New York Mets – Page 8 – Optimistic Mets Fan

February 15, 2012February 14, 2012

Baseball Is A Collection of Sprints, Not a Marathon

Baseball statistics have come a long way. We have a ton of information at our fingertips and are able to perform some pretty awesome analysis of baseball players. This includes things like projections, trying to figure out which pitchers were victims of bad luck and fielding, and which hitters are having some unsustainable success. However, baseball is an elaborate game. You can do all this work, analyze all these players, and have a pretty good idea of what should happen over a large sample of data and still have completely no idea what’s going to happen in any given moment. The cliche is that baseball is a marathon and not a sprint, but truthfully it’s probably like a whole bunch of sprints crammed together. You can make some pretty good educated guesses about who’s going to win the marathon, but each individual sprint is pretty much a crap shoot.

Ultimately everyone wants to see their team win the marathon, but most of the enjoyment comes from watching them win some of those individual sprints. A thrilling pitching matchup or a walk-off home run can be as exciting in 2012 as it was in 2006, or 1986. This is sort of the baseball opposite of missing the forest for the trees. We can get so focused on which teams are the best in a division or which individual players are the best that we miss that sometimes things happen in the individual games and matchups that are awesome and fun to watch. It doesn’t matter that Andres Torres may not be a very good major leaguer; he can still go 3-4 in one game with two home runs. Mike Pelfrey’s barely an above average pitcher, but he’s capable of pitching a complete game with 3 hits. This is especially true in April and May when you’ve just gotten into the forest and trying to figure out what the whole place looks like is just silly; relax and look at the trees!

Even the 1962 Mets played some thrilling games. That’s the beauty of baseball. Maybe Santana comes back rejuvenated and strikes out every batter he faces on the way to a Mets playoff berth. Maybe adjusting the walls make no difference and the Mets struggle to hit for power. Either way I promise you there will be fun Mets baseball this summer. At least 162 magical opportunities to see something you haven’t seen before. Who knows, maybe this is the year the Mets finally pitch that illusive no-hitter. Would you want to miss it because you have the Mets penciled in for last place and decided to spend your Saturday afternoon in June at the zoo?

February 13, 2012February 12, 2012

Mets: Bucking the Narrative since 2000

Beat writers and columnists covering a team often look for compelling stories to talk about over a long season. Bloggers and fans do this as well, although to a lesser extent and they’re less likely to look for off the field drama to drive a narrative. I’ve always been fascinated by some of the parallels and story lines you can draw from baseball. However it seems like lately every great story set-up the Mets stumble into fails to produce fruit.

In 1999 the storyline was that no one in the NL East, specifically the Mets, could beat the Braves. The Mets fell behind and ultimately needed a game 163 just to make the playoffs. When they met the Braves in the NLCS, the storyline was affirmed as the Mets fell to the Braves in six games. The season ended on a Kenny Rogers based-loaded walk, reaffirming what Yankees fans already knew about him; that he couldn’t win in New York.

The 2000 season featured the Roger Clemens bean-ball incident, where Clemens hit Mike Piazza in the head and Piazza, and most fans, clearly felt was intentional. The two teams met in the World Series, with Clemens starting game two on the mound for the Yankees. It was the perfect setup for Piazza to get his revenge and carry the Mets to a championship over Clemens and the Yankees. Instead, Clemens flung a shard of broken bat at Piazza and the Mets lost the game and the series.

The end of the 2001 season found the Mets in the center of the 9/11 tragedy. Piazza’s home run in the first game back in New York could’ve been a catalyst to lead the Mets back into the playoff race and a third consecutive trip to the playoffs. Instead they won the game but fell out of the race soon after.

