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Ceetar’s Mets Prop Bets: Make Your Picks

Here’s a list of some normal, and some abnormal, bets on the Mets this year.  Purely for fun, feel free to leave your picks in the comments. or suggest some other good over/unders.
Reyes
1. over/under .345 OBP (I suspect this may be over/under Met in 2012)
2. over/under 142 games played.
3. over/under 60 SB

Wright
4. over/under 30 HR
5. over/under 150 Ks

Bay
6. over/under 25 HR

Beltran
7. over/under 130 games played
8. over/under 25 HR
9. over/under 10 SB
10. Will Beltran or Chase Utley have more home runs this year?

K-Rod
11. over/under 55 games finished

Ike Davis
12. over/under .275 avg

13. over/under 23 HR

Jon Niese
14. over/under 200Ks

15. Who will start more games?
a. Johan Santana
b. Dillon Gee
c. Chris Young

16. Who has a better year, R.A. Dickey, or Cole Hamels?

17a. Will Emaus be the starting second baseman all year?
17b. If no, is his replacement
A. On the team
B. In the minors
C. on another team
D. Not currently playing baseball
E. Luis Castillo

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Collins and Alderson Releasing Castillo (pics!)

This picture was taken around 10am on Friday morning.  Luis Castillo was still in a Mets uniform and on the practice fields.  I wonder what they were talking about..

 

Sandy Alderson and Terry Collins discussing something

 

 

Shortly after this Twitter was all abuzz about Luis Castillo being released.

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Debunking Pessimism

I stumbled across this extremely negative post on the Mets through some Google alerts.  At first I thought it would end up being a Philly blog, but nope. So here’s his five reasons why the Mets will suck post is way off the mark.
 

Spring training games began over the weekend, reminding us all how terrible the Mets will be this year.  Fittingly, Luis Castillo booted a ball at second base yesterday. Way to set the tone for the new season, Luis.

 

Here are my top 5 reasons why the Mets will be terrible this year.

Yes, I’m sure Castillo booting a ball in practice just doomed the Mets all season. Real players never actually make mistakes in Spring Training. Nevermind that Scott Hairston hit two home runs. This is just an excuse to pick on Castillo, who might not even make the team.

5- Ownership: Between borrowing $25 million from Major League Baseball, looking for minority ownership, and facing a multi-million dollar law suit, it will be a distraction all season. If the Wilpons sell the team, maybe it will make them less terrible, but still not good.

I can’t tell you that the Madoff stuff is a positive in any way, but it’s hardly going to be a distraction that causes the Mets to fail.  Wright’s not going to be worrying about the state of the lawsuit while he’s standing out at third base or at the plate.  They won’t even have to talk about it with the press, they’ve all said what they can say and their business is not finance, it’s baseball.  The state of the finances is not going to have much of an effect on the play on the field.  The only real thing it might do is prevent Alderson from adding pieces around the trade deadline, but so far there is no word that it will.  

4- Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez: It’s March 1, and for some reason they are still on the team. Perez got bombed in his first spring training game and Castillo is abysmal. Sadly he could actually win the starting second base position. It is unbelievable the Mets do not have anyone better than Castillo. Please cut your losses. I would rather have Ike Davis play first and second at the same time.

They’re on the team because they can’t lose the Mets games in March.  Whether or not they make the team will solely be based on merit, and it’s not looking good for either of them.  The players that help the Mets win will make the team, and therefore these two players will not be why they suck.  Reyes and Davis do have pretty good range, but I don’t think it’s enough to cover second base too. Plus, the rules don’t allow for only eight players in the lineup.  

3- Carlos Beltran playing right field: How long until he complains about it? I give it a month. Just imagine if he gets off to a bad start on offense. I know what the excuse will be.

#blamebeltran.  This pretty much debunks the whole post right here doesn’t it?  Never mind that he voluntarily moved there or that he’s not a complainer or an excuse maker.  A more valid question is how much regular rest is he going to need, and how well do those knees hold up?  Still, he’s been taking batting practice, and he should be ready to go as a hitter.  This should help prevent a slow start offensively at least.  Carlos Beltran continues to be underappreciated.

2- The NL East: The Phillies are probably the best team in baseball, which is not even fair, but the Braves and Marlins are better than last year too. The Mets are closer to the Nationals.

