2011 – Page 8 – Optimistic Mets Fan

May 25, 2011

It Was Just One Game, Let’s Overreact

It was a horrible game. The Mets played sloppy baseball all around the diamond, and didn’t hit the ball with runners in scoring position. Niese didn’t throw enough curveballs and was forced to get too many outs in one inning, but survived through five.

This game was not a result of comments made by guys in suits. This game was the result of play on the field, which wasn’t better than the Cubs play on the field. Ruben Tejada was not thinking about what a meanie Fred Wilpon was to Jose Reyes when he failed to catch a pop-up going back.

Jason Bay is not done. He’s not very good, deserves all sorts of criticism, and is killing the lineup but he’s not done. Just like Carlos Delgado was not done in 2008. Remember him? I always laugh because there’s a blog out there called Ketchup On Your Ice Cream, whose last post was a frantic call for Mike Carp to replace him. This blog still stands, nearly three years later, as a monument to not overreacting. Yes, Bay looks horrible. Luckily he’s a hard worker and a hustler. He can come out of it. No better time than right now, when the Mets need offense the most.

Justin Turner is not “regressing to the mean” as I saw one beat writer note last night. Rookies do not regress, because the idea of regressing suggests a baseline value. Justin Turner does not have a baseline value, because his major league sample size is ridiculously small. Even punching in his Buffalo numbers to the extremely questionable minor league equivalency calculator gives him a respectable .743 OPS in the majors. Obviously it’s unlikely he’ll hit like Albert Pujols and drive in a run every game, but that doesn’t mean he’s trash.

The Mets are not done. Yes, they’re in a tough spot with the offense. Justin Turner helped some, but when he cooled off no one else stepped up to get big hits. When the offense is struggling the defense needs to make the plays and avoid costly mistakes that extend innings and make things tougher. The Mets had been pretty good at that, but they’ve gotten sloppy again lately. They’ve got one of those “turning point” series coming up this weekend with the Phillies. Everyone overreacting right now will likely be overreacting in the other direction if the Mets win that series.

The pitching is not horrible. The bullpen is actually very good, but the starters are what’s in question here. Yes, Pelfrey and Niese fell apart around some sloppy play and bad luck, but they’re not crap. Pelfrey is a solid above average workhorse type pitcher and Niese is still learning the league and the craft. Dickey put up a good showing on Friday and hopefully that means he’s back in command of his knuckleball. Gee’s a rookie and Capuano’s pretty solidly average. I’ve long been saying the good part of the Mets rotation, and the team in general, is that they all around don’t suck. There aren’t any huge black holes and automatic outs or gimme pitchers. Every pitcher is capable of pitching very well, and most of the time they’ll keep the team in games. The lack of an ace, for now, is mitigated some by having an above average back end of the rotation. I also suspect Sandy Alderson is looking for a couple of pitchers that could help out a little, for depth purposes, but it’s hard to find much in May.

So in the end, it’s just one game. You can’t overreact and point to every three game losing streak as confirmation that all the negative gibberish spouted about the Mets is true anymore than you can take a three game winning streak as evidence that I’m correct in my prediction of the Mets clinching the division on August 25th against the Phillies. It’s a long season, and lots of things change week to week and even day to day.

May 24, 2011May 23, 2011

Optimistic Notes for the Cubs Series

The Chicago Cubs are 20-25. That’s not exactly much worse than the Mets, but they’ve been getting worse every year with plenty of drama along the way.

Their top player so far is Kosuke Fukedome, according to WAR. They’re actually a team that can hit some, with Starling Castro, Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano. Still, they have not won three games in a row all season which would give hope that the Mets at least won’t get swept. Like much of baseball in the early months and the cold, tickets are available on Stub Hub for $3.

The Cubs flat out can’t pitch. They’re second to last in ERA, last in runs scored and have walked the most batters in the National League.

The Mets will face Ryan Dempster ( 2-4, 6.91 ERA), Casey Coleman, (2-3, 6.03 ERA), and Carlos Zambrano (4-2, 4.88 ERA). Zambrano is probably the best of the bunch and he hasn’t been great this year at all. The Cubs might be a team the Mets could pick on to add a pitcher later in the year if/when the Cubs fall completely out of it, but so far none of them have looked that enticing.

Marlon Byrd and Geovany Soto are both injured and out of the lineup, although Soto may return Thursday.

The Cubs actually have a lower OPS with RISP than the Mets do.

The Mets are 343-343 historically against the Cubs. Winning this series would go a long way towards having a winning record against another club.

