MLB Playoff Predictions

Let’s talk MLB playoff predictions. My picks are probably slightly biased, but there is nothing wrong with that. Anything can happen.

NLDS:

Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies.

My pick is the Rockies. Probably in four games. The Phillies have shown at times this year that they are not that good a team. They haven’t been playing well lately. Lee hasn’t had a good September and Hamels hasn’t had a good year, period. Their bullpen is shaky. They won last year because their pitching got hot at the right time. I don’t see that happening this year. The Rockies have the Wild Card momentum thing going for them, and they can actually pitch pretty well, which is the best thing to have to face the Phillies.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

This is another case of a hot team facing a team that coasted in. The Dodgers are a good team, but I don’t think they have things clicking. I think the Cardinals, behind their pitching and their Pujols, take this series in four games. You can never rule out the Mannywood factor, but I think even if he has a good series, which he probably will, it won’t be enough.

ALDS:

Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees

This series is being billed as a mismatch, but I think there is too much Yankees love out there. We can talk all we want about being tired and worn out, but I bet the Twins wouldn’t describe themselves that way. I think game 163 even helps them, because they won’t have time to unwind and feel tired. They barely have enough time to get to the next game. I think the Twins take the series in four. I think age catches up to the Yankees offensively, I think the pitching won’t be up to task, especially Joba after how he’s been mishandled. The one thing to say is that if the Yankees can hold off the steamroller in game one and win it, I think the Twins could cave to exhaustion and collapse in three.

Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

This is a compelling series too, and I think the hardest one to pick. I think this series will go five, and be the best series. I’m giving the edge to the Red Sox, because I think they have an edge talent wise and that will shine through, but it’ll be close.

NLCS: Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals

I think this is where the Rockies magic wears off. I think they get destroyed, and swept, by the Cardinals.

ALCS: Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins

Similarly I think the Red Sox take care of the Twins in five.

World Series: Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals

I think this is going to be the best World Series in a long time. I think it’ll go to November 5th, all the way to game seven. The Red Sox will take it in the end, winning their third championship of the decade and establishing themselves as the dynasty of the early century.

Subway Series greets the new Yankee Stadium

Welcome to the first Subway Series at the House That Ruth Cursed. The Mets get their first shot at the crosstown new Yankee Stadium, but sadly it’s without Delgado.carlosdelgado_homerun_005

The leftfield situation with the place has been very favorable to lefty pull hitters, like Delgado. Given the stadium, I can’t see any reason the Mets lefties shouldn’t start in all three games. Church and Murphy especially. I think Schneider should get at least two of the starts, and you probably want to give Fernando Martinez a shot at his first major league home run.

On the flip side, you want to be careful how you pitch to batters here. Certain batters are getting home runs on check swings so caution is tantamount. I have more faith in the Mets’ pitchers than the Yankees’ so hopefully all will go well even if Fernando (that’s Fernando number three if you were counting) Nieve will be pitching in the series.

Imagine how Babe Ruth’s ghost feels watching the Yankees knock down his house, and then building a place where he could probably hit a home run while sitting down. There is only one major league stadium still standing where Ruth played a major league game, so it’s no surprise the Red Sox have been having success lately. I’ve been wondering if the Mets will have more wins at Fenway Park this year than the Yankees. It seems likely.

The Yankees have been better lately, Red Sox series aside. Are they a better team? I don’t think so. Their pitching is suspect. Pettitte has been having poor second halves as he wears down, Burnett is doing is Pavano imitation, Wang has still not returned from the injury to what he was, and Joba has been merely average. They’ve reinforced their bullpen with starting prospects, but it still reminds me a bit of the 2008 Mets bullpen, and we all know how that turned out. Hopefully they can play a solid series and get out of their with at least two out of three.

