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The King In The North Of Queens

Confirmed: R.A. Dickey does indeed come to bat to the theme song from the HBO series the Game of Thrones.

 

What Dickey has been doing on the mound is so amazing it changes the narrative around the team and dominates the story line.   Even the usually wordy R.A. has run out of things to stay to describe the results he’s getting, instead saying he’s going to leave it to us to describe and just continue going out there and doing his work.

 

The Mets had just gotten swept, again, coming into this series with the Orioles.  This was the farthest thing from your mind watching the game.  There was no downward spiral, no wheels coming off the train, just R.A. Dickey dazzlingly darting knuckleballs around Oriole bats.  Wilson Betemit got a hit in the 5th and ceased our worry about the no-hitter, and Ike Davis got a grand slam in the 6th that ceased our worry about losing the game.  From there on it was pure joy.

 

The Mets have a legitimate Cy Young candidate as the season nears it’s halfway point.  They probably have the All-Star Game’s starting pitcher.  They have an MVP candidate and a Rookie of the Year candidate.   If they could find someone to compete for Rolaids Relief Man there would be nothing this team couldn’t do.

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R.A. Dickey When It’s Not Raining

R.A. Dickey had one really bad start this year. It was against the Atlanta Braves in the rain.   Normally I’d say you can’t throw out bad starts, because they still count.  That’s true; that bad start will always be on his record, will always count in the standings, and will always have cost the Mets a chance to win that day.

 

In evaluating Dickey’s performance, and in looking forward to when he next takes the mound, it’s a little bit more unfair to factor that game in.  The rain played a huge factor in the outcome and in his ability to command his pitches.  If it’s not raining Dickey isn’t going to pitch like he did in Atlanta.  The biggest cause of his bad game was the rain affecting the break of the pitch, not Dickey himself.

 

So that said, what does R.A. Dickey’s pitching line look like without that start?

 

10-0 record in 85.2 IP

1.47 ERA via 14 earned runs.

.875 WHIP.

17BB and 85 K for a 5 K/BB and an 8.93 K/9.

 

 

That seems pretty good.

 

 

 

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R. A. Dickey: The King In The North!

Saw this post in The Academy of Sports Management about R.A. Dickey.  He’s a big fan of the Game Of Thrones, and since we know he’s a reader, perhaps the entire Song of Ice and Fire series.   Dickey has changed his intro music to the theme song from the HBO show.

 

That’s pretty cool.  The post mentions that some Mets fans have taken to calling him “The King In The North!”, which is what Rob Stark’s followers use to hail their new king.  This is the first time I’ve heard it, but I’m always a fan of the Mets playing along with popular trends.  They should play the “The King In The North!” clip after every Dickey strikeout at Citi Field.  Before you inquire about rights to do so, remember plenty of teams already play clips of movies and shows and songs.  The Mets frequently play that clip from the movie Network about opening your window and shouting.

 

Maybe some fans could find a nice corner to make a Dickey K-corner,  but instead of K’s, the Stark’s dire wolf sigil from the show.  Or we could shout “The King In The North!” ourselves after strikeouts or strong innings but that might be harder to get going.  We could probably get it going on Twitter though.

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New York Mets Episode ’11: The Nats Strike Back

As you’re likely aware, the Mets had Star Wars night last night to celebrate the release of the 6-part series on Blu-Ray.  They did a very good job with it, considering they only announced it a week or two ago.  I started a hashtag on Twitter yesterday called #MetsStarWarsQuotes, and I’ll mix in some of the funny ones between the pictures below.  Also check out Mediagoon’s coverage on the event over at Metspolice today. 

The free T-shirt pick up was in the bullpen plaza, so that’s where I headed first.  The Star Wars guys were doing a costume contest with kids, and were there when I arrived with Mr. Met. 

Aren't you a little short to be a relief pitcher? #MetsStarWarsQuotes

More after the break.

Continue reading “New York Mets Episode ’11: The Nats Strike Back”

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Keep Doing That

Swing and a Miss

The Mets starting pitcher, R.A. Dickey pitched as well as, or better than, the Astros pitcher Bud Norris.  Dickey pitched eight innings and gave up four runs, for a 4.5 ERA on the day, and Norris pitched six innings and gave up three runs, also equaling a 4.5 ERA.   I’d give the tie-breaker to length, especially since relievers are generally not as good as starters.

