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Will You Second Guess Sandy Alderson?

The general consensus about the Mets new general manager is that he’s a great hire and going to do great things for the franchise.  That he’s capable of advanced analysis and really understands the game.  Sure, some fans are skeptical, but for the most part we’re happy that he’s leading this club.

He’s already joked that the honeymoon is over, but how long will we truly give him until we second guess his decisions?  Will we ever give him the benefit of the doubt or will we insist we know better if he chooses someone for the roster we disagree with?

Specifically, if Sandy Alderson watches Oliver Perez throughout Spring Training and determines that he can add value to this team by being on the roster, will we be okay with it?

I doubt it.  A recent poll on Metsblog suggested that more fans would rather Perez fail than succeed.  I find this disturbing.  Oliver Perez is on the Mets, and when players on the Mets do good, the Mets do good. The Mets doing good is what matters the most.

So while I certainly have favorite players and guys I would like to see make the club like Nick Evans and Daniel Murphy, ultimately what I want is the best 25 guys that will lead to the Mets having the best possible club to start the season.  If that means Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo, or even Jose Canseco, I’ll root for them to do well.

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Mets Blasphemy List

These are statements that I  think most fans consider to be blasphemy.  What statements are on your Mets Blasphemy List?

 

Jose Reyes will not be a Met his entire career.

 

David Wright will not be a Met his entire career.

 

Yadier Molina is not the Anti-Christ.

 

It was probably time for Seaver to go anyway.

 

It’s okay to root for the Yankees too.  After all, this is New York right?

 

Darryl Strawberry and Dwight Gooden are True Yankees™.

 

Blue and Orange don’t look good together.

 

#17 belongs to Kevin Appier, Fernando Tatis, or Luis Lopez.

 

The tomahawk chant that the Atlanta Braves Fans do is kind of cool.

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Random Mets Stuff From 2003

I pulled some random Mets stuff out of the attic. Mostly magazines and ticket stubs and such.

Here’s a stub from 2002.  713B was just to the first base side of home plate.  Box B, seat 8 means we were technically the 4th row from the front.  There was probably an annoying red bar in our line of sight as well.   I don’t remember much of the game, but I went to retrosheet.org and learned that the Mets lost 9-8.  Rollins was 2/5 with a walk, that bum.  Jeff D’Amico  took the loss to fall to 4-8.

Here’s an interview with David Weathers that was printed in Volume 42, Issue 3 of Mets Magazine in 2003.  Brilliant stuff, like how he came to wear the number 35! (Marcel Lachemann had 53) I always kind of liked Weathers; I tend to like players who have names that are also things, like Weathers, Cook, or Strawberry.  I like how they show Weathers in both a black uniform, and a pinstriped one with a blue cap.  Appeal to the Shannon Shark‘s of the world, and “Generation Piazza”.

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I’d Buy This: R.A. Dickey Jersey

Dickey is awesome. He’s such a fun player to root for.   He’s a  smart guy, he truly cares and appreciates the game.  He’s finally finding success after a middling career.  So why aren’t the Mets promoting more gear with his name on it?  Even without the puns?  Sure, you can customize stuff online, but that’s not the same as being able to walk into the Mets shop and buy a variety of Dickey jerseys and gear.  The Mets also don’t get the same profits due to revenue sharing if it’s personalized and bought online compared to in their shops.  This niche does get filled, but it’s filled via third party retailers like the7line.com.
The same could be said for Pagan.  This team needs to get better at embracing fan favorites, even if they’re not the best players on the team or signed to long term contracts.  Joe Smith came up and had a good April and fans were excited.  I’m sure some would’ve bought a shirt. Pedro Feliciano was a reliever, but he was a very good one and he’d been here long enough that maybe some fans would’ve wanted to honor that.

Have some fun with it. Make a promotion out of it.  Declare it Dickey day.  It would be similar to the foam fingers the Mets made that said “Make Wright #1” as part of an All-Star campaign.  It’s quirky and a bit silly, but it’s also fun and harmless attention.  Give out halos, or free Angel Pagan t-shirts, and have an “Angels in the outfield” promotion.

Addendum:  Modells had a huge online sale a couple of weeks ago. (Mets Police, via Media Goon, notes a sale on jerseys today) So I purchased items you won’t find at Citi Field.  I got myself a Pagan jersey (The new cream alternate from last year), and a blue Dickey name and number shirt.  Also, an “I Like Ike” shirt, because..well you know.   In addition to this I bought two shirts for my wife.
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They Played Baseball!

