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Omar’s Advanced Statistical Analysis

“Mets GM Omar Minaya poses ideas to him, often via email, and Baumer will run the numbers to see if they’re true. He said he’s one of 8 or 10 people who can offer their two cents when a decision is being made, such as a trade or in free agency.”

 Jenny Vrentas/The Star-Ledger is referring to Ben Baumer, the Mets statistical analyst.  We’ve known the Mets use, as do most teams, advanced statistics in evaluations of players for trades and signings and even drafting.   They hinted at it being one of the reasons they chose Jason Bay.  It provided evidence that the free agent pitchers on the market this offseason were not worth it. 

It’s worth noting that despite some criticism, the Mets do in fact use a variety of tools to evaluate players.   I have plenty of issues with some of the popular advanced stats out there, from UZR to WAR to FIP.  I’m working on a post that specifically outlines my concerns, but there is still value to looking at these numbers, especially to reinforce an opinion you might have on a player you haven’t seen that much of. Especially for a general manager of a baseball team.

For all the criticisms of Omar, and those fans that feel he just has to go before this team can win, this article suggests he might not be as clueless as you think.

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Ike Davis’ First AB Probabilities

Some odds on what will happen in Ike Davis’ first major league AB.

ike
4-1 bloop single.
3-1 groundout.
3-1 flyout.
10-1 reach on error.
30-1 hit by pitch.
60-1 home run.
40-1 double.
75-1 triple.
5-1 hard single.
15-1 strikeout looking.
7-2 strikeout swinging.
85-1 grand slam.
15-1 walk.
25-2 Grounds into double play.
150-1 Lines into triple play.
100-1 Ground rule double.
400-1 Homers into the Apple canister.
70-1 Homers off/into the Pepsi Porch.

 

 

What do you think?

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Pitching Wins

Pitching wins.  That’s the common refrain around baseball, and there is a lot of truth to it.  So while many Mets fans may have been upset that the Mets offense is struggling, even against position players in a 20 inning game, I’m ecstatic that the pitching has been so good.  It’s too early to tell for sure on the starters.  Some velocity numbers seem suspect, but static numbers do not tell you everything.  Pitch counts, and pitch speeds, are something that many managers and baseball experts are still working on.  20 years ago these things were barely more important than who won the airplane race.  (On a side note, I kinda miss the airplane race.  It was so perfect for the Mets, since Jets from LaGuardia fly over constantly.) Let’s give some guys a couple of starts to build up arm strength and get the early season jitters out of the way before we judge what they’re capable of for the season.

If the pitching is going to be this good, the Mets are going to rise to great heights.  Santana is going to win games; I really don’t think there is anything to worry about with him.  He’s had a little less velocity than we would like so far, but he’s also fresh back from surgery, and a slow starter.  He did get up to 92 by the end of his appearance Saturday, and I hope it’s just a matter of getting his arm strength up to mid-season form.  You could probably say the same thing about Oliver Perez, who looked masterful the night before.  Perez mixed and matched pitches and location and speeds like a pro.  Like Santana.  He was _nothing_ like the Ollie we know.  He wasn’t good Ollie, or bad Ollie.  He was just a pitcher doing his thing.  There wasn’t wildness, or getting unfocused.  He was pitching, not throwing, as the adage goes.

There’s not enough to say about Pelfrey.  He’s amazing.  He leads the team in ERA, in wins, even in saves!  He threw a masterful game in the low-oxygen Colorado game, threw a bullpen early Saturday and then still demanded the ball from Manuel in the 20th inning for the save on Satuday.  If there’s anybody on the team you’re ready to say “Throw out 2009, it’s 2010 now and that’s what counts” with, it’s Pelfrey.

Now, the offense hasn’t been great.  However, the offense is also underperforming.  Bay, Pagan, Castillo, Reyes are all better players than they’ve played so far, and there is little reason to think they won’t get better.  That will win games. They’re 4-7 right now and once the offense clicks they could easily rattle off a winning streak.  Once we get Murphy back, or Murphy comes back and doesn’t improve and Ike shows up, the offense will get a boost as well.  Like Murphy or not, he’s not the automatic strikeout that Jacobs is.

