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Reversal of Fortunes

I don’t usually do game recaps, and I don’t usually buy into “they would’ve lost this one last year” arguments trying to compare this team to that one.  This game was too much fun not to keep talking about though.

 

Halladay gave up a hard hit ball to lead off the game that required a great catch to turn into an out, but after that he was pretty steady until the 6th when a tight zone and good patience by Andres Torres with two outs led to a walk.  Nieuwenhuis laced a single into left and that brought up our uncrowned Captain.  David Wright rocketed one down the line that Mayberry misplayed off the side wall and two runs scored to tie the game.  Meanwhile Jon Niese battled some control problems but only allowed those two early runs through five innings.

 

The Mets would battle and fight through the next couple of innings, having runners on base and not scoring and allowing runners to reach base but not allowing them to score.  Josh Thole may have suffered a concussion, which sucks.

 

If you believe in poetic moments and turning points in seasons there was a huge one in the 7th inning.  With two on and one out Hunter Pence grounded to second base where Daniel Murphy flipped to Justin Turner who threw to first.  Shane Victorino slid a good three feet wide of the bag to take out Justin Turner and was ruled out for interference.   You may recall a similar play in late August of 2007.  It was the top of the ninth in Philadelphia with Marlon Anderson on first and Endy Chavez on third with one out and the Phillies leading 3-2.  Shawn Green grounded out to shortstop and Anderson went in hard at second, keeping Rollins from turning the double play and allowing Endy Chavez to tie the game.  Except Anderson was ruled to have interfered on a play much less clear cut than last nights.  Instead the Mets lost that game, got swept in a four game series against the Phillies, and failed to completely bury them in the division.  That one game may have been the difference between the playoffs and what ultimately happened in 2007.  Who knows how things are different from there.  Now the Mets get one of those calls that helps them win a game and go back to three games over .500 and 2.5 games ahead of the last place Philadelphia Phillies.  Is it karma? The universe correcting it’s course back to one that features the Mets establishing a dynasty and perennial playoff team?  Is it the turning point in a season that the Mets were universally picked to finish last but haven’t been under .500 at any point?

 

Probably not.  It was a great win culminated by Jordany Valdespin collecting his first major league hit in epic fashion with a 3-run home run off one of the game’s best closers.  It instantly became a Mets classic, but it’s still just one win in May.  The Mets will face so many ups and downs and turning points this season that it’ll be near impossible to pinpoint this game in May when it all started going right.  Would the Mets have won this game last year?  Well..maybe.  After all, many people compared this game to the Omir Santos game winning home run off of Papelbon back in 2009.  2009’s team doesn’t seem like one that you’d describe as resilient, having been the first losing season since 2004.

 

Still, there’s a lot to like about this game.  The Mets hung in there against a tough pitcher.  Jon Niese didn’t let the wheels fall off.  Except for Torres misplay in the first allowing Jimmy Rollins an extra base, they played pretty crisp defense.  They made pitches when they needed to and exploited the Phillies weaknesses.  They took a four game losing streak and responded with a three game, and counting, winning streak.

 

Is this season going to be a gusty team that fights and scraps to stay above .500?  A scrappy contender that finds a way to get at least a wild card spot?  An overachieving bunch of rookies that show promise but ultimately revert to what they were predicted to be?   It’s too early to tell, but no matter where it winds up it’s going to be a fun ride.

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Mets Ticket Giveaway!

It’s time for May’s Mets Ticket Giveaway, courtesy of Seatcrew.com.  This week Optimistic Mets Fan is giving away two tickets to a game against the Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday May 15th.

 

Seatcrew.com is a secondary ticket market similar to Stubhub with an important twist: There are no ticket fees for the buyer or the seller, which means lower prices on tickets for you.  For a full write-up, and a list of which games you have a chance to win tickets to, check out my post from the offseason.

