Quick and Easy Guide to Mets Spring Training

Spring Training Drills, March 18th, 2011 by CeetarThis isn’t a guide to every last detail of Port St. Lucie, but I’d like to share my observations about watching the Mets down there.  Tonight is the first televised broadcast, and also the first audio broadcast.

 

The most interesting part, in my opinion, is the morning workouts.  These occur pretty much every day, even on non-game days, on the fields behind Digital Domain Park.  You’ll see the entire camp full of players out there, except ones that may be playing in an away game, doing workouts and drills.  Minor and major leaguers in all shades of Mets uniforms wearing all sorts of different numbers.  You’ll see guys you’ve never heard of, even if you pay pretty close attention to the minor leagues.  They’ll do all sorts of interesting drills and you’ll see the coaches and managers barking orders and instructions.  You’ll get an inside look at how players prepare for games and seasons.  You’ll see them practice learning the signs and just doing baseball things.  Sometimes the minor leaguers will start playing a game near the end of the session, this is normally the time the regular players retreat to Digital Domain Park to prepare for the regular game.  Usually you’ll be asked to leave, but sometimes you can catch an inning or two.

 

You can get autographs if you’re persistent, but during workouts these guys are mostly working so you’ll have to be quick and paying attention to who may have a moment.  They’ll have to walk by you to get from field to field, and often this is when they’ll sign.  Another good time to get autographs is after games, particularly if it’s an away game and the players are headed back to a bus or their cars if it’s close. When the Mets travel to nearby Jupiter to play the Cardinals or the Marlins, many players drive.  Many people looking for autographs wait in the walkway between the players’ exit and their parking lot.  This is also a good way to get a look at what cars players drive.  Autographs are there to be had, so if that’s your thing you should have no problem.  Normal rules apply; if you’re a cute girl or a kid you’ve got the best shot.

 

Spring Training tickets are often not expensive, and it’s a chance to get seats that are really close that would be virtually impossible to get at a Major League park.  The atmosphere is so much more relaxed and casual and it’s a fun time all around.  Both years I went I sat first row in front of the Mets bullpen, literally within touching distance of all the pitchers as they warmed up to go in.  Close enough that they can here what you’re saying to the people you’re with.    There are season ticket holders in Florida, but there are still seats available mere rows behind home plate too. And it’s roughly 10% of the cost of a Major League stadium.

 

Another fun activity that’s probably more common in places like Port St. Lucie than Tampa Bay is player-spotting out on the town.  Most people know about Duffy’s, a chain restaurant with a bowling alley attached down the road from the Spring Training Complex.  SNY films some segments there, and it’s a common place for players to hang out too.    The Mets do bowling nights on Sunday evenings, so if you want to watch baseball players playing a different sport that’s the perfect time.  Port St. Lucie is not a tiny place, but it’s not a city so there are only a limited amount of places to go for a nightlife experience.   Another good place is Vine and Barley which is a wine and beer bar down the road.  The last time I was down there I ran into Scott Hairston, Justin Turner, and Kai Gronauer, and I’m pretty sure there were one or two players down there I didn’t recognize.  Even on a non-baseball front I suggest this place, as it’s got self-serve wine tastings and an excellent beer menu.

 

The worst part of Spring Training is when you return home.  You’re so ready for baseball that it feels wrong that there are no longer games you can attend.   Still, it’s great time and a must-do for baseball fans.  It’s baseball and warm weather and a great way to start to get excited about the new season.  If you’re headed down this year, have a great time and tweet lots of pictures!

The Best Offense In The NL East

The Mostly Mets Podcast discussed offense in the National League East in episode 33.   The Mets scored the most runs in the division last year, and Toby, Patrick and Ted agreed that they’d probably lead again this year, although the Marlins have gotten real close.