Still Cheating

The baseball players that decided to cheat, especially the ones that cheated this century, are unlikely to have stopped cheating because of testing. In past decades these things were almost universally, if secretly, accepted in baseball so It’s harder to be annoyed at any one guy. Everyone was cheating to get that edge. But as Balco happened, as we started to talk about making baseball clean, many people continued to cheat. The guys that have been caught, A-Rod among them, aren’t likely to have stopped because of the 2004 testing policy, especially considering how weak the original penalty was. More likely these guys, used to taking something undetectable that gave them a boost, simply switched to something else undetectable. Many of them are wealthy and have access to many trainers and resources that can provide these things. So even when A-Rod tries to tell us, as guys like Pettite have told us in the past, that it was a momentary mistake, they only did it once, they’re clean now, it’s hard for me to believe. I’m sure most of them switched to HGH or something else that is undetectable in today’s drug tests.

Who’s got the ’08 Magic?

I find myself every year kind of liking the Cubs..just because..they’re less harmless than a baby bear. Like the Red Sox did, they have a pretty loyal fanbase for never having won. And of course I’m rooting for them as much as any of those fans this weekend.

So if the baseball gods chose based on ‘magic’…who wins between the Cubs and the Rays this year? The Cubs look like one of the best teams in baseball, and they just seem to have a sense about them of winning. The Rays have now assured themselves of their first non-losing season. Ever, and yet they continue to push to replicate the ’69 Mets. So in terms of baseball magic, you’d think these two teams are the favorites for the World Series. Who wins out? My money’s on the Mets.

I have faith in the Cubs to do well against the Phillies. They took the game against their ‘ace’, and no reason why they can’t win at least two out of three here. I think yesterday around 9:30 is when the Phillies may have said good bye to first place for the next dozen years or so.

don’t pump up the Cubs too much though, we still have to face them in September, and even if we no longer have the Phillies to worry about then, we still need to win 3-1 to take a slim one game edge in the all-time season series against them.

The Yankees edge out a victory today to remain a slim six games behind the wild card leading Red Sox, a team that even without Beckett looks much better than the ‘Bronx Bombers’. The Yankees finish on the road, so the last game at Yankee Stadium will be earlier than that. Is it possible they take the wrecking ball to it before the season even ends? Either way, I’d bet that it starts coming down before the Mets clean out their lockers for the last time.

Letters to the NL East, part 0

Part 0 of the 5 park series, “Letters to the NL East”

Letter to Hank Steinbrenner and the New York Yankees.

Dear Yankees,

We get it, you’ve won a lot. Guess what? You haven’t won a lot recently. You’ve lost four consecutive playoff series, and the first in historic fashion. You haven’t made a significant acquisition during that stretch, and you didn’t this year either. You’re biggest claim in the offseason was retaining the guys you had, but the guys you had didn’t get you anywhere.

Joba and Ian and Phil are gods? Well, we’ll see. I’m sure you don’t need anyone to tell you about Generation K, or that less than 10% of top prospects succeed in the majors. Hughes and Chamberlain have already had some success, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be successful over a full season. Pettite’s only older and it’s unlikely Wang wins more than the 19 games he won last year.

Hank, you are a fiery guy who is always commenting on something. The new manager, Girardi, is also a fiery guy. I’m looking forward to the stories when you two bump heads during a tough patch down the road. Is this Steinbrenner v. Martin part two? Have you ever noticed how the biggest Yankee stories seem to be about non-baseball stuff? That’s not a good thing.

Enjoy being the second team in New York this year, the buzz is all here in Queens.

Your Anti-Fan,

Optimistic Mets Fan

Letters to the NL East

Baseball starts soon, and that means I’ll probably start updating with a little more regularity once there is actual content. For now I’m planning a 6 part series of “Letters to the NL East” which I’m envisioning as a sort of rally cry/smack talk analysis of what I think of those teams.

the 6th team being the Yankees, as they are close enough to warrant a little attention.

Letters to the NL East: Yankees

Letters to the NL East: Nationals

Letters to the NL East: Marlins

Letters to the NL East: Braves

Letters to the NL East: Phllies

Letters to the NL East: Mets

A-Rod and Joe Torre

The New York Yankees, as is typical of their history, again act without class in firing Joe Torre. A move that I am really happy about, because I think it opens the door for the Yankees to not make the playoffs next year. If Mariano, Pettite, Posada or/and A-Rod decide to use the manager change as an excuse to leave for another team, the Yankees will take a blow. Hopefully at least one of them leaves.