 

So here’s what you have to do to win.  First, you need to have a registered Seatcrew account. All you need is an email address.  Second, you need to predict how many hits David Wright will hit against the Phillies in three games.  This means you need to have your guess in to contest@ceetar.com before Wright’s first AB tonight.  There is one catch: Since this is an Optimistic fan site, we’ll be playing by reverse Price is Right rules.  This means the person closest to the total without going UNDER is the winning entry.  If you guess 4 hits, and David Wright hits 5, your guess is ineligible.  Be Optimistic.

 

If it helps, the Phillies are scheduled to start Roy Halladay, Joe Blanton, and Cliff Lee returning from the DL.  My personal guess would be 6 hits, with 2 home runs if you’d like to use that as a guide.  Good Luck!

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Putting the Sweep In Perspective

The bats of the New York MetsThe Mets are now 2-1 in series sweeps.  It’s never a good thing when you get swept, and it doesn’t even matter who the opponent is.  Obviously you tend to eye weaker teams with the thought that you’re supposed to get a few free wins off them, but that’s not how baseball works.  The Mets ran into the Astros while they were playing well, with the back of the rotation, with a still struggling Ike Davis, and with a couple of players affected by the flu.  It’d be as foolish to eye these three games and use it as confirmation bias that the Mets are a last place quality team as it would be to take the 3-0 sweep of the Braves as evidence that the Mets will win the division.

 

So it’s time for the Mets to crawl home and lick their wounds, reassess the fifth spot in the rotation, and maybe the last bullpen spot as well.  Meanwhile the Yankees just lost two of three to the team picked to finish last in their division.  The Phillies and Braves traded bullpen explosions through 11 innings before Chipper Jones made it 15-13, final.  Roy Halladay started that game btw.  Chris Schwinden or Roy Halladay, the result was the same.

 

Perspective.  Sweeps suck and the Mets have a lot of adjustments to make.  They’ve been knocked to the mat, but they’ve got plenty of time to stand back up and start swinging.  They’ve got a day to dust themselves off and go back on attack mode.  Certainly they could take this blow and keep reeling, but I think the Mets have shown a tendency to bounce back pretty well under Terry Collins. They’re due for some home runs, and hopefully as the weather warms up a little and Ike warms up a little, they’ll start hitting more.  Scoring more, winning more, and hopefully pitching better to boot.  May starts out 0-2, but plenty of time to salvage that.  The six games against the Phillies will be important in distancing themselves from them in the standings so that if and when they get Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Cliff Lee back the Mets have some breathing room.

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Quick and Easy Guide to Mets Spring Training

Spring Training Drills, March 18th, 2011 by CeetarThis isn’t a guide to every last detail of Port St. Lucie, but I’d like to share my observations about watching the Mets down there.  Tonight is the first televised broadcast, and also the first audio broadcast.

 

The most interesting part, in my opinion, is the morning workouts.  These occur pretty much every day, even on non-game days, on the fields behind Digital Domain Park.  You’ll see the entire camp full of players out there, except ones that may be playing in an away game, doing workouts and drills.  Minor and major leaguers in all shades of Mets uniforms wearing all sorts of different numbers.  You’ll see guys you’ve never heard of, even if you pay pretty close attention to the minor leagues.  They’ll do all sorts of interesting drills and you’ll see the coaches and managers barking orders and instructions.  You’ll get an inside look at how players prepare for games and seasons.  You’ll see them practice learning the signs and just doing baseball things.  Sometimes the minor leaguers will start playing a game near the end of the session, this is normally the time the regular players retreat to Digital Domain Park to prepare for the regular game.  Usually you’ll be asked to leave, but sometimes you can catch an inning or two.

 

You can get autographs if you’re persistent, but during workouts these guys are mostly working so you’ll have to be quick and paying attention to who may have a moment.  They’ll have to walk by you to get from field to field, and often this is when they’ll sign.  Another good time to get autographs is after games, particularly if it’s an away game and the players are headed back to a bus or their cars if it’s close. When the Mets travel to nearby Jupiter to play the Cardinals or the Marlins, many players drive.  Many people looking for autographs wait in the walkway between the players’ exit and their parking lot.  This is also a good way to get a look at what cars players drive.  Autographs are there to be had, so if that’s your thing you should have no problem.  Normal rules apply; if you’re a cute girl or a kid you’ve got the best shot.