Just stating it doesn’t make it so. Probably? What if they’re not?  What if someone gets hurt? Their offense no longer looks formidable, Utley hasn’t even played yet and it’s looking more and more likely that Wilson Valdez may be starting for them, and they don’t even know what scrub or under-prepared prospect they’re going to throw out there in right field.  What if they don’t score runs when they pitch these great games, and what if age catches up with them?   The Marlins are not very good.  They’ve got some pitching, but it’s hardly amazing and they’re fielding a AAA offense outside of a couple of guys.  The Mets are capable of being in the thick of things just with their offense and with Pelfrey, Dickey and Niese doing what they did last year.

1- The Pitching Staff:  With Johan out until God knows when, Mike Pelfrey is the ace of the staff. Enough said. The Mets are depending on RA Dickey to repeat what he did last season, which is insane. I can’t even tell you who the 4th and 5th starters are: Chris Young?, Chris Capuano?, Dilon Gee? Oliver Perez??? Who the hell knows. As for the bullpen, talk about a disaster. Hopefully K-Rod won’t get arrested again or injure himself while beating up an old man. I honestly can’t even tell you who else is in the bullpen, so I have no further comments.

Enough said?  Sure, I could agree with that.  Mike Pelfrey was basically the best pitcher in baseball last April.  He had a horrible July, and it’s important that he minimizes that this year, but to dismiss him as crap is silly.  Why is it insane to expect Dickey to be as good as last year?  Did you really watch him all last year, and listen to him talk about pitching, and deduce that it was a fluke? It wasn’t.  He’s learned and adapted, and crafted his knuckleball to be a dangerous weapon.  It’s certainly possible he’s not as good, but the dropoff won’t be that extreme.  The ignorance in the rest of this ‘reason’ is too large to argue with, but I do have faith that some combination of Young and Capuano can give us some quality innings and keep the Mets in the game.  Losing Santana is rough, but given how many of his great games they let turn into losses last year, I’m confident with a little hitting the Mets can win more games that a lesser pitcher starts than they did last year with Santana on the mound.

 

I do have something good for Mets fans to look forward to. On Tuesday night (After the Knicks game) MSG will have a 4 part series on the ’86 Mets. Bar fights, sex, drugs, alcohol and more sex, drugs and alcohol- the good old days. Should be interesting. I guarantee it will be better than anything the Mets do on the field.

I’ll grant a pass on this statement since it was written before hand, but most accounts I’ve seen of the show have been pretty negative.  You can take your ‘guarantee’ and shove it, the Mets are going to be interesting this year.  Optimism is not a sin.

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Left Field Landing Observations

Edit, 3/12/11: The Mets have announced the last two sections of the Left Field Landing have been renamed Mr. Mets Landing, and discounted.  Many of the pictures here, and in the full album here, are from this section.

Edit, 4/1/11: And now it’s sponsored and called BJ’s Clubhouse.

Since Citi Field was mostly empty last night due to the team and the rain, I moved all over the Left Field Landing section where my seats were to get a feel for it.  I’ve never sat there before, and I was surprisingly impressed with the vantage point.  At least from the front six or so rows.  Further back and you lose too much of left field for my liking.  I ventured out to the farthest section, 339, and it was almost the same as watching it at home, from the center field camera.  Actually, I could’ve reached out and touched the camera.

Center Field Camera
Center Field Camera

There was this interesting thing out above the Apple, that seems to report wind speed and direction.

Checking wind speed at Citi Field
Checking wind speed at Citi Field

Continue reading “Left Field Landing Observations”

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Aggressive? Or Timid?

I’m not ready to jump off a ledge yet. Yes, we haven’t gotten many hits with runners in scoring position, but it is a small sample, and it is April. We’ve gotten a lot of guys on base.(Our on base percentage with runners on is a little better.) Sometimes we stage two out rallies where a guy or two gets a hit, and often guys like that get stranded. I’m not as worried about the number of guys left on, because you do get things like that when a team gets a lot of hits and never gives up even with two outs. Creating opportunities to score is the first part to having big games.
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Still, this team doesn’t feel right. Supposedly Manuel is preaching aggression, but I don’t see it. Other than trying to make Castillo swing at more pitches, I’d say this team is timid. Also, wasn’t the big plus with Dan Warthen and Oliver Perez is that he let Ollie be Ollie? Why is this not okay with Castillo? I worry that trying to make him into a hitter that he isn’t, could hurt. He’s been a successful player in his career, why mess with that? The Mets have way too little stolen base attempts for a team that is supposedly aggressive.

