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Tendering A Contract to Mike Pelfrey

I’d be shocked of Angel Pagan and Mike Pelfrey are not given contracts this season.  They’re both due raises via arbitration, and the raises they get could possibly push the money they make beyond the value they’re likely to provide.  Of course, it’s very hard to form a direct relationship between money and performance.  Ultimately it’s about getting the most value, not the best price for that value.

 

Mike Pelfrey and Scott Boras agreed to a 3.925 million dollar contract last year.  It’d be pretty hard for them to argue for much more than that in arbitration off this year.  I could see them settling for a similar value, which is not the six million dollar figure some are talking about.   Four million is a pretty reasonable amount, and it’s also a very tradeable contract if the Mets were able to find something better or they had a prospect knocking on the door in May.

 

Mike Pelfrey has not had a very good season, but he’s also not had a horrible one and has pitched on his turn every time and accumulated 200 innings.  Most teams don’t have five guys that do that, which is where Pelfrey’s value comes in. All in all Pelfrey’s peripheral stats look very similar to his stats from last year, and his stats from the year before that.  A new pitching coach may help some, specifically with working on his sinker again,  but it’s probably a safe bet to expect Pelfrey’s numbers in 2012 to be somewhere between 2010 and 2011.  I believe that has value, not as an ace but as a contributing member of a rotation.

 

I trust Mike Pelfrey to work hard this offseason and in Spring Training to do what he can do to get better.  He may not be worth the full value of what he’ll get paid, but he’ll provide the team with innings and consistency.  A lot of teams would snap him up if the Mets released him, and that’s yet another reason he’ll be offered a contract.  Someone will be willing to give the Mets a player in return for Pelfrey, were the Mets to look to trade him this offseason, in Spring Training, or early in the season.  Pitchers are always getting hurt, and reliable starters are always a commodity.   Having more than you need, even if one’s a little more expensive, is being able to deal from a position of strength.

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Does The Mets Organization Only Have Five Starting Pitchers?

With the exception of Chris Young, who was quickly replaced by Dillon Gee, the Mets starting pitchers have stayed healthy all season and not missed a start. (In fact, they’re the only ones to not miss time)  Now that Niese will need to miss a start or two, and doubleheaders galore will force the Mets to use some more pitchers, where are they?

 

Rosters expand on Thursday, the first day they’ll need another pitcher, and yet first we’re going to see 40 year old Miguel Batista, and then R.A. Dickey is going to come back on short rest to pitch Friday.  No Chris Schwinden, no Mark Cohoon.   I know there aren’t a ton of healthy starting pitching prospects in the higher portions of the minor leagues, but why do we have to be subjected to fodder like Batista?

 

On the other hand, I’ll be in the ballpark Thursday to see Batista’s first, and perhaps last, Mets start on what’s his 11th team.  He’s actually going for his 100th win and 1200th strikeout, which I guess is something.

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Johan Santana to the Bullpen?

The Mets starting rotation has been performing pretty well.  No one’s an ace, but mostly they’re keeping the team in games and pitching pretty well.  Johan Santana appears to have taken the next step towards return, but there are a lot of questions revolving around that.  Will he be the dominant Santana we’ve come to know and love, or some lesser pitcher while still recovering from the shoulder surgery?  Which pitcher would he replace in the rotation, and will he be able to go deep into games, or will he be on a strict pitch count?

Maybe it’s Johan Santana who should go to the bullpen.  In the best case we’re talking about five weeks of games, and maybe six or seven starts.  He’ll barely have time to really get into a routine and build up some arm strength.  Pitching out of the bullpen would allow him to work on his game and proving his shoulder is repaired without having to really push it.  He’ll be able to build muscle and arm strength and work on his mechanics without the strain of 100 pitches at a time.  They could work out a schedule and not pitch him too often or back to back days or whatever works best for him.

He has done it before.  When he first came up with the Twins he spent a lot of time in the bullpen, and while that was before he was established it’s not exactly a foreign concept to him, he’s pitched 77 games out of the bullpen in his career.  Let the beat writers joke about the Mets 23 million dollar middle reliever, it’s still better than the Mets 23 million dollar Ace who’s still experiencing soreness in his shoulder.  Or..