 

Spring Training tickets are often not expensive, and it’s a chance to get seats that are really close that would be virtually impossible to get at a Major League park.  The atmosphere is so much more relaxed and casual and it’s a fun time all around.  Both years I went I sat first row in front of the Mets bullpen, literally within touching distance of all the pitchers as they warmed up to go in.  Close enough that they can here what you’re saying to the people you’re with.    There are season ticket holders in Florida, but there are still seats available mere rows behind home plate too. And it’s roughly 10% of the cost of a Major League stadium.

 

Another fun activity that’s probably more common in places like Port St. Lucie than Tampa Bay is player-spotting out on the town.  Most people know about Duffy’s, a chain restaurant with a bowling alley attached down the road from the Spring Training Complex.  SNY films some segments there, and it’s a common place for players to hang out too.    The Mets do bowling nights on Sunday evenings, so if you want to watch baseball players playing a different sport that’s the perfect time.  Port St. Lucie is not a tiny place, but it’s not a city so there are only a limited amount of places to go for a nightlife experience.   Another good place is Vine and Barley which is a wine and beer bar down the road.  The last time I was down there I ran into Scott Hairston, Justin Turner, and Kai Gronauer, and I’m pretty sure there were one or two players down there I didn’t recognize.  Even on a non-baseball front I suggest this place, as it’s got self-serve wine tastings and an excellent beer menu.

 

The worst part of Spring Training is when you return home.  You’re so ready for baseball that it feels wrong that there are no longer games you can attend.   Still, it’s great time and a must-do for baseball fans.  It’s baseball and warm weather and a great way to start to get excited about the new season.  If you’re headed down this year, have a great time and tweet lots of pictures!

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There Is No Replacement For Jose Reyes

There is an interesting juxtaposition among Mets fans that talk about things like trading Wright or letting Reyes walk.  The same people that justify this with statements about not competing for years and being in rebuilding mode seem offended that some (I’d say many) Mets fans suggest they’ll be much less interested in the Mets if Reyes leaves.

 

There’s always a lot of comparison, as well as attempts to avoid comparison, to the Yankees with the Mets.  They share a city and compete for the same entertainment dollar.   The common rhetoric among Mets fans is that the Yankees fans are front-running morons that only care about yelling about how many rings they’ve won and that Mets fans are truer fans that love the team, good or bad.   If a vastly diverse group of millions of Mets fans can agree on anything, it’s that Jose Reyes is a talented baseball player that’s fun to watch.   At what point does it stop being about watching your favorite players play your favorite game and start becoming about being a consistent winner?

 

What is baseball without the season, with the ups and downs of a 162 game scheduled filled with bad breaks and huge hits and the ebbs and flows of stress and emotion?  I don’t follow the Mets for optimal lineup constructions and high-value controlled commodities.  I watch the Mets because I love baseball and I’ve formed an attachment to the players that have worn the uniform year after year.  Jose Reyes is one of those players.  He’s a life-long Met and it’s hard to imagine him anywhere else.  The Mets have other good players, but there is something special about Jose Reyes and his fun-loving attitude.  Perhaps it’s the way he seems to love playing the game as much as we love watching him play it.

 

Sure it’s possible to make arguments about injury risks and long contracts that suggest perhaps giving Reyes too much money or too many years may be detrimental to the long term success of the franchise, but frankly I’d rather take my chances with Reyes.  Those risks exist with every player in every circumstance, and if you’re not going to take a chance with a fan-favorite and top of the line player at a sparse position, what are you even doing?   Reyes is already bordering on legendary Mets status, and that’s not something that comes along every day.   Mike Piazza came here when he was great, Dwight Gooden left in 1994 and Darryl Strawberry before him.  Ignoring that there is long-term financial value to having legends to invite back to Citi Field in the future, do we really want to let one walk away for what’s some kind of  ‘smart process of value contracts and prospect development’?  A couple more years and the Mets record book will be Jose Reyes’ biography, with a guest appearance by David Wright.

