Friday at 2pm is an awful time to make up the Subway Series game.
Aboard the Runaway Train
I don’t buy the argument that the Mets are .500 over the last 162. It’s a misleading statistic. This team has rarely played .500 baseball. It’s played better and it’s played worse. Talent wise we all know they should be better. Anyone that tells you otherwise is either disappointed, or a Mets hater.
The biggest, and main reason for their failures has been their inconsistant hitting. They often fail to do the situational stuff, like get guys in from third, or get a big hit with runners on. They’re doing better at scratching and clawing and adding on than last year, but often they only do this, failing to have the big 5-6 run innings. Some of this can be attributed to lack of power, notably the decline of Carlos Delgado, who’s actually hit the ball well lately. However, as Keith would tell you, they didn’t always used to look for the damn 3-run home run. Could this be all the problem is? Rather then trying to simply bloop one or make solid contact up the middle, everyone’s trying to drive the ball high and far? Could someone please tell the Mets that a ground ball often scores the run as easily as the sac-fly, so stop worrying about driving the ball or long home runs and just get a hit. Maybe more guys could score from second and go first to third if every hit didn’t look like it could be caught causing them to have to hang back.
I’ll even give the Padres two of these games. Wagner is going to have the occasional blip, so maybe you give them Sunday. And the offense isn’t always going to be on, maybe an opposing pitcher actually pitches well, and maybe the Padres can take one of those other three. Still, the Mets should’ve been able to take those other two, and they have no excuses. They’re backing themselves against a wall for no reason.
100 games left. You could project numbers, guess or estimate what everyone is going to do. And you’d be wrong 95% of the time. The Mets are capable of winning anywhere from 45-70 of the remaining games. The Phillies are capable of losing anywhere from 40-60 games. Looking at the big picture is what got them into trouble last year. I say they look at being in position to take the division back from the Phillies by their next meeting in early July. That is 22 games prior to a four game series. Probably 23 games if you factor in the Yankee makeup. There is no reason why they can’t play one game better than the Phillies every week, and be in a competitive place by July.
Who knows where they’re going to go, how they’re going to play, or if the Phillies are going to keep this pace. It’s up to the Mets, and the most infuriating part of it all is that we could be on a train ride headed for a wreck with no way to get off.
Oh, and could they go ahead and announce the Yankee makeup date already? If they’r really planning on doing it in two and a half weeks, it’d be nice to know. Especially if they make it at an iffy time like Friday afternoon.
Subway Series loses some luster, but the Mets gain some
The Subway Series this year was very subdued. I’m still a fan of it, I like how it takes over the city and the general feel of it, but most of the novelty has worn off. It’s certainly no longer a David versus Goliath type match up like it was when it started, or when it reached what I think was it’s peak in 2000. It’s no longer a competition to see who is the better team, but who isn’t the worse team. Both clubs had issues to work out, and the opponent at the moment wasn’t important enough to matter. The fans, excepting when trying to shout down opposing chants and cheers, were almost quiet. I only saw half a dozen fights at the Stadium Sunday night. I’m sure a lot of that atmosphere was due to the game being a blow out, but it was more important that the Mets won, than it was who they beat.
And they did beat them. They played better baseball; hitting, fielding, and pitching. Derek Jeter, who always does well in these competitions, did well with the bat, but was average at best everywhere else. He failed to make the only high-caliber move he has at shortstop, his leaping throw to first, early on Saturday. He also got thrown out trying to stretch a single in that game. On Sunday he couldn’t keep his foot on the bag while fielding a bad throw from Giambi during the Mets first rally.
The Mets, particularly Church, played great defense, hit the cut offs and made great plays. They hit, Reyes hit, Wright hit, and they scored 18 runs. They also pitched well, Santana to Wagner on Saturday and Perez went as far as Santana before giving the ball to Smith and Schoeneweis.
More importantly, whether a result of a team meeting or something else, the Mets played with enthusiasm. They played with energy and heart and they really came alive during these two games. Wright was already on the mound encouraging Perez by the time Matsui’s ball went over the fence, everyone was excited when they got hits and scored runs. Maybe the Mets fans’ unwillingness to boo their own players in the hostile environment of Yankee Stadium helped, and maybe the Mets can go and put together a nice streak of games over the next seven so that when they return to Shea, there isn’t a single person we want to boo….besides Hanley Ramirez of course.
