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Division Title is Brewing

Regardless of the struggles for the division, the Brewers inability to win games has put up a safety net for the Mets.  They own a substantial lead over the wild card challengers in Milwaukee, so that even were they to lose the division they’d likely make the playoffs.  However, with a Mets win last night, and a Phillies loss, the Mets are now one loss ahead for the division.  That’s really two, because if they were to end tied, the Mets as winners of the season series would get the division, and the Phillies the Wild Card. 

 

There are nine games left, which is also the magic number to clinch the division outright.  Seven is the magic number to clinch the postseason altogether.  Both are doable.  This team looks good right now; finding ways to win, capitalizing on errors, and not letting their own errors hurt them.

 

86 wins in the book, with nine to play.  Chances are they don’t win every one of them, but end up with a comfortable 90-92.  Which is where they’d have been last year if their collapse had been mini instead of total.  Time to finish it out, put the Phillies away, and win this division.  Leave the final weekend at Shea for Shea, not trying to make the playoffs.

 

Argenis Reyes really should just told he can come back next year.  His spot in the lineup should just read ‘out’.  I know Castillo has been slow returning from the DL, but so has Church, and we’re not killing him.  Castillo is better than Argenis, and a hurt Castillo is better than a hurt Easley, and I don’t think Castillo’s that hurt.  Maybe he’s lost a step here and there, but he still can run the bases, still can draw the walk, still gets on base.  If he can get on base, and Wright, Beltran and Delgado can hit, then everythings peachy.  Argenis Reyes however, hasn’t had a hit in over a month spanning 12 games.  He’s had one walk in that span.  Castillo accomplished both last night.

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Magic Number Mojo

Obviously baseball is a very superstitious sport.  That doesn’t mean jinxes are real, or that some things don’t have to happen the way they do.  There are some things you just can’t wait until the last minute to plan for.  The playoffs are one of them.  Many Mets fans out there don’t want anyone mentioning the magic number for instance, but if these fans got their way the Mets would wake up on October First having made the playoffs, but having even more issues.
A. They already sent the groundscrew home for the winter, so the field isn’t ready, the grass isn’t cut, the trap hasn’t protected the field, (They’re knocking it all down anyway right?), and the lines aren’t drawn.
b. No one’s showing up to see them play, since they never printed or sold the tickets.
c. The vendors and ushers aren’t there to escort anyone to their seats or sell them hot dogs.  There aren’t any hot dogs anyway, since they didn’t reorder from Aramark past September 28th. (Would anyone be surprised if the concessions are out of virtually everything that day, clinched or not?)
d. In fact, the wrecking ball is already dismantling Shea, because everyone told them to assume the season was over October first until told otherwise.  Can’t play at Yankee Stadium, since that’s meeting the same fate.   
e. If they did manage to play, it wouldn’t be on the radio.  Fox has the tv covered, but Howie Rose is already in Uniondale and Wayne Hagin went home. 
f. Mr. Met is off doing weddings and other apperances, unable to man the Pepsi Party Patrol Cannon.  

In all, the number (and not just on Metsblog) has been posted before.  ’06 as well as ’07.  Would Glavine and Mota have pitched better if the number wasn’t up there? no.  Even without it on the main page, it’d be mentioned in every thread.  Everytime you look at the standings and the Phillies score, you’re thinking “how many more Mets wins and Phillies loses before we’re in?”.  So posting it is merely giving us the info we want, which is what the blog is for.  I’m too lazy to come up with a proper auto-updating widget (and don’t know javascript well enough) to put up the Magic Number, but it stands at 13 with I believe 26 games left.  
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Can’t win them all

Wow.  Bummer of a weekend.  It turns out this team is roughly the same team as last year.  I’d originally thought the bullpen was better, but without Wagner, it just isn’t.  The bigger deal is that the Brewers seem to be freefalling again, like last year.  It’s shocking that the Phillies beat them in 4 games, but the Mets at least still have a two game in the loss lead.  One of those games is to night. 