The Cubs are 4-6 over their last ten and are 9-13 at home. The Mets can take this series and it would go a long way towards getting them back to .500 and over the hump. They’ll have a tough pitching assignment this weekend in Philadelphia so bouncing back after a series loss would be key.

May 23, 2011May 26, 2011

Tip Your Hat, Get ‘Em In July

The Yankees won this round. Some lucky breaks, grounders that found holes and inopportune walks combined with a rather disappointing offensive performance all around gave the Yankees the series win. If I had to choose one culprit, it would be the offense. Still stunted from losing David, Davis and Pagan and from the continued struggles of Bay and Thole , they had opportunities that they just couldn’t capitalize on. So I’ll tip my hat to the Yankees here; for now they’re the better team as shown in head to head competition. As a reward I’ll refrain from making Yankees jokes for a week, which is roughly how long it takes A-Rod to get down the line these days. Oops, a week starting now.

The Mets lost their first series in a while, which was bound to happen. It sucks that it was the Yankees, but they’re likely a better team, were at home, and have the DH advantage as all AL teams do in these interleague games. The team is still playing pretty good baseball overall, 3-3 since Wright went on the DL, and is keeping themselves in games and in the playoff race. Ike Davis and Angel Pagan may return somewhat soon, and hopefully David Wright just behind them. Until then it’s up to these guys to keep battling, to keep playing good baseball and winning games where they can.

Upcoming is a couple of weeks of weak other-division opponents during the week, and tough divisional opponents on the weekends. The Mets luck out and should miss Roy Halladay next weekend, which is definitely a boon. The Mets need to avoid spiraling into a funk and continue to win more ballgames than they lose. This keeps them in a position to make a run at things as they get healthier, and also helps Sandy Alderson figure out which of his role players and bench guys he needs to keep on this team, and which can be sent away. Z24DR8WQXYQQ

May 21, 2011May 20, 2011

Back to .500

The Mets came inches away from their third straight shut out as Teixeira’s home run just missed Beltran’s glove. In fact, that would’ve been an easy fly out in every other ballpark in the majors.

yankee stadium — You can't see the new building in this picture because it's blocked by that historic structure Babe Ruth once played in...wait, what?

Now the Mets are back at .5oo and 22-22 on the season. They played poorly early on, but despite injuries have really settled down. They’ve suddenly got a very potent bullpen. That’s not an exaggeration either, their bullpen has been as good as you could want for quite a while now. Beato’s back to try to continue his scoreless inning streak. Jason Isringhausen, if they considered relievers for the award, would be on his way to comeback player of the year. Francisco Rodriguez remains one of the best closers in the game, and may actually be the best this year.

The bullpen is meaningless if the starters are going to let games get away, but they haven’t been doing that. The starters have been keeping them in games. The offense is crippled without David Wright, Angel Pagan and Ike Davis, but if they can continue to play the way they’ve been playing they’ll find themselves in a very favorable position as those guys trickle back into the lineup.

Terry Collins and Sandy Alderson both deserve some credit for what’s gone on. Collins has this team focused and playing good baseball, and Alderson hasn’t been shy to shuffle the roster around and reward guys that deserve playing time; like Justin Turner.

I said yesterday I like the way the Mets match up this weekend, and I stand by that. The Mets can hit Burnett tonight and Pelfrey is a better pitcher than Ivan Nova. Another series win, and perhaps a sweep, is within the Mets grasp.

May 20, 2011May 19, 2011

Why The Mets Have the Subway Series Advantage

The Yankees have righted the ship a little with a three game winning streak, but I still like the way the Mets are playing lately over the Yankees. With the exception of the battering the Yankees gave the Orioles last night, they really haven’t been hitting the ball very well. It took them 15 innings on Wednesday to score a second run and they’ve got a lot of aging players that aren’t quite hitting like they did in their prime.

The Mets are without three of their starting lineup, Angel Pagan, Ike Davis and David Wright. So far Justin Turner has really provided the Mets with some good production, and Ruben Tejada and Jason Pridie have filled in pretty well. They’ll be bolstered by playing in the hitter friendly Yankee Stadium, and if Jason Bay can have a nice hot streak, the Mets lineup can still score plenty of runs.

So what about the pitching? If I had to pick the three pitchers in the Yankees rotation I’d want to face, I got them. The Mets miss C.C. Sabathia and Bartolo Colon. Friday night is the briefly a Met Freddy Garcia versus R.A. Dickey. Garcia pitched well to start, but he’s got a 4.63 ERA over his last four starts and a very high WHIP. Dickey is due to have a good game, having recently reduced his walk total. However, he has struggled with a high home run to fly ball ratio, and if he doesn’t get the break he needs on the knuckleball, Yankee Stadium might be cruel. If you’re not going to the game and would rather be close to Citi Field, check out the Apple’s half priced drink special at McFaddens.