As for A-Rod, I expect it won’t be all about the money this time. He was willing to take some sort of pay cut to go to Boston. Only the greed of the players association kept him from going there. Maybe he’ll overlook getting 900million dollars this time and take merely 800million to go somewhere that he’ll be happy and have a chance to win. How much Joe Torre effects that, it’s hard to say. Likely Mariano and Posada could have made a decision by the time A-Rod does.

In my last article at totk.com, I talk about A-Rod’s impending pay day and how he’s probably worth it. Hopefully someone else realizes this and takes him away from the Yankees. The former ‘Bronx Bombers’ used to have both the single season, and all-time home run records, but now they have neither. Babe Ruth was still probably the best slugger ever, but now his curse is focused on them. A-Rod leaving would pretty much prevent the Yankees from making an attempt at either record for a long time. Losing the best player in baseball could only hurt a team.

A team that payed Kei Igawa and Carl Pavano for pretty much nothing worthwhile this season, were supposedly upset about giving Torre an extra couple of million dollars, and now they’re stuck looking for an option that has a prayer at living up to what Torre has done for the team. Likewise by not extending Rivera’s contract before the season started like he wanted, they’re risking letting him get away. There shouldn’t have been any doubt that Rivera would be wanted on the team beyond this year, but someone that makes the decisions decided it wasn’t worth paying the guy who may very well be the most valuable Yankee over the last 12 years.

Things look like they could be bleak in the future for the Yankees, just how I like them.

Faith on the Subway

I think the Mets are a better team than the Yankees, and despite the past two weeks, I think the Mets are going to win this series. I’ll give some reasons for each game, I’m not panicking, and I don’t think the Mets are either.

Game 1: Perez vs. Clemens
Oliver Perez has really pitched well here in New York. He’s pitched some of the biggest games and done well. Game 7 last year, the three wins against Atlanta, and he beat the Yankees at Shea. He lost his last start and he hasn’t had two bad outings like that all season. I expect him to bounce back strong tonight.

Obviously the offense is the problem, but I think they can wake up tonight. Clemens threw well over 100 pitches just getting through six innings against Pittsburgh, and the Mets offense is a lot scarier than that. If the Mets work counts, and let Clemens throw as many pitches as he did in his last start, he won’t make it six. Even if the Mets don’t capitalize on him, that leaves a good stretch of iffy Yankee bullpen to beat up on. Nothing wakes up bats like Scott Proctor and Kyle Farnsworth.

Game 2: Clippard vs. Glavine
Would you believe people are actually saying that this match-up favors the Yankees? Seriously? Tom Glavine is miles ahead of Tyler Clippard, and after his poor start in Detroit, you know he’s going to come back strong. The Mets often struggle against new guys, but Clippard is no longer new, they’ve seen him before, and they’re going to be ready for him. This will be another early to the bullpen day for the Yankees.

Game 3: Hernandez vs. Wang
I feel like this match-up may favor the Yankees a bit, but Hernandez is a fierce competitor, facing his old team, coming off a bad start, and has pitched very very well recently besides that. The Mets have apparently never seen Wang, but he’s been around enough that I don’t think they’re going to fall prey to him the way they would’ve if this was his first year. At the very least I think the Mets will compete, and he won’t pitch a complete game like he did recently. The Yankee bullpen could be tired by this point if my other two games went as planned, so even if he does pitch well, the Mets have a chance to put their foot down on a tiring bullpen.

The Mets are done with their slump. They’re going to win these games, because they need to start winning games. Everybody needs to have some Faith in this team. It was 24 years ago today that the Mets started putting together the ’86 puzzle by acquiring Keith Hernandez. I wonder if Gary will remember that and mention it to him tonight.

