Here’s Your Optimistic Mets Prediction Tweet This Post

April 5th, 2012 by Ceetar in 2012, Baseball, bloggers, ceetar, Mets

Calling predictions predictions under-emphasizes how inaccurate and subject to random luck they are, even when it’s the so-called experts making them. I am not an expert, merely a blogger that likes to think positively. So what do I think the Mets do in 2012?

I think the highest probability bet is they finish third. Right around 82-84 wins. I know there are people out there that think that’s crazy, but it’s really not that outlandish. The bullpen and rotation are improved over last year, even if you want to argue over how much. The offense lost some big pieces, but it’s also got some guys back too. Adding in some power to a team that was already going to get on base a lot should score a lot of runs. I don’t think the Marlins improved enough to get above .500, and I think one of either the Nationals or Braves will deal with enough problems to fall below that mark.

This doesn’t mean the Mets can’t make the playoffs. (Nor does it mean they can’t finish last) I’ve watched enough baseball to know anything can happen, and I think the Mets do have enough potential upside in a lot of their players to be able to realize competitiveness if enough things go right. Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, Ruben Tejada, even Dillon Gee, Jon Niese and Josh Thole all are of an age or stage in their career where improvement is possible, even expected. Mike Pelfrey keeping the ball down and yielding fewer home runs this season and Johan’s shoulder holding up better than we can reasonably home are other key factors that could lead to a good Mets season.

So all in all this season should at least be a lot of fun. If you had to pick just one thing to zone in on and believe in, one reason to seriously watch this Mets baseball team, I’d say watch Lucas Duda and Ike Davis. The lefty power the Mets have this season is very real and the Pepsi Porch may become the new hot spot to catch a home run ball this season.

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Tags: 2012 mets predictions, 2012 new york mets, Mets, mets optimism, mets predictions, mets will be good, New York Mets

hernandezhofer

Jeez, I know you are the optimistic Met fan, but don’t go too far. What do you really think the upside is for Gee? The man had a 5 ERA in AAA. He throws an 89 MPH fastball, with a bad slider and a very bad curveball. His upside is staying in the big leagues.
Tejeda isn’t much better – a .693 career minor league OPS doesn’t exactly fill me with confidence.
Where will the improvement come from? The loss of Reyes and Beltran gurantees the offense will be worse. Duda has Kevin Mass written all over him.
Defense? Much worse. Downgrades in RF, 2B and SS.
Pitching? The bullpen will probably be a wash – increased depth vs. losing a 1/2 season of KRod.
The starting staff may see a little improvement from Johan, but what is his best case? A return to his 2010 form? That is 3.5 wins above replacement. The most optimistic projection for Tejeda has him as a 2 win player this year, down from the 6.2 from Reyes. This means that the best case is that Johan just replaces the wins lost from losing Reyes.
Again, does there seem to be any realistic scenario that would lead to the Mets improving? The only way I see is if Bay and Wright revert to being 6 or 7 win players and Harvey and Familia come up at midseason and are lights out.
I just can’t see it. The only ‘fun’ thing about this season is when/if the big arms come up. None of the young guys up right now, with the exception of Davis and maybe Niese, has an upside higher than borderline starter/bench player.
http://Gravesendblend.com Patrick

I’m with the OMF, Mets have upside. Every team in the NL Eeast has question marks. It’s not crazy to think we finish third.

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