Saturday the Mets have Chris Capuano going, who has been pretty solid and consistent for them. The Yankees have their own personal version of Oliver Perez in A.J. Burnett who has his own definition of effectively wild. He’s due for a high walk game and the Mets have been a pretty patient team. This is definitely a winnable game, even if we have to suffer through Fox announcers for it.

The finale features Mike Pelfrey against Ivan Nova. Looks like a mismatch on paper, although Nova has had the occasional gem. Pelfrey has looked great lately, although he has given up a bunch of solo home runs. If he can work the sinker more effectively and keep the ball out of the air, he should have no problem dominating the fly ball happy Yankees.

It’s time to have some fun. The Mets are capable of having a better record than the Yankees after the weekend is over, and depending on the results of the other games, they could be closer to first place as well. The Mets have been playing good baseball, and there is no reason for them to be dismissed as a chore for the Yankees. Don’t believe people when they say it’s a lose-lose for the Yankees because they’re “supposed” to beat the Mets. They’re just being curmudgeons. Both teams are supposed to beat the teams on their schedule, regardless of the proximity of the other teams fans. If the Yankees fall to 24-21 or 23-22, and more importantly fall further behind Tampa and let the Red Sox and/or the Blue Jays past them in the division the criticism and panic will be all over the place, regardless of the opponent.

Likewise the winning team will gain some legitimacy. The Yankees would be keeping pace in a tough division, the Mets would have shaken off a rough start and injuries to get back above .500.

The people that say the Yankees are “supposed” to beat the Mets are under the illusion that the Yankees somehow deserve to make the playoffs, deserve to be the best team in the city and the other teams exist only as farm teams for their pennant run. If the Mets were to beat them, which is certainly possibly and perhaps even likely, they’ll remind everyone that they deserve equal footing and discussion in this city and that cuts into the divine right the Yankees have to dominate the back pages with their petty arguments about which steroid-addled aging star bats in which position in the batting order.

So here’s to a fun Subway Series weekend where everything in the city is about baseball and every player anyone wants to see is on the same field together. I like the Mets chances, and can think of no better way to get back above .500 on the season than to beat on the crosstown rivals.

May 19, 2011

The Mets: Good Lately

The Mets got off to a poor start in 2011: The bullpen looked pretty bad and the starting pitching was struggling. The weather was cold and rainy and they couldn’t buy a clutch hit. Over the last month the Mets have made some roster tweaks and been faced with some injuries, but they’ve also played pretty well.

They are 9-6 in May. They are 16-11 since the seven game losing streak that was over a month ago. If they were to continue at that 16-11 pace they’d actually end up winning 91 games. It’s not a torrid pace in any way, but they win more than they lose. They keep themselves in games, and by extension, in playoff races.

It is probably unrealistic to expect the Mets to continue this pace without David Wright and Ike Davis, but there are a lot of other things not going the Mets way either. Will Jason Bay ever start hitting? Will Justin Turner, Daniel Murphy, or a year older Ruben Tejada provide adequate production for a stretch while the other Mets are on the mend? Will Dickey pitch better, get a better grip on the knuckleball as the weather warms up, and at least keep the Mets in the games? Did Mike Pelfrey get his “one bad month” out of the way in April this year?

There are also many unknowns. I don’t buy into speculation about what the Mets are going to do, rosterwise, with this team. Personally I’d be more shocked of Reyes was traded than if he wasn’t. Alderson has to recognize how good Reyes is, how hard it is to find a good shortstop, and how much the fans love him. Alderson has also claimed that he’ll be able to do what needs to be done around the trading deadline to add players, and the potential for the Mets to get better there exists. Then there is Johan Santana recovering from his capsule tear. It’s unrealistic to rely on him coming back, but that doesn’t mean we can’t hope and wonder. He’s on track for recovery now to return in July or August. Whatever the chances are that he doesn’t experience any setbacks, the possibility that you could add a pitcher of his talent and intelligence to a rotation in September is enough to make me smile.

The Mets look and feel like a team. They’re probably not the best team or most talented team in the league, but lately they’ve been winning games, playing good defense, getting some hits when they need them and capitalizing on mistakes made by the other clubs. No team looks all-powerful in the league and if the Mets can continue playing good baseball, get guys healthy, and make some good roster moves there is no reason why they can’t remain competitive all season.

Maybe they’ll even hit a grand slam.

