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I Predict an Oliver Perez Sighting Tonight

I know no one wants to hear it, but I’m suspecting we may see Oliver Perez tonight, and definitely before the end of the road trip. Here’s a couple of reasons why:

1. He hasn’t pitched in ages.

2. reports that he’s “looking better” (I don’t know how this can be when he hasn’t actually faced batters)

3. The Mets have already not lost this series, and 2 road wins a trip is normal. Could be thinking it’s house money at this point?

4. Bullpen tired from yesterday.

5. B.S. about missing-Frankie need to get more value from everyone else.

At this point, with the Mets virtually eliminating and sending subtle signs that they’re very aware of this, it might be time to try to get Perez into a state where you might be able to raise his value such that an opposing GM may consider trading for him if they’ve had a couple of beers. It’s in the Mets best interest to play him since his value cannot go down, but if they could tease some modicum of success out of him down the stretch, or in Spring Training next year, they might be able to trade him for a long-shot AAA player or a down on his luck reliever.

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Depressingly Early Football Season and Long Term Mets Plans

My posts have been lacking lately. Part of that is certainly that the Mets don’t produce much to be optimistic about right now, but I am also having a lot of computer issues involving memory and hard drives and multiple reformats of my laptop. I spend most of my time at the computer cursing at it and telling it get going; which is much like how I feel watching the Mets. I was holding out hope as things spiraled out of control with the Mets as is befitting the title of this blog, but my hope is dwindling as the math suggesting the Mets will make the playoffs, even if they were to morph into a powerhouse overnight, grows bleeker and bleeker.

They can still make the playoffs. They won’t, but the possibility does still exist. A strange confluence of events including David Wright not having another slump, Jason Bay coming back and accumulating all the stats that he would need to reach his career averages for the year in the final month, Carlos Beltran shaking off the rust/age/injury and playing well, Castillo putting up career norms for OBP and getting driven in regularly, would have to happen first. Some of these will happen, but it does not seem like it will be enough to matter.

My personal opinion is that the Mets have subtly given up on the season, but they do have a long term plan in place. Promoting the unready Tejada and the possibly unready Fernando Martinez suggests as much. I think the Mets should probably take the next step and start interviewing managers, if not GMs. Take the two weeks to figure out who should manage this team next year, and give them a month to get acclimated with Wright, Reyes, and the rest of the 2011 incumbants so they don’t have to do so in Spring Training. I think it would help the long term goals. One reason not to do this immediately is if the Mets plan on dumping Omar Minaya, in which case you’d want to take care of that before the manager situation, and you may just run out of time to do this all sequentially. Tonight is the night the draft picks have to sign by, so it’d be a perfectly opportunity to make a move forward after that. Give a new GM time to analayze the team and it’s holes and create a offseason strategy. Start the ball rolling, hint at the long term plan, and bring some more of the kids of up in September and I bet Citi Field won’t be quite as empty as some are predicting.

It’s sad that I’m aware that the Giants are playing a preseason game tonight. (Against the Jets too) I prefer years where I don’t even know the Giants record until late October. Or at least late September. I prefer football games as an appetizer to a big Sunday Night Baseball game featuring the Mets and a pressure filled push towards a playoff berth. (results aside)

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You Will Go To Citi Field on Sunday

hof_hat_300x250The Mets Hall of Fame game is Sunday.  Before the game they’re having a ceremony and inducting Frank Cashen, Dwight  Gooden, Davey Johnson, and Darryl Strawberry into the Mets Hall of Fame. There are still tickets available.  There are still TOO MANY tickets available.  Shannon over at Mets Police has been all over this, and rightfully so.  It’s one thing if the mid-level seats that are priced above what’s affordable for many people don’t sell out.  It’s quite another if the Promenade section doesn’t.

The lack of Mets history in Citi Field was one of the biggest complaints about the place last year.  More so than even Pelfrey letting Jody Gerut hit the first home run in the place.  Even if you only go to a few games this year, this should be near the top of the list of options.  It’s honoring one of our greatest teams.  Great players who we enjoyed rooting for for many years and the leaders who helped get them there.   True Mets.   It doesn’t matter what they did off the field or later in their careers in lesser leagues.  They did something for Mets fans that can never be erased, and to miss out on that for petty reasons like inflation, personal feelings about current players or administrators, or the organization or park not being precisely how you like it is just sad.  It’s one thing if it doesn’t fit into your schedule, your personal finances, or you’re flat out busy that day, but it’s quite another to make a specific effort NOT to go.    If you’re going to stop celebrating the best parts of the Mets history, what are you going to celebrate?

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Wainwright the Best Opponent for the Mets Tonight?

Maybe Adam Wainwright is the perfect pitcher for the Mets to face tonight.  It’s the perfect matchup of “Something’s got to give”.  The Mets haven’t scored in ages, and Wainwright hasn’t given up any runs in ages.  It’s mathematically improbable for both of these to continue for another nine innings, and that should bode well for the Mets.   Maybe they rise to occasion of fighting a top pitcher, start scoring some runs, and give Johan Santana some help in the July Pitcher of the Month competition.