Men, some of them even with METS written on their chests, played baseball this weekend!  I know some don’t get excited for exhibition baseball, but it’s a beautiful day in New York and the familiar sounds of baseballs are in the air and on the screen.  Opening Day doesn’t seem far away.

It’s not even about the results.  The results this early in the Grapefruit League season are practically worthless.  That players are getting reps and throwing pitches and swinging bats and catching and throwing the baseball is enough.   Not that that will stop  fans and even beat writers from proclaiming who will make the team and who will get cut.  I’m not ready for that yet; Those are late spring decisions.

I’ll be headed to Florida for three Mets games in mid-March.  I’ll have some fun tweeting pictures and observations and just basking in the excitement of being at a baseball game.  Until then, read my posts from week about what to watch, and what not to, in Spring Training.

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How Do Outsiders View Mets Fans?

A lot of what we feel and think about the Mets is colored by being a fan.  Even when you step back and try to be analytical about it, chances are the amount you care tends to affect your judgement.  This goes the other way too.  The amount Phillies fans dislike the Mets plays into their partisan appraisal, and the amount beat reporters just flat out don’t care about the team has them analyzing it a different way.  Perspective colors all aspects of the game.  Chicago Cubs fans may not feel we have much to complain about.  Islanders and Nets fans may laugh when we talk about playing second fiddle to the Yankees. Football fans may be jealous that we get to watch our team more than 16 times, and NHL fans may wish they could set outside in the sun and watch their team.

How do non sports fans view us? (Yes, such a person does exist) To help illustrate I’ll share a picture from my wedding and a line delivered by the best man.  I think this image illustrates the tough-luck Mets fan, the supporting spouse, and how they’re viewed from outside the fandom.  (And yes, that’s Mr. Met (and likely a knock-off based on the number) on my wedding table)

This picture was taken just after the best man delivered this line: “And finally, Debbie, I want to give you my personal assurance – unlike the Mets, Mike will never break your heart.”

Unlike the Mets, Ceetar will never break your heart.

And thanks to Tracey Elizabeth Photography for capturing this great moment.

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Carlos Beltran in 2012

My ideal situation with Carlos Beltran is that he has a good year, and the Mets negotiate a new, reasonable priced contract with him and he moves to right field in 2012. I know this might not be the perfect baseball move, that from a pure numbers standpoint it may not make sense to retain Carlos, even if he has a good year without injury.  Baseball is more than a fantasy draft of the best statistical robots that put up a certain line of stats; it’s also very emotional, and I happen to like Carlos Beltran.  I’d be very happy for him to finish successfully, and one day add his number to the wall of retired Mets out in left field.  Beltran has been a great teammate and a great part of the New York community since he’s arrived, and I think continuing that into perpetuity would be great for both him and the Mets.

So while other fans seem to be counting the days until Beltran is no longer a Met, or thinking about possible trade targets for him now or by the trading deadline, I’m hoping he somehow remains a successful Met for the rest of his career and thinking about ways that that can happen without sacrificing team success.

The biggest issue with Beltran is that he has bone bruises on his knees that don’t heal easily, and he may never fully recover from them.  The brace he wears is meant to minimize the damage to his knees and those bruises, but he’s only been wearing the thing for two months worth of games so it’s hard to get a sense of how much it affects him.  His bruises were better at the end of the season than they were when he started rehabbing to return, which is a good sign.  The perfect, if unlikely, situation would be that his knees heal completely and that the brace becomes second nature to him and doesn’t inhibit his swing or ability to run in any way.

So if Beltran were to prove himself healthy and productive in 2011, what would be a reasonable contract for him to satisfy my emotional desire for him to remain here, and yet not inhibit the Mets from being great, and continuing to be great?  His contract currently pays him 18.5 million dollars, which is definitely too much.  Technically he’s only making 13 million, as 5.5 of it is deferred.  Even if the compromise was the same amount in his paycheck, that’s probably also a bit high for anything but a one year deal for a player turning 35 at the start of the 2012 season.  Something more along the lines of three years at 27 million seems to be what he might be worth going forward.  The Mets could lace it with all sorts of incentives for games played and awards received.  If three seems too much, maybe two plus a vesting option based on games played, and therefore health, for the third year.

I have no idea if that’s something Carlos Beltran, or his agent Scott Boras, would accept.  I have no idea what, if anything, Carlos could do to make the Mets consider keeping him.   Based on his work in the community, and his comments about staying a New York Met, I do believe Carlos wants to be here, but often money talks.  This is all predicated on Beltran having a good 2011 season and looking like he can continue to produce for multiple years anyway, but based on how he was doing in September last year I believe that he can definitely contribute if he can manage the situation with his knees.

