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How The Jets Offseason Will Go

The media, and some fans, will get on Rex Ryan for talking too much and claim they cannot believe a word he says anymore.  Rex Ryan will continue to say crazy things.  The media, and some fans, will take what he says as big news worth talking about while un-sarcastically talking about whether or not they should be talking what Rex says.  (ESPN Radio’s Ryan Ruocco and Robin Lundberg are pros at this sort of double talk)

 

A scapegoat will be picked.  Santonio Holmes and Mark Sanchez appear to be the popular picks right now.   Every possible free agent at either of those positions will spark posts about how they can’t win with the player they have now, and need to make a push for this new guy.

 

A strategy will be touted as what the Jets need to do more, or less, of and favorite players and coaches that eschew the 2011 Jets perceived bad habits will be trumpeted around as guys the Jets have to sign.

 

We’ve seen it all before with the way the Mets are treated lately.  The Jets will try to fan the flames some, but at the end of the day they’ll do what they feel they need to do to get better, regardless of what the fans or media think they desperately need.

 

One crazy trade that intrigues me as a Giants fan is Peyton Manning to the Jets.  I think the two brothers playing in the same city and the same stadium would be an interesting sidebar to next season.

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2012: Can It Get Worse?

The 2012 Mets team is so devoid of any expectation that it’s almost a lock that we’ll be pleasantly surprised.

 

The way things have gone, it’s easy to forget that the Mets actually have a lot of talent on the roster.

 

With Ike Davis, David Wright and Daniel Murphy leading the way, the Mets offense should do pretty well.  Lucas Duda looks like a real good player.  Josh Thole and Ruben Tejada haven’t lit anything on fire, but they’re both still pretty young and have some value.

 

The Mets redid the bullpen with some talented and reliable arms.  They’ve got some guys returning that did a good job, and should be much improved there.

 

The starting pitching is obviously where one sees the biggest holes, but it’s probably not quite that dire.  Mike Pelfrey and Dillon Gee will probably never be stars, but they both have shown they can be inning eaters or pitch that occasional gem.  Jon Niese has dealt with some injuries, but he’s a high strikeout guy still learning and growing.  R.A. Dickey is a very good pitcher and has proved he’s no one-hit wonder.   The big question mark is obviously Johan Santana and if he’ll experience any setbacks or injuries during the year.

 

There’s more talent on this team than people seem to be talking about right now.   Some of it may it may be suspect, and some may end up injured, but it’s unlikely it all will and it’s also possible some of the younger players take unforeseen strides forward.  They may not win 95 games, but they’re not the 60-70 wins, lock for last place team that they’re being portrayed as.   Sometimes you have to push aside some of the doom and gloom and take a closer look.

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What About Howie….and Kevin?

What about Kevin Burkhardt as Wayne Hagin’s replacement?  Assuming he’s even interested in switching back to radio.  I’m not sure if switching from SNY to WFAN is considered a step up, even getting to call the games.

 

He’s familiar with calling Mets games, as he does a couple of games on SNY in Spring Training.  He’s doing Dallas Cowboys games on the radio this season, so he’s familiar with the medium and the need to describe the action.  I’ve thought he’s done a good job in the spring, although I haven’t heard him on the radio.

 

Presumably SNY had to give him permission for the Cowboys job, given that it overlapped a couple of Mets games.  Could it be that they were giving him a trial, on someone else’s dime, to see how he’d do on radio?  He’s been around for a while and he knows the team and it’s history.  He’s actually been here longer than everyone in the dugout sans David Wright.

 

I’m just theorizing here; I don’t even know if he’s being considered or wants the job.  Still, I think you could do a lot worse and Mets fans would certainly take to him better than Wayne Hagin.  Of course, Toby Hyde would be a good choice as well.

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Ceetar’s Origins, Mostly Mets Podcast, and The Mazzilli’s

Lately the origins of my e-identity has come up a couple of times.  Most recently Metspolice.com awarded me a Mazzilli award for “Most Optimistic” (I think the fix is in there), and Google Images suggested he use a picture of a Cheetah.

 
Last week’s Mostly Mets Podcast, perhaps the final one of the year, answered one of my Twitter questions involving Kirk Nieuwenhuis’s potential promotion.  I asked when he’d be up here to take Andres Torres’ job.  Toby Hyde said July first, Ted Berg said sometime in June, and Patrick Flood twisted it a bit and suggested he’d take Jason Bay’s job instead.  When Patrick read my question he mispronounced Ceetar as “Key-tar” instead of “Cee-tar”.  Ted, the one of the trio I’ve met, corrected him but forgot the origin of the name.

