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Meaningless September Baseball

You know it’s bad when you’re starting to pay more attention to the upcoming Yankees series against the Red Sox hoping the Sox can stay undefeated than you are to the Mets, and even have to strain to remember who they’re playing next.

In fact, while I can’t find it in my budget right now to justify going to Citi Field to see the Mets play bad baseball, I just got an offer to go to the Thursday night Red Sox games in the Bronx. At least this way I can go to a game and not be disappointed when the home team loses. I’ve forgotten what it’s like to have baseball being played but my interest waning. It’s not fun, and I’m not even a big football fan so I can hardly look forward to the Giants.

If Beltran and Reyes were to come back tomorrow, I’d tell you we still had a fighting chance. Technically we do. There is plenty of time for miracle comes backs and great baseball. It just doesn’t seem like it’s going to happen with this bunch of guys. Stranger things have happened though, and I know I won’t be able to complete ignore the team anyway. After all, it’s still Mets baseball.

Maybe Sheffield discovers some magic from when he was younger, the non-steroid kind, and maybe Pelfrey blossoms into a really consistent solid starter. Perhaps Perez finally figures it out and starts pitching with less walks, despite the indications that he needs a better coach. Because of the Conservation of Walks theory, Jeff Francoeur will take the walks that Perez stops issuing, and actually raise his OBP well above his AVG. Daniel Murphy could suddenly become the solid hitter we all started to suspect he could be.

Unlikely, but still possible. Can you risk missing it by turning the television off?

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Division Isn’t Out of the Question for the Mets

You may have seen that pessimistic post on Metsblog earlier that stated the Mets should be aiming to go 45 and 20 to win the Wild Card.  This is short sighted.  I hate to do this, but let’s go back to 2007.

On July 27th 2007 the Mets were up four games over the Phillies and Braves in second place.  They kept the hordes at bay for a month, and on August 27th were six games up, seven over the Braves, and neither team looked really good.

Then the Mets played that ill-fated series in Philadelphia where they lost four games, the lead dropping to two games and panic started to set in.  The Mets rebounded terrifically winning five in a row and 10 of their next 12.

They hosted the Phillies again on September 12th with a seven game lead and plenty of reason to think that the series in Philadelphia was merely a fluke.

More so than any other reason, the Mets lost in 2007 because they lost those seven games to the Phillies.  In 2009 the Mets and Phillies play eight more times.  They blew their first chance at this a couple of weeks ago, allowing the Phillies to sweep them, but 65 games and eight against the leader is not something you write off.  If the Mets are good enough to overcome the deficit in the wild card, they’re good enough to overcome the deficit in the division.  The Phillies are bound to come back to earth, as they’re not going to play at this crazy winning percentage for the rest of the season, and now they’ve started to be bit by the injury bug as well.  If the Mets can recover and run with it, it’s the division that’s waiting, not the wild card.  If you’re looking for numbers or formulas, here is one for you.

There are 10 weeks left of the season, and 8 games against the Phillies.  Win six of the games against the Phillies, and then play merely one game better than them in five of the other 8 weeks they don’t play Philadelphia.  Win one more game, whether it’s another against the Phillies, another random game during the season, or game 163.  From there the playoffs are your oyster.

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Enjoy the Game

The All-Star game arrives tomorrow. Tonight is the Home Run Derby. It’s a much maligned three, or four, days without regular season games. I’ve written an article about how exciting the All-Star break can be, and there are some points this year that I’d like to add.

allstar2009patch

This is the first year of the MLB Network. I’ve really liked what they’ve done so far, and while the All-Star Game is still on Fox, I think we’ll see some good stuff on the Network, getting better every year. Presumably the game will eventually be televised on MLB Network or at least they will have a lot more exclusive rights to things going on around the game.

Watch the game for the celebration of baseball as our National Pastime. Don’t play the “what if” game about injuries and arm fatigue and all that. These players can treat it as a vacation, a reprise from the grind of everyday baseball and the pressures that may envelope them on their own teams. These athletes are in good enough shape that the mental break from the standings is much more important than the physical break from playing.

I’ll enjoy watching the different aspects and play of different stars around the league. Because it’s baseball, and I love baseball. It doesn’t even matter that it barely counts. No one would risk getting excited about the prospects of game seven of the World Series at this point anyway, too much of a jinx.