 

I’m still not worried, this has been the trend for most of the season.  They’d get a little good run going, and the Phillies would struggle a bit.  Then it’d reverse, and the Phillies would catch back up.  But each cycle of this, the Mets seemed to gain a little bit of ground.  In July and early August, the Mets would get to a game or two lead, and lose it again.  Now they’re getting a three of four game lead, and letting it dwindle down to one or two.  I still think it’s likely the Mets win by four, and I think it’s entirely probable that the Phillies lose 3 games this week.  If the Mets can lose less than that, or go 5-2, next week they’ll be a solid three games up with a week to play. 

 

The biggest problem is still that the bullpen is unsettled.  Last year at this time, we didn’t know who to go with when.  Maybe because they were all struggling or hurt.  This year it appears to be the same story.  For the most part guys like Ayala and Stokes have been solid since coming here, but is that something that’s going to be the norm?  Or are they going to be tired out from being the go-to guys, and by the final weekend, we won’t know who to call on in a tight spot? 

 

The Mets have had plenty of opportunity to put this division away.  There have been a game here and there that they just let get away, gave up early, or couldn’t shut the door on.  They could easily be in a position that the Phillies wouldn’t even be sending out ticketing emails about coming to see their playoff push. 

 

However, it is what it is.  Let’s see the Mets end this this week, play TWO games better than the Phillies, and enter the final week four games up. The Cubs have a magic number of seven, and likely will be using those four games against the Mets for rest and setting up for the playoffs.  Just like it’s been each of the last three seasons, the division is there for the Mets taking.  

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Citi Field: Home of the Mets, and only the Mets.

 News today confirms what has probably been the plan all along.  A shiny new Home Run Apple at the Citi.  This is just as it should be, I don’t understand those that want the same old decrepit apple from Shea.  It’s worn out and needs to be replaced anyway.  Moving it would be as silly as taking the seats from Shea to put in Citi Field.

 

A lot of stuff about Citi Field hasn’t been decided or released yet.  There will be plenty of Shea mementos, and plenty of references to the Mets, despite what some people like to think.  For example, the neon guys from the outside of Shea will be featured in one of the clubhouses somewhere, and while we can’t see them, they’ll be there.  I’m sure other things will as well.  Citi Field is not some Dodger tribute either.  The façade of the rotunda will resemble Ebbett’s Field, which I think is a nice touch for the part of the stadium that will be named one of the few baseball players that actually transcends the sport.  There are a couple of names for landings and areas that are tributes to old Dodgers and Giants, and you might say it’s a bit too much, and maybe it is.  However, there will be plenty of Mets stuff all around, as well as any new memories and additions that happen will likely to Mets related.  These Dodger/Giant references are merely the way to recognize and remember the past that led to the creation of the Mets.  It’s a way for Mets fans and the next generation to not forget the roots of the team, while we move into a new state of the art facility designed specifically for the New York Mets.  Next summer, when the Mets are making memories and leaving their mark all over the place, no one will be thinking about the Dodgers. 

 

Another misconception is that the average fan is being priced out of Citi Field.  This is just people overreacting to little snippets of news and expectation.  The facts are that there will be plenty of affordable seating at the Citi, and the concessions are likely to be on par with Shea, just with more options and better quality.  I’ve heard from a variety of season ticket holders, and while the top prices for the very best seats are obscene, some people are actually paying less than they are this year.  There are definitely reasonable priced tickets, and it will be possible for everyone to see a game at the Field next year.  I believe the cheapest ticket is going to be $12, compared to $5 this year.  There will probably be the occasional special and discount too.  And this doesn’t include the Standing Room Only tickets, which they haven’t discussed yet. 

 

Of course, there are some things about the new stadium that aren’t perfect.  Despite the ‘good views everywhere’ philosophy, I don’t like the limited seating.  Financially I understand why it was done; it would probably take decades to replace the cost of building those extra 10k charging what they’d be worth.  While more legroom and closer seats is important, those next 10 thousand people that get left out of the big game would rather be inside than out.  However, the Mets rarely average more than the capacity of Citi Field, and the only reason they did this year is because it’s the last year at Shea. 