If we’re getting poetic about it, I’m going to predict that the deciding runs of this game are scored via a grand slam home run by Carlos Beltran off of an Adam Wainwright curveball.

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Could This Be The Mets Final Test?

Could this be the final test for the Mets?

I hope it’s not, but if they fail it may mean the figurative end to their season.  The next two weeks are very critical, and the first order of business is just flat out winning games.  The Mets have played very well at home this year, and they’ve got three games against the tough Cardinals, and then three against the not so tough Diamondbacks.  There can be no excuses: They have to win games.  Omar’s job, provided he still has one, is to bring in reinforcements after that.  The trading deadline is next weekend, and the Mets are in need of some help.  No longer can they play waiting games or decide they don’t like the price.  When you drop as many games in the standings as the Mets did, you no longer have the luxury of pretending you’re not desperate for help.

After the Diamondbacks the Mets again head on the road.  It’s this road trip that could prove to be critical, as they face the Braves and the Phillies.  The Braves have been amazing lately, and the Mets have been making just about every other ballpark look to them like Turner Field did around the turn of the century.  By falling so far back, it’s become imperative that they make up ground by beating the competition in front of them.  Losing and falling further behind could very well be a death blow.

The Mets have been extremely streaky this year and they really are much better than they’ve shown lately.  If they take that streak and turn it into a hot stretch where they’re again a team that’s tough to beat, they could climb right back into this race.  There is still a lot of baseball to be played and August could be a good month for them.  After they play the division rivals on the road, they come home for the Rockies and the Phillies before going on a road trip that one would describe similarly to the Cleveland-Baltimore trip they took that they were successful on: they play the Astros and the Pirates.  Another home stretch with the Marlins and the Astros provides plenty of time to fight their way back into this race before facing the Braves again at the end of the month.

Can the Mets ace this next test and fight their way back into relevancy again?  I don’t know.  Neither answer would surprise me, but I’m certain they’re capable of it.  They often say you need to get hot at the right time and if the Mets can capitalize on that by beating up on the division rivals, as the Phillies did in 2007, they can certainly win this division.

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Oliver Perez’s “Changeup”

Isn’t this changeup, by definition, not a changeup?

This changeup defies its definition
This changeup defies its definition

And that seems to be the crux of the problem with Oliver Perez.  How is gameday classifying that pitch as a changeup?  I understand Oliver Perez mostly sucks this year.  It seems like pitch selections like this is the main reason, and I don’t see how they didn’t have him working on this while he was in rehab, or how they promoted him again without fixing it.

I’m no Pitch F/X expert, but I know that Perez should be throwing this pitch slower.  He throws his fastball around 88-89, which you hope would build up over time, but regardless, you have to throw the changeup no higher than 80mph if this is the case.  He does have a slider that’s in the 70s for the offspeed part of his game, but he’s stopped throwing the curve entirely this year.

Oliver’s biggest problem does not seem to be his velocity, although you would like that to be higher.  His mechanics have never been good, which accounts for a lot of fluctuation at times in his pitches and may be the cause of that missing 2mph on his fastball.  Still, the biggest issue here seems to be pitch selection and game plan.  We know he’s billed as a head case, but I’m sure those accounts are exaggerated.  What he should’ve been working on is selecting his pitches better and setting up hitters.  If he’s capable of throwing so many pitches, slider, curveball, fastball, 4-seam fastball, changeup, and cutter, he’s capable of setting up hitters to look foolish.  He’s got enough command of those pitches that he can keep batters from sitting on the 88mph fastball.

It’s not enough to just say he’s a lost cause and dismiss him.  You can’t excuse Dan Warthen or Rod Barajas because Ollie’s a head case.  He’s had success before, and coaching/selection is their job.  How is Oliver Perez still doing things like throwing a fastball and changeup at the same speed to the same batter?  Am I missing something?  If you’ve got some advanced knowledge of pitching/pitches that you can share, please pass it along.  I find it hard to believe that gameday/fangraphs is just guessing at what pitches he’s throwing or that he’s throwing them by accident.

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What Joe Benigno Will Talk About Today

Today will be non-stop “The Mets have no grit” type discussions.  The people that don’t pay attention and think Beltran is soft will come out of the woodwork.  The clubhouse divide comments will come back.  (Michael Kay actually took care of that already today, thanks..) Overly dramatic, pessimistic Mets fans will be all over these things.  There is usually Yankees praise involved.  I can pretty much predict Joe Benigno’s show from 2-6:30 on WFAN tomorrow.