The Mets also out-hit the Astros. The Mets got 12 hits, with three extra base hits, and the Astros got eight, with three extra base hits.

Of course, when all was said and done the Mets made a variety of mistakes and lost the game.  The Mets cannot afford to lose these games that are practically handed to them, but if they continue to pitch and hit like they did today, they WILL win most of those games. What they need to do is identify what they’re doing wrong that’s giving them such a low amount of runs per hit, and why the opponents hits seem to be worth so much more. 

Not bunting with only three precious outs left on the first pitch with one of the fastest guys in the game on first base would also go a long way towards not losing.

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Play Two, Win Two

Something you’ll hear a lot today:

“It’s hard to win both games of a doubleheader”

Don’t listen to them. This is just an excuse to temper expectations. The Mets can win both ends of the doubleheader today, if they pitch and hit the ball. Dickey on the mound for the first game with a healthy nail should be the starting point for a win. In my mind you never settle for a situation that includes losing, and accepting a split would be just that. If the Mets win the first game, should they just go home and concede the second? It’s hard to win both anyway right, so why burn out the pitchers? If you concede you solve the “Who pitches Friday?” problem as well, slotting in Capuano.

The Mets split the first doubleheader in Citi Field history on July 30th, 2009 against the Rockies. They swept the Rockies in a doubleheader on 8/19/04 in Colorado.

It’s still early and the Mets are still getting used to each other and the new leadership and the new season. Obviously you’d have preferred a rip-roaring start to this putrid mess of a homestand, but they’ve got a big series against the Braves this weekend and then six games at home against bad teams. Plenty of time to get the ship righted.

Upcoming Milestones:

Carlos Beltran is 1 double away from sole possession of 8th place on the Mets All-Time doubles list. He’s at 182 right now, tied with Cleon Jones.

Reyes, tied with Edgardo Alfonzo at 1136 hits for fourth in franchise history, needs 1 for sole possession. He’ll have a tough time catching up to #3, David Wright with 1163, but they’re both poised to pass Cleon Jones’ 1188 this summer.

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Ceetar’s Mets Prop Bets: Make Your Picks

Here’s a list of some normal, and some abnormal, bets on the Mets this year.  Purely for fun, feel free to leave your picks in the comments. or suggest some other good over/unders.
Reyes
1. over/under .345 OBP (I suspect this may be over/under Met in 2012)
2. over/under 142 games played.
3. over/under 60 SB

Wright
4. over/under 30 HR
5. over/under 150 Ks

Bay
6. over/under 25 HR

Beltran
7. over/under 130 games played
8. over/under 25 HR
9. over/under 10 SB
10. Will Beltran or Chase Utley have more home runs this year?

K-Rod
11. over/under 55 games finished

Ike Davis
12. over/under .275 avg

13. over/under 23 HR

Jon Niese
14. over/under 200Ks

15. Who will start more games?
a. Johan Santana
b. Dillon Gee
c. Chris Young

16. Who has a better year, R.A. Dickey, or Cole Hamels?

17a. Will Emaus be the starting second baseman all year?
17b. If no, is his replacement
A. On the team
B. In the minors
C. on another team
D. Not currently playing baseball
E. Luis Castillo

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Why The Mets Can Compete: The Starting Rotation

Don’t believe everything you hear: The New York Mets can compete for a division title this season.

The starting rotation for the Mets this year looks to be Mike Pelfrey, Jonathan Niese, R.A. Dickey, Chris Young, and Chris Capuano.  Those five are better than a lot of people give then credit for, but let’s start with the returning Mets from last year.

Mike Pelfrey

Year W L W-L% ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2010 15 9 .625 3.66 33 204.0 213 88 83 12 68 5 113 107 1.377 9.4 0.5 3.0 5.0 1.66
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Mike Pelfrey had a good year last year, and it’s not unreasonable to think he can have a comparable one.  He had one really bad month that he’ll need to avoid and work through, and hopefully another year of experience can help him do that.  He was one of the best pitchers in the game through April last year, and while he probably won’t be quite _that_ good again, if you balance it against him not being as bad as he was in July, the overall performance can probably be similar to what we see in the table above.  I think there is some hope that he can cut down on the walks and hits a little bit and maybe get better, but that remains to be seen.

