Clearly Barry Zito’s ERA is a factor of small sample size. (sing it everybody!)
He’s coming into tonight’s game with a 1.125 ERA having given up only two runs over 16 innings. This is unsustainable, as I suspect the Mets will demonstrate.
If the Mets score 6 runs in 5.1 or less it would triple Zito’s 1.125 ERA.
If they only score five they’d have to do it in 2.1 innings to triple it.
4 runs in 8 or less innings would double it.
If they only score 3, they’d have to chase him in 4 innings to double his ERA.
For his ERA to dip under 1, he only needs 2.1 scoreless innings, but if the Mets score once he’d need to go 11.