Subway Series, and getting going
I haven’t been a proponent of firing Willie Randolph, and I still don’t believe firing him will fix this team. However, at one point something needs to be done, and that’s about all there is to it. These next seven games are important ones though, more important than these last seven.
The Yankees are actually the right team for them to play. They’re an average pitching team with a good offense, which is actually very like the Phillies, and it plays to the strength of the Mets. Their pitching is their strength, which should be enough to shut down the Yankees, and their offense has enough firepower to score plenty of runs against them.
After that a short four game series against the Braves, who if they stay healthy are definitely better than the Phillies. Keeping themselves ahead of the Braves, and beating them in this series, would go a long way to make them, and us, feel good.
If they don’t play well against these teams, then barring suddenly going on a 10 game winning streak or something, it’s probably time to ditch Randolph because whether it’ll help or not, he’s ultimately culpable for the performance.
Watching the last few days, I’ve felt like the Mets have gotten a lot of bad breaks recently, whether it’s great catches, line drives right at people, or pitching to contact that finds holes. I’m confident this team will have good stretches, but depending on when and how that stretch comes, it might not be enough to put them in a positive, relaxed frame of mind for the rest of the season.
Maybe the energy associated with, and they can deny it exists all they want, the Subway Series will actually wake the Mets up. So here are my predictions, as crazy as you may think they are.
(Santana) Game 1: Mets 8, Yankees 1
(Perez) Game 2: Mets 5, Yankees 3
(Maine) Game 3: Mets 6, Yankees 1
Chipper Jones on the BQE
Just finished listening to Ed Randall interviewing Chipper Jones on WFAN. He happened to mention that he was in the car with Smoltz driving to Shea Stadium. Can you imagine driving on the Grand Central and you look over and see those two next to you?
If you haven’t heard, Chipper won’t be playing today because of back spasms, and might miss some of the Nationals series next week too.
Randall brought up the comment Chipper made years ago about Mets fans not needing to be so upset, they can just go put on their Yankees gear now. We all thought he was betraying Boston-type ignorance about the incapability of rooting for both teams, but the way he explained it today, it was more of a jibe than ignorance. He says he made the comment later after seeing one of those idiots behind the dugout who was wearing one of those half-Mets half-Yankees caps and was disgusted by it.
He also said he’s not changing his son Shea’s, name but that he hopes he grows up to be a great ballplayer one day and gets to hit in Citi Field.
So that’s my interesting Larry Jones tidbit for the day.
Opening Day
BASEBALL! It’s begun, and so far Johan Santana appears to be the real thing. After watching the Nationals, and David Wright’s good pal Ryan Zimmerman, hand the Braves their first loss of the season last night it was a good feeling to watch the guys take the field for the first time and come through like they should. And the best part is we get to flip on the television and see them do it again tonight! That’s eight strike-outs for Santana, now lets see how many Pedro gets.
In other news, the biggest story in “Yankee Country” was again not baseball, but weather. The ghost of Babe Ruth is giving them grief, 86 years after he christened the structure with a home run, they’re knocking it down.
For an interesting article I wrote about why Opening Day should be a national holiday to celebrate our national pastime, click here.
Betting on 2008
Pending wagers for the upcoming season.
I like to place a couple of simple wagers every year, and this year is no different.
My first one is the Mets to win the World Series. I made this wager pre-Santana so I have 15-1 odds.
Hanley Ramirez, Under 27.5 Home Runs. I don’t expect Hanley to have as good a year as he had last year, as pitchers will figure him out a bit.
Mariano Rivera, Under 36.5 Saves. 37 is a lot of saves, and I think the Rivera is in decline, plus the Yankees with a shoddy bullpen and inning-limited young pitching are unlikely to give him as many opportunities in years past. I made this bet last year and won.
Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays, Over 75 wins. 76 is a lot of wins, would be a franchise record. I was hoping this number would be lower, but I still think they can do it. I think they’re a better team pitching-wise this year, and the division is worse, if only by a little.