 

The Mets have struggled for years now with collapses followed by injuries followed by just about everything else.  Now you want to take the most exciting player on the team away too?   While I’ll always be a Mets fan, there comes a point when it’s hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel.  It’s easy to say that we need things to stabilize, for bad contracts to work their way off the payroll and for prospects to mature and contribute at the fraction of the cost, but in the meantime other teams are playing baseball and competing for the postseason and doing all sorts of wonderful things.  Taking seasons off is not the way to build a perennial contender.  Every year the Mets spend in rebuilding mode, defined by me as letting Reyes go and not replacing him with at least as much talent, is a year that customers find other ways to spend their entertainment dollar.  Some will go to the Yankees, some will switch to other sports.   Some will stop watching with their kids who will spend more time on video games, movies, or something else entirely.   Husbands will take their wives out to a nice dinner instead of to Citi Field, because maybe without Reyes, and winning, they don’t feel it’s worth the traffic and the rushing home from work.

 

Building a winner will eventually repair the damage, but even if you could guarantee repeated success it takes time to rebuild a fan base.  The Yankees had a healthy amount of fans show up, but even in 2000 they were 8th in total attendance.  The difference was that payrolls hadn’t yet skyrocketed to the levels they are at now.  The Yankees payroll in 2000 would be  the 13th highest payroll in 2011.  It was still possible for teams to maintain a rebuilding payroll and keep some talented stars while keeping revenues at or above payroll.  The way I see it, the Mets can’t easily get their payroll down that low, so they need to work on keeping revenues up.  Reyes can’t do it all by himself, but coupled with the right moves he could be the difference between the Mets raising attendance to 2.6 million or it dropping to 1.7.   Just in ticket prices alone, a swing like that more than pays Reyes salary per year.  Factor in revenue associated with advertising prices based on TV ratings and fans in the seats viewing them on the walls and it’s an even starker difference.   I find it hard to believe that having Jose Reyes playing baseball in New York can’t be profitable, and it’s certainly possible, even likely, that Jose Reyes can be a part of the success even four years from now.

 

There is never a guarantee that smart moves focused on the long term will lead to continued success.  There is no formula Sandy Alderson can follow that means the Mets will definitely be a perennial contender in 2014 and beyond.  Prospects, even highly touted ones, hurt themselves or flame out.  Free agent acquisitions that look like can’t misses age badly or under perform in a new environment.   Other teams in the division and/or league do a better job, or get luckier, in scouting and signing players and suddenly no one knows what the solution is for out-performing them.  It’s not hard to get into a cycle of suck like the Pittsburgh Pirates, constantly looking for All-Star prospects that maybe have a good year or two and than take off for greener pastures while the team struggles to even play at .500.  The best you can do is put yourself in a situation every year where the right set of circumstances gets you into the playoffs.  For the Mets that means keeping Jose Reyes.  It probably also means hoping Johan Santana stays on the field and is still pretty good at pitching, and that other players stay healthy as well.   It may be a long shot, but if you don’t keep yourself in the game you often miss opportunities.

 

I was at the game this year when Jose Reyes felt that first hamstring tightness and left the game.  It was a packed house for a Subway Series game, and Tejada jogging out to shortstop was like a punch in the gut.  I watched the rest of the game in a daze, barely caring about the result.   Reyes had such a great first half that there were road games in May that I was reminding myself to make sure I turned the game on in time, because Reyes would lead off and I might miss something special.  There are reasons to watch bad teams because even bad or average players hit for cycles, throw pitching gems, and smash home runs.  They can stage remarkable comebacks and rock opposing aces and there’s always the looming possibility that someone will throw that no-hitter.  Without Jose Reyes the chances of something magical happening go down.

 

Faith and Fear in Flushing, in an awards presentation to Jose Reyes, makes similar points and sums up my feelings pretty well in this quote.

except for habit and a lifetime of devotion, I can’t think of a good, rational reason to get squarely behind this team if you’re not on it.