R. A. Dickey

Year Age W L ERA G GS CG IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2010 35 11 9 2.84 27 26 2 174.1 165 62 55 13 42 104 138 1.187 8.5 0.7 2.2 5.4 2.48
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

R.A. Dickey came out of nowhere last season to have one of the best years in the league.  In fact his numbers are better than all of the pitchers on the Phillies sans Halladay, so all the talk of the Phillies having four aces and the Mets having none is a little silly.  The biggest question regarding Dickey is if last season was a one time deal.  Sandy Alderson doesn’t think so, and he gave Dickey a two year contract to prove it, and I don’t think so either.  It’s non unheard of for pitchers that utilize the knuckleball to suddenly find success later in their careers as Dickey has done.  Dickey has proven to be a very intelligent pitcher and really understands what’s going on on the mound.  He throws two knuckleballs and is able to change speeds with it.  His fastball isn’t even completely washed up, so when he does throw one, it reaches the mid 80s in velocity and doesn’t need just trickery to get past the hitter.  He was able to sustain success throughout the entire season last year, including multiple appearances against the same teams.  Also, his walk rate was surprisingly low for a knucklerballer.  Pitching to a 2.84 ERA might be a bit lofty, but he was also victimized by poor run support.  Perhaps a more potent offense gets the Mets more wins even if Dickey’s ERA rises slightly.

Jonathan Niese

Age W L ERA G CG IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
23 9 10 4.20 30 2 173.2 192 97 81 20 62 148 9 93 1.463 10.0 1.0 3.2 7.7 2.39
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Jonathan Niese is entering his second full season with the Mets, after a surprisingly good rookie year.  He hit a wall late in September, something he vows not to do in 2011.  He threw two complete games, and had a very nice 7.7 K/9 rate.  He really showed good command with his curveball, something you know no opponents are looking forward to facing.  I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect some improvement from Niese as he’s still a young pitcher learning and adjusting.  You’d like to see him give up a few less hits and walks overall, while utilizing his pitches to get more strikeouts.  He got 148 last year, and with a little improvement through a full season, he’s a guy that could reach 200.

Chris Young

Year Tm W L ERA ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
7 Seasons 48 34 3.80 109 1.209 7.4 1.1 3.5 7.8 2.21

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Chris Young has been injured a lot, but as you can see from his career line he’s a pretty good pitcher when he’s healthy.  The key is making sure he stays healthy, and can give the Mets numbers approximating his career line.  All indications out of Spring  Training are that he is healthy and pitching well.  If that means strengthening the pen so you don’t over-stress Young’s arm, or occasionally giving him extra rest, then the Mets should do it.  Young starts to make this rotation look pretty deep, and while he’s not going to overwhelm or blow anybody away, he gets the job done and induces a lot of weak contact.   Other options loom the longer we can keep him healthy, even if he doesn’t make it all season.  Johan Santana could return, Dillon Gee or another prospect or Buffalo starter could be throwing the ball really well and deserve a promotion.

Chris Capuano

Year W L ERA IP ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB Awards
6 Seasons 46 52 4.35 777.2 101 1.357 9.2 1.3 3.0 7.4 2.45
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Chris Capuano is not quite as impressive as Chris Young, but he’s got the benefit of having pitched enough last year to be over the “Is he healthy?” hump.  If he does make the rotation I’m happy with his ability to contribute to winning games, and I’d certainly take a healthy Capuano over most of the 5th best starters other teams are using.  In 66 innings last year, in the bullpen and the rotation, Capuano’s numbers were right around his career norms.  I’m hopeful with those 66 innings under his ‘new’ belt that he can get comfortable and have a quality year.   He’s healthy now, and maybe the lack of pitching of the last couple of years will actually mean his arm is fully healed and hasn’t been worn down by season after season of pitching strain.   Despite Chris Young probably being a better pitcher, I’m more confident that Capuano can stay on the field all season and win games for the New York Mets.

 

Injuries  and Depth

I’m not going to pretend that the Mets have a ton of depth to replace these guys if things go wrong.  Certainly if the Mets rotation misses more than a handful of starts here and there, there could be problems.  Pat Misch could be an emergency starter, but he’s league average at best.  Maybe Dillon Gee or another minor league prospect can come up and contribute if they’re forced into it, and maybe someone emerges later in the season if someone gets hurt.  There will be at least five starters in Buffalo, and presumably someone will warrant promotion at some point.

