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On Writing Off 2012 in October of 2011

You can find remarks about the Mets 2012 season being over all over the place.  It’s on Twitter, in the mainstream media, in blogs and blog comments.  Its popularity doesn’t make the statement any less ridiculous.  To suggest that anyone knows exactly how much money the Mets will spend, who they will spend it on, and the likely makeup of the 2012 roster is crazy.  To suggest that anyone how that roster, and the other 29 rosters, will perform is crazier.

The randomness of injuries is one such pitfall to this.   If you can suggest with confidence that the Mets will get hurt, and the opposition won’t, for all of next year you’re kidding yourself.   Every year some injury prone guys stay healthy and have big years, and some perpetually healthy guys get hurt and miss time.   On every team.   Ryan Howard is already out for at least 5-6 months.  David Wright missed months.  Ike Davis missed almost the entire season.  The Mets were a revolving door of injuries and if you’re sure that David Wright is going to get hurt again you’re either delusional or you have a voodoo doll.  Every team deals with injuries, but the Mets managed to have more than most and have them happen to their key guys.  What if it had been Scott Hairston, Jason Pridie and Tim Byrdak that had the most serious injuries last season?

Jose Reyes has stated he’d like to stay with the Mets, and Sandy Alderson has declared it Reyes month.  If you’re sure Reyes isn’t going to be a Met next season, you’re not listening.  It all flows from there.   Sandy Alderson could remake the bullpen and acquire a quality starting pitcher that provides the team with much needed quality innings and allows the offense to build leads.  Jon Niese could develop into an ace.   Lucas Duda could hold down right field and prove to be a force at the plate.  There are a lot of ifs around the league, and despite finances or contracts, the Mets have as much a shot of making themselves better as anyone else.

You’ll often hear “The Mets are so many players away from contending.”  This seems to be a shot in the dark, at best.  No one knows how many players the Mets need, and at what positions.   Health plays in.  The Mets needed to completely collapse in 2007 to miss the playoffs.  It’d have been easy to say that adding Johan Santana, the best pitcher in baseball, was that ‘one player away’ the Mets needed.   Baseball is a team game, and often little moves have a cascading effect.  Adding one solid starting pitching could take 20-30 innings off the bullpens workload.   Most of the time those innings will be the lesser relievers, the guys that generally pitch in the 5th and 6th of games that aren’t critical.   You’re able to shift those innings away from the lower quality relievers, to the higher quality relievers.  Those innings also save total innings pitched for the relievers as a whole, providing them with a little more rest and making them more effective.   Then you can couple that with signing a couple of relievers, no one that’s big-impact, but talented pitchers that help raise the amount of quality innings you’re getting out of the bullpen.

The Mets have a lot of talent.  David Wright, Ike Davis, Daniel Murphy, Jon Niese, Johan Santana and hopefully Jose Reyes.  Hopefully some of the other guys like Lucas Duda, Mike Pelfrey, Angel Pagan, and Jason Bay have pretty talented years as well.   You don’t round out a team with All-Stars, you do it with quality players that provide consistent value.   You sign relievers you trust to get guys out most days.  You sign a veteran backup catcher to help mentor Thole and perhaps platoon with him.  Decent bench guys that can provide value in a key pinch-hitting spot and provide defense when they come into the game late.  The Mets, even with a less ridiculous payroll than the Yankees, will add a bunch of new players next year.  Some of these players will surprise, some will disappoint. If more surprise than disappoint, something we’re hopeful of because of Sandy Alderson, than the Mets will compete.

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1993: Scouting The National League

A snapshot of the offseason before the 1993 season.  Lots of tidbits and future Mets on that page.  Both expansion teams were picked to finish last, with the tagline “Better than the 1962 Mets.”  Ouch.  But wait, it gets worse.  Both teams would actually finish the season better than the 1993 Mets.

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A Week Later: Hopeful for the 2012 Mets

No Met has made an error, hit a home run, or struck out looking in over a week.  With a week of the offseason under my belt to let the highs and lows of emotion mellow out with time, it’s time to take a closer look at what transpired in 2011 and what hope there is for 2012.

 

The team played harder than was expected.   They didn’t give in, whether because of a tough loss, a rough week, or a poor start to a game.  They’d battle back late in games, and bounce back from a tough loss with a solid win.  There were plenty of times late in the season where they did seem to be going through the motions a little bit, but they seemed to bounce back from that as well.  Hopefully 2012 avoids any long periods of being out of it and prevents the team from getting complacent.

 

The bullpen, while successful for some stretches of times, was mostly a failure.  Part of this was the trade of Francisco Rodriguez, part of it was the depression of Taylor Buchholz.   Part had to do with the starters rarely giving length, as was the main problem in April.   The Mets are aware of this problem, and with some good scouting and analysis, there are relievers out there that you can get for reasonable prices.   I would expect at least 2-3 new faces in the pen to compliment the ones that stay.  The Mets lost a lot of games late last year, and strengthening the pen will go a long way in 2012.

