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Apparently Optimism Is Not A Sin

Ted Berg over at Tedquarters.net is doing a four part series on “If absolutely everything falls right” and looking at the upward bounds of expectations for the Mets roster.  It’s nice to know I’m not the only person looking at the optimistic avenue.  I was beginning to feel a little like Highlander as an optimistic Mets fan.

 

I think this post on the infield  is very reasonable, and it’s even possible that some of the players overshoot his proposed projections.   The most unrealistic part is them all staying healthy all year.  Still, health is not an unreasonable expectation.  I’m not expecting Wright to break his back again, or Ike Davis managing to fall in exactly the wrong way to ruin his season.

 

His second part, on the outfield, seems a tad more pessimistic to me.  Maybe Bay does rebound a little.  I’ve mentioned that here in the past, but  I think we’re doing a disservice to Duda in projecting his ceiling defensively as “not terrible”.  His outfield experience in the minors was mostly in left, and he’s only got about half a season of time in the majors.  Perhaps his hulking frame tends to make one  believe he’ll never be good defensively, but I think he can hit “not terrible” just by having all of Spring Training to start at the position and build on it as the year goes on.   He can clearly hit the baseball, and if he were to improve on what he did last year he could be our own version of Mike Stanton.  In fact, their offensive WAR on baseball-reference were very similar factoring in playing time.   Ralph Kiner and Keith Hernandez both love his swing, for whatever that’s worth.

 

Ted dreams of Jason Bay having a great first half and becoming a trade chip and Kirk Nieuwenhuis forcing his way up to the majors.  Personally I think that’s unrealistic, because I don’t think a half season of good baseball is going to yield the type of return to make it worth trading him.  He’s not Carlos Beltran and his trade would come along with 24 or so million dollars owed to him and a possible vesting option.  More likely if Nieuwenhuis does warrant a call-up, Andres Torres will become a fourth outfielder.  If this happens we’ll lose a little defensively, but gain a lot offensively, including some flexibility with defensive replacements.

 

So what’s the highest fWAR we can expect from the Mets offense?  I’m going to say somewhere in the 28-30  range.  This would’ve had them 4th in the NL last year and best in the NL East.   I think this number represents of everything goes well.  It’s certainly possible that if one or two things turn out to go extraordinarily well, they could shoot past it.  Because fWAR heavily relies on fielding, if the pitching does better there will be less balls in play and less fielding damage to the values.  I assume part three and four of Ted’s series will deal with the rotation and the bullpen.

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Around Metsopotamia: Links Galore!

First up, Daniel Murphy!

 

Mets Infielder Daniel Murphy To Be Honored With Inaugural “Rising Star” Award At Thurman Munson Awards Dinner On Tuesday Night, January 31, At Grand Hyatt Hotel

***Joins Teammate R.A. Dickey, Yogi Berra, Mark Teixeira, Chris Mullin and Dikembe at Benefit for AHRC New York City Foundation***

New York, January 19—New York Mets infielder Daniel Murphy will receive the inaugural “Thurman Rising Star Award” at the 32nd Annual Thurman Munson Awards Dinner on Tuesday night, January 31, at the Grand Hyatt Hotel in New York City, it was announced today by AHRC New York City Foundation.

Murphy will be cited for his perseverance in returning from injury and for his community spirit and involvement in a wide variety of Mets community programs, particularly in reading for youngsters and the military. The 26-year-old Jacksonville, Florida native hit 313 in his rookie season in 2008 in limited action, and a torrid .320 last year. Murphy has battled several knee injuries since joining the Mets, and is a second base hopeful in 2012.

Murphy joins Yankee Hall of Fame icon Yogi Berra, Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira, Mets pitcher R.A. Dickey, St. John’s/N.B.A. recently inducted basketball Hall of Famer Chris Mullin, and Georgetown/N.B.A. star center Dikembe Mutombo as this year’s honorees.

The gala, which remembers the late, great Yankees catcher and captain, benefits AHRC New York City Foundation.  Berra will receive the Legend Award in celebration of the 50th Anniversary of the 1962 World Champion Yankees, while Mutombo, Teixeira, Dickey and Mullin will each receive “Thurmans.” For tickets and information on the Munson Awards Dinner call 212-249-6188.

Diana Munson, Thurman’s widow, will attend her 32nd straight benefit, having been involved since its inception, raising nearly $11 million to assist children and adults who have intellectual and developmental disabilities. The Thurman Munson Awards are presented for success on the fields of play and philanthropic works off the field.