 

Speaking in terms of runs scored the Mets scored 718, the Phillies 713, NL Average was 668, Braves had 641, Florida 625, and the Nationals 624.   The Phillies offense is heavily influenced by the park they play in, and without Ryan Howard indefinitely plus another year of age for Rollins and Utley it doesn’t seem like the Phillies will score as many in 2012.  Can the addition (And subtraction) of Jose Reyes account for 92 runs of difference between the two teams?   The Marlins offense is heavily lopsided with Reyes, Hanley Ramirez and Mike Stanton making up most of it.

 

The Mets drop off from Beltran to Duda shouldn’t be too great, and Andres Torres can probably give the Mets what Angel Pagan gave them last year.  Replacing Jose Reyes’ production is a little tougher.  Luckily most of his at bats will be made up with more at bats from Ike Davis and a little more Ruben Tejada.  David Wright will get more at bats as well, and all of them with a healthy back.  This will all keep the offense churning, even if Jason Bay exhibits no signs of life.

 

If I had to pinpoint one player to worry about, it’d be Tejada.  He’s still young though, so there’s still plenty of hope he’ll improve.  Last year’s OBP was partially BABIP/AVG fueled, but he did improve on his strikeout and walk rate.  Keep improving there and even if he gets lucky he’ll still maintain a very helpful rate at getting on base.

 

One other factor to consider that makes the Mets clear-cut favorites: power.  The Mets got on base more than anyone else in the National League except the Cardinals, but they had league average slugging.  This translates to a lot of runners stranded that otherwise would’ve been runs.  In 2012 the Mets will have more power.  Duda is already impressing people with his power this spring, and Davis will join him to tattoo the Pepsi Porch all year long. Add a healthier Wright and even a 20% bounce back from Jason Bay towards his career norms and the Mets will be a very dangerous threat.  This is all without even mentioning the walls.  The Marlins addition of Jose Reyes will likely raise their on base percentage, but not enough to make up the difference.

 

I’m confident the Mets will have the best offense in the National League East this season.  It’s one step towards a successful season, and it’s also a step that isn’t going anywhere.  The Mets offense is controlled through 2013 at least, with prospects prepared to fill in at some of the weaker positions soon.  The Mets offense is great and will stay that way.

Some Thoughts on Dynamic Pricing

The Mets now have their dynamic pricing guide online on Mets.com.  Tickets first went on sale to certain presale codes Monday.  I got Opening Day tickets at face value, but just three hours later they were $10 higher.  Btw, at 10am today the Mets blogger presale  begins.  More details here.

This ultimately sucks, although it won’t quite hurt the true fans.  Dynamic pricing does not change the prices of packs and plans.  If you want a particular promotion or banner day, you have an incentive to buy ahead beyond just getting better seats.  As more fans get exciting about specific events, the price will go up.  This will have a fairly catastrophic effect on suddenly popular games.  Clinchers, Dickey’s first home game after his no-hitter, and late season divisional matchups during pennant races can suddenly become very expensive.  Staying ahead of the hype will save you money.

 

On the flip side, it’s unlikely tickets will plummet that far for unwanted games.  The Mets set up an artificial floor so that a fan will never pay less than a season ticket holder paid for that section.  Reading between the lines to me means that it’ll never be less than the 10% discount they get.  Prices are fairly reasonable for value games as they are, but it’d be nice if the more expensive games become affordable if the Mets are eliminated early or if the weather is supposed to be really bad.

 

Another interesting use for dynamic pricing is tracking the popularity of games.  It can give us insight into tickets sold that previously only the Mets knew.  If you want to know how Banner Day is doing for example, you can check out the prices for that game against a similarly valued game and see if it’s inherently more popular or not.  As we get a feel for it, we’ll probably be able to tell how close it is to sold out, even within specific sections.

 

I’ll also be curious to see how the secondary market reacts.  Sites like Stub Hub and Seat Crew that deal in second-hand tickets may not be able to keep up with the fluctuations.  If a game suddenly takes off in popularity, it will take a while for people to unlist and relist their tickets.  If ticket prices drop, the secondary market will suddenly be overpriced.  This may also kill day of game sales.  If fans really want to go to a game, chances are the prices will increase past the secondary market…unless it’s raining.