In 2006 the Mets had the best record on the majors and went up against a barely above .500 Cardinals team in the NLCS, but there was no magical storyline. Carlos Beltran absolutely destroyed them, again, in a losing effort. Cliff Floyd pinch hit in what could’ve been a Kirk Gibson moment with him barely being able to run but at bat as the winning run. This was after the amazing Endy Chavez catch over the wall to rob Rolen and double-up Edmonds game. That play could’ve gone on to be one of the most amazing moments in postseason history had it led to a victory. Chavez had a chance to break open the game himself in the bottom of that same inning, and failed to do so. No magical endings to this one.

2007, and 2008, were the real start of the negative narratives. The talk was about collapses, devastation, and injury. Shea Stadium didn’t end with a bang, in fact that failed Endy Chavez game was the last one ever played in the park. Citi Field didn’t open with a bang either. Injuries piled up and the Mets crumbled under all the mess, both on the field and off.

So what’s the story for 2012? What’s the magical journey for the Mets? The one I’m hoping for is the New York Giants parallel. A team given no chance to beat Philly that’s dealt with a lot of injuries despite actually having some talent.

February 9, 2012February 8, 2012

Daniel Murphy is Pure Chaos

Baseball players don’t have enough cool nicknames. So when Ted Berg suggested, via Ike Davis, that “Pure Chaos” would be a good nickname for Daniel Murphy I decided to run with it. It may not describe his hitting style, but I do think it applies to his general approach to the game. Before you say anything, The Irish Hammer does not count as a nickname.

Howie Rose: “Coming up in the bottom of the inning for the Mets: Niese, Tejada and Pure Chaos.”

Sports Radio Update Guy: “It was all Pure Chaos at Citi Field last night, as the Mets walloped the Phillies eight to one.”

February 3, 2012February 2, 2012

It’s All About The Giants..But Not For Long

This weekend is about the New York Giants. It’s about the Super Bowl, and a championship. It’s about perhaps a parade on Tuesday and random rankings of Eli Manning among the greatest QBs in the game today.

So good luck to the Giants. I’m looking forward to this game, and like so many so-called experts on Twitter, blogs, radio and tv, I’m going to give you my meaningless prediction. 30-16 Giants. It’ll seem closer than that though. The Giants will score early in the second half to go up 23-13, and the Patriots will answer with a field goal. The next score will be halfway through the fourth quarter when Tom Brady is picked off deep in his own zone. He’ll then turn the ball over on downs on the Giants 44 yard line, and Eli will run out the clock slowly driving down the field and taking a knee.

The Giants, and NY and NJ, will celebrate. The Senate will drink NY beers bought by New England politicians. There will be a parade. Then, despite five other local sports teams playing professional sports, all eyes will turn to baseball. We’ll tick into single digits of days remaining until pitchers and catchers report.

And it can’t come soon enough. Let’s Go Mets!

January 26, 2012

New Mets HOF Member John Franco: First Pitch at Citi Field

Congratulations to John Franco for being selected for the Mets Hall of Fame.

Did you know John Franco threw out the first ever ceremonial first pitch at Citi Field? It’s true! It took place at an exhibition game between St. Johns and Georgetown. Franco went to St. Johns, so was tagged to do the honors.

January 20, 2012

Apparently Optimism Is Not A Sin

Ted Berg over at Tedquarters.net is doing a four part series on “If absolutely everything falls right” and looking at the upward bounds of expectations for the Mets roster. It’s nice to know I’m not the only person looking at the optimistic avenue. I was beginning to feel a little like Highlander as an optimistic Mets fan.

I think this post on the infield is very reasonable, and it’s even possible that some of the players overshoot his proposed projections. The most unrealistic part is them all staying healthy all year. Still, health is not an unreasonable expectation. I’m not expecting Wright to break his back again, or Ike Davis managing to fall in exactly the wrong way to ruin his season.