 
So here it is:  I was looking to name a character in an online MUD, which is basically a text-based pre-World of Warcraft style game played over telnet. (This was like 1997)  I came up with Ceetar.  My character ultimately became a demon-worshipping evil priest type character wielding dark magic and a spear to kill monsters and good guys.  It became my online identity and as I began signing up for accounts and emails and websites, I started using it as my user name.  So that’s the pretty nerdy origins of the name.

 
As time as gone on, the idea of creating a more ‘professional’ handle has come up, but I ultimately pass on it.  I’m not trying to hide or be anonymous, and I don’t think using Ceetar does that either.  Almost everything I’ve done on the Internet about the Mets has been done as Ceetar.  To use my real name would actually obscure some of that, and the name is hardly hidden.

 
Back on the topic of the Mostly Mets Podcast, which deserves it’s own review post one of these days, I think I’m setting a New Years Resolution to meet either Toby or Patrick (but not both) so that I can say I’ve Met Most of the Mostly Mets Members. Try saying that five times fast.

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The Difference Between Prudence and Pessimism

Sandy Alderson was quoted recently as viewing Johan Santana as a question mark for the rotation to start the season.  This comment was a statement on being prudent and building depth, not a dire prediction about Santana’s health.  Still, it was misrepresented and reported as a medical update instead of simply an extension of previous comments of Alderson’s suggesting it’s a good idea to have lots of depth in the rotation.   Johan Santana has not had a setback, and is on exactly the same path he has been since early October; Opening Day.  He’s begun offseason conditioning, but it’s way too early to start throwing a baseball.  Certainly there’s a possibility when he starts throwing that his shoulder will struggle to respond the way a pitcher’s needs to, but that’s merely a possibility, not a prediction.

Expecting Santana’s body to respond like Mark Prior’s, or Chien Ming Wang’s, is probably as silly as me expecting my body to respond like David Wright’s when I go to the gym. It’s even possible Santana and his doctors could use Wang and Prior’s experience as guidelines to improve on the rehabilitation process.  Santana is a different person, and everyone’s body responds differently.  There is a thought out there that because of copy number variation in the human genome, and other in depth biological stuff outside my paygrade, that there is some difference in the way different racial populations across the globe adapted over the last 200,000 years or so.  Basically expecting Santana’s body to heal and strengthen like Mark Prior’s may be like expecting your Ford Fusion to break down at the same odometer reading your neighbor’s Focus broke down at.

They estimated Tommy John’s odds of recovery from his procedure at 1%, but nowadays 83% or so of the operations go as planned.  Practice makes perfect, so to speak.  A lot of that has to do with the regiment and rehab schedules and learning what’s the best way to get the elbow or shoulder into game shape again.  This isn’t to say that that Santana is a lock to make even 25 starts next season, or that he’ll be successful if he does so.   It simply means that Sandy Alderson is aware of the severity of the surgery Santana had and knows the importance of pitching depth.  That’s it.

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Don’t Tell Me How to Feel, How to React

Coincidentially Dec 5th is the day the 21st amendment was ratified, re-legalizing the consumption of alcohol.

 

Don’t tell me the Seaver trade was worse.  We shouldn’t be arguing which Mets disappointment was worse instead of debating batting titles and MVPs.  I feel how I feel, and you feel how you feel.  This is the single worse day I’ve experienced as a Mets fan.

 

Don’t tell me about the contract, or that you know how it’s going to turn out.  No one knows that, and there aren’t probability charts for injuries.  Everyone is different.   Can you really go from hoping that ball finds the gap so Reyes gets a triple, to hoping he pulls a hamstring or isn’t worth it in a couple of years?  Would you really have been upset of the Mets ‘overpaid’, which is something that only happens in retrospect, to keep a player like Jose Reyes on the team?  Does anyone seriously root for a long-term fiscally responsible plan when they go to baseball games?  I don’t.  I just wanted to see Jose Reyes and my Mets.   Add in that Carlos Beltran is also gone, and Johan Santana may never be the same, and it’s hard to swallow.

 

Also, don’t tell me I’m “Less of a fan” for being less interested in the Mets without Reyes.  There is no rulebook to fandom.  The truth is most of you are also less interested in the Mets, just unwilling to admit it.  Less people will go to games, less people will buy jerseys.  The team being likely worse only further plays into that.  Jose Reyes was one small part of the big picture, but without his portion I find myself noticing the other pictures, other places to spend my money, in the building.  I’ll never not be a Mets fan, nor will I ever stop rooting for them, but that doesn’t mean I’ll devote the same level of energy and commitment that I have in the past.

