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Jose Reyes and the Gold Glove

Jose Reyes has really played some terrific defense this year.  He’s showed great range, often diving to his left or right to grab balls that seem destined for the outfield.  Often he’s even able to then pop-up and throw the guy out at first with his great arm.  He has made 15 errors, but errors rarely tell the whole story.

The problem with him being awarded a Gold Glove, or a Silver Slugger, is that he hasn’t played the full season.  He’s projected to end the season with right around 125 games or so.  That’s about 77 percent of the season, which isn’t horrible, but there are shortstops that have played more than that and have played good defense.  Of course Troy Tulowitzki played in only 122 games last year, made 10 errors, and won the Gold Glove.  You never know exactly what voters are looking for, and how they judge all 16 or so shortstops without easily being able to watch every game each one of them plays.

 

Tulowitzki will probably win both the Silver Slugger and the Gold Glove award for NL shortstops, but Jose Reyes has certainly played defense worthy of the award.   Perhaps if he had stayed on the field for the whole season, he would’ve had a better case for the Silver Slugger, but as it is Tulowitzki has a 60 point lead in OPS, mostly in SLG, and has played nearly every game of the season.   One day Jose Reyes will win a Gold Glove, because he does deserve one.

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Mets Meet And Greet With Tuesday’s Children

I was in the park early Thursday to watch the Mets have a meet and greet with some of the families affected by 9/11 via the Tuesday’s Children charity.  A bunch of the Mets players came in to sign and chat and take pictures with the kids.  (This was the 5th time the Mets have done it this year)  Here’s a couple of pictures of Nick Evans, Mike Nickeas, Lucas Duda, R.A. Dickey, Chris Capuano, and Bobby Parnell.

Additionally, I’ve recently agreed to help out with a post or two over at Metspolice.com.  So hop over there from time to time and see what’s up.    There will probably be a post or two from last night’s game.

 

 

More after the jump, to save on load time.

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Does The Mets Organization Only Have Five Starting Pitchers?

With the exception of Chris Young, who was quickly replaced by Dillon Gee, the Mets starting pitchers have stayed healthy all season and not missed a start. (In fact, they’re the only ones to not miss time)  Now that Niese will need to miss a start or two, and doubleheaders galore will force the Mets to use some more pitchers, where are they?

 

Rosters expand on Thursday, the first day they’ll need another pitcher, and yet first we’re going to see 40 year old Miguel Batista, and then R.A. Dickey is going to come back on short rest to pitch Friday.  No Chris Schwinden, no Mark Cohoon.   I know there aren’t a ton of healthy starting pitching prospects in the higher portions of the minor leagues, but why do we have to be subjected to fodder like Batista?

 

On the other hand, I’ll be in the ballpark Thursday to see Batista’s first, and perhaps last, Mets start on what’s his 11th team.  He’s actually going for his 100th win and 1200th strikeout, which I guess is something.

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The Math: Optimism For .500

The Mets struggled a bit and saw their good season start to crumble as they lost game after game to fall well below the .500 mark.  Now they’ve picked it up again, it’s worth taking a look to see what they need to do to finish at 81-81.

 

There are thirty games left.  The Mets are 64-68, and need to go 17-13 the rest of the way to hit .500.

 

There are good reasons to expect that the Mets can do just that.  One is that Jose Reyes is back.  Having him in the lineup at the expense of either Tejada or Turner will make a big difference, especially once he’s got a game or two under his belt to get warmed up.  It’s not just Reyes; Duda has been hitting the ball well and making a case for 2012.  Nick Evans has put together a nice little stretch here.  They haven’t been scoring a ton of runs, but they’re getting the job done and most everyone is contributing.

 

Another is that rosters expand on Thursday.  If you look closely at this season, you’ll see that the biggest stretches of losing coincided with the bullpen pitching poorly.  Usually that was closely correlated to the bullpen being overworked.  With an expanded roster and a couple more relievers floating around, that shouldn’t be a problem.