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Signs of Spring

There’s snow on the ground again and it’s freezing out.  Not to fret though, because baseball is getting closer!  Check out this cartoon by Jim Borgman (of Zits fame) that represents this time of year so perfectly.

Also, as The Happy Recap points out on Twitter, the first Spring Training Mets broadcast is close enough to show up in a TV guide.

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Optimism Is Not A Sin!

Last week Ted Berg wrote this piece about optimism in response to a different optimistic post by Patrick Flood. Scratchbomb retweeted it, noting that optimism is not a sin.  I like the phrase, and it’s good to see others jumping aboard the optimism bandwagon and joining the club (see the sidebar to join the Optimistic Mets Fan Club on Facebook), whether it’s just front office philosophy or not.
Optimism Is Not A Sin
Ted and Patrick wrote about optimism mainly in regards to the Mets offseason moves, and sabermetrics.  A lot of discussions these days get twisted into an “everything Omar did was bad and Alderson is a sabermetric genius and won’t make those same mistakes.”  Sure, Omar didn’t rely on advanced statistics as much as Alderson does, but as Ted suggested, the Mets aren’t in a position to lose 120 games.  There were flaws in this team, even without the injury issues, but the team is talented, promoted minor leaguers that have contributed and will contribute in the future, and is in a good position to add pieces in the future as need be.  Moves are not necessarily easier to be positive about just because they are made with a larger emphasize on advanced statistical analysis and the Chris Youngs of 2011 are looking to fill a much larger role than the bench spots Omar signed Jacobs and Matthews Jr to last year.

Sabermetrics or not, the Mets offseason was a collection of minor signings meant to represent depth and upside.  There weren’t many good or great players to be had at anything approaching reasonable value and the Mets roster wasn’t the swiss cheese of baseball rosters that many made it out to be.  Alderson hit the holes, and hit them hard.  Multiples options for second base and lots of bench guys to slot in at various positions around the field to provide suitable backups and provide depth should a regular need to sit out a couple of days.  A handful of pitchers who have potential, or have had a great year or two when they stay healthy to make up the two empty rotation spots, and a barrel full of relievers to make up a bullpen in what sounds like it will be a no-holds barred cage match in Spring Training for the last three or four spots.

Optimism is not a sin.  I try, and I’ll continue to try until the division is clinched, to make a case for how and why the Mets will win the division. The odds may be stacked against them and they may need more things to go right than would be considered normal luck but that doesn’t mean they it’s impossible, or that it’s useless to be hopeful and upbeat that they can happen, and that the Mets can win.

I truly believe that the Mets could have one of the best offenses in the National League, and I’m not going to be shy about proclaiming that.  Looking at the lineup, it’s certainly not a stretch.  There is a certain amount of recovery from some and growing from others needed for it to happen, but it’s not out of the question.  Closer to Opening Day I’ll make my official case for how and why I’m predicting the Mets will clinch the division on 9/25 against the Phillies.

Most importantly, the games still have to be played.  Every year there are dozens of pitchers that were great and revert to being pretty average.  There are rookies that take off in their second year to have great years, and players that overcome injury in previous seasons to have bounce back years. When those players bouncing back are perennial All-Stars, the bounce is that much higher.  There are surprises every season; no one knows what’s going to happen.  Even the predicted favorite from the offseason rarely makes it all the way to the World Series. Take the Sports Illustrated picks from last season; not even one supposed expert got either of the pennant winners correct.

So don’t get caught up in the negativity around the Mets.  There is nothing wrong with thinking some of the Mets signings will have a good year and stay healthy, that Ike Davis could blossom into an excellent player or that Reyes and Beltran in their walk year put up numbers close to their career norms.  With better coaching and leadership it’s a pretty good bet that the Mets will get more out of their talent than they have in years past.  Remember: Optimism is not a sin!

Update: Here’s a post by Brian DiMenna who’s joined the Optimistic Mets Fan Club.

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Hu’s Telling the Jokes Around Here?

I can practically guarantee that this conversation will happen during a Spring Training broadcast.
Gary Cohen: “It‘s the bottom of the third inning here at Digital Domain Park.  The Marlins just made a pitching change, bringing in their ace Josh Johnson to get his work in.  David Wright at the plate with the bases loaded.

Ron Darling: “The Mets are down a run, this is the perfect opportunity for them to tie the game even with an out.”

Keith Hernandez: “They’ve got some speed on the bases.  With..who’s on first?”

Gary: “Hu’s on second.”

Keith: “No, on first. Who’s there?”

Gary: “Yes.”