Where Are The Mets Going?

It’s Memorial Day, a day many baseball fans traditionally use to take their first real assessment of the team.  Now suddenly standings start really meaning something, it’s considered okay to scoreboard watch, and most batting averages and rate statistics have at least a reasonable sample in which to infer some judgement on the player beyond a hot or cold start.  (Jose Reyes is batting .335, is the best shortstop in the game and is just plain exciting to watch. Please extend his contract.)

So where are these Mets going?  Right now it certainly doesn’t feel like they’re going very far.  They faced the Phillies and the lesser two of their aces and their rotation filler and outpitched all three of them but lost the series.  The fielding got sloppy in close games and the bullpen picked the worst possible time to struggle.  Still, can you proclaim anything as over in May?  The Phillies were 1-3 against the Mets, one game over .500 and 7 games back on Memorial Day in 2007.  Sure, the Phillies look better than the Mets right now, but you would’ve said the opposite in 2007.  

There is no doubt that the Mets need to play better to have any hope at some sort of reverse 2007 season.  The latest news on Ike Davis and David Wright doesn’t exactly have them returning immediately, but it won’t be too much longer either.  The news on Johan Santana remains good.   If the Mets can find ways to win games without them, and that would include hitting better with RISP and fielding the ball cleanly to not force pitchers to have to get 4 or 5 outs too many times, then they can crawl back to .500 and be poised to add two big bats to help them chase the Phillies.  They still have nine games against them and won’t face them again for over a month.  The Mets play eight of the next 14 games against the Pirates.  It is not unreasonable to expect the Mets to slaughter them, and be able to be above .500 after those 14 games.  Minimize the losing stretches of baseball and maximize the winning ones.  I think two weeks of this losing is enough, it’s time to start another strong run. 

This was a rough weekend for the Mets, but it’s one they can look at and realize that maybe if they field the ball cleanly they win two or three of those games.  No excuses; fix the problems or find players that will. 

One thing that’s starting to concern me is  Terry Collins’ bullpen usage.  (#1 thing fans nipick about a manager right?)  I really like the Mets bullpen, but i do not like their situational guys, and I wish Collins would stop going to them like they’re gold.  These pitchers are not Pedro Feliciano and I would leave Capuano or even Pelfrey in those games.  A lot hinges on Buccholz and Beato.  Both showed a lot of promise and if they can be relied on in those fringe innings between Isringhausen and K-Rod and the starting pitching then Mets will have a lot of chances to win baseball games.

Sandy Has It Under Control

This probably doesn’t bother anyone on the team, so it’s far from becoming a distraction, but the situation with his vesting option is starting to become too common a topic of conversation among fans, bloggers and media.  They brought him in to finish a game yesterday in an almost certain loss, which suggests that maybe they’re just not as worried about it as the rest of us are.

 

That’s the catch here; the Mets know a lot more about the situation than we do.  So why get bent out of shape about something that’s probably not a big deal?  The Mets know whether or not Francisco Rodriguez fits into their budget, or under what circumstances his option vesting for next year is not a problem.  Sandy Alderson knows whether or not they’re going to try to trade him before that, or extend him and have him void the option.   I’m not suggesting we have blind faith in Alderson; after all he’s just as fallible as the next guy.  However I think it’s silly to treat this situation like the Mets are purposely sticking their head in the sand regarding the 2012 payroll and how their closer fits into it.  At the end of the season, the Mets aren’t going to cry about what happens with Frankie, it’ll all be part of the bigger picture.

 

All in all, I’m just tired of half the Mets talk being about getting rid of our best players.  It was tedious at best during the offseason, but now that I’m actively enjoying these guys beating down the opponents, can we stop wishing them away?  I’d rather take a shot with Jose Reyes and whoever else makes the team better every year than close my eyes and hope I’ll be able to enjoy Mets baseball a couple of years down the road.  I’m actually enjoying the Mets this season, I’m enjoying watching Jose Reyes literally scare the Cubs defenders into making two errors on one play and running all the way around the baseball diamond.  I’m enjoying knowing that the game is over after eight innings when we have a lead.   Don’t take that away from me please.

Ceetar’s Mets Prop Bets: Make Your Picks

Here’s a list of some normal, and some abnormal, bets on the Mets this year.  Purely for fun, feel free to leave your picks in the comments. or suggest some other good over/unders.
Reyes
1. over/under .345 OBP (I suspect this may be over/under Met in 2012)
2. over/under 142 games played.
3. over/under 60 SB

Wright
4. over/under 30 HR
5. over/under 150 Ks

Bay
6. over/under 25 HR

Beltran
7. over/under 130 games played
8. over/under 25 HR
9. over/under 10 SB
10. Will Beltran or Chase Utley have more home runs this year?