The AHRC New York City Foundation is a not-for-profit organization that supports programs enabling children and adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities to lead richer, more productive lives, including programs of AHRC New York City.  AHRC New York City is one of the largest organizations of its kind, serving 12,000 children and adults who have intellectual and developmental disabilities, including autism, cerebral palsy, traumatic brain injuries and other disabilities.

 

Second up? The Mostly Mets Podcast! Patrick Flood, Ted Berg, and Toby Hyde do a great job with their weekly podcast.  I usually plug it into my car radio and get to avoid a day or two of hoping the local radio stations are talking about something worthwhile while driving to and from work.  They released the latest episode yesterday afternoon.  One of these days I’ll write up a formal review.

 

Kerel Cooper at On The Black chimes in with his expectations for Jason Bay.  If you recall I tried to find some optimism along that front recently.

 

If you haven’t read R.A. Dickey’s posts in the Times about his climb of Mount Kilimanjaro…well, I’m really not sure why you wouldn’t have read that already, but here it is again.

 

To follow me on Twitter, go here.  To leave feedback on this post, this blog, a recent craft beer you’ve had or to request Ceetar on your internet radio show, drop me an email at ceetar@ceetar.com

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Are the Mets Irrelevant?

Joe Janish at Mets Today declares the Mets irrelevant.  The preliminary ESPN Sunday Night Baseball schedule came out, and the Mets are not on it.  Of course, the schedule only lists 10 of probably 26 or so total games, but certainly no one at ESPN thinks the Mets are going to be a draw early on.

 

He then asks at what point between the Mets signing Pedro Martinez and yesterday did the Mets fade into oblivion?

 

I think that date was when Jose Reyes signed with the Marlins.  The Mets losing their homegrown star, who’s one of the most exciting players in baseball, and seemingly fading into a financial holding pattern, was a big blow.  ESPN likes to air flashy stars and lots of drama.

 

This doesn’t mean the Mets won’t be on ESPN though.  There are certainly parts of the Mets that can turn into compelling stories.  ESPN would love to see a resurgent Johan Santana face Roy Halladay for instance.  If the Mets were competing with the Marlins later in the season, ESPN would love to twist the knife with the Reyes at Citi Field game.   The Subway Series could get flexed to prime time.  If Ike Davis and Lucas Duda are blasting home runs, it could propel the Mets into a interesting story.

 

ESPN’s opinion on what is a draw is also high skeptical.  A Spring Training beaning of Chase Utley by Mike Pelfrey and an ensuing fight could be enough to prompt them to put the first Sunday Mets-Phillies game on.    Still, the Mets are clearly underdogs in not just the games but in attention.   If they want to be a respected or interesting team, they’re going to have to earn it.

 

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2012 New York Met as 2011 New York Giant

Every year there are tons of examples of teams that were deemed to have no chance to be competitive that make surprising runs deep into the playoff rounds and sometimes win it all.  The New York Football Giants were given very little chance to make the playoffs, and even less once they started piling up injuries in the preseason.  Tom Coughlin’s job was in jeopardy nearly every week, and Eli Manning was laughed at for calling himself elite.  The Giants were soundly criticized for mismanaging the cap and for doing nothing in the offseason.

 

Now there are only four teams left.  One of them is the Giants, and no one’s doubting they have a serious shot at winning their game in San Francisco and going to, and perhaps winning, the Super Bowl.

 

Eli Manning won Super Bowl MVP in 2008 in Super Bowl XLII.  That vindicated him some from the critics early in his career, but his failure to win a playoff since had brought back the doubts about his talent.  Last year he had a lot of interceptions, and it really downgraded his status with a lot of people.   In a way, it reminds me of David Wright.

 

I have hope that the 2012 David Wright will be a similar story to 2011’s Eli Manning.  David’s strikeouts nicely represent Eli’s interceptions.  Although he doesn’t have a title, Wright was a legitimate MVP candidate in 2007.  In 2012 I expect to see Wright return to that form.  After Eli outplayed Aaron Rodgers on Sunday there were people that were even comparing him to his brother Peyton, who may be the best ever.   When the 2012 MLB season ends, no longer will we have to debate if he’s the best third baseman in the NL East.  Instead critics will struggle to find a third baseman in all of baseball as good as he is.

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Other Citi Field Changes?

Last spring we were faced with the shocking news that Brooklyn Brewery beers would no longer be available at the Shake Shack stands out in center field.  Every season at most stadiums things change from season to season.  Usually they’re small things; advertisers change, menus get tweaked, music changes and mid-inning contests are different.  Maybe there’s a new dunk tank, a home run apple, or a new banner or piece of memorabilia celebrating the home team.

 

This season the Mets are making major structural changes to the dimensions and height of the wall.  This won’t have any real affect on the win-loss record, but it’ll probably create more home runs for fans.  At least it’ll create a different seating area that should be interesting.