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I Do Not Prefer Rooting for Underdogs

Underdogs? This is really what you want?

underdog_cartoon

There was some talk around Mets fandom after Beltran went down that now the team is more likable, because they’re fighting underdogs. Sure the St. Louis series was fun, but since then we’ve gotten swept by the Yankees, and lost the first game to the Brewers. Is this really your idea of a good team to root for?

No, it’s not. I’ve long been discouraged by the idea that most Mets fans identify with the “lovable losers” idea. Ask Keith Hernandez what he thinks about lovable losers. No one can seriously tell me you like rooting for this team this way, given what we could have. This is not a “Let’s be competitive” year, this is a win it all year. Injuries are no excuse.

The same way some fans get on Wright or start talking about “Trading the core”, some tout the lovable losers line. The reasoning is usually the same: It’s a way to steel themselves for the disappointment they think is coming, again, at the end of the year. It’s one thing rooting for underrated players like those on the ’69 Mets that show up and suddenly lead the team to a championship, and it’s another to root for talented stars, like in ’86, that take no prisoners and play exciting baseball. Right now, this team is neither.

The Mets do need to find a way to win games the way they are currently setup. Whether that’s firing the underachieving manager for someone who will field the best people on the roster in the best order, (This means your high OBP guys, like Castillo, don’t bat 8th. Especially when in Castillo’s case he’s not a huge RBI guy. This means not having Argenis Reyes playing at all, especially at the top of a lineup where he’ll get the most AB of anyone. This means giving up on Tatis who occasionally hits the ball hard, but mostly grounds into out(s). This means playing Murphy regularly, playing Fernando Martinez regularly, playing Evans regularly. Maybe these guys are all busts, but the upside is so much better than Argenis or Tatis and has the added benefit of maybe giving Omar some focus on what position to look for a bat. If Murphy starts/continues hitting well when he’s playing, Omar can ignore first base and focus on the outfield. Or vice versa if Evans appears to be solid, or Fernando crosses the prospect->talent line.), making a big trade for a bat from outside the organization, or getting the current batch of unsuccessful players to work harder, take extra batting practice, watch more video, read more scouting reports and practice more fundamentals to get what we can from them.

And one last thing: Lovable Losers is more a Cubs thing than Sweet Caroline is a Red Sox thing. So is throwing home run balls back, which seems to have taken wind across baseball. As Keith says, “Don’t do it.”

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Underdogs? No way!

Underdogs? No way!

Beltran wants us to be in first place when he gets back, and I agree.

From 062209_Cardinals

I went out and supported the team last night, at Citi Field, in section 520 of the Promenade. I haven’t been in a couple of weeks, and it felt like returning home. This is after a trip to Yankee Stadium, which I’ll write about later, but I’m confident now to say that this is the best stadium in New York. And that’s without a Seaver statue. I’ve heard a cool idea about naming the area just in front of the bridge and above the bullpen The Piazza, which I think is a cool idea. Although, I think it might be a better name for the food court area on the Promenade behind home plate. After all, wouldn’t you look for Piazza behind home plate, not out in the bullpen?

It was a great bounce back win yesterday, after a flurry of roster moves including Carlos Beltran to the DL. This means that Wright and Castillo are the only two regulars who have not spent time on the disabled list. Daniel Murphy as well, but he hasn’t seen regular time through May, so it’s hard to count him. However, that’s the key. If Daniel Murphy is a regular player, and he’s starting to show that maybe he is, things may not be as grim as they seem. Ryan Church has been doing well since returning. Brian Schneider hasn’t been his pre-injury disasterous April self, and while he’s not Piazza and Manuel still likes Santos over him, it’s a good thing to see him getting big hits. Santos is avoiding the inevitable drop off you’d expect from a career minor league.

The only blight right now might be Tatis. He’s getting way too much playing time for playing so badly. He’s grounding into double plays at an alarming rate, and he had no place batting cleanup last night, or pinch hitting for Murphy Sunday night. Keith Hernandez has been pointing out how messed up his swing is from last year for weeks. Give him a rest, and lets get Evans some outfield starts. He was starting to hit in the minors, and he has some power. I know he’s as right-handed as Sheffield, but he could be a good solution to who to play when you rest Sheffield, who needs a lot of rest to contribute much to this team.

