I believe it’s my job to try to spin Cliff Lee signing with the Phillies as not the end of the world. Start with this Hardball Talk article. Although it’s no secret that Cliff Lee is light years better than Kyle Kendrick or whoever ends up being bumped (Blanton via trade?) from the rotation as a result of the signing.
The article by Matthew Pouliot does a good job breaking down some of the specific concerns with the Phillies, particularly on the offensive side and in the bullpen. World Series, or even division titles, are not won in December. You still have to play the games. Things change drastically from year to year. Players who have been injured don’t stay injured. Players who are healthy don’t stay healthy. Players get older. Players have good years and bad. The Mets underperformed and missed by one game in 2007 and responded by adding the best pitcher in baseball..and somehow didn’t get any better.
The other argument is flexibility. Alderson’s motto so far has been to create flexibility for the Mets to be able to adapt and fix holes as they come. To sign free agents they need when they need them. Overreacting to an acquisition by the opposition and throwing out the philosophy two months in would be silly. The Phillies are now probably the definition of inflexible. Their payroll is so bulging people are reporting that they’re going to have to jettison payroll, probably by trading Joe Blanton. Their pitching depth is poor, so that if anything happens to their starting four, the dropoff is great. Their entire offense is old, neither corner outfield spot projects to come close to being above average, and they’ve lost Jason Werth.
The Mets on the other hand will have the ability, and desire, to add a player by the trading deadline to fix holes. They’ll be getting Johan Santana back. They’ll know if their underperforming core has raised it’s game. It’s entirely likely that the Mets offense will be better than the Phillies. While the Mets have rotational depth issues as well to start the season, Dickey, Niese and Pelfrey look to be very solid contributors. Sandy Alderson has repeatedly stated that he loves to make midseason moves, and he’s confirmed that he’ll have the flexibility to do so. Maybe this is the year the Mets go 40-15 down the stretch and surge into the postseason.
As the next couple of years go by, the Mets will get more and more flexible, while the Phillies will mostly be stuck with aging players making a lot of money. Cliff Lee certainly helps their chances in 2011, but it also helps accelerate their demise as repeat divisional champions.
I couldn’t agree more. Sure, it sucked to see the Phillies sign Lee: anything that makes Philly fans happy stinks in my book. But in the bigger picture, the Mets did the right thing by sticking by their new plan. This year may be a struggle, but it may not: they could have a good offense, and maybe their pitching staff will prevent enough runs for them to contend. And if not, they’ll be in good shape to do so going forward. Good post.
Wow, this is a gross oversimplification. The Mets’ offense is putrid at best outside of David Wright. They have questions in their entire outfield, the right side of their infield(sorry but Ie Davis was a fringe prospect at best and most talent evaluators see him as nothing more than a complementary piece on a good team) and behind the plate. Also Reyes might not finish the season in Queens when the Mets are 20 games out by July. Then there is hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with RA Dickey, and praying that Pelfrey’s high contact rate doesn’t send his ERA shooting up past 5 again, and that Santana can pitch effectively if and when he comes back from surgery.
The Phillies do have almost every position player over 30, yet except for Ibanez they are all 30-32 which is far from ancient, and only Rollins had chronic injury problems that weren’t the result of a freak injury. Also the Phillies do have young high end arms ready for the bullpen such as Antonio Bastardo, Scott Mathieson and Justin De Fratus, and Vance Worley is a very capable replacement should he be called on to start this season. And then there are Trevor May and Jared Cosart in the minors who will be ready right around the time Oswalt and Halladay’s contracts run out.
Yes, let’s dismiss everyone outside of David Wright as putrid but excuse the crap the Phillies are playing with as ‘flukey injuries’. Dickey proved that the lightening wasn’t a one time thing, Pelfrey’s contract rate isn’t the result of luck and the Mets actually have solid defensive players, which helps. Santana knows what he’s doing. He can still get the heavily lefty Phillies out, so they better hope they’ve run away with the division before he does return, because adding someone like that to a team in contention can make a big difference.
Project all the prospects you want, i don’t know them, but it’s unlikely they’re all going to fill out the roster like you think they will. And if they need to rely on those guys this year..well..