So what smaller changes can we expect at Citi Field this summer?  The easy one is that Keith’s burger stand will probably become a permanent fixture somewhere and we’ll get some new test product in that space.   Citi Field has an extensive beer list, but what it lacks is local community beers.  While on a Citi Field food tour last season, I was told that some of the concessions were chosen because of their local affiliate.  Cascarino’s is so close that if you called them up and gave them Citi Field’s address, it’d fall within the delivery zone.   Hopefully they’ll take this into account when looking at the beer available next year.  The only local beer outside of the Delta Club was Blue Point’s Toasted Lager at Catch of the Day.  Great beer, but not enough.  Nor is the couple of places you can get Brooklyn Lager.  It doesn’t have to be the perfectly paired beer for Shake Shack, Blue Smoke, or El Verano Taqueria even though it should be.  A handful of craft beer booths around the stadium would work just as well.  Plenty of people in New York love their craft beer and want to drink something more than Budweiser at a baseball game even if Anheuser-Busch is going to brand the cans with a Mets logo this year.

 

Ommegang is a New York brewery from Cooperstown.  There should be a tap of beer from there in every stadium across the country in my opinion.  There’s already some in the Delta Club, so why not make it available to all?   I bet it’d be possible to get Brooklyn Brewery, or a different local brewery, to contract-brew specific beers for the Mets.  How cool would it be to be able to get a Tom Seaver Ale, a World’s Fair Unisphere Rye, or a Home Run Apple Cider?

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2012 Mets: The Big Tease

How’s that for a slogan?  This was inspired by the Mets tweeting pictures today of Johan Santana throwing in Port St. Lucie.  It was good news in the sense that his arm didn’t fall off, but throwing in January tells us little about what he’ll do in April.

 

It’s still over a month until pitchers and catchers report, and closer to three until the first real game.  I’m thankful for the Mets sharing these types of things, and love seeing Johan on a baseball field, but ultimately this is a big tease.   There’s still plenty of uncertainty with how Santana’s shoulder will hold up to a full Spring Training and following that, the season.

 

In a way the whole  2012 Mets season may be a tease.  With the finances and roster turnover it very much feels like the Mets are in a holding pattern.  That’s not to say things won’t ultimately turn out good, but there are plenty of question marks we need answers to and a lot of time before we can start finding them.  2012 may be one long quest to find the answers.  What do we really have in Lucas Duda, Josh Thole, Ruben Tejada and Ike Davis?  To what extent can David Wright and Jason Bay rebound?  Are any of the touted pitching prospects going to be knocking on the rotation door for 2013, or sooner?  Is second base the anti-matter to Daniel Murphy‘s matter, causing explosion whenever they come in contact?

 

Stay tuned, because 2012 may be the big tease before we find out where this team is going.

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CRG and Fred Wilpon Don’t Affect Me

I saw this post over at Mets Police about the CRG situation and how fans will root for this team this year.

 

It’s interesting how people sometimes forget that peoples positions, viewpoints, or situations change.  The idea that the Mets hiring CRG could mean they might file for bankruptcy and one day have to sell is not mutually exclusive from the Mets statement that they didn’t hire CRG to file for bankruptcy.
The same was true of the original Mets statement that the Madoff situation would not affect the Mets.  It’s easy to look back now and accuse them of lying, but the situation probably spiraled beyond what they expected, including the contining poor economy to the reach of the Picard lawsuit.  You could say perhaps it was just short-sighted and that they should’ve known it was going to affect the team, but I’m not so sure that’s the case either. If the Mets had not gone into a downward spiral themselves and instead had won games, stayed healthy, and been competitive there is a chance they would’ve remained profitable.
If you want to read into every statement and play conspiracy theory that’s fine.  Chances are there are stuff Fred Wilpon is glossing over and stuff he’s flat out ignoring.  He could even be lying about certain things.  We’re not obligated to know everything about the behind the scenes investments or have access to all financial statements of the team we root for or the owners of that team.  No one’s doubting that the current financial situation around the Mets is bad, cost us Jose Reyes, and looks dire. Still, hiring CRG was actually a positive move.  It’s not a “Hey look at the embarrassment this team is” move, it’s one aimed at getting the team righted.
CRG was _not_ hired by Sterling or the Wilpons, and the negative revenue situation does not go away with a new owner.  In the same breath people are criticizing the Mets for spending wildly to get themselves into this mess, and criticizing the Wilpons for being too broke to spend wildly to try to get the team out of this mess.  Some question who would want to be a minority investor in this team, but isn’t it also a valid question to ask who would want to buy a team that they’d have to put tens of millions of dollars into each year?  Remember they lost 70 million last year.  You can see value in the future of this team as both a minority or majority owner if you look.
You’re welcome to not spend money on the team if you want. The Wilpons won’t see a dime anyway, no matter what you spend, since the team is losing money. Winning solves the Mets problems, losing exacerbates it.  Nothing you do will change that.  If you can give up the enjoyment derived from going to see a game, that’s fine.  Just remember you’re also withdrawing your support from Ike Davis.  David Wright will notice when he hits a walk-off grand slam and there are only 12 people cheering.  Do you think he’ll remember that when he becomes a free agent at the end of one of the next two seasons? Did Jose Reyes notice how empty it was in front of his supposedly loving fans in September while he was chasing Mets history?
Some people phrase it as “Choose the Mets, not the Wilpons”. To me that means enjoying Mets baseball whenever I can get it and not worrying about who the owner is.  I derive no joy from who owns the Mets, or who runs the Mets.  All I keep thinking is that if the Wilpons selling is so important to you, you’d almost have to be disappointed if the Mets went on a miracle run and went to the World Series, because the resultant cash flow could cement them as owners.  So I’ll stick to hoping for that miracle run and let the financial stuff shake out where it may.

