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Are The Mets Being Too Protective Of Their Starters?

Dan Warthen and the Mets have come out with a plan to have the starting rotation ease into the Spring and not really start gearing up until about March 5th. This is an injury prevention and workload reduction philosophy that’s geared towards keeping them healthy all season, but I’m concerned.

My main concern is that skimping on the prep work is never the right way to train. To be ready for physical activity the most important thing to do is physical activity. You practice. You stretch. You don’t amp up the activity to new levels until you’ve hit the target below it. In the ‘30s the coaches had Babe Ruth basically not use his legs at all during Spring Training in the hopes that they’d be stronger for the season, which is obviously ridiculous, and didn’t work. Spring Training these days is specifically this long in order for the pitchers to really stretch themselves out in time for the season.

This isn’t different than the Mets philosophy the last few season though. Warthen said that the goal is to have each of them at least get to 90 pitches once before the season and that’s roughly how it’s gone in the past.

This regiment only leads to those pitchers going into games in April still need to ramp up and stretch out their arms to the 100-110 pitches they’ll average during the season. It’s a long season and care needs to be taken, but I bet it’d be better to take that next step in the warm Florida sun rather than cold New York nights. April games count too, but often times managers are still feeling out the relievers they can trust this year, and purposely cutting off a couple dozen innings from your starters in favor of random relievers is not in anyone’s best interest.

There’s not a lot of convincing data that this method, or any method, is going to keep pitchers healthy and effective. I’d rather see them get stretched out a little faster, and taper more in the summer months or when they show signs of fatigue before the all hands on deck month of September. The Mets pitchers haven’t been healthier than anyone else over the years either. There’s a bit of catch-22 in all of this. The rotation doesn’t have anyone that has thrown 200 innings, but is that because the Mets are so afraid of them throwing too many innings and getting hurt or because they’ve been hurt and fatigued from throwing too many innings?

Maybe this will protect the pitchers’ arms, or maybe it’s needlessly protective. They might get hurt anyway, but hopefully this means the plan is for them to be healthy, able, and not up against any pitching restrictions when it comes to September and the playoffs. If we can avoid more Scott Boras innings limit drama, we’ll all be better off.

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Statistics Rising

You can make yourself crazy over-analyzing baseball.   A week ago the Mets rotation wasn’t pitching deep into games, the bullpen couldn’t get anyone out, and people were all set to write the Mets off.  Now they’ve run off a stretch of five wins in a row, the pitchers have pitched well from rotation to bullpen, and they’re scoring runs in all sorts of ways from home runs to errors to simple clutch hits.

 

The last time a major New York sports team other than the Mets won a home game was last Sunday the 17th when the Rangers and Yankees did it.   Since then the Rangers and Knicks both got bounced from the playoffs and the Yankees are 3-3 including dropping the last two home games against the White Sox with each of their two closers, Mariano Rivera and Rafael Soriano, blowing saves.

 

An aside on the Yankees: For a team as old as they are, it has to be a little worrisome that they’ve postponed so many games already doesn’t it?  They’ve played far fewer than anyone else, and in fact only played four games last week.  Those three games will have to be made up, and it’ll eat into days off and rest time for some of these veteran players.

 

You could make excuses about the quality of the Mets opponents, but I could make excuses that they were a bloop or a lucky bounce away from winning some of those games they lost too.  Regardless of who is in the other dugout, the Mets are playing good baseball right now.  When this team is playing well, they’re capable of beating anyone.  The question has always been if they’re going to stay healthy enough to have the chance to play well, and can they sustain the success longer than the slumps they might go through when guys are struggling?

 

Also worth noting is that if the only reason the Mets are winning is because they’re playing bad teams, why can’t the Phillies beat the Diamondbacks?

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Divisions Aren’t Won in December

I believe it’s my job to try to spin Cliff Lee signing with the Phillies as not the end of the world. Start with this Hardball Talk article. Although it’s no secret that Cliff Lee is light years better than Kyle Kendrick or whoever ends up being bumped (Blanton via trade?) from the rotation as a result of the signing.

The article by Matthew Pouliot does a good job breaking down some of the specific concerns with the Phillies, particularly on the offensive side and in the bullpen. World Series, or even division titles, are not won in December. You still have to play the games. Things change drastically from year to year. Players who have been injured don’t stay injured. Players who are healthy don’t stay healthy. Players get older. Players have good years and bad. The Mets underperformed and missed by one game in 2007 and responded by adding the best pitcher in baseball..and somehow didn’t get any better.