Waiting On Line (Not Online) For Mets Tickets

Mets keychain handed out on the line for buying tickets before the 2000 seasonIt was winter 2000 and New York was in the middle of a freezing cold stretch of weather.  Wind chill estimates had the temperatures at subzero on the day that the Mets started selling tickets.  This was before you could buy them online, and me and a couple of friends decided to camp out at Shea Stadium to buy tickets for the 2000 season.

 

We bundled up with blankets and layers and thermoses of coffee and hot chocolate and drove to Shea Stadium.  We made record time since it was the middle of the night, parked, and got on line.  We were by no means first; there were dozens of people already there, maybe as many as 200.  It was frigid and we were basically standing around shivering with hundreds of dollars in our pockets because you had to pay cash.  The warmest part was when you got to move a little bit to use the bathroom.

 

Handed out on the ticket line before the 2000 season

Eventually they moved most of the line inside.  It cut down on the wind a little bit, but it wasn’t any warmer.  As it got closer to the time tickets were actually on sale a couple of players, and manager Bobby Valentine, came out and were shaking frozen hands and signing autographs as the line started to move.   Someone, presumably with WFAN, was handing out the keychains in the picture here.  Eventually we were able to purchase our tickets, which included tickets to the epic 8th inning comeback against the Braves on Fireworks Night, climbed back into the car, blasted the heat and drove back home and fell asleep.

 

Nowadays online ticket sales have done away with this camping out, which is definitely a good thing for those of us that aren’t 17 anymore with free time to wait outside a baseball stadium for hours, but there’s a certain nostalgic machismo to having braved the elements to root for your team.

Regular Season Ticket Pre-Sale

A special pre-sale for blog readers starts Wednesday at 10am.  Follow this link and use the code HODGES to purchase tickets to any regular season Mets game.  Obviously Opening Day and the Subway Series are the ones guaranteed to sell out, but you might want to get a jump on other games as well.  You never know what supply and demand will dictate closer to the day of a game, especially with the new flex pricing.

 

My suggestions are to buy for Banner Day and the bobblehead (Edgardo Alfonzo) of your choice.  June 3rd is the Mets Hall of Fame induction for John Franco.  Complete promotional information found here.

Will The Mets Be Better Than 2011?

Optimism starts small; will the Mets improve on 2011’s record?  Are they a better team?  Will they perform better?

 

I’m leaning towards yes.   Losing Reyes, Pagan and Beltran is a big hit, but the Mets offense is still pretty strong.  Lucas Duda looks like a solid player.  Andres Torres may not be great, but even if he’s not good the Mets have high hopes for Kirk Nieuwenhuis coming up pretty quickly.  David Wright and Ike Davis are healthy, and Daniel Murphy should get some more playing time as well.  Josh Thole and Ruben Tejada may not be the best, but they’re pretty good at not making out and keeping the line moving.  This team won’t have problems scoring runs.

 

The bullpen is clearly slated to be better.  Francisco Rodriguez will not be here, but the Mets added Frank FranciscoRamon Ramirez, and Jon Rauch.  Some injury concerns, but the bullpen has some pretty good depth.

 

The starters are where the big questions come in.  The Mets lost Chris Capuano, who did a pretty good job for them.  Good job aside, his eminently replaceable 1.7 rWAR is not going to handicap them much.  Johan Santana is slated to take that spot, provided he does not have a setback during Spring Training.  Despite this serious possibility I have faith Santana can at least approach the 1.7 rWAR Capuano gave the Mets.  Even if he’s somewhat diminished, he’s a smart competitor that should be able to get by with somewhat reduced ability.    With luck bouncing a little more in Pelfrey’s favor this season, and Jon Niese’s peripherals leading to a better ERA, it’s possible the Mets starters will be better too.  It probably hinges most on health, but that’s an argument and concern for every team.

 

So there’s a very high-level argument for the Mets being better.  We can worry about how much better another time, particularly as it pertains to the other NL East teams and their records.  Specifically, it’ll be decided on the field with the games being played, not on a blog or newspaper somewhere before the season even starts.