 

Then there is Johan Santana.  You would have to to think removing Santana from the rotation and adding Chris Capuano would be a net loss of games for the Mets, but it’s never as clear cut as that.  Actually, the Mets lost a lot of Santana’s games last year by scoring no runs when he gave up merely one.  If the Mets are hitting, couldn’t they win more games than that even if Capuano gives up three?  It’s perhaps unrealistic to expect Santana, coming off a anterior capsule tear, to contribute anything this year, but it’s not wrong to hope and wonder if he can return around the All-Star break and get stronger as the season reaches it’s conclusion.  All baseball seasons are full of uncertainty and risk, and while it’s certainly a risk that one of the Mets pitchers could injure themselves and hurt the Mets chances, there’s also the possibility that Santana returns and contributes down the stretch.

 

So as it stands right now, the Mets rotation looks pretty solid from top to bottom and is full of pitchers with talent and ability. They should keep the Mets in the game, and create opportunities for them to win those games with some offense.  The diversity of the staff plays into things as well; You’ve got a knuckleball, a curveball, a sinkerball, and two control pitchers.  That’s a lot of prep work for opposing lineups to do to try to keep on top of all the different looks they’ll see when they face the Mets.

https://picasaweb.google.com/115206422599450453015/319NatsAtMets#5586007174901737954
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Debunking Pessimism

I stumbled across this extremely negative post on the Mets through some Google alerts.  At first I thought it would end up being a Philly blog, but nope. So here’s his five reasons why the Mets will suck post is way off the mark.
 

Spring training games began over the weekend, reminding us all how terrible the Mets will be this year.  Fittingly, Luis Castillo booted a ball at second base yesterday. Way to set the tone for the new season, Luis.

 

Here are my top 5 reasons why the Mets will be terrible this year.

Yes, I’m sure Castillo booting a ball in practice just doomed the Mets all season. Real players never actually make mistakes in Spring Training. Nevermind that Scott Hairston hit two home runs. This is just an excuse to pick on Castillo, who might not even make the team.

5- Ownership: Between borrowing $25 million from Major League Baseball, looking for minority ownership, and facing a multi-million dollar law suit, it will be a distraction all season. If the Wilpons sell the team, maybe it will make them less terrible, but still not good.

I can’t tell you that the Madoff stuff is a positive in any way, but it’s hardly going to be a distraction that causes the Mets to fail.  Wright’s not going to be worrying about the state of the lawsuit while he’s standing out at third base or at the plate.  They won’t even have to talk about it with the press, they’ve all said what they can say and their business is not finance, it’s baseball.  The state of the finances is not going to have much of an effect on the play on the field.  The only real thing it might do is prevent Alderson from adding pieces around the trade deadline, but so far there is no word that it will.  

4- Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez: It’s March 1, and for some reason they are still on the team. Perez got bombed in his first spring training game and Castillo is abysmal. Sadly he could actually win the starting second base position. It is unbelievable the Mets do not have anyone better than Castillo. Please cut your losses. I would rather have Ike Davis play first and second at the same time.

They’re on the team because they can’t lose the Mets games in March.  Whether or not they make the team will solely be based on merit, and it’s not looking good for either of them.  The players that help the Mets win will make the team, and therefore these two players will not be why they suck.  Reyes and Davis do have pretty good range, but I don’t think it’s enough to cover second base too. Plus, the rules don’t allow for only eight players in the lineup.  

3- Carlos Beltran playing right field: How long until he complains about it? I give it a month. Just imagine if he gets off to a bad start on offense. I know what the excuse will be.

#blamebeltran.  This pretty much debunks the whole post right here doesn’t it?  Never mind that he voluntarily moved there or that he’s not a complainer or an excuse maker.  A more valid question is how much regular rest is he going to need, and how well do those knees hold up?  Still, he’s been taking batting practice, and he should be ready to go as a hitter.  This should help prevent a slow start offensively at least.  Carlos Beltran continues to be underappreciated.

2- The NL East: The Phillies are probably the best team in baseball, which is not even fair, but the Braves and Marlins are better than last year too. The Mets are closer to the Nationals.

