Last week Ted Berg wrote this piece about optimism in response to a different optimistic post by Patrick Flood. Scratchbomb retweeted it, noting that optimism is not a sin.  I like the phrase, and it’s good to see others jumping aboard the optimism bandwagon and joining the club (see the sidebar to join the Optimistic Mets Fan Club on Facebook), whether it’s just front office philosophy or not.

Ted and Patrick wrote about optimism mainly in regards to the Mets offseason moves, and sabermetrics.  A lot of discussions these days get twisted into an “everything Omar did was bad and Alderson is a sabermetric genius and won’t make those same mistakes.”  Sure, Omar didn’t rely on advanced statistics as much as Alderson does, but as Ted suggested, the Mets aren’t in a position to lose 120 games.  There were flaws in this team, even without the injury issues, but the team is talented, promoted minor leaguers that have contributed and will contribute in the future, and is in a good position to add pieces in the future as need be.  Moves are not necessarily easier to be positive about just because they are made with a larger emphasize on advanced statistical analysis and the Chris Youngs of 2011 are looking to fill a much larger role than the bench spots Omar signed Jacobs and Matthews Jr to last year.

Sabermetrics or not, the Mets offseason was a collection of minor signings meant to represent depth and upside.  There weren’t many good or great players to be had at anything approaching reasonable value and the Mets roster wasn’t the swiss cheese of baseball rosters that many made it out to be.  Alderson hit the holes, and hit them hard.  Multiples options for second base and lots of bench guys to slot in at various positions around the field to provide suitable backups and provide depth should a regular need to sit out a couple of days.  A handful of pitchers who have potential, or have had a great year or two when they stay healthy to make up the two empty rotation spots, and a barrel full of relievers to make up a bullpen in what sounds like it will be a no-holds barred cage match in Spring Training for the last three or four spots.

Optimism is not a sin.  I try, and I’ll continue to try until the division is clinched, to make a case for how and why the Mets will win the division. The odds may be stacked against them and they may need more things to go right than would be considered normal luck but that doesn’t mean they it’s impossible, or that it’s useless to be hopeful and upbeat that they can happen, and that the Mets can win.

I truly believe that the Mets could have one of the best offenses in the National League, and I’m not going to be shy about proclaiming that.  Looking at the lineup, it’s certainly not a stretch.  There is a certain amount of recovery from some and growing from others needed for it to happen, but it’s not out of the question.  Closer to Opening Day I’ll make my official case for how and why I’m predicting the Mets will clinch the division on 9/25 against the Phillies.

Most importantly, the games still have to be played.  Every year there are dozens of pitchers that were great and revert to being pretty average.  There are rookies that take off in their second year to have great years, and players that overcome injury in previous seasons to have bounce back years. When those players bouncing back are perennial All-Stars, the bounce is that much higher.  There are surprises every season; no one knows what’s going to happen.  Even the predicted favorite from the offseason rarely makes it all the way to the World Series. Take the Sports Illustrated picks from last season; not even one supposed expert got either of the pennant winners correct.

So don’t get caught up in the negativity around the Mets.  There is nothing wrong with thinking some of the Mets signings will have a good year and stay healthy, that Ike Davis could blossom into an excellent player or that Reyes and Beltran in their walk year put up numbers close to their career norms.  With better coaching and leadership it’s a pretty good bet that the Mets will get more out of their talent than they have in years past.  Remember: Optimism is not a sin!

Update: Here’s a post by Brian DiMenna who’s joined the Optimistic Mets Fan Club.

I can practically guarantee that this conversation will happen during a Spring Training broadcast.
Gary Cohen: “It‘s the bottom of the third inning here at Digital Domain Park.  The Marlins just made a pitching change, bringing in their ace Josh Johnson to get his work in.  David Wright at the plate with the bases loaded.

Ron Darling: “The Mets are down a run, this is the perfect opportunity for them to tie the game even with an out.”

Keith Hernandez: “They’ve got some speed on the bases.  With..who’s on first?”

Gary: “Hu’s on second.”

Keith: “No, on first. Who’s there?”

Gary: “Yes.”

Yesterday I mentioned a couple of things to watch for in Spring Training. Today I’ll run through a couple of things that aren’t worth paying much attention to.

Statistics
The results don’t matter.  This goes double for guys with guaranteed spots and pitchers.  Pitchers tend to experiment with different things like pitch selection, grip, or even a new pitch.  They may stand on a different part of the rubber or pitch from the stretch with no one on just for practice.  Being that the games don’t matter, they’re able to tinker without affecting the standings. An example of this is last spring Mike Pelfrey said “I threw all split-finger fastballs one inning.”  This is not something that he would do in a game situation.

The numbers for the guys competing for spots may matter a bit more, but the entire experience is an evaluation and a showcase.  It’s more than who strikes out the most batters or who hits the most home runs.  It could be about any number of things and often managers and general managers may go on feel.  They could be looking at how hard a guy hits the ball, even for outs, or looking to see if he’s laying off bad pitches that were causing too many strikeouts in years past. Spring Training is almost always a small sample size subject to a lot of variation.  AAA players, pitchers working on things, defenders playing a position for the first time, pitchers experimenting with new grips and new deliveries and pitches all create a game that’s not quite the same as the regular season.   Often decisions need to be made on less measurable things like work ethic, bat speed, or getting good reads on fly balls.