New York Yankees, Under 93.5 wins. From the Yankees perspective I think the division is about the same as last year, Tampa improved, Orioles downgraded, Boston and Toronto remained about the same. I won this bet last year(I think the number was 96) and I would’ve won it with 93.5 last year too. The Yankees didn’t get better, in fact they got worse. (A-Rod and Posada won’t do better, and they didn’t acquire any new talent. Unless the young pitching blows everyone away, they’re in for a tough year)
Philadelphia Phillies, Under 87.5 wins. Did the Phillies get better? I’m not a big fan of Myers anyway, I think Lidge doesn’t give them much of an improvement. Just give the Mets two more wins against them and I’d win this. Philly will probably stick around though May and then fade. They just don’t have any pitching.
New York Mets, over 93.5 wins. Can the Mets fight off their stagger last year, and does Johan add what it takes? I actually think the Mets will annihilate this number, because I think Johan and Pedro will have years that make us drool. I lost this bet last year, when the number was 89.5, which I thought was practically a given.
So there are my bets for this year, I may add others if I see them, I’d love to bet on over strikeouts for Pedro, but I didn’t see one anywhere. Anyone else make any wagers, or think I’m crazy on any of these?
Classless organizations
Enough with A-Rod. I actually like A-Rod while he’s not currently employed by those people, but I’m tired of the crazy rumors and speculation. Would he just sign somewhere already?
As for the Yankees supposedly willing to talk again? It’s such a joke.
They’ve gone back on their word.
They’re staging a one-man boycott of an agent, which will only hurt them in the end. You can’t arbitrarily not deal with players because of who their agent is.
They expending quite a bit of effort and attention on basically keeping together a team that won one postseason game last year. They’re putting an awful lot of faith in those young pitchers, which is the only real area you could expect improvement.
They just barely stopped short of asking A-Rod to crawl back to them, beg for his money, and apologize for opting out. Real classy.
As for the Mets, It’s still a long offseason, but I’m getting antsy for some sort of real move, involving hopefully a bullpen guy or a starting pitcher.
Paul Lo Duca Speaks
Listening to Paul Lo Duca in his week radio interview with Joe and Evan on WFAN gave me a lot of confidence. First off he said there can be no excuses, about injuries or whatever, they’re just not playing well. He mentioned an attitude adjustment, about how maybe they were coasting a little and they’re realizing it’s not going to be as easy as last year. He also brought up how Willie had been talking to them about and it and stressing some stuff trying to get them going. A lot of his statements make me feel like this slump is coming to an end. On a related Paul Lo Duca note, somehow the Mets fans have been lazy, and the Dodger fans have been pushing for their catcher, who I’m not going to deem with a name. You can vote 25 times per email address, so get out there and continue to vote for Paul, who’s fallen out of the lead in the All Star voting.
They asked him if he thought he should be batting second, and about how Reyes needs protection and all that. He basically said it doesn’t really matter, it’s not the order that’s the problem, it’s that they need to start getting hits at the right times. Which is true, were they driving in these guys with two outs and when they’ve got guys on, no one would be debating the line-up that much.
He also addressed Cole Hamels a little bit, who basically was upset over how Lo Duca acted after his home run the other day. This was the third of three consecutive home runs off him, to put the Mets up 3-2. He said he “could give a rats-you know what” about Hamels or his statements. That if he upset him, he’s sorry, but he could care less. It was a big home run while they were struggling, and he got excited. That it’s different than when he got upset at A-Rod for watching his home run when the Yankees were up by a lot and it was mostly meaningless. He knows that he’ll see Hamels again, and if he gets thrown at, he’ll happily take first base.
I’ve been saying it all week, but obviously the Mets are going to get out of this. I think the Yankees will probably falter a bit again by this weekend. I think we can play them tough and do well, especially considering their bullpen sucks and we’re facing Clemens and Clippard. So all you pessimistic ‘woe is me’ Mets fans out there, chill out. Sure this isn’t last year, but don’t forget that we lost last year. This is also not 2003. This is 2007, look forward, not back. Look up, not down.