The other argument is flexibility. Alderson’s motto so far has been to create flexibility for the Mets to be able to adapt and fix holes as they come. To sign free agents they need when they need them. Overreacting to an acquisition by the opposition and throwing out the philosophy two months in would be silly. The Phillies are now probably the definition of inflexible. Their payroll is so bulging people are reporting that they’re going to have to jettison payroll, probably by trading Joe Blanton. Their pitching depth is poor, so that if anything happens to their starting four, the dropoff is great. Their entire offense is old, neither corner outfield spot projects to come close to being above average, and they’ve lost Jason Werth.

The Mets on the other hand will have the ability, and desire, to add a player by the trading deadline to fix holes. They’ll be getting Johan Santana back. They’ll know if their underperforming core has raised it’s game. It’s entirely likely that the Mets offense will be better than the Phillies. While the Mets have rotational depth issues as well to start the season, Dickey, Niese and Pelfrey look to be very solid contributors. Sandy Alderson has repeatedly stated that he loves to make midseason moves, and he’s confirmed that he’ll have the flexibility to do so. Maybe this is the year the Mets go 40-15 down the stretch and surge into the postseason.

As the next couple of years go by, the Mets will get more and more flexible, while the Phillies will mostly be stuck with aging players making a lot of money. Cliff Lee certainly helps their chances in 2011, but it also helps accelerate their demise as repeat divisional champions.

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No John Maine in the Bullpen

A popular opinion on the handling of John Maine over the years has been to suggest he’d be better in the bullpen.  Metsblog has a post on this topic today as well.  Maine has occasionally struggled to get through 6 innings, although I would emphasize that this isn’t always the case, and some theorize that he’d have more success with being able to go all-out in one or two innings without worrying about a second time through the order.

I disagree.  I’m not saying Maine usually gets far into games, but I don’t think he’s ever a risk to throw three innings and completely task the bullpen.  In April and May of 2009 (throwing out the first June start where he was injured and went on the DL), he averaged around 5.2IP and went 5-3 with a 3.75 ERA.  This includes the first three starts of the season, where a pitcher is normally on a pitch count.  Without those he averaged 6IP over the next seven starts.  He made one bad start over that stretch, allowing five runs (four earned) over 5.1IP.  Every other start was a quality one.  So it’s not that long ago that John Maine both pitched six innings regularly and was good at it.  I know six innings isn’t amazing, but it’s more valuable than a couple of innings here and there out of the bullpen.  2010 was less pleasant for Maine, but he did have three of four quality starts after he redid his mechanics. 

My biggest problem with the idea of moving Maine to the bullpen is injury.  Maine’s injuries have always been injuries that seem fatigue and wear and tear related.  Putting him in a position where he’d possibly pitch, or get ready to pitch, every day would negate days of rest where his shoulder can just recover.   Especially with the way Manuel works the bullpen, I’d be worried this would be cause for further injury.

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RyanHoward-Rod

I like my title, shame you won’t see that on the back pages of the Post.

K-Rod.

Pretty much the best closer in the game. At least arguably. Definitely the bets Free Agent relief pitcher on the market, and as much as I’m reluctant to always try to ‘buy’ the best team, this was the right move. I’m not nearly as excited about it as I was Santana, but I’m fully of the mind that if Wagner doesn’t get hurt, the Mets win the division, and probably the Phillies don’t win the Series.

Omar filled the biggest hole with the biggest plug. We still need a a bunch of relievers, but I don’t think they need to be big name guys. Pull in a bunch of guys from the minors, waivers, other teams, rule-5, wherever, and see who can thrive in this system with these coaches and players.

The last two starters should be the next priority. I wouldn’t be against Pedro/Ollie. Not both, but one of them. Perez is probably the better option, but his consistency is infuriating and overly taxing on the bullpen’s piece of mind. I don’t trust Niese to step in and be a reliable 5th starter. I think they should assume he’ll be the guy that’ll get called up when they need a 6th, or a fill in guy when someone needs to skip a start. I’m not overly concerned with who it is, but It’d be nice to have another big innings guys so the bullpens innings can be kept down.

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The Land of the Free, and the Home of the Mets

Here come the Braves. Literally, not figuratively, though if the Mets play badly this week it could be both.

In some of the time I spend in the Hot Foot Bleachers, I mentioned once that this upcoming series is a lot bigger for Atlanta then it is for the Mets. I was laughed at, but it still holds true. The Braves are four and a half games back, which means the best they could reach is two losses behind the Mets with a sweep. If the Braves win the series, which is what I’m sure they’re setting out to do, that puts them four losses back. Three and a half games back with only 48 left to go is what the Braves are aiming for. This isn’t a threat to the Mets; the Braves have been hovering around three and a half for a while now, unable to really put on the pressure. They’ve flirted with third place more than first place.