 

The starting rotation is what’s going to be the big deal in 2012.  This is what’s going to make or break the team as a contender.   Niese and Dickey are locks.  Mike Pelfrey is also pretty much a lock, although he does become a trade candidate as well.  I wouldn’t be against keeping Capuano, but I suspect he’s priced himself out of what the Mets want to pay him.  Johan Santana is supposed to be ready to go as normal during Spring Training, but I’d put the certainty of that at somewhere around 75%, and that may be optimistic.  Right now he’s penciled in, and it won’t be until February before we know if he’ll be able to progress normally towards an Opening Day start.   Therefore the Mets need a backup plan.  Adding Santana would certainly help, but it’s likely the Mets need to upgrade further.   Finding another quality starter and reassigning Dillon Gee to be depth for Santana could be the way to go.  However, Dillon Gee may have earned a major league job.   If the Mets can get to the regular season with a healthy Santana, and everyone else, having to send Gee to the minors to start the season would be a nice problem to have.  From there they could reexplore trading Mike Pelfrey.  Other teams will deal with injuries, and many teams could make good use of a guy that will throw 200 innings of slightly above league average value pretty consistently.

 

Then there is the offense.   The offense was very good last year, despite few home runs and a lot of injuries.  2012’s hinges on Reyes staying, but if he does the Mets offense again looks to be very potent.  The biggest concern would be if Pagan can shake off the bad defensive year, and if Duda can take a step forward out in RF.   Thole needs to improve as well, and there’s something to be said for having a veteran right-handed catcher to work with him.  The Mets are discussing moving the walls in a bit in right and left, which will probably help the home run numbers, although they may shrink the gaps a little bit.   It looks like the Mets should still have a top-flight offense next year, capable of dealing damage to opposing pitchers.

 

The Mets could be competitive next year.  A lot hinges on Reyes re-signing and Johan turning up healthy.  The Mets do need to revamp the bullpen, sign another starter, and address the bench, but those are all reasonable expectations.  It’ll be an interesting offseason, and hopefully it will be a launching pad for a good season to come.

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More Info on 2012 Mets Tickets

The usual cast of bloggers just finished up a conference call with Mets VP Dave Howard about the new ticketing schemes.  Not a ton of new info came to light, but some things were clarified and hinted at.

 

I asked about the dynamic pricing floor.    Specifically that the dynamic pricing will never dip below what a season ticket holder paid for the same seat in that section.   What was left unclear was if that meant you’ll never get a ticket less than $12 in sections 535/536 where season ticket holders sit, or if you’ll never get a seat less than $12 in the Promenade Outfield section which encompasses a large subset of the cheaper seats.

 

This is not a move towards being a small market team or anything.  The pricing was created off of a lot of data, meant to optimize revenue.   Adjusting prices should help them sell more tickets, and if the team remains competitive all year, the dynamic pricing will increase revenue.

 

Renewal date is coming earlier, although there will be a payment plan option.  Basically it seems the Mets want your commitment as early as possible, but are more flexible with the actual cash.  It was hinted at that you could see your 2013 invoices by this time next year.

 

Mostly there wasn’t a lot of specifics revealed in the conference call.  Dave Howard mentioned keeping the ticket fees within a reasonable percentage of the ticket price, and mentioned that Tickets.com offered best technological package and had a good relationship with MLB.  Went into the thinking of dynamic pricing without breaking down when prices would go up/down and what types of prices you could expect to see.    There will be more to come as season plans and individual ticket info is released.  I’d say the number one thing I took out of this is:   Buying tickets day of game is getting to be a worse and worse idea around sports.

 

For now, read other recaps around Metsopotamia.

Metsblog

Metspolice has a bunch today, keep checking back for analysis.

Amazin’ Avenue has a full transcript.

 

 

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Tendering A Contract to Mike Pelfrey

I’d be shocked of Angel Pagan and Mike Pelfrey are not given contracts this season.  They’re both due raises via arbitration, and the raises they get could possibly push the money they make beyond the value they’re likely to provide.  Of course, it’s very hard to form a direct relationship between money and performance.  Ultimately it’s about getting the most value, not the best price for that value.

 

Mike Pelfrey and Scott Boras agreed to a 3.925 million dollar contract last year.  It’d be pretty hard for them to argue for much more than that in arbitration off this year.  I could see them settling for a similar value, which is not the six million dollar figure some are talking about.   Four million is a pretty reasonable amount, and it’s also a very tradeable contract if the Mets were able to find something better or they had a prospect knocking on the door in May.