“Write it down, the Yankees are going to go out and get Roy Oswalt.  After seeing Hughes take a step back last night, and Pettitte on the DL, there is no way, NO WAY bro, that the Yankees don’t get this guy.  And what will the Mets do? Nothing.  What a pathetic game last night.  I don’t care what the numbers say, Beltran needs to sit down until he’s up to speed.  They made a mistake bringing this guy back so fast.  I know Francoeur isn’t hitting but he’s too valuable as a leader to mess with the chemistry.  And no one else is hitting anyway!  At least Francoeur you know you’re getting good defense out there.  I really think the Mets made a mistake bringing Castillo and Oliver Perez, and don’t get me started on this bum who should be pitching for Japan right now or something.  All we heard about was how good the chemistry was on this team and then you throw these malcontents back into the mix and look what happens!   And what is Omar doing?  Will you make a trade Omar? What are you waiting for?!”

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Is The Mets Road Trip Salvagable?

The Mets have not been playing good baseball lately.  This poor play brings up debate and questions about what exactly the problems are.  Is it an easy fix? Something that takes time, money, or trade? 
Could it be the managing?
Maybe.  Jerry Manuel is not a good manager.  He’s operating as a lame-duck manager and as Steve Popper remarked today, A manager that everyone in the clubhouse suspects is not here for the long haul may lose a little authority in the dealing with long term situations such as standing up to Jose Reyes and being the final authority on if he is in the lineup.  The flip side of this is the question of whether Manuel’s lack of authority in such situations is what led to his job security being as tenous as it is in the first place.
Manuel seems inept at managing road games or close games, often burning outs with useless bunts, refusing to use his best pitchers on the road or burning through the bullpen at record pace.  Still, the Mets have the talent and ability to win games, and if enough games are going to come down to the point where they are won or lost on a misguided bunt call in the third inning, the Mets probably won’t win enough games for it to matter.
Is it the offense?
Some fans are thinking so.  Some seem to have given up on Beltran and Bay, and point out that the pitching has rarely kept the Mets out of games.  Surely if players like Bay continue to underperform, the Mets will not win.  However it’s probably safer to say Jason Bay will hit more like the 1000 games before he became a Met, than the 90 or so this year.  Beltran has returned, one of the most talented players in the game, and while we’re still not sure what effect the brace and lingering bone bruises are going to have on his overall play it’s safe to say he’s a solid upgrade over Jeff Francoeur.  Castillo will return soon and put up a respectable OBP that provides more run scoring opportunities.  Reyes will be back in the lineup and allow us to send Tejada back to Buffalo for more seasoning.   It’s easy to get worked up over slumps and scoring droughts, but the Mets offense overall is pretty good. 
How about the pitching?
Behind Johan, one of the best second half pitchers ever, the Mets currently have Pelfrey, Niese, Dickey and Takahashi.  Dickey has been wonderful, and Niese is contributing as well.  Mike Pelfrey’s struggling with a little bit of a slump, but he’ll fight out of it and win games for the Mets in the second half.  Takahashi has struggled, looking more suited for a long relief type role out of the bullpen.  This would be the obvious place to upgrade on the team, and rumors are that Omar is indeed looking for something that won’t cost the farm, but I’m not convinced the pitching is keeping the Mets out of games.  In fact they’ve been in most games, rarely getting blown out or finding themselves down six runs in the seventh inning.  Takahashi has had some bad starts, but he’s also had some good ones.  Johan even had a couple of bad starts in the first half. 
Injuries.
The Mets injuries, coupled with some slumps, are what’s causing the recent struggles.  Some of the other categories may be making it worse such as Jason Bay slumping or Takahashi having a poor outing, but overall it’s the injury to Luis Castillo forcing us to play lesser or unready players in Cora and Tejada.  It’s Reyes slow recovery from the strained oblique.  It’s Beltrans bone bruises keeping him out the entire first half.  Ike Davis went through a typical rookie slump, but after two home runs last night may be coming out of it.  You can’t get much worse than Rod Barajas lately, and he may be forcing Jerry’s hand in using Thole more, who has done nothing but hit while he’s been on the Mets.

 

It’s easy to overreact to slumps and scoring droughts, but the Mets have the talent to make the playoffs this year.   There is a lot of time left, including plenty of games left against the division leading Braves.  Destiny is in their own hands.  Beltran is getting up to speed, Jose Reyes is supposedly just about recovered, and Luis Castillo is set to return by next weekend.  Johan’s a second half pitcher, more help may be on the way, and Ike Davis may rebound from his first major slump a better player.  The second half of the season is going to be very exciting, and I can’t wait.

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Enjoying the All-Star Game

How about THIS for a bullpen? *drools*
How about THIS for a bullpen? *drools*

I went to the All-Star Game, on a whim, in 2006.  It really changed how I felt about the game in general.  I had a blast, and I can’t wait to get back to another one, or for it to hopefully be at Citi Field in 2013.   It was like being at a party devoted to baseball.

Here’s the article I wrote about it, in 2007.  Mid-Summer Excitement