 

The Mets have stumbled a couple of times, but for most of the season they’ve played slightly above .500.   All it takes is a little bit of a streak, a couple of hot bats, and some timely hits.  17-13 is certainly doable.   The competition is certainly not going to be a problem.  The Mets have a lot of games against some sub-par teams that are as far out of it as they are, and there is no reason they can’t win those games.

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Some Random Math About Bay and 2012

The Mets offense has the potential to be pretty excellent next year.  That next level to ‘really excellent’ depends a lot on Jason Bay.  He’s shown some improvement lately, perhaps there were lingering effects of the concussion that he didn’t even realize.  Still, he’s been pretty bad overall.   I think how well Jason Bay plays the rest of 2011 will go a long way towards how the media feels about the Mets in 2012. I’m proposing a direct relationship between Jason Bay’s home run total through the rest of the season, and the Mets predicted win total in 2012.

 

He’s got 9 right now.  11 seems a stretch, but if he got to 20 I feel like people would proclaim him ‘back’.  I’ll set that as the absolute ceiling, and say it equates to 89 wins.   Each home run less than that will be worth 1 win.  If he doesn’t hit another, the Mets will be predicted to win 78.  If he hits 5 to finish with 14, 83 wins.

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Free Falling

The Mets have been in a free fall, plummeting towards worthlessness and erasing all the good will they achieved this season. It’s not totally their fault; They’ve been struck with a lot of injuries, and Sandy Alderson traded two expendable, but useful, parts for prospects once it was obvious the Mets weren’t going to make a real run at the playoffs. Still, despite the occasional fight they show, they’ve also showed a fair amount of looking flat too. They misplay balls, take bad approaches at the plate, and make bad decisions.

Take last night’s game. The Mets got guys on bases with plenty of opportunity, and turned around and let Worley off the hook. They refused to swing the bat and struck out five times looking, all with runners in scoring position. They worked Worley, but as soon as they gave up the lead they made 12 consecutive outs letting Worley go deeper in the game than he probably should’ve. They misplayed balls in the outfield and made bad throws.

This isn’t to say the Mets have quit. They look more depressed than disinterested. They press and make desperation plays or throws, or look almost fearful at the plate. The word I would use is lost. They look like they don’t know what to do, and have lost some of the routine and instinct that guides most baseball play in an effort to try to do too much.

You can see the effects already. People talk about the Mets as if they’re a horrible disaster of a team, despite playing competitively for a good chunk of the year. The stories about financial disaster are back, false rumors about not being able to spend money and sign players. They’re writing off 2012 without having any idea what will happen with the prospects or free agents this offseason.

Just like the Mets bounced back from 5-13 early, they’ll bounce back from this as well. They won’t play this badly the rest of the way, and that last month will set a tone and provide a lot of info about the off-season direction they need to take. But they have erased much of the goodwill they got for playing hard and being resilient during the midseason. Some may write a positive story overall about the season, but most will dismiss the Mets as anything worth thinking about no matter how this season ends.

 

Faith and Fear in Flushing also has a post today, as probably many Mets bloggers do, about free falling and not being able to get up.  Great minds thinking alike and all that.

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Time To Put Lucas Duda in Right Field

Just last week I suggested the Mets bring up Fernando Martinez to get some playing time at the major league level.  This week he’s returned to the DL.   Maybe the guy will eventually stay healthy, but right now he’s not an option. 

Terry Collins mentioned getting Lucas Duda some playing time in right field, and now seems like the time.   One of the Mets other almost ready prospects,  Kirk Nieuwenhuis, is also on the Dl rendering another RF option unavailable.  These are two of the probable candidates for Duda to compete with in Spring Training for a job in 2012 ,and right now it looks like he’s got the leg up having been successful at the major league level, and having stayed healthy. 

I don’t really care to see a ton of Scott Hairston, Jason Pridie or Mike Baxter.  Nick Evans is another guy that seems like he’d like to compete for that 2012 RF job but probably won’t be a real candidate.  Evans can play first at least, and I’d rather Evans get those AB than the other bench guys, but the Mets might as well give Duda an extra month or reps in the outfield with an eye on 2012.   He’s definitely starting to look like a solid hitter that will need a position for the future.

