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Stop With The Rebuilding Year Excuse

Playing the Mets MarketA quote by Terry Collins “I don’t want these guys ever to come in that clubhouse where they’re not expected to win the game,” conflicts with what many fans feel; That the Mets aren’t expected to do anything this year.

 

The thing is, they ARE expected to do stuff this year.  Win games, play hard and play baseball.  No professional organization goes into a season, particularly the staff in the clubhouse, with the attitude that it’s a throwaway year.  Terry Collins expects the Mets to win.  David Wright expects the Mets to win.  Maybe they have their reservations about the likelihood of them finishing first when all the chips fall, but until they do they’ll be trying their hardest and doing their best.  They certainly don’t believe it’s a done deal that they can’t win anything.

 

This is the best quality of Terry Collins in that he doesn’t let anyone play the woe is me card.  He demands effort and hard work from his players and I think that leads to a good clubhouse and a positive atmosphere.  He’s not making excuses and not making decisions with anything but how to win as many games as possible in mind.

 

Since the Mets don’t do this, it’s silly for fans to suggest they should.   No one should bring Harvey up immediately after he’s had two good minor league starts in April just to see how he looks in the majors.  They shouldn’t shut guys down for the first hang nail or muscle twinge because it’s a rebuilding year and it’s better to be safe than sorry.  They shouldn’t just let Andres Torres play out the string to keep Kirk Nieuwenhuis’ arbitration clock from starting if he’s the best option for the Mets.  Sandy Alderson is not making moves solely with the hope that his acquisition will lead to a greater return on investment when he trades him in July.  That’s not to say he’s not cognizant of the option, particularly for guys like Frank Francisco, but to think that was his main motivation in signing him is misreading the situation completely.  There’s a big difference in building a flexible roster that gives him lots of options and playing the MLB free agent market like it’s Wall Street.  The Mets roster is not actually a NASDAQ ticker.

 

This does not excuse failure either.  It’ll be easy to dismiss the Mets after a game they lose with the comment, “They aren’t good anyway”, but there is no reason to ever excuse failure.  Terry Collins certainly isn’t going to accept that as an excuse for a poor stretch of games, so why should we?  To view the entire season as some sort of strategic set-up for 2013 and 2014 takes all the actual joy of watching baseball and gives it the importance of a Spring Training game.  There is a reason why the awards aren’t given on paper before the season after all; no one really knows what’s going to happen.   Rather than prematurely write off 2012 and analyze everything and everyone based on their value in 2013 and beyond, watch the games and enjoy the ride.   If ultimately the ride doesn’t take you to the heights you want by the time it ends, you’ll still be able to get on again next year, and the year after that, and the year after that..

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Tim Byrdak And New Mets Competitions

Tim Byrdak will be on the disabled list until at least May.  This opens up a competition for lefty reliever in a Mets camp that hadn’t previously had a lot of jobs available.  Couple that with Scott Hairston‘s injury, and the door is open for some guys to make the team that previously didn’t have much of a chance.

 

This may not be a bad thing.  Tim Byrdak settled down after a bad start, but he wasn’t making anyone forget Pedro Feliciano.  Similiarly, Scott Hairston ended up with pretty decent numbers, but his numbers against lefties were down from his career numbers.  Neither of these guys are what one would call irreplaceable, and opening up the job to others may result in the Mets finding some that even does the job better.

 

Certainly none of these jobs are high-impact jobs.  Byrdak pitched merely 37 innings last year, and Hairston only had 145 plate appearances.  So even if the Mets couldn’t find replacements that would do as good a job, the overall effect on the Mets will be minimal.  Other pitchers will get a chance to get outs, and the right-handed pinch-hitting duties will be filled by someone that gets that job done.  Ronny Cedeno and Justin Turner both figure to get some of them anyway, so it’s unlikely the Mets even notice Scott Hairston is gone, unless further injury happens.

 

Chuck James, Danny Herrera, Garrett Olsen, and perhaps Robert Carson or Josh Edgin, are the guys pegged to replace Bydrak.  Vinny Rottino, Adam Loewen, Mike Baxter, and maybe Kirk Nieuwenhuis are the guys in line to replace Scott Hairston and were already competing for a bench spot.  Now two of them will likely get a chance.  None of these guys is likely to come in and make a huge difference, but it’s certainly possible they can at least approximate what Byrdak and Hairston did last year.  There is also the possibility of Sandy Alderson adding someone late in Spring Training to fill a role.

