Sandy Alderson was quoted recently as viewing Johan Santana as a question mark for the rotation to start the season. This comment was a statement on being prudent and building depth, not a dire prediction about Santana’s health. Still, it was misrepresented and reported as a medical update instead of simply an extension of previous comments of Alderson’s suggesting it’s a good idea to have lots of depth in the rotation. Johan Santana has not had a setback, and is on exactly the same path he has been since early October; Opening Day. He’s begun offseason conditioning, but it’s way too early to start throwing a baseball. Certainly there’s a possibility when he starts throwing that his shoulder will struggle to respond the way a pitcher’s needs to, but that’s merely a possibility, not a prediction.
Expecting Santana’s body to respond like Mark Prior’s, or Chien Ming Wang’s, is probably as silly as me expecting my body to respond like David Wright’s when I go to the gym. It’s even possible Santana and his doctors could use Wang and Prior’s experience as guidelines to improve on the rehabilitation process. Santana is a different person, and everyone’s body responds differently. There is a thought out there that because of copy number variation in the human genome, and other in depth biological stuff outside my paygrade, that there is some difference in the way different racial populations across the globe adapted over the last 200,000 years or so. Basically expecting Santana’s body to heal and strengthen like Mark Prior’s may be like expecting your Ford Fusion to break down at the same odometer reading your neighbor’s Focus broke down at.
They estimated Tommy John’s odds of recovery from his procedure at 1%, but nowadays 83% or so of the operations go as planned. Practice makes perfect, so to speak. A lot of that has to do with the regiment and rehab schedules and learning what’s the best way to get the elbow or shoulder into game shape again. This isn’t to say that that Santana is a lock to make even 25 starts next season, or that he’ll be successful if he does so. It simply means that Sandy Alderson is aware of the severity of the surgery Santana had and knows the importance of pitching depth. That’s it.
Know it was an attempt at illustrating the odds but Santana had shoulder surgery. Not TJ. Big difference.
irrelevant to the point really.
Mets fans are correct to be pessimists in all casez
If it is irrelevant to the point you should not be using TJ surgery as a point of comparison. It shows a fundamental lack of the human body and medicine to say “hey almost 45 years ago people thought moving a ligament around was foolish, ergo, eventually people will recover great from this massively damaging type of shoulder problem.”
Optimism is great. Total blind ignorance in the face of facts is pretty sad.
it’s not a point of comparison, it’s an example of how we learn from repeat experiences. I was merely throwing it out there as a suggestion that the Mets and Santana can use previous surgeries to help examine the pitfalls of recovery and find a better path for Santana to take.
What’s the difference between blind “optimism” and lunacy?
“Expecting Santana’s body to respond like Mark Prior’s, or Chien Ming Wang’s, is probably as silly as me expecting my body to respond like David Wright’s when I go to the gym. It’s even possible Santana and his doctors could use Wang and Prior’s experience as guidelines to improve on the rehabilitation process.”
So I guess doctors should throw out thousands of years of trial and error and treat each patient as though they were the first of their kind.
“How do you treat a cold? I have no idea, lets bleed him with leeches.”
I mean c’mon man! The fact that other pitchers have struggled to return from similar injuries is telling, and to ignore it would be height of stupidity.
Lastly, the fact that Sandy mentioned it more likely than not means that there is some smoke and he is trying to manage expectations.
You can’t have smoke if you haven’t started the fire yet. Pitchers don’t get ready for Spring Training in December.
You are responding to the exact opposite point I’m making.
There is not thousands of years of trial and error dealing with capsule repair. Prior and Wang would be the ‘leeches’ comparison here, and perhaps Santana has learned that it’s not a good idea. That puts him and the Mets with a leg up. I’m suggesting that the trial and error with them may help Santana.
My wife and I caught a cold last week. I got over it in two days, she’s still sick. Our bodies clearly responded differently. It’s the same with with surgery and rehab. Just because Wang took 2 years, doesn’t mean Santana will.
Or Sandy mentioned it b/c he knows something about Santana right now that we don’t know.
Bottom line is we probably won’t know anything until pitchers and catchers report. Not unless tidbits are leaked that Santana is currently experiencing pain or something similar to that.
I’ll agree that everyone’s body reacts different to same-like procedures. Hard to gauge this one though b/c there’s just not that many cases on MLB pitchers with like surgeries to go on.
Bottom line is until he starts pitching, he remains a question mark.