His second part, on the outfield, seems a tad more pessimistic to me. Maybe Bay does rebound a little. I’ve mentioned that here in the past, but I think we’re doing a disservice to Duda in projecting his ceiling defensively as “not terrible”. His outfield experience in the minors was mostly in left, and he’s only got about half a season of time in the majors. Perhaps his hulking frame tends to make one believe he’ll never be good defensively, but I think he can hit “not terrible” just by having all of Spring Training to start at the position and build on it as the year goes on. He can clearly hit the baseball, and if he were to improve on what he did last year he could be our own version of Mike Stanton. In fact, their offensive WAR on baseball-reference were very similar factoring in playing time. Ralph Kiner and Keith Hernandez both love his swing, for whatever that’s worth.

Ted dreams of Jason Bay having a great first half and becoming a trade chip and Kirk Nieuwenhuis forcing his way up to the majors. Personally I think that’s unrealistic, because I don’t think a half season of good baseball is going to yield the type of return to make it worth trading him. He’s not Carlos Beltran and his trade would come along with 24 or so million dollars owed to him and a possible vesting option. More likely if Nieuwenhuis does warrant a call-up, Andres Torres will become a fourth outfielder. If this happens we’ll lose a little defensively, but gain a lot offensively, including some flexibility with defensive replacements.

So what’s the highest fWAR we can expect from the Mets offense? I’m going to say somewhere in the 28-30 range. This would’ve had them 4th in the NL last year and best in the NL East. I think this number represents of everything goes well. It’s certainly possible that if one or two things turn out to go extraordinarily well, they could shoot past it. Because fWAR heavily relies on fielding, if the pitching does better there will be less balls in play and less fielding damage to the values. I assume part three and four of Ted’s series will deal with the rotation and the bullpen.

January 19, 2012

Are the Mets Irrelevant?

Joe Janish at Mets Today declares the Mets irrelevant. The preliminary ESPN Sunday Night Baseball schedule came out, and the Mets are not on it. Of course, the schedule only lists 10 of probably 26 or so total games, but certainly no one at ESPN thinks the Mets are going to be a draw early on.

He then asks at what point between the Mets signing Pedro Martinez and yesterday did the Mets fade into oblivion?

I think that date was when Jose Reyes signed with the Marlins. The Mets losing their homegrown star, who’s one of the most exciting players in baseball, and seemingly fading into a financial holding pattern, was a big blow. ESPN likes to air flashy stars and lots of drama.

This doesn’t mean the Mets won’t be on ESPN though. There are certainly parts of the Mets that can turn into compelling stories. ESPN would love to see a resurgent Johan Santana face Roy Halladay for instance. If the Mets were competing with the Marlins later in the season, ESPN would love to twist the knife with the Reyes at Citi Field game. The Subway Series could get flexed to prime time. If Ike Davis and Lucas Duda are blasting home runs, it could propel the Mets into a interesting story.

ESPN’s opinion on what is a draw is also high skeptical. A Spring Training beaning of Chase Utley by Mike Pelfrey and an ensuing fight could be enough to prompt them to put the first Sunday Mets-Phillies game on. Still, the Mets are clearly underdogs in not just the games but in attention. If they want to be a respected or interesting team, they’re going to have to earn it.

January 17, 2012January 16, 2012

2012 New York Met as 2011 New York Giant

Every year there are tons of examples of teams that were deemed to have no chance to be competitive that make surprising runs deep into the playoff rounds and sometimes win it all. The New York Football Giants were given very little chance to make the playoffs, and even less once they started piling up injuries in the preseason. Tom Coughlin’s job was in jeopardy nearly every week, and Eli Manning was laughed at for calling himself elite. The Giants were soundly criticized for mismanaging the cap and for doing nothing in the offseason.

Now there are only four teams left. One of them is the Giants, and no one’s doubting they have a serious shot at winning their game in San Francisco and going to, and perhaps winning, the Super Bowl.

Eli Manning won Super Bowl MVP in 2008 in Super Bowl XLII. That vindicated him some from the critics early in his career, but his failure to win a playoff since had brought back the doubts about his talent. Last year he had a lot of interceptions, and it really downgraded his status with a lot of people. In a way, it reminds me of David Wright.