A lot hinges on tonight.  Every other pitcher has shown that they’re going to put up some good games this year.  Even Niese’s quality start is perfectly acceptable out of the 5th guy.  Maine is the only holdout, and after scrapping the changes that didn’t work this spring, he’ll revert to what’s given him success in the past.  It might be too soon to expect him to have that nailed down and for him to pitch a gem, but a competitive game over six innings or so that gives the Mets ample opportunity to win the game would be a great start.

The offense will work itself out, but if the pitching can do what it’s started to show it can do, this 4-7 record will be a mere slow start in a great season.

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Upcoming Expections For The Mets

I understand the season has been hurtful so far.  I also understand that even the worst teams in baseball don’t play this badly, and that they will win more games.  So how do we shake this feeling of doom?

YaGottaBelieveSign

I’m pretty confident in Pelfrey throwing a good game tonight.  I think what he worked on this Spring is going to help a lot, he’s getting less distracted on the mound, and has that cocky confidence that this team needs. 

You never know with Perez, and I worry that the stupid tinkering that Warthen did with Maine was also a failure for Perez, but I think the Mets will have a chance to win the game tomorrow when he pitches. 

Santana is due to bounce back and win one on Saturday.  He’s Johan Santana after all.

Then Maine, who I think gets a huge boost being out from under Warthen’s shackles.  Doesn’t mean he’ll be successful though, especially the first time going back to what’s worked for him, but the numbers are there if you choose to believe. (those numbers being a 4-1 2.75 ERA May last year before surgery in June.  Those numbers being that he was hitting 93 last year, and was 91-92 in the return from surgery in September)  I’m hoping being able to be comfortable will be like a weight off his shoulder and he’ll do just fine.  I’m certainly not ready to believe Maine’s career is over.

Maybe they drop one of those, which would put them at 5-7.  Then they go home for a 10 game home stand where if they go 6-4 they’re back at .500 and go to Philadelphia, a park the Mets love to hit in with hopefully the offense finally clicking, and knock the ball, and 2009, out of the park.

That’s the formula to shake these bad feelings away.  If the Mets can get to Philadelphia near .500 and play well there against an injured Phillies team and assert, even if it’s just for one series, that they’re the better team it will go a long way to returning the confidence to this team, and to it’s fans.

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Optimism After Six Games

The Mets have played six games against the bottom of the division and lost the four games I didn’t attend.

There are still some good things to take from the season so far though, and you can read about them in detail in my post for The Real Dirty Mets Blog.

The fans at the park so far have been pretty pathetic, in terms of their booing Santana and failure to really get into any of the games and actually cheer like Mets fans used to.  Greg over at Faith and Fear in Flushing recaps this issue rather nicely.

Patrick Flood wrote a nice piece that really drives home how much we’ve missed Reyes.   This piece represents another reason why I think it was despicable of Jerry Manuel to bunt Reyes over on Saturday.

It seems even the beat writers are stirring about it being time to fire Jerry Manuel, something I’ve long felt was necessary.  For better or worse I don’t believe the Mets will do anything before May 3rd after the first series agains the Phillies.

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Opening Day 2010

Today was Opening Day at Citi Field.  A day filled with optimism. (Unless you’re one of the fans booing Oliver Perez, the Mets trainers, Luis Castillo or Jerry Manuel)  The day lived up to the hype and the Mets won as they usually do on Opening Day.  I met with a surprising amount of other bloggers and the Blue Cap Army to tour the Mets Hall of Fame and Museum which was a lot of fun.  Hopefully I’ll see a bunch more of them this season.  (My next game is Friday.)

The important stuff:

Johan pitched great.  He wasn’t exactly lights out, but he was excellent and held the Marlins to 1 run in 6 innings.  The bullpen pitched excellently.  It was just Nieve and K-Rod this time, but still good way to start.  David Wright got his first home run in his first at-bat, and it was just amazing.  Wright’s poised to have an amazing MVP caliber player, and getting that first home run out of the way so that no one can start doubting him was a great jolt to the Mets fans.  It said, “This season is going to be good.  We’re not going to fall on old clichés and you’re not going to be able to use the phrase ‘here we go again.’” Bay and Barajas both had big hits, to help break the ice so to speak.  More importantly, the Mets were aggressive.  They played an aggressive game, made the Marlins have to make plays (they didn’t), and played hard.  There was even a suicide squeeze attempt which was great to see.  So even though I think he’s still the worst manager the Mets have ever had, I do offer kudos to Jerry Manuel for calling that play.  Suicide squeezes and terror on the basepaths is a much better way to try to steal runs than sacrifice bunting.