That said, the Mets still should go out there and win this series at home. They need to brush them back with the attitude of “What? You’re still here? This is our division now, check in again sometime next decade.” They can do this; they just won series against the two contenders in the Central division, they won a seven game road trip against the West division contenders. It’s time to show the Braves that there aren’t any contenders in the East division, only a repeat champion.

I have heard no word yet on if Willie Randolph is going to pitch his pitchers on normal rest next week, taking advantage of the day off to get Maine to pitch Thursday against the Braves instead of Friday against the Marlins. It would be the right move to get the best pitcher in the rotation to pitch against the team currently sitting in second place in the division.

I want all the Braves fans to be thinking about one thing Thursday night; the Friday preseason Falcon game against the Jets.

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The First Stumble

Apr 12, 2007 05:03 PM

The Mets are now 5-3, two games out of first and one day removed from Oliver Perez’s Walk-a-thon. The pessimists are all pointing and saying “See? How are we going to compete with starts like this?”, but I’m not panicking. Perez pitched well in game 7 under pressure, he pitched well in the spring and in his first outing this year. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and blame this on the cold. Maine’s situation was similar, he struggled with his control, but he kept it manageable. This was a lot like how he pitched last year; struggling and then getting out of it. I have confidence that they’ll both improve over the course of the season. It will be interesting to see how Pelfrey does on Friday, but I think he’s ready to make an impact. The Mets bats started out well, but now they seem to have lost that groove, but only fools think that they’re suddenly not going to be able to hit. Atlanta won’t stay this hot, and the Mets are not going to struggle like this for long. If anything can get the Mets hitting going strong, it’s the upcoming series against Washington Nationals pitching.

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Mets Sweep Out the Spring Training Rust

Apr 04, 2007 11:02 PM

The Mets finished out the sweep of the World Champion Cardinals. They played very sound baseball, and John Maine pitched magnificently. If he pitches this well all season, there is little doubt that all the worries about the Mets rotation were short-sighted. Alternatively the Cardinals looked horrible. They scored two runs, in three games. They made errors, and the bullpen exploded. The Mets will definitely face stiffer competition this year, but it’s nothing this team can’t handle. They seem to be in mid-season form.

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Bad Spring doesn’t mean Bad Season

Mar 28, 2007 05:11 PM

Just a couple of more days until the season starts, and the Mets still seem to have plenty to figure out after they tied the club record for most losses in spring training today. Duaner Sanchez is sidelined for at least a couple of months and after what amounts to about a year off, will he even be as good as he was at the beginning of last year? Will Heilman still be able to be good this year with his starting ambitions and his tendonitis? How long does Shawn Green get before he gets benched for Milledge, and is Milledge ready to be a major-league contributor? What about Jose Valentine and second base? Can Anderson Hernandez learn to hit major league pitching well enough to take his job if he struggles? The starting rotation is either old or mostly untested, which leaves one question. Is this going to keep the Mets from getting to the World Series, where both the organization and fans expect them to be?

I believe that it won’t keep them from it. Spring training games mean nothing, and the players know this. The beginning of the season is full of motivating to get pumped and get into the game. First they open the season by watching the Cardinals ceremony, reminding them of their failure last year, and I’m sure the reporters there that day won’t be hesitant to ask them about it. The next series, on Friday, is Atlanta’s home opener. While none of the current Mets really have connections to the Mets struggles at Turner Field and with the Braves, they’re still a division rival who wants their title as Champions of the East back. If that wasn’t enough they come home Monday to play the home opener in front of 55 thousand fans whose last glimpse of the Mets was watching Wainwright’s pitch go past Beltran for strike three. They open against the Phillies who many people have picked to win the division this year, Shortstop Jimmy Rollins included.

The Mets have enough offense to get some runs produced, plenty of speed, and good defense in most positions. While everyone points to the Mets rotation as the weak point of the team, they do it from a pessimistic standpoint. Who’s to say John Maine, Oliver Perez, and Mike Pelfrey aren’t going to be good this year? These statements aren’t made out of recent history, as there is very little of it, and most of it’s good. John Maine and Perez pitched well last year, and came through when they were needed in the playoffs. Despite being decimated by injuries, it wasn’t the Mets starting pitching that kept them from the World Series last year.

There were many candidates for the 5th starting spot in spring, and while most of them didn’t pitch so well, it is only spring. Pelfrey will get his shot by mid-April and if he doesn’t succeed, chances are one of these other guys has been pitching well in New Orleans and can come up and pitch.

Omar Minaya shouldn’t be forgotten either. It’s perfectly legitimate to expect that he could make some moves and bring in help where it’s needed mid-season. However, without having to even do anything, the Mets will bring in a top, Hall of Fame destined pitcher around the trade deadline in Pedro Martinez. Is anyone else involved in a playoff run at the time going to be able to do as much to improve the rotation?