 

Spring Training Is Finally Here

It’s arrived. The day we’ve been counting down towards since the Mets walked off the field last fall.  Pitchers and catchers are reporting to Port St. Lucie Florida to Digital Domain Park to being preparing to play baseball.

 

It’s a time of new beginnings and fresh starts.  The Mets begin 2012 with no players injured and everyone preparing together.  Terry Collins and Sandy Alderson now have a year of familiarity with the team and the organization and a better sense of what they’re capable of.  There are new faces and old ones.  Someone here is going to surprise us and have a breakout season.   There are going to be long majestic home runs arcing into the sky, diving catches on sinking liners, and curveballs making batters look funny and strike out.  Everything you love about baseball starts happening now, as the Mets start to get ready to play some exhibition games in two weeks.

 

Soon (March 5th, 6pm) the voices of Howie Rose and newly acquired Josh Lewin will drift out over the airwaves, talking about Mets this, and Mets that.  The Mets Extra jingle will play and we’ll hear Mets talk and interviews and daily sound bytes from Terry Collins. What could be better?  It’s baseball!

 

What to expect from Optimistic Mets Fan this year?  Think of these as my New Year’s Resolutions, because the baseball New Year starts now.

 

For one, I’ve got a couple of ticket giveaways planned.  That should be fun, but I should warn you: I’m probably going to request optimism from you to be eligible.

I plan to work on getting a working database on my own computer so I can tweet and post random stats that amuse me, as well as delve further into the understanding of baseball as a whole.

I also plan to interface with other bloggers better.  Whether this is linking them more, guest-writing, or talking on the various radio/podcast type shows out there only time will tell.

And I will continue to blog about beer as it pertains to baseball.  I’ll specifically update the Citi Field Beer List, as well as talk about what’s going on in other parks.  If you’re a beer fan of a non-NY baseball team and feel like helping me out, drop me an email.

Pondering The Delay in the 2013 All-Star Game Announcement

This post is dedicated to the memory of Gary Carter, a true Mets All-Star.

Wright touches home after homering in the 2006 All-Star GameMets Police has been pondering why there has been no official announcement of where the 2013 MLB All-Star Game will be played.  Unofficially it’s going to be at Citi Field, but that news is been pending for a long time now, and it’s past the time we usually have these things announced.

 

I had speculated that it was related to first Bud Selig’s pending renewal of his term as commissioner, and then not wanting to announce things during the Giants Super Bowl run.  Now it’s almost Spring Training and we’ve heard nothing.

 

But something else is happening in 2013: interleague play and realignment.   This will probably add more interleague games, and all year long.  Perhaps Major League Baseball is considering changing the All-Star Game from an AL versus NL to something akin to the NHL with captains picking teams.  Or perhaps they’ll go with something they did for the Home Run Derby a couple of years ago; teams based on country of origin.  Coincidentally 2013 will also be the third edition of the World Baseball Classic, so the game will already be in an international mode.

 

I have no idea why something like that would need to delay the announcement though.  Maybe they just want to have more details about it when they do eventually let us know.

Baseball Is A Collection of Sprints, Not a Marathon

Baseball statistics have come a long way.  We have a ton of information at our fingertips and are able to perform some pretty awesome analysis of baseball players.  This includes things like projections, trying to figure out which pitchers were victims of bad luck and fielding, and which hitters are having some unsustainable success.   However, baseball is an elaborate game.  You can do all this work, analyze all these players, and have a pretty good idea of what should happen over a large sample of data and still have completely no idea what’s going to happen in any given moment.  The cliche is that baseball is a marathon and not a sprint, but truthfully it’s probably like a whole bunch of sprints crammed together.  You can make some pretty good educated guesses about who’s going to win the marathon, but each individual sprint is pretty much a crap shoot.

