So welcome back David Wright, and here’s to a great end of the season for you.

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Give Carlos Beltran Your Love

Carlos Beltran is one of the all-time greatest Mets.  I know he doesn’t have a ring, but it’s not for lack of ability or clutch hitting.  He’s got a 1.3 career post-season OPS over 21 games.  He’s near the top in almost all franchise leaderboards.  He’s a leader in the clubhouse and cares about his team, and the community.  You couldn’t ask for a better guy than what we’ve gotten from Carlos Beltran over these last seven years.

It seems practically inevitable that he’ll be traded by the trading deadline even if many of us, emotionally, don’t want him to go.  With just two home games remaining before the trading deadline, time is growing short to thank Carlos Beltran for all he’s done.

So cheer when he’s announced. cheer when he makes a great play.  Cheer when he gets a hit, and when he draws a walk.  If he hits a home run, give him a curtain call that lets him know just how much he’s meant to us over these years. 

And if August first comes and he returns to Citi Field with the rest of the Mets?  Keep cheering, because he deserves it.

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No One Could Catch The 7: Reyes is Back!

Tonight’s Mets Lineup: Reyes-SS, Turner-2B, Beltran-RF, Murphy-3B, Pagan-CF, Bay-LF, Duda-1B, Paulino-C, Gee-RHP

Jose Reyes is back on the lineup, and none of the National League could catch him in hits while he was gone. 

I repeat, Jose Reyes is back at the top of the Mets lineup where he belongs. 

Lookout Cardinals.

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Appreciating the Fans, 1986, and Explosions at Citi Field

Pyrotechnics Night at Citi Field Friday was a bummer because the Mets lost, but everything else was pretty nice.

I’ll start with the 1986 stuff, because this is the 25th anniversary and while the Mets aren’t having a single day, they’ve been sprinkling in cool stuff all season long.  They’ve done this one before, but they did some trivia stuff between innings where they had the players come out to award the prize.  Of course, that made everything else pretty easy.  When Rusty Staub appeared in the list, even if you didn’t know the answer to the question you knew it had to be him since he was there at the park.

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