 

Depth is what gets hurt when you have to go to the next in line.  Even if the next in line guys are better you run the risk of further injury forcing you to play someone completely not ready, or not very good.  Lack of depth has been a buzzword to describe the Mets this spring, perhaps unfairly.  In this case the Mets have suitable guys on the depth chart to step in.  That’s the not the case for every position certainly, but if you look around most major league camps you don’t find prospects nipping at the heels of most position players, and you certainly don’t find talented major league veterans just hanging out in AAA waiting to help out.  The Phillies for example have guys like Michael Martinez, Ty Wigginton, and Scott Podsednik floating around on various parts of their depth chart.  Depth is a fluid concept, and Sandy Alderson has suggested there’s room in the budget to make some in-season adjustments.  So what you see is not necessarily the whole picture.

 

I’m interested in seeing how these guys do with a chance to crack the roster.  Hopefully fostering this competition will be good for them, and the Mets will go north with guys ready to contribute in these roles.

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Mets Phrases To Avoid This Season

It’s a new season with fresh players.  There’s nothing to be gained by comparing this year’s team to last year’s.  So here’s a couple of phrases to avoid so we can all just enjoy the 2012 Mets season.

 

“That would’ve been a double/out last year”

“That wouldn’t have been a home run last year”

“Reyes would’ve gotten to that ball.”

“Reyes would be on third base right now.”

 

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Dueling Brews: Another Beer Idea For Citi Field

Terrapin Brewery TapBrooklyn Brewery TapThis is an idea I’ve been bouncing around for a while, and then The Crazy Mets Fan made a comment on Twitter to Matt Cerrone that he should get a pub in Citi Field called Cerrone’s with some nice IPAs.  I chimed in (and you can follow me on Twitter here) that they should do dueling brews.

 

This started as a thought about a variable beer menu at Citi Field.  The best beer bars are not the ones with a good selection, but the ones with a rotating selection of seasonal and small release beers.  The idea was solidified while following the Giants Super Bowl run this year.   Brooklyn Brewery in New York and Anchor Steam in San Francisco made a wager on the NFC Championship game that the team’s brewery that lost would serve the beers of the other brewery.  Brooklyn beers flowed in San Francisco, and it was wonderful.

 

So why not do the same thing at Citi Field?  We know which teams are coming in for each homestand.  Why not have two rotating taps, one serving beers local to New York (minus the Bronx) and one serving beers from the city of the away team.  These two taps would ‘duel’ until one was empty, becoming the winner.  I’m not quite sure what the beer would win besides an announcement that it’d won, but it’d be a fun way to introduce Mets fans to the brews of their enemy and provide the beer-loving masses, who’s size is underestimated, with some nice beer to drink while watching baseball.

 

The first homestand features the Braves and the Nationals.  I don’t know what the availability and distribution rules are for acquiring beer from far away places, but Terrapin is an Atlanta brewery that you can find in New York, so it’d be a good choice.  Washington DC is a little tougher, and perhaps the toughest baseball city.  Baltimore has some options, but that’s a different team.  Shenandoah Brewing bills itself as Washington DC’s only brewery, but as far as I know they don’t distribute to New York.   Flying Dog is nearby, but it’s based in Maryland and equidistant to Baltimore.  On the other hand, AL is junior league baseball and it doesn’t really count.

 

I think this would be a cool idea.  Citi Field needs more distinctive beers outside of the Anheuser Busch distribution agreement and why not tie it to what’s going on on the field?  That’s why we all go there after all.

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Some Optimism For Mike Pelfrey

Mike Pelfrey pitches against the Marlins on May 16th, 2011Mike Pelfrey‘s FIP has actually stayed pretty steady over the last four years, and his xFIP was even steadier. The main difference being that he game up less home runs in 2008 and 2010.     So the question becomes what was it that caused the home run rate to be lower in those years?  Was it dumb luck, or some adjustments on Pelfrey’s part?  Personally I think his xFIP staying the same is precisely what’s wrong with the stat.  Pelfrey clearly pitched better in 2010, particularly in the first part of the year, than he has since.

 

There probably still is some luck to it.  The margin of error for flying out instead of hitting a home run is tiny.   Optimistically, Mike Pelfrey’s numbers in 2011 were probably at the far end of bad luck and it’d be pretty easy to see how even with changing almost nothing he’d probably have a better result in 2012.  Hoping for lucky bounces is not a good philosophy for a major league pitch to adopt however.

 

Pelfrey is working hard this Spring at his sinker.  This is something he admittedly struggled with in 2011, and harnessing it against should be a positive.  For one, it’s a different look than teams are used to.  Adding in a pitch provides a new wrinkle to the scouting report and helps keep hitters off balance.  Additionally, sinkers are harder to hit out of the park as they are harder to hit in the air.  So far the reports are positive on his feel for the pitch.

 

With luck and the sinker, Mike Pelfrey should be an improved pitcher again in 2012.  Throw in a likely improved bullpen and more of Pelfrey’s games should turn into Mets wins.  That only happened 12 of 33 times last season.