Just stating it doesn’t make it so. Probably? What if they’re not?  What if someone gets hurt? Their offense no longer looks formidable, Utley hasn’t even played yet and it’s looking more and more likely that Wilson Valdez may be starting for them, and they don’t even know what scrub or under-prepared prospect they’re going to throw out there in right field.  What if they don’t score runs when they pitch these great games, and what if age catches up with them?   The Marlins are not very good.  They’ve got some pitching, but it’s hardly amazing and they’re fielding a AAA offense outside of a couple of guys.  The Mets are capable of being in the thick of things just with their offense and with Pelfrey, Dickey and Niese doing what they did last year.

1- The Pitching Staff:  With Johan out until God knows when, Mike Pelfrey is the ace of the staff. Enough said. The Mets are depending on RA Dickey to repeat what he did last season, which is insane. I can’t even tell you who the 4th and 5th starters are: Chris Young?, Chris Capuano?, Dilon Gee? Oliver Perez??? Who the hell knows. As for the bullpen, talk about a disaster. Hopefully K-Rod won’t get arrested again or injure himself while beating up an old man. I honestly can’t even tell you who else is in the bullpen, so I have no further comments.

Enough said?  Sure, I could agree with that.  Mike Pelfrey was basically the best pitcher in baseball last April.  He had a horrible July, and it’s important that he minimizes that this year, but to dismiss him as crap is silly.  Why is it insane to expect Dickey to be as good as last year?  Did you really watch him all last year, and listen to him talk about pitching, and deduce that it was a fluke? It wasn’t.  He’s learned and adapted, and crafted his knuckleball to be a dangerous weapon.  It’s certainly possible he’s not as good, but the dropoff won’t be that extreme.  The ignorance in the rest of this ‘reason’ is too large to argue with, but I do have faith that some combination of Young and Capuano can give us some quality innings and keep the Mets in the game.  Losing Santana is rough, but given how many of his great games they let turn into losses last year, I’m confident with a little hitting the Mets can win more games that a lesser pitcher starts than they did last year with Santana on the mound.

 

I do have something good for Mets fans to look forward to. On Tuesday night (After the Knicks game) MSG will have a 4 part series on the ’86 Mets. Bar fights, sex, drugs, alcohol and more sex, drugs and alcohol- the good old days. Should be interesting. I guarantee it will be better than anything the Mets do on the field.

I’ll grant a pass on this statement since it was written before hand, but most accounts I’ve seen of the show have been pretty negative.  You can take your ‘guarantee’ and shove it, the Mets are going to be interesting this year.  Optimism is not a sin.

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I’d Buy This: R.A. Dickey Jersey

Dickey is awesome. He’s such a fun player to root for.   He’s a  smart guy, he truly cares and appreciates the game.  He’s finally finding success after a middling career.  So why aren’t the Mets promoting more gear with his name on it?  Even without the puns?  Sure, you can customize stuff online, but that’s not the same as being able to walk into the Mets shop and buy a variety of Dickey jerseys and gear.  The Mets also don’t get the same profits due to revenue sharing if it’s personalized and bought online compared to in their shops.  This niche does get filled, but it’s filled via third party retailers like the7line.com.
The same could be said for Pagan.  This team needs to get better at embracing fan favorites, even if they’re not the best players on the team or signed to long term contracts.  Joe Smith came up and had a good April and fans were excited.  I’m sure some would’ve bought a shirt. Pedro Feliciano was a reliever, but he was a very good one and he’d been here long enough that maybe some fans would’ve wanted to honor that.

Have some fun with it. Make a promotion out of it.  Declare it Dickey day.  It would be similar to the foam fingers the Mets made that said “Make Wright #1” as part of an All-Star campaign.  It’s quirky and a bit silly, but it’s also fun and harmless attention.  Give out halos, or free Angel Pagan t-shirts, and have an “Angels in the outfield” promotion.

Addendum:  Modells had a huge online sale a couple of weeks ago. (Mets Police, via Media Goon, notes a sale on jerseys today) So I purchased items you won’t find at Citi Field.  I got myself a Pagan jersey (The new cream alternate from last year), and a blue Dickey name and number shirt.  Also, an “I Like Ike” shirt, because..well you know.   In addition to this I bought two shirts for my wife.