So, are the Mets underdogs? I say no. The Phillies are having injury problems as well, and they weren’t as good a team to begin with. So instead of trying to tread water, not lose ground, and hope everyone comes back healthy, I say go out there and ride the guys that are hot, and take back this division. Maybe Santos will drop off, maybe Murphy won’t hit .300, but they’re hitting now, and there is no reason we can’t win now. Especially if Nieve is serious about being good. Redding drops some decent games on us, Livan seems to be acceptable. Santana is Santana, and hopefully Pelfrey is just having a blip in his early career. There is hope for Perez and Maine coming back, and there is always Niese in the wings. The bullpen is still excellent, as long as Manuel recognizes the need for rest, and Parnell can make the proper adjustments. It seems like he can, Parnell really does look like a serious player. He probably could use some days off, as could Feliciano, but I have confidence in those guys if they don’t get burnt out.

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The Next Two Weeks

These are two big weeks coming up. I would like to see the Mets with a couple of games lead in the division by the time it’s over, even with the injuries. While the Mets play seven games against Pittsburgh and the Nationals, the Phillies play the Padres who have been good again, and then four against the Dodgers. The Braves also have a tough stretch, against the Cubs and the Brewers.

The following week the Phillies return to Citi Field where they haven’t won a game. The Mets face the Phillies and Yankees that week, two teams that have some offense, but struggle in the pitching department. These are teams that a good pitching team like the Mets should beat. The Phillies get three against the Red Sox while the Mets do the Subway Series thing.

So these next two weeks are a great time for the Mets to start putting distance between themselves and the rest of the division. Let the Phillies start looking over their shoulder at the Braves instead.

Oliver Perez already had a setback in his recovery to replace the struggling Redding, but if Jose Reyes gets back on target on Friday, and this stomach bug moves along, this team should be ready to go.

Angel Pagan getting injured yesterday wasn’t great news. Yet another outfielder hurt, which has been a theme the past three years. However Pagan doesn’t make or break this team. Given all the injuries, if his MRI today doesn’t say he’ll be back tomorrow, you have to DL him and replace him on the roster. My vote would be for Nick Evans. I know he’s been struggling in the minors, but he played well last year, and in Spring Training. Maybe the boost of being on a major league team is what he needs. While still facing a team like the Pirates that’s basically AAA anyway. Corey Sullivan or Bobby Kielty are both acceptable guys in my eyes too.

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Instant Replay, Seating and Pricing, First Place

Instant Replay! Best thing to happen to baseball since the Wild Card! Last night’s was probably the least clear of them all; Murphy’s drive glanced off the overhang of the Pepsi Porch, which is exactly what it was intended to do. However, it shouldn’t have been that difficult. Here’s what I propose.

Tilt all the advertisements slightly. Make it so the bottom of the ad is an inch closer to home plate than the top of it. This will be virtually unnoticeable to anyone, but it will clearly alter the path of any balls that even glance off of it.

Add a camera that is on the corner of the Porch, in foul territory, that only points along the front wall of the Porch.

The best view of it may have been the fans standing (or sitting) in the last section of the Excelsior level. Here’s a shot I took standing there into the bullpen, but you have a good view of that Subway sign.

From 040709_Phillies

People joke about all the pricing levels at Citi Field, but it’s actually pretty straight forward. I opened ticketmaster to check availability for a game at Yankee Stadium, and was confronted with way too many options.

From MetsStuff

Good win by the Mets, getting Santana the W even when he hasn’t been his best. He’s going to be a serious contender for 20 wins this year. The Mets are back in first place where they belong and aren’t playing good teams for the next couple of weeks. Beltran is hopefully back tomorrow, and hopefully Reyes and Church will be back before they find themselves facing a tough team again. It’s time to hang onto first place for the long run.

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They Are That Good

Just because we’re losing, or have lost, doesn’t mean that we aren’t that good.

When you encounter someone that tells you the Mets aren’t that good, give them a pat on the back. Their response is a defense mechanism against the hurt they’re feeling with the way this team is managed and playing.

No matter how you look at it, this team is pretty good and should win the division.

They’re better than last year. The bullpen has gone from bottom five to top five. That’s a huge improvement. The starters seem at least as good as last year. Both corner outfield spots look to be better than last year, as does second base.