May 17, 2011

Eating With Bloggers: A Citi Field Food Tour

Monday night I, and many of your other favorite bloggers, was invited out to Citi Field for a Mets game, and a pre-game tour of Mets concessions and clubs with Scott Kleckner, Resident District Manager, Sports & Entertainment for Aramark. It did not disappoint. We ate. A lot.

Obviously the Keith’s Burger that I wrote about earlier in the season was included. We learned that it’s doing very well, and will likely become a permanent fixture in the future much like the Pastrami sandwich (which we also sampled) was tested last year. I love that the Mets and Aramark are trying out new things and never satisfied with the status quo. At Shea the most exciting change you could look forward to was if they changed burger suppliers.

Here’s a shot of the bloggers enjoying a slice of Margherita style pizza at Cascarino’s.

Cascarino’s was chosen in part because it’s local. It’s right there on College Point Blvd and so local that if you could get pizza delivered to Citi Field, Cascarino’s is close enough to do so.

Speaking of local fare, I brought up the departed Brooklyn Brewery beers. Without getting anything explicitly confirmed, it was made pretty clear that Budweiser can exert a ton of pressure financially over what beers are available. It was also suggested that Brooklyn Brewery may not be gone forever. (besides the cans of lager that remain) Right now the only true local beer available to the masses is Blue Point Toasted Lager at Catch of the Day. There’s also a tap of Sixpoint Sweet Action (and some Ommegang. Honestly, given it’s Cooperstown affiliation, EVERY ballpark should have some of it) in the Delta Sky Club, but that’s obviously a limited access area.

Perhaps the best thing we ate all night: An eggplant parmigiana sandwich. It was delicious: perfectly breaded with tasty sauce and excellent bread. I highly recommend it if you have a chance to be in the Delta Sky Club, or if they end up offering it elsewhere.

We also sampled the new fried chicken sandwich from Blue Smoke, which was my second favorite taste of the day. I’m not a big seafood eater, so I passed on the Po’Boy and Flounder at Catch of the Day, but everyone else liked it. I did have a handful of popcorn shrimp, which were definitely tasty but I’ll second Rob Castellano of Amazin’ Avenue in wishing there was some dipping sauces with them. The final thing we tasted was a new appetizer in the Delta Sky Club. It was some hot dog bites, basically a small hot dog dipped in panko breading. It was good, but nothing to really write home about.

Check out some of these other write ups while you’re at it, and don’t forget to follow me on Twitter.

http://www.ontheblack.com/2011/05/17/video-diary-citi-field-food-beverage-operations/

http://www.amazinavenue.com/2011/5/17/2174894/citi-field-food-mets-eat

http://www.kranepoolsociety.com/2011/05/17/a-great-night-of-food-tasting-at-citi-field-and-a-seat-in-the-press-box-for-desert/

May 12, 2011May 12, 2011

The7Line, Stem Cells, One-Out Wins and Above Their Heads

A quick link dump here. I don’t spend enough time promoting the other fans and bloggers out there that deserve mentioning. First up we’ve got an article in the Daily News about Darren Meenan, the creator of The7line who’s making all the cool Mets gear MLB is afraid to print. I met him at the Apple tailgate on Opening Day when he was sporting his “Even Lesbians Love Dickey” shirt.
Joe Janish, working off an interview on Sirius, decides to analyze which Mets are playing over their head this year, if any.

JD at section 518 shares more than we need to know about one-out wins, but it’s still a good read. Ryota Igarashi almost got two consecutive one-out wins last week, but the Mets squandered the opportunity in the bottom of the inning.

This isn’t a blogger, it’s actually about Bartolo Colon, but it’s interesting. He got a stem cell treatment this offseason in his shoulder, and so far it’s been working wonders.

May 11, 2011

Josh Thole’s Mental Toughness

Josh Thole deleted his Twitter account yesterday. Big deal. He tried it out, starting just before Spring Training, and a couple of months in he identified it as having little to no value for him. He received a lot of negative and hateful messages from classless ‘fans’, and ultimately decided any benefit of interfacing with fans and answering questions and sharing was offset by the raging avalanche of hate directed his way.

The truth is Thole’s presense on Twitter was minimal at best, and there wasn’t a lot there. More beneficial is interacting and following other Mets fans and bloggers and discussion the team as fans. Two such people, Kelly Lake and Ted Berg, both wrote nice posts about Thole and Twitter, and they’re worth a read and a follow..as long as you’re not going to spew hate at them. Can’t we all get along?

Btw, you can follow me on Twitter too.

May 11, 2011