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Here’s Your Optimistic Mets Prediction

Calling predictions predictions under-emphasizes how inaccurate and subject to random luck they are, even when it’s the so-called experts making them.  I am not an expert, merely a blogger that likes to think positively.  So what do I think the Mets do in 2012?

 

I think the highest probability bet is they finish third.  Right around 82-84 wins.  I know there are people out there that think that’s crazy, but it’s really not that outlandish.  The bullpen and rotation are improved over last year, even if you want to argue over how much.  The offense lost some big pieces, but it’s also got some guys back too.  Adding in some power to a team that was already going to get on base a lot should score a lot of runs.  I don’t think the Marlins improved enough to get above .500, and I think one of either the Nationals or Braves will deal with enough problems to fall below that mark.

 

This doesn’t mean the Mets can’t make the playoffs.  (Nor does it mean they can’t finish last) I’ve watched enough baseball to know anything can happen, and I think the Mets do have enough potential upside in a lot of their players to be able to realize competitiveness if enough things go right.  Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, Ruben Tejada, even Dillon Gee, Jon Niese and Josh Thole all are of an age or stage in their career where improvement is possible, even expected.   Mike Pelfrey keeping the ball down and yielding fewer home runs this season and Johan’s shoulder holding up better than we can reasonably home are other key factors that could lead to a good Mets season.

 

So all in all this season should at least be a lot of fun.  If you had to pick just one thing to zone in on and believe in, one reason to seriously watch this Mets baseball team, I’d say watch Lucas Duda and Ike Davis.  The lefty power the Mets have this season is very real and the Pepsi Porch may become the new hot spot to catch a home run ball this season.

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Are the Mets Irrelevant?

Joe Janish at Mets Today declares the Mets irrelevant.  The preliminary ESPN Sunday Night Baseball schedule came out, and the Mets are not on it.  Of course, the schedule only lists 10 of probably 26 or so total games, but certainly no one at ESPN thinks the Mets are going to be a draw early on.

 

He then asks at what point between the Mets signing Pedro Martinez and yesterday did the Mets fade into oblivion?

 

I think that date was when Jose Reyes signed with the Marlins.  The Mets losing their homegrown star, who’s one of the most exciting players in baseball, and seemingly fading into a financial holding pattern, was a big blow.  ESPN likes to air flashy stars and lots of drama.

 

This doesn’t mean the Mets won’t be on ESPN though.  There are certainly parts of the Mets that can turn into compelling stories.  ESPN would love to see a resurgent Johan Santana face Roy Halladay for instance.  If the Mets were competing with the Marlins later in the season, ESPN would love to twist the knife with the Reyes at Citi Field game.   The Subway Series could get flexed to prime time.  If Ike Davis and Lucas Duda are blasting home runs, it could propel the Mets into a interesting story.

 

ESPN’s opinion on what is a draw is also high skeptical.  A Spring Training beaning of Chase Utley by Mike Pelfrey and an ensuing fight could be enough to prompt them to put the first Sunday Mets-Phillies game on.    Still, the Mets are clearly underdogs in not just the games but in attention.   If they want to be a respected or interesting team, they’re going to have to earn it.

 

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2012: Can It Get Worse?

The 2012 Mets team is so devoid of any expectation that it’s almost a lock that we’ll be pleasantly surprised.

 

The way things have gone, it’s easy to forget that the Mets actually have a lot of talent on the roster.

 

With Ike Davis, David Wright and Daniel Murphy leading the way, the Mets offense should do pretty well.  Lucas Duda looks like a real good player.  Josh Thole and Ruben Tejada haven’t lit anything on fire, but they’re both still pretty young and have some value.

 

The Mets redid the bullpen with some talented and reliable arms.  They’ve got some guys returning that did a good job, and should be much improved there.

 

The starting pitching is obviously where one sees the biggest holes, but it’s probably not quite that dire.  Mike Pelfrey and Dillon Gee will probably never be stars, but they both have shown they can be inning eaters or pitch that occasional gem.  Jon Niese has dealt with some injuries, but he’s a high strikeout guy still learning and growing.  R.A. Dickey is a very good pitcher and has proved he’s no one-hit wonder.   The big question mark is obviously Johan Santana and if he’ll experience any setbacks or injuries during the year.

 

There’s more talent on this team than people seem to be talking about right now.   Some of it may it may be suspect, and some may end up injured, but it’s unlikely it all will and it’s also possible some of the younger players take unforeseen strides forward.  They may not win 95 games, but they’re not the 60-70 wins, lock for last place team that they’re being portrayed as.   Sometimes you have to push aside some of the doom and gloom and take a closer look.

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Biggest Week of Mets Baseball in Years

This next week or two may be the biggest games the Mets have played since the last week of 2008, and they also might be the biggest games they’ll play for years.  The Mets record, as well as the Phillies and Braves, will greatly determine the look of the team going forward this year, and maybe even next year too.

Sandy Alderson has said he would consider trading Carlos Beltran right now a white flag, but if the Mets play poorly over the next two weeks, that white flag is inevitable anyway.   It’s probably not just Carlos Beltran either; The Mets won’t get a ton for guys like Chris Capuano or Jason Isringhausen, but if the chances of contention plummet there will be little reason to keep them.   If they manage to climb closer in the race, the small return from trading those guys won’t be worth gutting the team.  In a way, the Mets could finish a handful of games above or below .500 based on how they do in these next bunch of games.

Either way this season will likely be viewed as a step in the right direction, but if the Mets fall out of it here and restructure the team with next year in mind, the record and excitement levels will fall.   That probably won’t be enough to prompt many to invest in this team, raising projected income and in turn, payroll.  As the memory of the last Mets game fades, we’ll be subjected to more financial news regarding the Picard lawsuit and the Madoff mess.  Their will be speculations about Einhorn’s control, about how much the payroll can possibly go up, and if the Mets will actually field a competitive team.   So the only real news will be mostly doom and gloom again, which won’t help sell tickets.  Just today someone called into WFAN in the brief 20 minutes I had it on proclaiming there is no way the Mets compete for five or six years.

If the Mets climb back into the race and get closer, Sandy Alderson will be more likely to keep players like Beltran, and may even look to add a reliever or someone, especially if the player can be helpful beyond this year too.   Whether or not they can or will win a playoff race is not the point here, the point is that if they stay close and prove that they can play with anyone it suggests that the Mets may not be years from competing.   They could go into the offseason with fans thinking they’re getting close and with the right moves, including resigning Jose Reyes, the Mets could be a very good team next year.  

There’s going to be a lot of stuff to watch with this team this year, and if they remain competitive and winning games they’ll bring in fans to watch versus fans switching gears to what could be a returning NFL season or something else.  Jose Reyes could have a record breaking season, as despite spotting the opposition 11 or more games, he’s still got a commanding lead in base hits.  David Wright will be returning, one of the Mets franchising players who they’ve sorely missed.  Johan Santana may return, and while that’s still up in the air, as is his effectiveness, it will be nice to see him on the mound again.  I would like to be at his first game back if I can at least.

It all starts tonight against the Phillies with your hero in attendence.   The Phillies aren’t taking the Mets seriously, opting to give  Halladay and Lee some extra rest coming off the break and pushing them back until after the weekend.  Facing Vance Worley, Cole Hamels who the Mets routinely beat, and Kyle Kendrick is not a daunting task.  Hopefully the Mets can get a hot start to the second half, while exposing the Phillies pitching depth, and start catching both them and the Braves who are playing the Nationals this weekend.