Many feel Francisco Rodriguez is a lock to get traded before his option vests.  It’s certainly possible, and it does seem like the Mets have a plan in mind with him as they certainly don’t seem to care about his option or use.  What about using Johan Santana to close?  Closers don’t have a whole ton of value, which is part of the reason you don’t need an overpaid closer clogging up the roster, but you do still need to replace the quality innings Rodriguez gives you and what better way than someone like Santana?  You could say that Santana is not used to getting ready to pitch that fast, but he’d have all of “Spring Training” to get used to it, and with a closer you often have a couple more minutes.

After all, the goal with Johan is to get him pitching again. He needs to build up his arm muscles again and recover from having his shoulder sliced open.  He doesn’t necessarily need to throw 40-50 innings to do so, 20-25 in a more limited capacity could be just fine.  He’d be able to test out his shoulder, get some time under his belt with major league innings, and shut down at the end of the season healthy and ready to rev it back up in Spring Training like normal.

A lot of this could depend on how the Mets are doing in the playoff picture when Johan Santana comes back.  On the other hand, it’d be foolish to rely on Johan for anything this year at this point in his rehab, so if he does indeed come back, the Mets don’t need to desperately shove him into the rotation and demand he win every game.  Let him ease himself back into pitching, and take what value you can get while keeping him healthy and strong.  He’s too valuable to future years to push him too hard coming back from surgery.

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Back to .500

The Mets came inches away from their third straight shut out as Teixeira’s home run just missed Beltran’s glove.  In fact, that would’ve been an easy fly out in every other ballpark in the majors.

You can't see the new building in this picture because it's blocked by that historic structure Babe Ruth once played in...wait, what?

Now the Mets are back at .5oo and 22-22 on the season.  They played poorly early on, but despite injuries have really settled down.  They’ve suddenly got a very potent bullpen.  That’s not an exaggeration either, their bullpen has been as good as you could want for quite a while now.  Beato’s back to try to continue his scoreless inning streak.  Jason Isringhausen, if they considered relievers for the award, would be on his way to comeback player of the year.   Francisco Rodriguez remains one of the best closers in the game, and may actually be the best this year.

 

The bullpen is meaningless if the starters are going to let games get away, but they haven’t been doing that.  The starters have been keeping them in games.  The offense is crippled without David Wright, Angel Pagan and Ike Davis, but if they can continue to play the way they’ve been playing they’ll find themselves in a very favorable position as those guys trickle back into the lineup.

 

Terry Collins and Sandy Alderson both deserve some credit for what’s gone on.   Collins has this team focused and playing good baseball, and Alderson hasn’t been shy to shuffle the roster around and reward guys that deserve playing time; like Justin Turner.

 

I said yesterday I like the way the Mets match up this weekend, and I stand by that. The Mets can hit Burnett tonight and Pelfrey is a better pitcher than Ivan Nova.  Another series win, and perhaps a sweep, is within the Mets grasp.

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The Mets: Good Lately

The Mets got off to a poor start in 2011: The bullpen looked pretty bad and the starting pitching was struggling.  The weather was cold and rainy and they couldn’t buy a clutch hit.  Over the last month the Mets have made some roster tweaks and been faced with some injuries, but they’ve also played pretty well.

They are 9-6 in May.  They are 16-11 since the seven game losing streak that was over a month ago.   If they were to continue at that 16-11 pace they’d actually end up winning 91 games.  It’s not a torrid pace in any way, but they win more than they lose.  They keep themselves in games, and by extension, in playoff races. 

It is probably unrealistic to expect the Mets to continue this pace without David Wright and Ike Davis, but there are a lot of other things not going the Mets way either.  Will Jason Bay ever start hitting?  Will Justin Turner, Daniel Murphy, or a year older Ruben Tejada provide adequate production for a stretch while the other Mets are on the mend?  Will Dickey pitch better, get a better grip on the knuckleball as the weather warms up, and at least keep the Mets in the games?  Did Mike Pelfrey get his “one bad month” out of the way in April this year? 

There are also many unknowns.  I don’t buy into speculation about what the Mets are going to do, rosterwise, with this team.  Personally I’d be more shocked of Reyes was traded than if he wasn’t.  Alderson has to recognize how good Reyes is, how hard it is to find a good shortstop, and how much the fans love him.   Alderson has also claimed that he’ll be able to do what needs to be done around the trading deadline to add players, and the potential for the Mets to get better there exists.  Then there is Johan Santana recovering from his capsule tear.  It’s unrealistic to rely on him coming back, but that doesn’t mean we can’t hope and wonder.  He’s on track for recovery now to return in July or August.  Whatever the chances are that he doesn’t experience any setbacks, the possibility that you could add a pitcher of his talent and intelligence to a rotation in September is enough to make me smile. 