Subway Series to Atlanta

There isn’t that much of importance to say in regards to this weekend. The Mets missed out on the sweep, but they secured another series win. The Yankees look disastrous, although Tyler Clippard grabbed one of the shovels the Mets were using to bury them to excavate his team a bit. Not bad for a MLB debut. The Empire State Building will still be orange and blue tonight to display the Mets victory, and the Mets go to Atlanta 2.5 up, while the Yankees welcome in the Red Sox 10.5 back.

The overall series was pretty tame in terms of fan craziness in the stands. Sunday night picked up a bit with the Yankees in the lead and some actual fighting in the stands. I’m not sure what it is about Sunday nights, but it seems to bring out the drunken rowdy fan. I know the two or three guys sitting behind me were horrible. They didn’t shut up the entire game, chanting and yelling at the Yankees. I’m sure I would’ve despised them even more had they not been Met fans, but they were ignorant stupid Met fans, which are the worst kind. The kind I suppose I should get used to as the ignorant stupid band-wagon Yankee fans come over to Shea.

Even though some Mets struggled, John Maine, Carlos Beltran, Delgado, Green, and Scott Schoeneweis among them, it didn’t really affect them. One player who I still don’t like, despite some big home runs, is Damion Easley. Something just bothers me about the guy, particularly his defense. He seems to get to a lot of balls, but struggles to get it where it needs to go, and struggles with double plays.

A lot of talk has started to pop up about the possibility of Carlos Delgado being injured, or not fully recovered anyway. If this is the case, it’s becoming too much of a problem and he needs to do something about it. If he needs some days off, just needs to take it easy, or maybe some physical therapy he needs to get it. Of course, I don’t necessarily want to see Julio Franco there. I don’t imagine this will happen, but seeing Shawn Green there and Gomez in right fight wouldn’t be a bad thing.

I turned down the opportunity to go down to Atlanta for this series. The prospect of a 13 hour car trip was a little too much for me to handle, so I decided to just sit it out and root for them on tv. I get to enough games at Shea, and I fully intend on making to it Washington and Philadelphia to see them this year.

I still feel like the Mets have a power streak in them. They’ve had a good 7-3 homestand, but that wasn’t quite as strong as it could’ve been. Atlanta’s already 2.5 back, and with a nice push this week they’ll be 3.5 back and the Mets can hopefully put one of these streaks together in the summer to lengthen the distance.

Subway Momentum

332-332. The all-time series against the Cubs is now officially tied. It wasn’t looking like that heading into the bottom of the 9th, the Mets down 5-1 and the Cubs closer Ryan Dempster on the mound. And as anyone reading this certainly knows already, a couple of hits some walks and another couple of hits gets the Mets the walk-off 6-5 win on a Carlos Delgado single past the second baseman.

A terrific way to steal one, as Delgado put it later, and some great momentum leading into a crazy Yankee series and then the opportunity to beat up on the Braves. The Yankees on the other hand seem to be coming in under the train instead of driving it. Anyone that’s been watching these games would have to be silly to think the Yankees are going to win this weekend. Now anything can happen, and this is probably the first time the Yankees are coming to Shea where they’re actually underdogs. They could lose two of three and really all people could say is they lost to a better team. The Yankees don’t even know who’s going to pitch for them on Sunday. Actually I just heard they’re pitching Tyler Clippard, 22, who is 3-2 with a 2.72 ERA for AAA Scranton.

It was a great game to be present for, and a great start to four consecutive visits to Shea, as I’ll be in attendance for all three subway series games. I’m 3-4 at Shea this year so far, 4-4 for home teams including my visit to Dolphin Stadium. This was one of the best of the season. I was at Opening Day which was great too, but the come from behind walk-offs are something special. The Mets basically conceded the game before it started, Jason Vargas making his first start, and the Mets rested everyone but Delgado and Green. It didn’t matter, Vargas didn’t pitch that badly except for one inning and I think he should get another start, and Gotay came through in a big spot twice, as well as some other players getting some key hits for a big win. It’s wins like this that are the difference between a good 92-94 win team and a great 97-100+ win team.