Reports On Physical Condition
Inevitably someone in camp is in the best shape of their lives, while others packed on some pounds.  This information is beyond useless beyond making fun of the fat guy on a rival team’s roster.  It’s still six weeks to Opening Day and everyone is well into a regimented workout program by then that makes what they ate in the offseason while they were essentially on vacation worthless. No one criticizes you when you have a second helping of pulled pork and another cocktail when you’re on vacation, so lay off the players.

Game Scores and Records
For every example of a team that dominated Spring Training that did well in the regular season there is a team that did horrible in Spring Training and still did well in the regular season.  None of it matters.  Guys are just putting in their work.  It’s a rotating cast of characters parading through the game and half of them won’t even make the team.  Sometimes they tie. Sometimes they play a 10th inning for fun and sometimes the manager pinch hits an unseasoned AA rookie for his superstar in the bottom of the 9th just because he wants to see if he can hit the lefty on the mound.  The same goes for lineups early on.  Sometimes stars bat higher up in the order so they can get their two or three at-bats in earlier in the game and get off the field.  You may bat a pitcher third because you want him to practice a bunt or move a player to lead off to challenge him to take more pitches.

Spring Training is a lot of fun, but it’s still an exhibition for the real thing.  There are a lot of interesting things to watch, but there are plenty of things that aren’t worth worrying about either.

All teams have a variety of different roster spots open for the taking in Spring Training.  So what should we be watching in Port St. Lucie with the Mets?  (And if you’re watching on SNY, the games will be in HD this year!)

Health
Keeping players healthy is definitely number one. This includes building up arm strength and recovering from an injury that ended last season, or simply not getting hurt.  Jason Bay, Francisco Rodriguez and Daniel Murphy ended up the season on the disabled list. The primary goal from them is to get to Opening Day without experiencing any pain or lingering effects of what ailed them last year.  Bay and Rodriguez have both been reported healthy and pain free, but it’ll be good to show that in real spring training games.  Daniel Murphy has had some knee issues, and the best shot he has at winning a job this season is to not be hampered by lingering pain that prevents him from putting in the work both at second base, and at the plate, that he needs.

Some guys have been injured frequently, to various degrees, and may be at risk again.  Chris Young, Chris Capuano, Carlos Beltran are three of the most recent cases.  Beltran has mainly been dealing with one issue, a lack of cartilage in his knee, and may have that under control via an understanding of what ails him, and a knee brace that keeps his knee bones from bruising further.  Beltran’s goal this spring is to prove the brace hasn’t reduced his range significantly in center field, and to get the reps at the plate he needs to keep up to speed without needlessly stressing his knee in exhibition games.

Young and Capuano have more to prove if they want to earn a spot on this team and continue contributing for the entire season.  Consistent starts this spring with no reports of pain or soreness would go a long way to giving us confidence that can give us some quality innings.

Jose Reyes often gets mentioned in the injury discussion, but really he was healthy for most of 2011.  He had a medical condition that had him almost literally rolling out of bed and into the field in April, and had a slight oblique strain mid-season that was so poorly managed by the Mets and their manager that it probably cost him twice as many games as it needed to.  Players get nicked u, and an oblique strain isn’t something to worry about.  Given these parameters, it seems like 2010 is the absolute floor of what we can expect out of Reyes for any given season, and given a full spring worth of preparation it’s not unfair to expect him to be much better again.

The Stars
The results may not matter, but it’s still fun to watch some of the best in the game play.  The Mets have a nice core of excellent players.  David Wright and Jason Bay can launch home runs and bash the ball all over the place.  Jose Reyes can run wild and be his energetic, fun to watch self.  Carlos Beltran may go back to making difficult defensive plays look easy while blasting home runs.

While maybe not on the same level, yet, many other players that have jobs secured are fun to watch.  Ike Davis has some great power and is maturing as a hitter.  R.A. Dickey is an amazing guy and watching him taunt hitters with the knuckleball is always fun.  Jon Niese progressing with his devastating curveball or Bobby Parnell blowing guys away with his occasionally triple digit fastball will make highlights reels all spring long.

Rounding Out the Roster
Which guys will make the team seemingly out of nowhere?  Who will have a monster spring and launch themselves into the conversation for 5th starter, or long reliever, or first pinch hitter off the bench?  A lot of the bullpen is open for guys looking to have a strong showing.  Beyond second base that has a couple of favorites, but is an open competition, there are a couple of different ways the Mets could fill out the extra bench spots.  Could it be Nick Evans? Or Scott Hairston?  What about Jason Pridie or Justin Turner?

The Future
What’s more exciting than seeing what may be on tap for the years to come? Jenrry Mejia make a lot of noise last spring, enough that he mistakenly got a roster spot in the bullpen.  He’ll be exciting to watch this year to see how’s he progressed and if he’s someone we can look forward to in the future.  You’ve got some possible outfielders that look exciting, like Lucas Duda or Kirk Nieuwenhuis.

The Broadcast
Besides the games finally being in high definition, Gary, Keith, Ron, and Kevin are a joy to listen to do a game.  Just like Spring Training is a little more lax than the regular season, so are the broadcasts.  Obviously most of us don’t have the opportunity to listen to them live, because most games are on at 1pm, but if you do get a chance it’s well worth it.

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