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Some Football Giants Thoughts

I haven’t been a Giants fan long, but it’s nice to see a team I root for show some modicum of success.  Watching Eli Manning play this year has been a joy.

 

I’m not going to attempt to break down football strategy here.  I’m not qualified for that.  I do think the Giants will win this game though.  Eli Manning is awesome, and he’s got the receivers he needs to score on any defense as well as the talent to still make plays when the offensive line is failing in front of him.  That’s without even mentioning his Carlos Beltranesque clutchiness.

 

On the defensive side it seems like the Giants have finally managed to stay healthy long enough that their very talented players have gotten in the practice time to be good again.  I think getting two strong games under their belt did wonders for their confidence too.

 

Either way I’m glad the Giants avoided the “Should we fire Tom Coughlin?” and other associated offseason drama that happens with teams that fail. (See A. Mets, B. Jets)

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Quick thoughts on Mets and CRG

Here’s the inital report from Eno Sarris at Amazin’ Avenue about the Mets hiring CRG, the turnaround consultants that handled the Texas Rangers’ sale.

 

Dan Lewis has some interesting remarks about it in his twitter feed last night as well. (Mostly directed at Adam Rubin)

 

Probably too soon to really tell what it means with any certainty, especially for an outsider, but it’s probably a win-win for fans.    I don’t really care who owns the Mets as long as they can spend money and build the team as needed.   if CRG leads the Wilpons towards a sale that’s fine.  (As long as we don’t end up with someone worse owning the team, which is always a possibility)  If they fix the cash flow problems via a chapter 11 or whatever it is they do?  That’s fine too.  Whatever gets the team out of the red the fastest.

 

Okay, that’s enough murky financial mumbo jumbo to last me at least until they announce the minority owners sale thing.  Back to watching the Islanders and Giants.

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Hofstra’s Mets 50th Anniversary Conference

Just helping to spread the word a little about the conference.  Should be a good time.

 

Head over to Faith and Fear in Flushing for more details.

 

The Hofstra Cultural Center’s conference honoring the 50th Anniversary of the New York Mets is coming Thursday to Saturday, April 26-28, and if you’re in interested in contributing a paper or presentation regarding some aspect of your favorite ballclub, please contact me at faithandfear@gmail.com. Full details are posted here (with some more information here).

This conference, celebrating the Mets at this milestone juncture in their history, was the brainchild of the late Dana Brand, a great friend to all Mets fans in blogging and in rooting. Dana was a longtime professor at Hofstra and got the conference moving toward reality before his sudden passing last May. The rest of us working on it look forward to pushing it across the finish line in his memory, and you are most heartily invited to join in that push.

We’ve received some great proposals that examine the Mets from all kinds of angles since first mentioning the conference in November, and more great proposals are welcome through next week. Again, please e-mail me with your ideas or any questions, and I’ll do my best to be of assistance. Thank you.

This also seems like a decent time to ask you to consider making a contribution to the Dana Brand Memorial Scholarship Fund at Hofstra. You can send online contributions to www.hofstra.edu/giving. Under “Gift Designation,” please specify the Dana Brand Memorial Scholarship Fund. If you prefer to contribute by check, please send whatever you can to Meredith Celentano; Assistant Vice President for Development; 102Q Hofstra Hall; Hempstead, NY 11549. Anything you can do to help a student carry on in Dana’s name is greatly appreciated.