 

To sum it up in a way that to me seems to represent baseball pretty well:  I’m less excited about the Mets and less confident they’ll be successful in the near future than I was following Beltran striking out against the Cardinals to end the ’06 season.

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1987 New York Mets Signed Team Baseball

Here are some pictures of a baseball I came into possession of.  When you find a signed baseball from the 1980s, you pretty much always expect it to be the ’86 World Series team, especially when the first two names that jump out at you are Rafael Santana and Wally Backman.

But then I saw Kevin McReynolds who didn’t arrive until 1987.  Santana departed after the 1987 season, so that was the only year they played together and therefore the only year the ball can be from.  So there it is, a New York Mets team signed baseball from 1987.

And yes, this baseball was apparently purchased at Sea World.

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2011 Mets Statistics You Probably Haven’t Heard

Dillon Gee led all National League rookies with 13 wins.  Vance Worley was 2nd with 11.

 

Lucas Duda had the highest OBP and SLG among qualifying rookies. (.370 and .482)

 

Justin Turner was second, 30 to 32, in doubles for NL rookies.

 

Both Jose Reyes and Angel Pagan were in the top ten for hardest to double up.  Jose Reyes was the hardest man to strike out in the National League. (14.3 AB between strikeouts.  That’s like twice a week)

 

Jason Bay was tied, with 2, for the most Grand Slams in the NL.

 

The Mets were second, .264, in AVG in the NL, and second in OBP, .335.

 

They left 59 more players on base, 1257, than the Marlins who had the second most at 1198.  Mets opponents left 1230 on base.

 

7 of David Wright‘s 14 home runs were go-ahead home runs.

 

The Mets were 9-4 on Saturdays at home, 2-11 on Saturdays on the road.

 

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The Sporting News Sportrax

Check out this advertisement in the back of the 1993 yearbook for The Sporting News Baseball.  It’s basically a watered down version of your favorite sports app on your smartphone these days.   Still pretty cool for 1993 though; sports scores and updates beamed directly to your device?    Anyone out there that actually had one of these?

 

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Realignment: Home Field, Tie-Breakers, More Interleague, Bench

The news this week is that the Astros sale is final and they’ve agreed to move to the AL West for 2013.  This means the schedule will consist of 30 interleague games, all season long, as well as the 72 against your own division, and another 60 against the rest of your league.    I happen to like it, besides the keeping the DH thing that gives the AL an unfair advantage.  A 2nd wild card berth will also be added with a one-game sudden death playoff for the true Wild Card spot.

 

These changes were made to even up the leagues as well as put the emphasis on winning the division.   Winning the division guarantees you’ll make the Division Series, although doesn’t give you any additional benefit _in_ any of the series besides home field over the Wild Card.  I’d actually like to see that eliminated now, and just go with best record.   If a 94 win wild card team already has to dispatch with a lesser team in a sudden death match, let them have the home field after that if they’re playing an 88 win division winner.

 

For those of you that still think the balanced schedule is important, this new format would include that for the divisional race, although not the wild card race.  Each division would play the same set of interleague teams.   What I’d be curious about is the tie-breakers.  Previously if two teams were tied for the division and wild card, but both would make the playoffs, the team with the better record is awarded the division.   While I think there is merit to keeping the same format, emphasizing that you need to beat the teams in your division to actually win it, I could see where it’s a tough pill to swallow to technically have the best record in the division and have to play a sudden death game.

 

This format has the potential to create a lot of heartbreak.  Especially the first couple of years as teams leading in the Wild Card are used to coasting and preparing for the playoffs.  To then potentially go home one day after the season ends is going to feel much like we felt as Mets fans in 2007 and 2008, or Reds fans felt in 1999.  I suspect the winning team will treat the game as pretty much an extension of the regular season, not getting overly excited about winning that ‘first round’ game.

 

Many will dislike the extra interleague, but I’ve got no more desire to see another series against the Dodgers than the Angels.  Roster construction in the National League may take on a different form.  With interleague play scattered throughout the season, and more of it, NL teams may feel the need to carry more of a DH type player on the bench.   None of this is official yet of course, but it looks like it’s pretty close to accurate and finalized.  It’ll be interesting to see how it shakes out, but I think it could be fun.