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Quick and Easy Guide to Mets Spring Training

Spring Training Drills, March 18th, 2011 by CeetarThis isn’t a guide to every last detail of Port St. Lucie, but I’d like to share my observations about watching the Mets down there.  Tonight is the first televised broadcast, and also the first audio broadcast.

 

The most interesting part, in my opinion, is the morning workouts.  These occur pretty much every day, even on non-game days, on the fields behind Digital Domain Park.  You’ll see the entire camp full of players out there, except ones that may be playing in an away game, doing workouts and drills.  Minor and major leaguers in all shades of Mets uniforms wearing all sorts of different numbers.  You’ll see guys you’ve never heard of, even if you pay pretty close attention to the minor leagues.  They’ll do all sorts of interesting drills and you’ll see the coaches and managers barking orders and instructions.  You’ll get an inside look at how players prepare for games and seasons.  You’ll see them practice learning the signs and just doing baseball things.  Sometimes the minor leaguers will start playing a game near the end of the session, this is normally the time the regular players retreat to Digital Domain Park to prepare for the regular game.  Usually you’ll be asked to leave, but sometimes you can catch an inning or two.

 

You can get autographs if you’re persistent, but during workouts these guys are mostly working so you’ll have to be quick and paying attention to who may have a moment.  They’ll have to walk by you to get from field to field, and often this is when they’ll sign.  Another good time to get autographs is after games, particularly if it’s an away game and the players are headed back to a bus or their cars if it’s close. When the Mets travel to nearby Jupiter to play the Cardinals or the Marlins, many players drive.  Many people looking for autographs wait in the walkway between the players’ exit and their parking lot.  This is also a good way to get a look at what cars players drive.  Autographs are there to be had, so if that’s your thing you should have no problem.  Normal rules apply; if you’re a cute girl or a kid you’ve got the best shot.

 

Spring Training tickets are often not expensive, and it’s a chance to get seats that are really close that would be virtually impossible to get at a Major League park.  The atmosphere is so much more relaxed and casual and it’s a fun time all around.  Both years I went I sat first row in front of the Mets bullpen, literally within touching distance of all the pitchers as they warmed up to go in.  Close enough that they can here what you’re saying to the people you’re with.    There are season ticket holders in Florida, but there are still seats available mere rows behind home plate too. And it’s roughly 10% of the cost of a Major League stadium.

 

Another fun activity that’s probably more common in places like Port St. Lucie than Tampa Bay is player-spotting out on the town.  Most people know about Duffy’s, a chain restaurant with a bowling alley attached down the road from the Spring Training Complex.  SNY films some segments there, and it’s a common place for players to hang out too.    The Mets do bowling nights on Sunday evenings, so if you want to watch baseball players playing a different sport that’s the perfect time.  Port St. Lucie is not a tiny place, but it’s not a city so there are only a limited amount of places to go for a nightlife experience.   Another good place is Vine and Barley which is a wine and beer bar down the road.  The last time I was down there I ran into Scott Hairston, Justin Turner, and Kai Gronauer, and I’m pretty sure there were one or two players down there I didn’t recognize.  Even on a non-baseball front I suggest this place, as it’s got self-serve wine tastings and an excellent beer menu.

 

The worst part of Spring Training is when you return home.  You’re so ready for baseball that it feels wrong that there are no longer games you can attend.   Still, it’s great time and a must-do for baseball fans.  It’s baseball and warm weather and a great way to start to get excited about the new season.  If you’re headed down this year, have a great time and tweet lots of pictures!

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Some Thoughts on Dynamic Pricing

The Mets now have their dynamic pricing guide online on Mets.com.  Tickets first went on sale to certain presale codes Monday.  I got Opening Day tickets at face value, but just three hours later they were $10 higher.  Btw, at 10am today the Mets blogger presale  begins.  More details here.

This ultimately sucks, although it won’t quite hurt the true fans.  Dynamic pricing does not change the prices of packs and plans.  If you want a particular promotion or banner day, you have an incentive to buy ahead beyond just getting better seats.  As more fans get exciting about specific events, the price will go up.  This will have a fairly catastrophic effect on suddenly popular games.  Clinchers, Dickey’s first home game after his no-hitter, and late season divisional matchups during pennant races can suddenly become very expensive.  Staying ahead of the hype will save you money.

 

On the flip side, it’s unlikely tickets will plummet that far for unwanted games.  The Mets set up an artificial floor so that a fan will never pay less than a season ticket holder paid for that section.  Reading between the lines to me means that it’ll never be less than the 10% discount they get.  Prices are fairly reasonable for value games as they are, but it’d be nice if the more expensive games become affordable if the Mets are eliminated early or if the weather is supposed to be really bad.