I have hope that the 2012 David Wright will be a similar story to 2011’s Eli Manning. David’s strikeouts nicely represent Eli’s interceptions. Although he doesn’t have a title, Wright was a legitimate MVP candidate in 2007. In 2012 I expect to see Wright return to that form. After Eli outplayed Aaron Rodgers on Sunday there were people that were even comparing him to his brother Peyton, who may be the best ever. When the 2012 MLB season ends, no longer will we have to debate if he’s the best third baseman in the NL East. Instead critics will struggle to find a third baseman in all of baseball as good as he is.

January 16, 2012January 15, 2012

Other Citi Field Changes?

Last spring we were faced with the shocking news that Brooklyn Brewery beers would no longer be available at the Shake Shack stands out in center field. Every season at most stadiums things change from season to season. Usually they’re small things; advertisers change, menus get tweaked, music changes and mid-inning contests are different. Maybe there’s a new dunk tank, a home run apple, or a new banner or piece of memorabilia celebrating the home team.

This season the Mets are making major structural changes to the dimensions and height of the wall. This won’t have any real affect on the win-loss record, but it’ll probably create more home runs for fans. At least it’ll create a different seating area that should be interesting.

So what smaller changes can we expect at Citi Field this summer? The easy one is that Keith’s burger stand will probably become a permanent fixture somewhere and we’ll get some new test product in that space. Citi Field has an extensive beer list, but what it lacks is local community beers. While on a Citi Field food tour last season, I was told that some of the concessions were chosen because of their local affiliate. Cascarino’s is so close that if you called them up and gave them Citi Field’s address, it’d fall within the delivery zone. Hopefully they’ll take this into account when looking at the beer available next year. The only local beer outside of the Delta Club was Blue Point’s Toasted Lager at Catch of the Day. Great beer, but not enough. Nor is the couple of places you can get Brooklyn Lager. It doesn’t have to be the perfectly paired beer for Shake Shack, Blue Smoke, or El Verano Taqueria even though it should be. A handful of craft beer booths around the stadium would work just as well. Plenty of people in New York love their craft beer and want to drink something more than Budweiser at a baseball game even if Anheuser-Busch is going to brand the cans with a Mets logo this year.

Ommegang is a New York brewery from Cooperstown. There should be a tap of beer from there in every stadium across the country in my opinion. There’s already some in the Delta Club, so why not make it available to all? I bet it’d be possible to get Brooklyn Brewery, or a different local brewery, to contract-brew specific beers for the Mets. How cool would it be to be able to get a Tom Seaver Ale, a World’s Fair Unisphere Rye, or a Home Run Apple Cider?

January 13, 2012January 12, 2012

2012 Mets: The Big Tease

How’s that for a slogan? This was inspired by the Mets tweeting pictures today of Johan Santana throwing in Port St. Lucie. It was good news in the sense that his arm didn’t fall off, but throwing in January tells us little about what he’ll do in April.

It’s still over a month until pitchers and catchers report, and closer to three until the first real game. I’m thankful for the Mets sharing these types of things, and love seeing Johan on a baseball field, but ultimately this is a big tease. There’s still plenty of uncertainty with how Santana’s shoulder will hold up to a full Spring Training and following that, the season.

In a way the whole 2012 Mets season may be a tease. With the finances and roster turnover it very much feels like the Mets are in a holding pattern. That’s not to say things won’t ultimately turn out good, but there are plenty of question marks we need answers to and a lot of time before we can start finding them. 2012 may be one long quest to find the answers. What do we really have in Lucas Duda, Josh Thole, Ruben Tejada and Ike Davis? To what extent can David Wright and Jason Bay rebound? Are any of the touted pitching prospects going to be knocking on the rotation door for 2013, or sooner? Is second base the anti-matter to Daniel Murphy‘s matter, causing explosion whenever they come in contact?

Stay tuned, because 2012 may be the big tease before we find out where this team is going.