The Mets look and feel like a team. They’re probably not the best team or most talented team in the league, but lately they’ve been winning games, playing good defense, getting some hits when they need them and capitalizing on mistakes made by the other clubs.  No team looks all-powerful in the league and if the Mets can continue playing good baseball, get guys healthy, and make some good roster moves there is no reason why they can’t remain competitive all season. 

Maybe they’ll even hit a grand slam.

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Statistics Rising

You can make yourself crazy over-analyzing baseball.   A week ago the Mets rotation wasn’t pitching deep into games, the bullpen couldn’t get anyone out, and people were all set to write the Mets off.  Now they’ve run off a stretch of five wins in a row, the pitchers have pitched well from rotation to bullpen, and they’re scoring runs in all sorts of ways from home runs to errors to simple clutch hits.

 

The last time a major New York sports team other than the Mets won a home game was last Sunday the 17th when the Rangers and Yankees did it.   Since then the Rangers and Knicks both got bounced from the playoffs and the Yankees are 3-3 including dropping the last two home games against the White Sox with each of their two closers, Mariano Rivera and Rafael Soriano, blowing saves.

 

An aside on the Yankees: For a team as old as they are, it has to be a little worrisome that they’ve postponed so many games already doesn’t it?  They’ve played far fewer than anyone else, and in fact only played four games last week.  Those three games will have to be made up, and it’ll eat into days off and rest time for some of these veteran players.

 

You could make excuses about the quality of the Mets opponents, but I could make excuses that they were a bloop or a lucky bounce away from winning some of those games they lost too.  Regardless of who is in the other dugout, the Mets are playing good baseball right now.  When this team is playing well, they’re capable of beating anyone.  The question has always been if they’re going to stay healthy enough to have the chance to play well, and can they sustain the success longer than the slumps they might go through when guys are struggling?

 

Also worth noting is that if the only reason the Mets are winning is because they’re playing bad teams, why can’t the Phillies beat the Diamondbacks?

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Keep Doing That

Swing and a Miss

The Mets starting pitcher, R.A. Dickey pitched as well as, or better than, the Astros pitcher Bud Norris.  Dickey pitched eight innings and gave up four runs, for a 4.5 ERA on the day, and Norris pitched six innings and gave up three runs, also equaling a 4.5 ERA.   I’d give the tie-breaker to length, especially since relievers are generally not as good as starters.

The Mets also out-hit the Astros. The Mets got 12 hits, with three extra base hits, and the Astros got eight, with three extra base hits.

Of course, when all was said and done the Mets made a variety of mistakes and lost the game.  The Mets cannot afford to lose these games that are practically handed to them, but if they continue to pitch and hit like they did today, they WILL win most of those games. What they need to do is identify what they’re doing wrong that’s giving them such a low amount of runs per hit, and why the opponents hits seem to be worth so much more. 

Not bunting with only three precious outs left on the first pitch with one of the fastest guys in the game on first base would also go a long way towards not losing.

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Letters to the NL East, Part 5, Dear Mets…

Letters to the NL East, Part 5.

 

Dear Beloved New York Mets,

 

Get angry.  Seemingly everyone is against you and no one believes in you, but just because circumstances have worked against you recently doesn’t mean you’re out already for 2011.  What do the experts know?  It’s finally time to actually play some baseball, something you’re all pretty good at.  It’s time to surprise some people.  I’m going to go out on a limb and predict a division winner, with the clinching game coming on Sunday September 25th the Phillies on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball.  Bobby Valentine will call the action.

 

David Wright says you need to practice beating teams and getting that swagger and confidence back.  Do it.  The first nine games are against the Marlins, the Nationals, and the Phillies.  With the Phillies you get Hamels who pitches poorly against the Mets, Blanton who’s not very good, and Roy Halladay. It’s the perfect opportunity to get off to a fast start, get Bay and Paulino back, get guys healthy and on track, and start doling out punishment.

 

Remember, as much as the media wants to write about the Mets being in disrepair, the financial mess, and all the recycled story lines about grit and soft players that they’ve used in the past, if you give them a different story to write they’ll run with that too.  People still write about the 1986 team, of which it’s the 25th anniversary of, because their story of beating up on the league and being unapologetic about it was fun to write.  So give the writers a story about redemption and revenge.   Cast the team, and Wright, as David versus Goliath.  Treat everyone as the enemy and don’t let up.