The Mets are on pace for 122 stolen base attempts, compared with 174 last year. Before that is was 246, 181, and 193 in 2005. This team is a team that’s always used it’s running game to it’s advantage. When was the last time you saw Reyes dancing off third trying to entice a balk? Putting the runners in motion, like yesterday with Omir Santos up, is not what I’d call aggression. It’s almost defeatist. Manuel seems to manage like he expects failure. He doesn’t think Santos, even though he’s two for three, or Reed as a pinch hitter are going to come through, so he tries to manufacture something. The same way he does when he goes matchup happy and starts pinch hitting for Church or Castro/Santos. Church has shown some ability to hit lefties, but if you keep taking him out against lefties, he’s going to have less practice at it, and you’ll start putting ideas in his head about failure. I brought up a similar thing about Feliciano. If you never let him pitch to righties, how is he supposed to figure out how to get them out? It’s not like he wasn’t a big pitcher for us in years past, so what happened? Actually, the data doesn’t look that horrible for Feliciano’s splits, and it also looks like that he pitches against as many righties and lefties. So if he’s really supposed to be a lefty specialist, he’s being used wrong.

Then again, the Mets won two of three. They dropped the ball on the third game, but you can’t actually win them all. (I’m assuming they can win 156 however) Beat the Cardinals, Beat the Nationals and maybe we can start putting this small sample size problems behind us.

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Good Bye and Good Riddence

The Mets game was a disaster, all across the board.  Managing, situational hitting, bullpen.. So while we still have a lead in the wild card and a more than adequate chance to make the division title ours, I’m going to talk about something else.

 

It’s hard to be a baseball fan without at least a little respect for Yankee Stadium (not necessarily the Yankees themselves).  The Stadium has been around for roughly 86 years, and housed some of the earlier stages of baseballs history.  If there is a baseball ‘god’, it’s Babe Ruth, who made the first marks at the Stadium.  So my gut reaction is that they shouldn’t be demolishing something full of so much baseball lore.

 

The Mets fan and Yankees hater side of me enjoys that they’re knocking down something so historic.  You could argue that the Curse of the Bambino that supposedly stopped the Red Sox from winning was actually reversed when the Yankees went through the process of starting to dismantle the Bambino’s house.  The Red Sox won twice, and the Yankees have gradually gotten worse and worse, until this season when they will miss the playoffs entirely.  Going into the final game ever at Yankee Stadium, the Yankees number for elimination is 1.  This means that if they lose, not only will it be the final regular season game in the building, but also clinches that it will be the last game, period.  They’re currently up 5-3 in the 5th, but we’ll see how it turns out. 

 

Physically, Yankee stadium isn’t very nice.  The concourses, specifically on the ground floor, are tight and feel cave like.  The seats aren’t great, and the upper deck is tall and steep.  The entire place feels old, because it _is_ old.  Besides the ‘magic’ behind the historical place, I’m glad they’re knocking it down.  As a baseball fan in New York, I do occasionally find myself at the place, whether randomly or for a Subway Series game, and my priorities when visiting are my own comfort and enjoyment.  I already have to deal with Yankee fans when I’m there, so why add in small concourses, ancient bathrooms, long lines, broken seats and all the other things wrong with the place? 

 

Babe Ruth may miss the place, but I won’t.  May the Yankees live to regret this decision and be doomed to decades of failure.

 

Back to the Mets, I’m sick and tired of Mets fans acting like Luis Castillo is beating up babies and stabbing nuns in the clubhouse.  To me it seems like he plays at least as hard as anyone, and he certainly gets on base more than Argenis Reyes, and more than Easley.  I don’t think the 7th spot in the lineup is the best location for him, but that’s Manuel’s lineup, not Castillo’s.  The guy might not have the range he used to, but he’s certainly not stationary.  If the Mets were pounding in runs, specifically in clutch spots, then maybe you live with a defensive Argenis a little more often.  Right now though, they need both Castillo’s OBP, and his average with runners in scoring position.  

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Much Needed Activation Impending

Argenis Reyes is hitting .232. He’s had some moments, and may turn out to be pretty good, but it’s not looking like it will be this year.

Damion Easley is batting .200 over the last 30 days and 21 games. Easley has never showed he’s the right guy for an everyday spot on the Mets, he’s best as a big pinch hitter off the bench.