 

All in all, I’m looking forward to Citi Field a lot.  Shea Stadium has a lot of memories, but just like everyone eventually moves out of their first apartment that was falling apart but fun nonetheless, it’s time for the Mets and the fans to move to a better home.

 

 

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Who’s got the ’08 Magic?

I find myself every year kind of liking the Cubs..just because..they’re less harmless than a baby bear. Like the Red Sox did, they have a pretty loyal fanbase for never having won. And of course I’m rooting for them as much as any of those fans this weekend.

So if the baseball gods chose based on ‘magic’…who wins between the Cubs and the Rays this year? The Cubs look like one of the best teams in baseball, and they just seem to have a sense about them of winning. The Rays have now assured themselves of their first non-losing season. Ever, and yet they continue to push to replicate the ’69 Mets. So in terms of baseball magic, you’d think these two teams are the favorites for the World Series. Who wins out? My money’s on the Mets.

I have faith in the Cubs to do well against the Phillies. They took the game against their ‘ace’, and no reason why they can’t win at least two out of three here. I think yesterday around 9:30 is when the Phillies may have said good bye to first place for the next dozen years or so.

don’t pump up the Cubs too much though, we still have to face them in September, and even if we no longer have the Phillies to worry about then, we still need to win 3-1 to take a slim one game edge in the all-time season series against them.

The Yankees edge out a victory today to remain a slim six games behind the wild card leading Red Sox, a team that even without Beckett looks much better than the ‘Bronx Bombers’. The Yankees finish on the road, so the last game at Yankee Stadium will be earlier than that. Is it possible they take the wrecking ball to it before the season even ends? Either way, I’d bet that it starts coming down before the Mets clean out their lockers for the last time.

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On the (W)right Track



Does it get any better than this? The Mets continue to demonstrate that they are the class of the National League East. Braves dominate the Mets? Braves won seven of nine this year? Guess not. Better luck next year Braves.

The Phillies fall another game back, and now face the Dodgers, while the Mets face the Astros. The Dodgers are a better team, but their records aren’t that far apart. Then the two teams meet up for two next week. There are no real goals; just play better than the Phillies do. I’d like them to finish with the Phillies and be further ahead then they are now.

This was one of those games where you almost expect the Mets to drop one. They’ve been hot, they can’t win them all, Pedro can be hit or miss sometimes, and the bullpen hasn’t blown a game in a couple of days. Instead, the Mets pull one out, and now have Santana on the mound tomorrow. It doesn’t matter that it’s against Oswalt.

Now only are Ace’s supposed to stop losing streaks, but they’re supposed to string together winning streaks. All of a sudden the Mets have another winning streak, and Johan has a chance to make it longer. The Mets are on pace for 90 wins for the first time in ages. Johan on the mound, an emotional walk-off win, coupled with the return of Ryan Church, and the Mets will be rolling tomorrow night.

Things have to be looking bad for the Phillies. They lost ground despite playing the Nationals and winning two of three. They’re going into another four game series against the Dodgers, against whom they were swept recently. Could the Phillies fold under the pressure and go away so soon? Only time will tell.

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Rookies are Rosey

I’m feeling rather chipper, excuse my pun, about the state of the Mets right now. Specifically about Mike Pelfrey, and Daniel Murphy. It’s still too early to know anything about Murphy, but so far he’s looked spectacular. He may not be the greatest outfielder, but he’s not an outfielder. He’s shown the willingness and ability to play anywhere however, and if the Mets decided the best way to fill left field, for now and the future, is to keep going with the conversion process for Murphy, I’m sure he’d turn out to be more than serviceable out there.