 

The best thing about this team is it’s depth and balance.   There aren’t a lot, if any, bad players on this team.  No Jeff Francoeur, no Gary Matthews Jr.  There are a variety of relievers that could’ve made the team that are waiting around in Port St. Lucie, and there are seemingly a half dozen different outfield prospects that could show up at any given time.  Sure, no one ran away with the second base job, but no one threw it away either.  Daniel Murphy and Justin Turner and even Ruben Tejada are right around the corner, or at the end of the dugout, should Emaus not be the guy.  Your worst pitcher is either a second year prospect who could come close to 200 Ks, or a former All-Star who pitched to a sub-4 ERA in 66 innings last year in returning from injury.

 

You are not going to be easy to beat this year, and with some discipline and health, you could make it a really exciting season.   Remember, no one gets a handicap for winning the division last year, or for having the best team on paper.  It’s time to play the games.

 

Your Excited Supporter,

 

Optimistic Mets Fan

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Letters to the NL East, Part 4, Dear Phillies…

Letters to the NL East, Part 4.

Dear Phillies,

 

Is Chase Utley enjoying his rocking chair?  Let me warn you now, you’re going to say “Once everyone gets healthy” a lot while the Mets and Braves distance themselves from you in the division.

 

Good job offering Cliff Lee the most money per year, and keeping him from the Yankees.  You see, they’d score runs for him.  I find it hard to believe that you are  better off with Lee than with Werth.  Ibanez’s power seems to be vanishing and he’s aging quickly.  Rollins hasn’t really been good in three years, he’s batting third in the lineup yet has a .258 AVG, and .320 OBP over the last three years.  You’re using whatever warm bodies you could find for right field and second base.

 

You’ve got great pitching, but none of them are good hitters.  Also, every year dozen

s of great pitchers have sub-par years, get hurt, or get no run support.  Will Hamels rising walk rate make him ineffective? Will Oswalt’s back hold up? Roy Halladay threw 750 innings over the last three years, not including Spring Training.  That’s a lot of wear and tear on an arm.

 

Your a talented team, more talented than your fans deserve, but you don’t have a lot of depth and aren’t built to handle injuries.  But injuries happen, and if you play Wilson Valdez for any extended period of time you might as well shoot yourself in the foot now.

 

And that bullpen! No Lidge, you’ve got Contreras closing for now because you can’t trust Madson.  Contreras, who’s 10 among active pitchers in wild pitches and 20th in errors, is who you’re going to trust in pressure situations.  The bullpen wasn’t good last year and it doesn’t look any better.  What’s your plan? Burn out the starters and hope they hold up all season?  You can only push an arm so much before it breaks.

 

You know what they say…the bigger they are, the harder they fall.

 

Your Bitter Rival,

 

Optimistic Mets Fan

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Letters to the NL East, Part 3, Dear Marlins…

To read previous letters, go here.
Letters to the NL East, part 3
Dear Florida Marlins,
Like most  embarrassing franchises, you didn’t do anything real exciting this offseason.  Oh sure, you signed John Buck, a very nice catcher, but he’s not going to fill the void left by Uggla in his contract year. You paid too much for Javier Vazquez, who was basically terrible last year and was looking for a cozy place to pitch himself into oblivion, and you won’t even get draft picks for him if he does have a good year and bolts.
Kudos though for spending more money this year, if only slightly.  Obviously we all know it’s an attempt to garner a little bit of interest going into a new stadium in 2012.  I can’t help but wonder if you even care how well the team does this year, as long as it looks like it’s going to be better in 2012.  The Mets set attendance highs leaving Shea Stadium, but it looks like the Marlins may set attendance lows leaving Sun Life Stadium.  The only question is if you’ll have more fans in the stands than names for the stadium.

You did a good job revamping the bullpen, which from what I can remember was terrible.   Still, you look a team with some nice players, some passable prospects, and some just not very good ones.  In the end, you’re just boring.  you’re good enough to win games,  not bad enough to be schedule-fodder, but there isn’t much hope for anything else.  At least it doesn’t look like you’ll drag us to Puerto Rico this year.

Your bored “rival”,

Optimistic Mets Fan