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A Week Later: Hopeful for the 2012 Mets

No Met has made an error, hit a home run, or struck out looking in over a week.  With a week of the offseason under my belt to let the highs and lows of emotion mellow out with time, it’s time to take a closer look at what transpired in 2011 and what hope there is for 2012.

 

The team played harder than was expected.   They didn’t give in, whether because of a tough loss, a rough week, or a poor start to a game.  They’d battle back late in games, and bounce back from a tough loss with a solid win.  There were plenty of times late in the season where they did seem to be going through the motions a little bit, but they seemed to bounce back from that as well.  Hopefully 2012 avoids any long periods of being out of it and prevents the team from getting complacent.

 

The bullpen, while successful for some stretches of times, was mostly a failure.  Part of this was the trade of Francisco Rodriguez, part of it was the depression of Taylor Buchholz.   Part had to do with the starters rarely giving length, as was the main problem in April.   The Mets are aware of this problem, and with some good scouting and analysis, there are relievers out there that you can get for reasonable prices.   I would expect at least 2-3 new faces in the pen to compliment the ones that stay.  The Mets lost a lot of games late last year, and strengthening the pen will go a long way in 2012.

 

The starting rotation is what’s going to be the big deal in 2012.  This is what’s going to make or break the team as a contender.   Niese and Dickey are locks.  Mike Pelfrey is also pretty much a lock, although he does become a trade candidate as well.  I wouldn’t be against keeping Capuano, but I suspect he’s priced himself out of what the Mets want to pay him.  Johan Santana is supposed to be ready to go as normal during Spring Training, but I’d put the certainty of that at somewhere around 75%, and that may be optimistic.  Right now he’s penciled in, and it won’t be until February before we know if he’ll be able to progress normally towards an Opening Day start.   Therefore the Mets need a backup plan.  Adding Santana would certainly help, but it’s likely the Mets need to upgrade further.   Finding another quality starter and reassigning Dillon Gee to be depth for Santana could be the way to go.  However, Dillon Gee may have earned a major league job.   If the Mets can get to the regular season with a healthy Santana, and everyone else, having to send Gee to the minors to start the season would be a nice problem to have.  From there they could reexplore trading Mike Pelfrey.  Other teams will deal with injuries, and many teams could make good use of a guy that will throw 200 innings of slightly above league average value pretty consistently.

 

Then there is the offense.   The offense was very good last year, despite few home runs and a lot of injuries.  2012’s hinges on Reyes staying, but if he does the Mets offense again looks to be very potent.  The biggest concern would be if Pagan can shake off the bad defensive year, and if Duda can take a step forward out in RF.   Thole needs to improve as well, and there’s something to be said for having a veteran right-handed catcher to work with him.  The Mets are discussing moving the walls in a bit in right and left, which will probably help the home run numbers, although they may shrink the gaps a little bit.   It looks like the Mets should still have a top-flight offense next year, capable of dealing damage to opposing pitchers.

 

The Mets could be competitive next year.  A lot hinges on Reyes re-signing and Johan turning up healthy.  The Mets do need to revamp the bullpen, sign another starter, and address the bench, but those are all reasonable expectations.  It’ll be an interesting offseason, and hopefully it will be a launching pad for a good season to come.

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Baseball’s Over, Time For Vegas

Disclaimer: I’ve truly left for the airport.  If the Mets do something crazy like play a 20 inning final game and are still playing at the time I’ve scheduled this, read this tomorrow.

 

I find it somewhat poetic that as the Mets threw the last pitch of their 2011 season I was arriving at JFK to board a flight to Las Vegas to gamble and drink the sorrows of the season away.   Last year I got married within a week of the end of the season and went on my honeymoon shortly after.  When I got back to paying attention to the Mets Omar and Jerry were gone and the Phillies and Yankees had been eliminated from the playoffs.