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The Dilemma ofMeaningless West Coast Baseball

The Mets are on the west coast to play the San Diego Padres and tonight and tomorrow the game doesn’t start until after 10.  I’m not usually one to complain about this; normally I like the quiet nights when everything else has been done for the day and there is nothing left to do but sacrifice sleep to the Mets.

But this Mets team is out of the playoffs.  The Padres are out of the playoffs.  These games have almost no meaning and the Mets are missing some of their most watchable stars to injuries.  Additionally it’s early enough that I don’t feel the panic of “Pretty soon there will be no more baseball games, so I better savor every one” that comes mid-September.  There are still over a month worth of games to watch and they’ll happen at much better hours of the day and the Mets aren’t even playing well right now. 

So while baseball, particularly Mets baseball, is always worth watching, if there was a game or series to skip and get other things done, it’s this one.

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Get Me Fernando Martinez

Photo by Michael Baron

It’s not like we’re expecting Mike Baxter, Nick Evans, or Scott Hairston to be the solution in right field, so why not bring up our oft-injured forgotten prospect Fernando Martinez?  He’s back from his latest injury, is already on the 40-man roster, and has already had his option burned for this year.  He’s 11/36 with 2 walks, 1 HR and 5 doubles since returning to Buffalo.

I had wondered if he may be out of options.  The rule is a little confusing, but it seems to state that a player is on optional assignment in any year that he is on the 40 man roster but spends 20 or more days in the minors.  This would apply to 2011,2010, and 2009 for Martinez.  A player may be optioned a fourth season if he has less than five years of professional experience.  Martinez first year of pro ball was in 2006 at 17 with three different Mets minor league teams, which would give him six years of experience, so it seems like he cannot be optioned next year.  A little digging seems to find an interview with Paul DePodesta saying he does have another option for next year, so it’s probably not D-Day for him yet.  It looks like him being injured in the majors in 2009 prevented it from counting as an option year.  If you’re curious about which players do and do not have options, there appears to be a handy little list right here by tpgmets.

Still, it’s growing close and 2012 will be the last season you can easily bring him up and down.    Obviously the biggest concern is injuries keeping him from getting full seasons of plate appearances in the minors.  He’s never played 100 games in a season, although if he doesn’t have another injury this season he will.   He can prove he’s healthy just as easily in the majors as in the minors, and it seems like giving him the opportunity to prove he’s ready is pretty much win-win for the Mets.

Trading him is certainly an option too, but he’s had DL stints this year and hasn’t exactly destroyed AAA although his .766 OPS isn’t bad either.  You’d basically be trading low, given his history, unless he shows you something through the rest of the season.  The best way for that to happen is for him to show it at the major league level where it has the most clout.  If he can hit major league pitching over the next six weeks in the majors, it only increases his value and the options Alderson will have regarding him.

As the Mets injuries pile up and they continue to prove they’re not going to make a significant break with .500 and legitimately chase the Braves, it seems like it’s in everyone’s best interest to promote Fernando Martinez to the big club.   At this point I’d suggest just releasing Willie Harris, who isn’t very good and isn’t part of a solution.

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Almost Every Met Is/Was Injured

Of all the players that have been on the major league roster this year for the Mets, only four of the opening 25 guys have missed no time with the Mets.

Capuano
Dickey
Niese
Pelfrey

All four of those are starting pitchers. 

Update 8/24: Looks like Niese makes it three.

Hairston, Byrdak, Thole, and Harris only missed a couple of days due to bereavement, paternity or foul balls.

And three more got a late start, but have been here since mid-April

Isringhausen – Delayed until 4/11
Gee –  First Start April 17th
Turner – Up since the 19th of April

The Mets actually traded two of their healthier players.

Beltran – excepting brief bout of flu
Rodriguez

Of particular note here is the position players.  Two of the bench guys, Hairston and Harris, have stayed healthy all season and Thole is the only regular.  Justin Turner, despite playing through some bruised thumbs, was added to the roster quickly and has remained on the field throughout.  Everyone else has gone to or from the minors or disabled list, or to another team. 

I’d say that’s probably a big factor in why the Mets have only around a .500 record on the season.