 

Mike Pelfrey has not had a very good season, but he’s also not had a horrible one and has pitched on his turn every time and accumulated 200 innings.  Most teams don’t have five guys that do that, which is where Pelfrey’s value comes in. All in all Pelfrey’s peripheral stats look very similar to his stats from last year, and his stats from the year before that.  A new pitching coach may help some, specifically with working on his sinker again,  but it’s probably a safe bet to expect Pelfrey’s numbers in 2012 to be somewhere between 2010 and 2011.  I believe that has value, not as an ace but as a contributing member of a rotation.

 

I trust Mike Pelfrey to work hard this offseason and in Spring Training to do what he can do to get better.  He may not be worth the full value of what he’ll get paid, but he’ll provide the team with innings and consistency.  A lot of teams would snap him up if the Mets released him, and that’s yet another reason he’ll be offered a contract.  Someone will be willing to give the Mets a player in return for Pelfrey, were the Mets to look to trade him this offseason, in Spring Training, or early in the season.  Pitchers are always getting hurt, and reliable starters are always a commodity.   Having more than you need, even if one’s a little more expensive, is being able to deal from a position of strength.

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Baseball’s Over, Time For Vegas

Disclaimer: I’ve truly left for the airport.  If the Mets do something crazy like play a 20 inning final game and are still playing at the time I’ve scheduled this, read this tomorrow.

 

I find it somewhat poetic that as the Mets threw the last pitch of their 2011 season I was arriving at JFK to board a flight to Las Vegas to gamble and drink the sorrows of the season away.   Last year I got married within a week of the end of the season and went on my honeymoon shortly after.  When I got back to paying attention to the Mets Omar and Jerry were gone and the Phillies and Yankees had been eliminated from the playoffs.

 

I’ll still be posting some, mostly scheduled stuff, but here’s what I want to happen while I’m gone.  The Phillies and Yankees are bounced in the first round and I can enjoy the rest of the playoffs when I get back from vacation.  Dan Warthen has been let go, in favor of someone that’s going to be better.  The Mets have worked out a deal with Jose Reyes, and he’ll remain a Met for a long time.   Johan Santana has pitched some in winter ball and has no set backs.

 

This probably all won’t come to be, but one can dream.  After I’m in Vegas I’ll be in San Diego for a couple of days.  It’ll be my third trip to that city and I have yet to see a game at Petco Park.  I’ve toured it though, and it’s a great place.  Look for randomly tweeted pictures from around Petco next week during the day.  I’ll return the following weekend for a bachelor party, a wedding, and my own anniversary before diving back into baseball.  It’s going to be an interesting offseason for the New York Mets this year.

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Poll: Where Does Reyes Finish In MVP Race?

Jose Reyes won’t win it, he hasn’t played enough games. However, many voters will put Jose Reyes, deservedly, on their top 10 list when they vote. Where do you think he finishes overall?

 

Where Does Jose Reyes Finish in the MVP Awards?
First
Second
Third
Fourth
Fifth
Sixth
Seventh
Eighth
Lower Than Eigtht
Doesn’t Place
pollcode.com free polls
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Only Two Games: Enjoy Them

There are only two Mets games left on the season.  Tune in and watch or listen to them.   There are only two and we’ll be missing the Mets before you know it.  The DVR’d episode of How I Met Your Mother will wait.

 

Watch Jose Reyes compete for a batting title.  See some of the young guys make a case for inclusion on the 2012 team.  Nick Evans looks like he’s got a better than fair shot at making the team next year.  Jason Pridie is finish strong, perhaps making a case as the 4th outfielder.

 

It’s not a given that Reyes returns.  This could  be his last two games.  Last night could’ve been the last time David Wright will have driven in Jose Reyes.  If you make it out to Citi Field, make sure to give him a big hand.

 

It’s a long way to April 5th.  There will be a lot of unpleasant stories.  A lot of “The Mets can’t do that” and “The Mets can’t afford that” type stories.  They’re starting already, but at least we have two games left to enjoy before all the rumor and speculation.

 

Let’s Go Mets!

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2011 New York Mets, Officially Losers

The Mets lost last night, ticking their losses total to 82 and cliched a third straight losing season.  Darn.

 

Never mind about the spoilers.  Phillies and Yankees are already in, so I say let the other chips fall where they may.

 

I had high hopes for this team, and I thought a .500 finish was pretty close to the floor.  Of course injuries are the ultimate wild card, which the New York Giants are finding out as well this year.

 

Which brings me to Lucas Duda.  I severely hope he doesn’t have a concussion.  Concussions are one of those things that doctors don’t fully understand, and that often have lingering effects months and years down the line that no one’s even sure about.   Duda said after the game he was told he didn’t have a concussion, and hopefully that’s the case.

 

Which brings me to my number one hope for the last seven games of the season; No More Injuries!