Now some pictures of things I noticed at Citi Field today.  There are a lot of changes, and plenty of them are fairly mundane, but still changes.   I took 400 pictures and a couple of videos, and there was so much good stuff that I’ll never be able to get to it all.  The full gallery is here.  More pictures at The Real Dirty Mets Blog.

The moved Home Run Apple. Great change. Great location. Looks amazing there. Could become a meeting point, although it’s just a wee bit crowded there.

more below to save on page load times.

Continue reading “Opening Day 2010”

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Letters to the NL East, Part 5/5

(To read past year’s letters, click here)

Letters to the NL East, Part 0 of 5. (part 0, part 1, part 2, part 3, part 4)

AngryMrMet

Dear New York Mets,

Welcome to the what I like to joke is the second half of the ’09-’10 season.   But it’s time to put the past behind us and move on.  Nothing that happened before today counts for anything, and it’s time to step it up and start taking control of your own destiny.

Last season was a disaster; Let’s not talk about it anymore.  It’s now 2010 and even though we’ve got a couple of nagging injuries, there is hope.  Reyes will be back shortly, Murphy by the end of the month, and hopefully Beltran not too much after that.  The pitchers are healthy and while we’re missing Beltran for too much time, the rest of the offense is actually really capable.  There’s a lot of pressure on the pitching staff right now, but from all accounts you’ve got a chip on your shoulder and are working hard to succeed.  Relish the underdog role and punish the opponent.

Citi Field is amazing and all the changes look great.  Now make the experience inside a memorable one and make me forget that there is a Big Apple Brews or Shake Shack anywhere.  I’ll be there today early enough to get all that stuff out of the way before settling in to watch Santana pitch.  It’s time to get some confidence and win some games. It’s time to talk about things like wins and losses, actual performance, and stat lines, without trying to predict and project what you guys are going to do.  The division is ripe for the picking, and it’s time you stopped disappointing us and rise up and take it.   Let’s rock Citi Field like it’s never rocked before.

The predictions for your team are meek, but don’t let that bother you.  It’s time to surprise some people.  By June I expect to hear a collective, begrudging “I think this division is the Mets after all” to be uttered by the supposed baseball experts.  I expect you to make it so that most Philadelphia blogs will be talking about the Eagles by August.  The Mets have never closed two consecutive decades without a World Series title, and I see no reason to start the trend now.  In fact, they’ve never had a decade where they did not even go to the World Series, so let’s make that the starting point.

Your lifelong fan,

Optimistic Mets Fan

(I’ll be at the game today, but some that aren’t will be gathering in the Real Dirty Dugout irc chatroom of which you can find a link over on the right)

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Letters to the NL East, Part 0/5

(To read past year’s letters, click here)

Letters to the NL East, Part 0 of 5. (part 1, part 2, part 3, part 4)

yankeeslogo

Dear New York Yankees, (Because while they are not part of the division, are still are rivals in a way)

Ugh.  You purchased your 27th World Series last year.  You made the team better by acquiring Javier Vasquez from the Braves, even if he’s struggled as a Yankee before.  But this doesn’t exactly guarantee the same success in 2010.

Your team looked old and over the hill last April but was able to bounce back.  Eventually the age on the team won’t be able to do that, although Jeter and Rivera will certainly be trying so they can get that extra bit out of you in contract negotiations.

However, just about everything went right for you last season, and it’s not likely to go that way again.  Will guys like Nick Johnson and AJ Burnett stay healthy?  Will Granderson hit lefties?  How many games can Posada play behind the plate?   As I write this, Nick Johnson and Posada have both already been scratched from spring games this week.