K-Rod
11. over/under 55 games finished

Ike Davis
12. over/under .275 avg

13. over/under 23 HR

Jon Niese
14. over/under 200Ks

15. Who will start more games?
a. Johan Santana
b. Dillon Gee
c. Chris Young

16. Who has a better year, R.A. Dickey, or Cole Hamels?

17a. Will Emaus be the starting second baseman all year?
17b. If no, is his replacement
A. On the team
B. In the minors
C. on another team
D. Not currently playing baseball
E. Luis Castillo

You Can ALWAYS Put a Negative Spin on Mets News

Some sports writers and bloggers can’t help but recycle the same stories over and over again, merely inserting different information to reach the same conclusion.  A free agent someone deems worthy is passed over, therefore the Mets will not spend money.  Someone on the team tweaks a muscle, and the medical staff is inept.  The players have a bad game and suddenly they’re unfocused and uncaring.  So it should come as no surprise when someone out there twists the Jason Isringhausen signing to meet a common plot point: The Mets are desperate to cut payroll for 2012 and will do anything to get out of K-Rod’s contract.  It’s possible that by the time I publish this it’ll already have been written. It’ll probably be something like this:

“Yesterday the Mets signed former closer Jason Isringhausen.  Like most of Sandy Alderson’s moves this offseason, Isringhausen came cheap and no one else wanted him.  The Mets are hoping to catch a little lightening in a bottle with the former generation K pitcher.  With financial ruin looming, the Mets need to cut payroll for 2012 and Francisco Rodriguez’s 17.5 million dollar vesting option is looking expensive.  It’s in the Wilpon’s interests to find ways to keep K-Rod from closing 55 games in 2011, and the players association may have a problem if they were to just bench him, or share closer duties with the unproven Bobby Parnell.  With the Isringhausen signing, the Mets have another legitimate closer to try to take away some saves from Rodriguez.”

This is most certainly not how the Isringhausen signing went.  He had a relationship with J. P. Ricciardi from their Oakland days, and Isringhausen requested a try out to try and make the team.  He got a minor league deal with an invitation to major league camp, which is hardly a guarantee of anything more than a couple of innings of work at best.

K-Rod’s Option “Problem”

I know all these stories have been talked about and re-talked about since it’s the off-season and there is very little going on, but bare with me as I talk about this one some more.

People act like Francisco Rodriguez’s option year for 2012 vesting would be disastrous. He makes 11.5 million next year and that jumps to 17.5 million if he finishes 55 games, which he usually does. That’s a six million dollar raise, Although if it doesn’t vest they owe him 3.5 million to buy it out. It’s not really that bad. Omar knew that a lot of money was coming off in 2012, and the philosophy is that good teams have good closers. Since K-Rod is one of the best, and remains one of the best (i.e. finishing games, staying healthy, and the option vesting), the Mets would be best served to keep him. The raise is a lot, and I’m not sure how that went down in negotiations or why it need to be so much more than the base contract, but if the option vests it means he’s contributing to the success of this team.

The Mets problems in the past couple of years have not been spending too much money, but spending too much money on guys who have not contributed. The Mets have not been playing with a $140 million dollar payroll team the last couple of years. If the Mets have guys on the field, like Francisco Rodriguez, who are performing and contributing, then the amount of money they’re being paid becomes less important. Sure he’s making more money than he’s theoretically worth, but he is adding value. There is no guarentee that the players you sign to replace him with that 17.5 (really 14 because of the buyout) million dollars would win you more games. Especially as it’s a one year thing, and the Mets reportedly will have plenty of money to spend next year without that 14 million and an extra hole to fill. Do you want to take the gamble that the money saved by the option not vesting is will help create a more successful team in 2012? It’s certainly possible, but sometimes the saying “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” is apt.

Using games started and games finished as vesting options has always annoyed me. You’re not allowed to vest options based on statistical performance, and this seems to be skirting that line. Games on the active roster, or “games healthy” would make more sense. Both games started and games finished have the possibility of the team manipulating things so that options don’t vest. So do games appeared, as Alex Cora found out last year. Games finished is even more linked to performance, because a closer being bad at home actively alters the number of games he finishes.

There is no real need to speculate on ways to get around the option though. Francisco Rodriguez will either be healthy and successful and closing out a lot of games for a reasonably successful club, or the team will wallow in mediocrity and not get that many chances. The Mets offense seems poised to score a lot of runs though, so if the bullpen can hold leads, there may be less save situations. If Terry Collins chooses not to use Rodriguez in four run save situations or get him work for the sake of work, then that could keep the games finished number down. If the Mets are competing in August and September then not only will the Mets need and want him closing games, cost be damned, but the added attendance boost and revenue from being competitive will more than pay that raise for 2012. The thing the Mets can do to create the most money and financial flexibility is to win, not to look for ways around options or to avoid pricey contracts.

RyanHoward-Rod

I like my title, shame you won’t see that on the back pages of the Post.

K-Rod.

Pretty much the best closer in the game. At least arguably. Definitely the bets Free Agent relief pitcher on the market, and as much as I’m reluctant to always try to ‘buy’ the best team, this was the right move. I’m not nearly as excited about it as I was Santana, but I’m fully of the mind that if Wagner doesn’t get hurt, the Mets win the division, and probably the Phillies don’t win the Series.

Omar filled the biggest hole with the biggest plug. We still need a a bunch of relievers, but I don’t think they need to be big name guys. Pull in a bunch of guys from the minors, waivers, other teams, rule-5, wherever, and see who can thrive in this system with these coaches and players.

The last two starters should be the next priority. I wouldn’t be against Pedro/Ollie. Not both, but one of them. Perez is probably the better option, but his consistency is infuriating and overly taxing on the bullpen’s piece of mind. I don’t trust Niese to step in and be a reliable 5th starter. I think they should assume he’ll be the guy that’ll get called up when they need a 6th, or a fill in guy when someone needs to skip a start. I’m not overly concerned with who it is, but It’d be nice to have another big innings guys so the bullpens innings can be kept down.