Pelfrey has got enough major league innings under his belt now to say that he’s not a flash in the pan. Pelfrey is looking more and more like the real thing the more he pitches. The Mets organization, even without uber-conservative Peterson, wants to try to keep an eye on Pelfrey’s inning count as the latest viewpoint is that it’s important to keep the young pitchers from throwing too many innings too fast. Pelfrey is pitching too well for that. Manuel was probably thinking that he’d let Pelfrey pitch a solid six or so innings, and go to the bullpen. Pelfrey was too economical and too dominant to make a decision like that anything but stupid. With less than 100 pitches, Letting Pelfrey finish out the game for his first complete game was good for the bullpen’s stamina, Pelfrey’s confidence, the fans entertainment, and most importantly, It was good for the Mets.

Church looks like he could return soon, and where a month ago the Mets were desperate for a _second_ outfielder, now they’re trying to figure out how to have playing time for five of them…not to mention Endy, who really has been a big help, despite the horrible start he got off to. Assuming Church comes back soon, there should be enough playing time for Church, Evans, Murphy, and Tatis among the two corner outfield positions, including the possibility that some of them could give Delgado a day off. Hopefully Endy can find some playing time also, to stay sharp, and maybe Beltran can get a day off here and there, depending on the playoff race.

Everything’s coming up roses for the Mets lately.

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Pitching Holding Up

More bad news on the Billy Wagner front, as it looks like he’ll need some more time to deal with his elbow issues, but the Mets continue to find ways to win. This is much different than the first two or three months of the season, when the Mets were finding ways to lose. Of course it’s against bad teams, but the Mets do have a good record against good teams too.

I’m pretty sure Manuel was spinning his normal tall tales when he talked about moving a starter to the bullpen, but the media, the fans, and the blogosphere can’t seem to stop talking about it. I don’t think it’s likely, despite Maine’s longevity problems lately. I’d much rather see the Mets throw whatever relief pieces they have in the minors, particularly after roster’s expand, against the wall and see what sticks. Maybe all Ayala needs is a change of scenery, and he can make an impact here. If we want to talk John Maine to the bullpen for October, that’s certainly something to think about once the Phillies fall out of it.

The Phillies are probably due for another upswing after a bunch of losses, and it’s important for the Mets to stay ahead of them. This way when the Phillies struggles resurface, which is pretty much inevitable, they can lengthen the lead and start really pulling away. It’s hard to think the bullpen could possible be worse, and any improvement in the team can only make it stronger. Despite being second in the league to the Cubs in runs scored, the Mets have struggled with big hits with RISP.

The biggest factor in thinking the Mets will take this division..semi-easily.., is that the Mets seem to have made the case that they can beat anyone and can win in a variety of ways. Conversely, the Phillies have exhibited the behavior of being able to be beat by anyone. The Phillies, particularly their starters, are very hit or miss. If their offense isn’t on that day, even the lowly Nationals can beat them, and even if their offense is on, it’s possible that their pitching will keep opponents in the game.

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Where They Belong

We all know by know that the Phillies have very little fight in them. The Mets are back atop the NL East again, alone. Where they belong. If you look closely, you’ll also notice our ‘anemic’ offense has scored more than the ‘Murderer’s Row’ offense of the Phillies. Also more than anyone but the Cubs. Without Daniel Murphy’s eight, we’d be two behind. Keep it up!

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Much Needed Activation Impending

Argenis Reyes is hitting .232. He’s had some moments, and may turn out to be pretty good, but it’s not looking like it will be this year.

Damion Easley is batting .200 over the last 30 days and 21 games. Easley has never showed he’s the right guy for an everyday spot on the Mets, he’s best as a big pinch hitter off the bench.

Reports indicate Luis Castillo will be back tomorrow, and it’s not a moment too soon. I hope his DL stint has allowed his knees to heal some, so that he can get back to playing an excellent second base as well as reaching base at a much higher pace than either Reyes or Easley. Castillo also has one of the highest averages with runners in scoring position on the team this year, something the Mets often have trouble with. You could hit him 8th if need be, but I think second works for him too. Delgado’s increased power, and higher position in the order, since Castillo went on the DL will lead to a lot more runs where previously Castillo was drawing walks and being stranded.