It’s fair to say that the Yankees don’t have a ton of holes, but you do have two talented teams in your division that can exploit even the smallest problem in your game.  The success of last year does mask a lot of possible problems that could open up and devour the team though.  The handling of the bullpen, Joba and Hughes.  The range and age of your shortstop.  A-Rod’s hip, which was supposedly going to need more surgery but somehow didn’t.  Are the Feds coming for A-Rod and why is he dodging them?  Will Yankee Stadium in 2010 become the setting of some sort of Bourne film with A-Rod dashing through the stands with Matt Damon chasing him?  It’s probably a safe bet that they all the holes won’t all open at once, and that the Yankees could overcome some of them, but that’s why we play the games. When the dust clears you may find yourselves in third place and playing golf in October.

Your cross-town rival,

Optimistic Mets Fan

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Letters to the NL East, Part 4/5

(To read past year’s letters, click here)

Letters to the NL East, Part 4 of 5. (part 1, part 2, part 3)

phil_phylis

Dear Philadelphia Phillies,

You suck.  That’s right, you heard me.  You’re the “popular” pick to win the division, much like the Mets were predicted to win the World Series last year.  You know what?  It doesn’t matter.  You get credit in analysts’ eyes for being there in the past, but that doesn’t actually get you any wins in 2010.

You already get one big black mark for letting Cliff Lee leave when you acquired Halladay.  Now suddenly your rotational is only marginally better, at best.  And you have at least as many question marks at the Mets.  Sure, those questions have turned out to be exclamation points in the past, but this is a different year.  Maybe Hamels was a one-hit wonder, and will continue to be merely pedestrian.  Blanton has never been anything special, and Moyer had a hot spring, but is hardly a reliable product in the rotation.  Happ is the one thing to hold on to, in that he had a really good year in his time up last year.  There is no guarantee that that will continue, that he won’t get figured out by the league and fail to adjust, that he won’t suffer the sophomore curse.

Pedro Feliz was such a solid feature at third base that I just don’t buy that Polanco is anything more than a lateral move at best.  Your bullpen is extremely suspect, and while you do have a potent offense, the Mets did match you in runs scored prior to the injury-plagued 2009.   This offseason you lock up a couple of your players to long term contracts, and coupled with letting Lee go, it’s apparent you don’t have the money to fill any holes that arrive this season.

So, while you get many props for winning the division in previous years, the calendar has turned and that buys you nothing in 2010.  You’re at the top of the hill but you’re teetering at the edge.  All it would take is one misstep, or one good push, for you to go tumbling back to obscurity.

While I’ve enjoyed having a real rival that’s both geographical close and in the same league, I don’t know if you can keep it up for long enough for us to say that Mets-Phillies is better than Yankees-Red Sox and really mean it.  The Mets have some minor injuries to start the season, so you should take advantage of it while you still can.  If you can’t start getting ahead in the race, the Mets will steamroll right by you when they’re back to full strength.

It’s going to be a fun and combative year.  Can you handle it?

Your bitter enemy,

Optimistic Mets Fan

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Letters to the NL East, Part 3/5

(To read past year’s letters, click here)

Letters to the NL East, Part 3 of 5. (part 1, part 2)

atlantabraveslogo

Dear Atlanta Braves,

Oh how the mighty have fallen! I barely even have any ill will towards you anymore.  It’s been five years since you won the division and it’s been a long five years.  You don’t appear to have the tools to make it this year either, although the rotation does have some promising young arms in it.  Had you not traded Vazquez, I’d almost be worried.

I don’t have a lot of faith in your bullpen holding up long term, as it feels like you downgraded there as well.  Your offense has long been a weak point, and it probably still will be barring Heyward having a rookie season to rival Pujols and Reyes for the MVP and Larry Jones being healthy enough for the entire season.

You’re one of those middling teams that no one really wants to play because you’re not a push over, but you’re also not good enough for a rivalry either.  Just boring.  It’ll be interesting to see if you guys finish above .500 this year or not, and maybe you can help out the Mets a little by playing the Phillies hard.

One thing for sure, Bobby Cox is not getting another title before retiring this year.  Maybe you should’ve beaten the Yankees another time in the 90s.  Oh well.

Your former rival,

Optimistic Mets Fan

Feel free to head over to The Real Dirty Mets Blog for discussion.  Once the season finally starts, I’ll be contributing (at least) a weekly Optimism Report over there.