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Here’s Your Optimistic Mets Prediction

Calling predictions predictions under-emphasizes how inaccurate and subject to random luck they are, even when it’s the so-called experts making them.  I am not an expert, merely a blogger that likes to think positively.  So what do I think the Mets do in 2012?

 

I think the highest probability bet is they finish third.  Right around 82-84 wins.  I know there are people out there that think that’s crazy, but it’s really not that outlandish.  The bullpen and rotation are improved over last year, even if you want to argue over how much.  The offense lost some big pieces, but it’s also got some guys back too.  Adding in some power to a team that was already going to get on base a lot should score a lot of runs.  I don’t think the Marlins improved enough to get above .500, and I think one of either the Nationals or Braves will deal with enough problems to fall below that mark.

 

This doesn’t mean the Mets can’t make the playoffs.  (Nor does it mean they can’t finish last) I’ve watched enough baseball to know anything can happen, and I think the Mets do have enough potential upside in a lot of their players to be able to realize competitiveness if enough things go right.  Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, Ruben Tejada, even Dillon Gee, Jon Niese and Josh Thole all are of an age or stage in their career where improvement is possible, even expected.   Mike Pelfrey keeping the ball down and yielding fewer home runs this season and Johan’s shoulder holding up better than we can reasonably home are other key factors that could lead to a good Mets season.

 

So all in all this season should at least be a lot of fun.  If you had to pick just one thing to zone in on and believe in, one reason to seriously watch this Mets baseball team, I’d say watch Lucas Duda and Ike Davis.  The lefty power the Mets have this season is very real and the Pepsi Porch may become the new hot spot to catch a home run ball this season.

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Will The Mets Be Better Than 2011?

Optimism starts small; will the Mets improve on 2011’s record?  Are they a better team?  Will they perform better?

 

I’m leaning towards yes.   Losing Reyes, Pagan and Beltran is a big hit, but the Mets offense is still pretty strong.  Lucas Duda looks like a solid player.  Andres Torres may not be great, but even if he’s not good the Mets have high hopes for Kirk Nieuwenhuis coming up pretty quickly.  David Wright and Ike Davis are healthy, and Daniel Murphy should get some more playing time as well.  Josh Thole and Ruben Tejada may not be the best, but they’re pretty good at not making out and keeping the line moving.  This team won’t have problems scoring runs.

 

The bullpen is clearly slated to be better.  Francisco Rodriguez will not be here, but the Mets added Frank Francisco, Ramon Ramirez, and Jon Rauch.  Some injury concerns, but the bullpen has some pretty good depth.

 

The starters are where the big questions come in.  The Mets lost Chris Capuano, who did a pretty good job for them.  Good job aside, his eminently replaceable 1.7 rWAR is not going to handicap them much.  Johan Santana is slated to take that spot, provided he does not have a setback during Spring Training.  Despite this serious possibility I have faith Santana can at least approach the 1.7 rWAR Capuano gave the Mets.  Even if he’s somewhat diminished, he’s a smart competitor that should be able to get by with somewhat reduced ability.    With luck bouncing a little more in Pelfrey’s favor this season, and Jon Niese’s peripherals leading to a better ERA, it’s possible the Mets starters will be better too.  It probably hinges most on health, but that’s an argument and concern for every team.

 

So there’s a very high-level argument for the Mets being better.  We can worry about how much better another time, particularly as it pertains to the other NL East teams and their records.  Specifically, it’ll be decided on the field with the games being played, not on a blog or newspaper somewhere before the season even starts.

 

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Some Random Math About Bay and 2012

The Mets offense has the potential to be pretty excellent next year.  That next level to ‘really excellent’ depends a lot on Jason Bay.  He’s shown some improvement lately, perhaps there were lingering effects of the concussion that he didn’t even realize.  Still, he’s been pretty bad overall.   I think how well Jason Bay plays the rest of 2011 will go a long way towards how the media feels about the Mets in 2012. I’m proposing a direct relationship between Jason Bay’s home run total through the rest of the season, and the Mets predicted win total in 2012.

 

He’s got 9 right now.  11 seems a stretch, but if he got to 20 I feel like people would proclaim him ‘back’.  I’ll set that as the absolute ceiling, and say it equates to 89 wins.   Each home run less than that will be worth 1 win.  If he doesn’t hit another, the Mets will be predicted to win 78.  If he hits 5 to finish with 14, 83 wins.

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Your Preseason Prediction Was Just a Guess

It’s amusing how whenever a team approaches the winning percentage you predicted preseason, they’re “right where they should be.”  A week earlier, or a week later and you could be completely wrong.  A week ago the Mets were four games over .500.  Were the people that predicted .500 so completely off base last Friday?  Of course, maybe the Mets were playing over their heads.  But why is them winning four games in a row over their heads and losing four isn’t under their feet?

 

It was pretty easy to see the Mets were capable of being a winning team with a couple of things breaking right, and a losing team with some key injuries or bad luck or under-performing.  Every season for every team is like that.  If you predicted the Mets to be at .500, which it’s still not guaranteed they’ll do when it’s all said and done, did you predict it with a healthy David Wright?  Did you think Jason Bay would be this bad?  Carlos Beltran that good?  That the Mets would trade Beltran and K-Rod?  That Murphy would hit .320?  That Josh Thole would take a step backwards?

 

Right now the things that went right have been balanced with things that went bad.  But all it takes is a lucky bounce, or a Jon Niese injury, or a couple more home runs from Jason Bay for that prediction to look way off.  18 games into the season the Mets looked like a bad team, and those that predicted them to be in last were excited to be right.  A week ago the Mets were flying high four games over .500 and predictors that guessed 88 wins were starting to feel excited about the return of David Wright and the emergence of Lucas Duda propelling the team to those heights.    Now they lost a couple and the .500 guessers are out in full force, citing how the Mets keep returning to .500 like a yo-yo because they’re just not that good.

 

So stop applauding yourself for roughly guessing how many wins the Mets will finish with, or any other team.  Likewise, you’re not “smarter than the experts” because you selected an already really good pitcher to pitch really well and contend for a Cy Young.   Some guesses are certainly better than others, but at best they’re just guesses.  This same rule applies to radio hosts and sports show analysts as well.  So stop gloating.