 

Ultimately everyone wants to see their team win the marathon, but most of the enjoyment comes from watching them win some of those individual sprints.  A thrilling pitching matchup or a walk-off home run can be as exciting in 2012 as it was in 2006, or 1986.  This is sort of the baseball opposite of missing the forest for the trees.  We can get so focused on which teams are the best in a division or which individual players are the best that we miss that sometimes things happen in the individual games and matchups that are awesome and fun to watch.  It doesn’t matter that Andres Torres may not be a very good major leaguer; he can still go 3-4 in one game with two home runs.  Mike Pelfrey’s barely an above average pitcher, but he’s capable of pitching a complete game with 3 hits.  This is especially true in April and May when you’ve just gotten into the forest and trying to figure out what the whole place looks like is just silly; relax and look at the trees!

 

Even the 1962 Mets played some thrilling games.  That’s the beauty of baseball.  Maybe Santana comes back rejuvenated and strikes out every batter he faces on the way to a Mets playoff berth.  Maybe adjusting the walls make no difference and the Mets struggle to hit for power.  Either way I promise you there will be fun Mets baseball this summer.  At least 162 magical opportunities to see something you haven’t seen before.   Who knows, maybe this is the year the Mets finally pitch that illusive no-hitter.  Would you want to miss it because you have the Mets penciled in for last place and decided to spend your Saturday afternoon in June at the zoo?

 

 

Mets: Bucking the Narrative since 2000

Beat writers and columnists covering a team often look for compelling stories to talk about over a long season.  Bloggers and fans do this as well, although to a lesser extent and they’re less likely to look for off the field drama to drive a narrative. I’ve always been fascinated by some of the parallels and story lines you can draw from baseball. However it seems like lately every great story set-up the Mets stumble into fails to produce fruit.

 

In 1999 the storyline was that no one in the NL East, specifically the Mets, could beat the Braves.  The Mets fell behind and ultimately needed a game 163 just to make the playoffs.  When they met the Braves in the NLCS, the storyline was affirmed as the Mets fell to the Braves in six games.  The season ended on a Kenny Rogers based-loaded walk, reaffirming what Yankees fans already knew about him; that he couldn’t win in New York.

 

The 2000 season featured the Roger Clemens bean-ball incident, where Clemens hit Mike Piazza in the head and Piazza, and most fans, clearly felt was intentional.  The two teams met in the World Series, with Clemens starting game two on the mound for the Yankees.  It was the perfect setup for Piazza to get his revenge and carry the Mets to a championship over Clemens and the Yankees.  Instead, Clemens flung a shard of broken bat at Piazza and the Mets lost the game and the series.

 

The end of the 2001 season found the Mets in the center of the 9/11 tragedy.   Piazza’s home run in the first game back in New York could’ve been a catalyst to lead the Mets back into the playoff race and a third consecutive trip to the playoffs.  Instead they won the game but fell out of the race soon after.

 

In 2006 the Mets had the best record on the majors and went up against a barely above .500 Cardinals team in the NLCS, but there was no magical storyline.  Carlos Beltran absolutely destroyed them, again, in a losing effort.  Cliff Floyd pinch hit in what could’ve been a Kirk Gibson moment with him barely being able to run but at bat as the winning run. This was after the amazing Endy Chavez catch over the wall to rob Rolen and double-up Edmonds game.  That play could’ve gone on to be one of the most amazing moments in postseason history had it led to a victory.  Chavez had a chance to break open the game himself in the bottom of that same inning, and failed to do so.  No magical endings to this one.

 

2007, and 2008, were the real start of the negative narratives.  The talk was about collapses, devastation, and injury. Shea Stadium didn’t end with a bang, in fact that failed Endy Chavez game was the last one ever played in the park.  Citi Field didn’t open with a bang either.  Injuries piled up and the Mets crumbled under all the mess, both on the field and off.

 

So what’s the story for 2012?  What’s the magical journey for the Mets?  The one I’m hoping for is the New York Giants parallel.  A team given no chance to beat Philly that’s dealt with a lot of injuries despite actually having some talent.