Reports indicate Luis Castillo will be back tomorrow, and it’s not a moment too soon. I hope his DL stint has allowed his knees to heal some, so that he can get back to playing an excellent second base as well as reaching base at a much higher pace than either Reyes or Easley. Castillo also has one of the highest averages with runners in scoring position on the team this year, something the Mets often have trouble with. You could hit him 8th if need be, but I think second works for him too. Delgado’s increased power, and higher position in the order, since Castillo went on the DL will lead to a lot more runs where previously Castillo was drawing walks and being stranded.

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Too Early To Worry or Overreact

Three Game Losing Streak

Doesn’t look good does it? The Sunday night game against the Phillies was probably just a result of Pelfrey not going to be excellent every single time out there, and Feliciano’s occasional streakiness. Yesterday was probably a result of using the B lineup, coupled with the remaining A guys slumping.

There are some concerns, but it’s still a little early to be panicking over them. Delgado has been declining, and it looked rather bad last year. The thing is, he had good stretches where he looked fine. So the ability is still there, and I suspect what he needs is some consistency, some warmer weather, and just some swings. For everyone screaming about Church batting 6th, you have to think that him hitting well in the 6th hole helps Delgado. As little as lineups matter when everyone’s not hitting, there are pluses and minuses to each of them.

Luis Castillo has been bad early, but he’s also still hurt. Maybe he’ll be hurt for the rest of his life and he sucks, or maybe, like Delgado, time will help. I don’t want to hear about the contract anymore. Stop thinking about 2011. If this was a one year deal, you wouldn’t be complaining about it, and since this is the very first year you can’t have a problem that he’s on the team in 2011. I liked Gotay too, but he wasn’t the greatest defensive player, and he only had a small small sample of hitting successfully. It’s smaller than the sample size people are using to bash Castillo and Delgado even.

So give it time. Some of these things may turn into big problems, and then it becomes Willie and Minaya’s problems to address, but for now they’re merely points of interest. You can’t fire the manager, bench your star first baseman, or promote question marks from Binghamton on April 22nd.

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Angel in the Outfield

Everyone else is doing it, so why not me?

I’m actually surprised that Angel Pagan, Joe Smith, and Mike Pelfrey made the team over the veterans that have a combined age approaching infinity. I hope it they made it for themselves, and not because of injuries or failures on the part of the older options. At least now we have an Angel in the outfield as well as a Church. (And as I’ve mentioned earlier, how many variations of those headlines do you think the papers are going to use?)

I liked Gotay, but truthfully he didn’t have a lot of places to play on this team. You can argue about sign Castillo, but they did so Gotay really was only going to be a pinch hitter and he didn’t do amazingly in that role last year. However I wish they could’ve traded him for something rather than gifting him to the Braves. I wonder what it says about the Braves confidence in their guys that they felt the need to pick up Gotay though?

I think Pelfrey will turn it around, maybe Perez can give him some head-case advice.

Only about 24 hours until this is all secondary stuff to the actual baseball anyway, and I can’t wait. I’m planning to attend the Metsblog.com happy hour in the city to watch the game, even though I expect it to be a zoo. If you come, look for me. I’ll be the one in the Santana shirt. Can’t miss me.

Look for my 5th “Letters to the NL East” letter late tonight or early tomorrow, which will basically be a rallying cry for the Mets.

Oh, and if you know anyone that is looking for a single ticket to all 13 home Saturday games..send them my way, I probably don’t need to spend $300 to have a seat to put my bag on.

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Today’s resignings

I have no problem with resigning Alou. In fact I wanted someone like him for next year. I want Alou, Beltran, and Milledge opening day. I wonder if this move was made with the thought of trading Gomez, but if not, Gomez(and Endy) can get a fair amount of left field time in when Alou is out.

I’ve never been a big fan of Easley, and while he had some moments last year, i’m not sure where he fits with this team. Unless they’re thinking of trading Gotay, this puts us in exactly the situation as last year with an overload at second base. Unless they’re thinking Easley off the bench, a job that he’ll hopefully play second-fiddle to Marlon Anderson. Does this effect the possibility of resigning Castillo? I hope not. (or the possibility of the A-Rod, Wright to second stuff?)

Good to see the Mets start making some news. The 2007 is officially over, and it’s time to forget that, and focus on the future and stop letting the Yankees take all of the attention.