The Phillies are worse. Being that they had a ton of pitchers have career years last year, it was obvious they wouldn’t repeat that performance. They weren’t even the best team last year, except as far as ultimate results go. They have been getting by on their offense so far, but their offense, while good, can’t carry them all year. Offense slumps, and that could lead to disastrous stretches of games if their pitchers continue to be mediocre. They certainly didn’t look like a great team in any of the four games they played the Mets.

Even if you go position by position, the Mets are a good team. They’re getting top of the line performance out of 3B and CF. The corner outfielders are around league average or better, and under-performing. Catcher is right around average, while SS and 2B are above it. Pelfrey and Maine are both above league average, which means that we have a favorable pitching match up more times than not.

I know it’s tough sometimes, when they find ways to lose; the manager throws the game away, the 1B of the inning throws the game away, someone makes a key error, or a reliever doesn’t have it. It’s not cause to give up. (Of course, if you’ve truly given up I don’t know what you’re doing watching games or reading blogs) It’s not often teams run away with the division in May. Even great teams. Even championship teams. There is a lot of good, and fun baseball coming. Don’t let a couple of bad games get you down.

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Fantasy Baseball Management: Simyard.com

I discussed this last year, but it’s worth mentioning again. I play this game on line called Simyard. It’s similar to fantasy baseball, except it’s more of a management simulation. You get a team full of players with various stats, not real MLB players, and then you set up a lineup and rotation and play them against other teams.

From Simyard

Then there is the option of leagues. You can join a league with other managers and go through the whole process of building a team like a GM would, signing new players from free agents, the minor leagues, or other teams. Each month, which equates to a baseball year, you play a full schedule of 162 games and follow that up with however many rounds of playoffs your league is set up for. You can build a stadium, set up seating prices, and earn money towards paying players and ultimately becoming one of the dominant franchises. It’s a close-knit and friendly place, and the owner is actively involved and even runs a team of his own. (of course, it’s a crappy team..) We have an irc channel on coldfront where we hang out.

From Simyard
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Aggressive? Or Timid?

I’m not ready to jump off a ledge yet. Yes, we haven’t gotten many hits with runners in scoring position, but it is a small sample, and it is April. We’ve gotten a lot of guys on base.(Our on base percentage with runners on is a little better.) Sometimes we stage two out rallies where a guy or two gets a hit, and often guys like that get stranded. I’m not as worried about the number of guys left on, because you do get things like that when a team gets a lot of hits and never gives up even with two outs. Creating opportunities to score is the first part to having big games.
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Still, this team doesn’t feel right. Supposedly Manuel is preaching aggression, but I don’t see it. Other than trying to make Castillo swing at more pitches, I’d say this team is timid. Also, wasn’t the big plus with Dan Warthen and Oliver Perez is that he let Ollie be Ollie? Why is this not okay with Castillo? I worry that trying to make him into a hitter that he isn’t, could hurt. He’s been a successful player in his career, why mess with that? The Mets have way too little stolen base attempts for a team that is supposedly aggressive.

The Mets are on pace for 122 stolen base attempts, compared with 174 last year. Before that is was 246, 181, and 193 in 2005. This team is a team that’s always used it’s running game to it’s advantage. When was the last time you saw Reyes dancing off third trying to entice a balk? Putting the runners in motion, like yesterday with Omir Santos up, is not what I’d call aggression. It’s almost defeatist. Manuel seems to manage like he expects failure. He doesn’t think Santos, even though he’s two for three, or Reed as a pinch hitter are going to come through, so he tries to manufacture something. The same way he does when he goes matchup happy and starts pinch hitting for Church or Castro/Santos. Church has shown some ability to hit lefties, but if you keep taking him out against lefties, he’s going to have less practice at it, and you’ll start putting ideas in his head about failure. I brought up a similar thing about Feliciano. If you never let him pitch to righties, how is he supposed to figure out how to get them out? It’s not like he wasn’t a big pitcher for us in years past, so what happened? Actually, the data doesn’t look that horrible for Feliciano’s splits, and it also looks like that he pitches against as many righties and lefties. So if he’s really supposed to be a lefty specialist, he’s being used wrong.

Then again, the Mets won two of three. They dropped the ball on the third game, but you can’t actually win them all. (I’m assuming they can win 156 however) Beat the Cardinals, Beat the Nationals and maybe we can start putting this small sample size problems behind us.