 

Another interesting use for dynamic pricing is tracking the popularity of games.  It can give us insight into tickets sold that previously only the Mets knew.  If you want to know how Banner Day is doing for example, you can check out the prices for that game against a similarly valued game and see if it’s inherently more popular or not.  As we get a feel for it, we’ll probably be able to tell how close it is to sold out, even within specific sections.

 

I’ll also be curious to see how the secondary market reacts.  Sites like Stub Hub and Seat Crew that deal in second-hand tickets may not be able to keep up with the fluctuations.  If a game suddenly takes off in popularity, it will take a while for people to unlist and relist their tickets.  If ticket prices drop, the secondary market will suddenly be overpriced.  This may also kill day of game sales.  If fans really want to go to a game, chances are the prices will increase past the secondary market…unless it’s raining.

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Waiting On Line (Not Online) For Mets Tickets

Mets keychain handed out on the line for buying tickets before the 2000 seasonIt was winter 2000 and New York was in the middle of a freezing cold stretch of weather.  Wind chill estimates had the temperatures at subzero on the day that the Mets started selling tickets.  This was before you could buy them online, and me and a couple of friends decided to camp out at Shea Stadium to buy tickets for the 2000 season.

 

We bundled up with blankets and layers and thermoses of coffee and hot chocolate and drove to Shea Stadium.  We made record time since it was the middle of the night, parked, and got on line.  We were by no means first; there were dozens of people already there, maybe as many as 200.  It was frigid and we were basically standing around shivering with hundreds of dollars in our pockets because you had to pay cash.  The warmest part was when you got to move a little bit to use the bathroom.

 

Handed out on the ticket line before the 2000 season

Eventually they moved most of the line inside.  It cut down on the wind a little bit, but it wasn’t any warmer.  As it got closer to the time tickets were actually on sale a couple of players, and manager Bobby Valentine, came out and were shaking frozen hands and signing autographs as the line started to move.   Someone, presumably with WFAN, was handing out the keychains in the picture here.  Eventually we were able to purchase our tickets, which included tickets to the epic 8th inning comeback against the Braves on Fireworks Night, climbed back into the car, blasted the heat and drove back home and fell asleep.

 

Nowadays online ticket sales have done away with this camping out, which is definitely a good thing for those of us that aren’t 17 anymore with free time to wait outside a baseball stadium for hours, but there’s a certain nostalgic machismo to having braved the elements to root for your team.

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Regular Season Ticket Pre-Sale

A special pre-sale for blog readers starts Wednesday at 10am.  Follow this link and use the code HODGES to purchase tickets to any regular season Mets game.  Obviously Opening Day and the Subway Series are the ones guaranteed to sell out, but you might want to get a jump on other games as well.  You never know what supply and demand will dictate closer to the day of a game, especially with the new flex pricing.

 

My suggestions are to buy for Banner Day and the bobblehead (Edgardo Alfonzo) of your choice.  June 3rd is the Mets Hall of Fame induction for John Franco.  Complete promotional information found here.

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Will The Mets Be Better Than 2011?

Optimism starts small; will the Mets improve on 2011’s record?  Are they a better team?  Will they perform better?

 

I’m leaning towards yes.   Losing Reyes, Pagan and Beltran is a big hit, but the Mets offense is still pretty strong.  Lucas Duda looks like a solid player.  Andres Torres may not be great, but even if he’s not good the Mets have high hopes for Kirk Nieuwenhuis coming up pretty quickly.  David Wright and Ike Davis are healthy, and Daniel Murphy should get some more playing time as well.  Josh Thole and Ruben Tejada may not be the best, but they’re pretty good at not making out and keeping the line moving.  This team won’t have problems scoring runs.

 

The bullpen is clearly slated to be better.  Francisco Rodriguez will not be here, but the Mets added Frank Francisco, Ramon Ramirez, and Jon Rauch.  Some injury concerns, but the bullpen has some pretty good depth.

 

The starters are where the big questions come in.  The Mets lost Chris Capuano, who did a pretty good job for them.  Good job aside, his eminently replaceable 1.7 rWAR is not going to handicap them much.  Johan Santana is slated to take that spot, provided he does not have a setback during Spring Training.  Despite this serious possibility I have faith Santana can at least approach the 1.7 rWAR Capuano gave the Mets.  Even if he’s somewhat diminished, he’s a smart competitor that should be able to get by with somewhat reduced ability.    With luck bouncing a little more in Pelfrey’s favor this season, and Jon Niese’s peripherals leading to a better ERA, it’s possible the Mets starters will be better too.  It probably hinges most on health, but that’s an argument and concern for every team.

 

So there’s a very high-level argument for the Mets being better.  We can worry about how much better another time, particularly as it pertains to the other NL East teams and their records.  Specifically, it’ll be decided on the field with the games being played, not on a blog or newspaper somewhere before the season even starts.