 

I’ll still be posting some, mostly scheduled stuff, but here’s what I want to happen while I’m gone.  The Phillies and Yankees are bounced in the first round and I can enjoy the rest of the playoffs when I get back from vacation.  Dan Warthen has been let go, in favor of someone that’s going to be better.  The Mets have worked out a deal with Jose Reyes, and he’ll remain a Met for a long time.   Johan Santana has pitched some in winter ball and has no set backs.

 

This probably all won’t come to be, but one can dream.  After I’m in Vegas I’ll be in San Diego for a couple of days.  It’ll be my third trip to that city and I have yet to see a game at Petco Park.  I’ve toured it though, and it’s a great place.  Look for randomly tweeted pictures from around Petco next week during the day.  I’ll return the following weekend for a bachelor party, a wedding, and my own anniversary before diving back into baseball.  It’s going to be an interesting offseason for the New York Mets this year.

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Only Two Games: Enjoy Them

There are only two Mets games left on the season.  Tune in and watch or listen to them.   There are only two and we’ll be missing the Mets before you know it.  The DVR’d episode of How I Met Your Mother will wait.

 

Watch Jose Reyes compete for a batting title.  See some of the young guys make a case for inclusion on the 2012 team.  Nick Evans looks like he’s got a better than fair shot at making the team next year.  Jason Pridie is finish strong, perhaps making a case as the 4th outfielder.

 

It’s not a given that Reyes returns.  This could  be his last two games.  Last night could’ve been the last time David Wright will have driven in Jose Reyes.  If you make it out to Citi Field, make sure to give him a big hand.

 

It’s a long way to April 5th.  There will be a lot of unpleasant stories.  A lot of “The Mets can’t do that” and “The Mets can’t afford that” type stories.  They’re starting already, but at least we have two games left to enjoy before all the rumor and speculation.

 

Let’s Go Mets!

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2011 Mets fading into the Sunset

The local football teams played Sunday night, marking the beginning of the end of baseball.  With the Mets eliminated from the NL East and almost eliminated from the Wild Card race, Mets related traffic and discussion has slowed to a crawl outside of the die-hard in Metsopotamia.

 

But we’re going to miss them when they’re gone.  The New York Mets now have as many games remaining as the New York Giants; another sign of the end.  Time is ticking down, the Mets are playing poor, sloppy and uninspired baseball and even Reyes isn’t hitting like he was for most of the rest of the season.

 

As much as it’s not much fun to watch lately, I’m going to watch.  You never know when something crazy will happen, and this team probably still has a couple of fun wins in them.  I’m going out to Citi Field tonight for Star Wars night, which should be interesting at least.

 

Much thanks to the Mets for including Optimistic Mets Fan in the final issue of Mets Magazine. It’s very cool to see this blog in the Mets program. If you happen to buy the final issue of the season, flip over to page 153 and check it out. Then turn to page 154 for Faith and Fear in Flushing‘s entry. I love that there is a Spanish translation as well, although anyone that needs it isn’t going to find the site too readable. Maybe I need a ‘translate to Spanish’ widget for Fanáticos Optimista de los Mets?

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Links From Metsopotamia

Shannon at Metspolice notices a decrease in Mets related traffic and twittering and ponders if anyone’s still here.  Well, I am.  It’s still baseball, it’s still the Mets, it’s still Citi Field.  I’m going to at least two more games this year.  I’m going to enjoy watching Duda seem to become a serious major league slugger, watching Reyes and Wright be Reyes and Wright, and looking for signs from guys like Bay, Pagan, Thole, Parnell, etc to see what we can do about next year.  You know you’re going to spend all offseason yelling about some of these guys, at least be informed and see how they finish the season with your own eyes.

Kerel of On The Black discusses Google Plus (add me to your circle if you like) and how well it worked for his weekly Mets chat with Dave Doyle of Mets Report.
Randy at The Apple says a humorous goodbye to the err, umm.. *pickastadiumname* the Marlins play in. 

In a fanpost at Amazin’ Avenue, nerfan breaks down the top 10 completely wrong arguments about the Mets.  Also known as ‘debunking sports radio’.