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Tripling Barry Zito’s ERA

Clearly Barry Zito’s ERA is a factor of small sample size. (sing it everybody!)

 

He’s coming into tonight’s game with a 1.125 ERA having given up only two runs over 16 innings.  This is unsustainable, as I suspect the Mets will demonstrate.

 

If the Mets score 6 runs in 5.1 or less it would triple Zito’s 1.125 ERA.
If they only score five they’d have to do it in 2.1 innings to triple it.
4 runs in 8 or less innings would double it.
If they only score 3, they’d have to chase him in 4 innings to double his ERA.
For his ERA to dip under 1, he only needs 2.1 scoreless innings, but if the Mets score once he’d need to go 11.

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Do You Believe In 6-3?

Is the Mets 6-3 record more than just a hot start?

 

Nine games are not a lot.  There is a LOT of baseball to be played yet.  Even the 1962 Mets had a stretch of games where they won six of nine.  In fact, they won nine of 12.  Of course, they followed that up with a 17 game losing streak, mostly to the Giants and Dodgers.

 

I don’t think this team is 1962 bad.  I’m pretty sure of it.  I don’t even think they’re 2011 bad.  I think this collection of players is a winning ballclub.  I said in March that this division would be a race down to the wire.  I still believe that they are all going to be more bunched up this season, compared to the Phillies winning 102 games last year.  As we know, this means winning the games against the division opponents becomes even more important.  The Mets are 6-3 against the division, 2-1 against the favorites, and are playing good baseball.

 

I was more optimistic, obviously, about this team to begin with.  I believe.  I think others are starting to believe too.  Maybe not that this team could actually compete, but that they might actually win more games than they lose.  They’ve shed the negativity that’s so prevalent in the offseason for what looks like a very fun team to watch.  You could see the expected win totals creeping up from the offseason, through Spring Training, and now even further with a nice start.

 

Obviously nothing’s perfect.  The Mets won’t win 67% of their games.  They probably won’t go 159 and 3. Bay still is very spotty and seems to get hurt every time he does anything good.  The defense is a work in progress, and may actually be really bad.  Mike Pelfrey is still Mike Pelfrey.  Although I’d offer this counter point to those saying it’s a pain to watch Pelfrey pitch:  Think about how the Phillies fans feel watching guys get soft blooping singles off of him and unable to make much of them.   Is there anything more frustrating than watching your players make soft contact?

 

There is much more good than bad in this short part of the season.  Ike Davis and Lucas Duda have started slowly, but they’re already hitting home runs.   The rotation has actually been excellent.  Santana is still standing and pitching well, Dickey is still awesome, Niese so far looks to have taken his new contract to heart, and even Pelfrey is generating the groundballs he needs to be successful.   Let’s not forget David Wright.  Many of you joked about his jammed finger and day to day status leading to a three month DL stint.  Instead he missed merely three games and homered in his very next pitch.  I think Rich Coutinho said it best:

So let’s enjoy some baseball, and see if the Mets can sweep the Braves again!

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The Importance of Adjustments

Citi Field, by CeetarDavid Wright was hitting for three and when he broke his finger it has devastating effects on the Mets lineup.  That’s not to say they can’t win without him, but at the time of the injury he was practically carrying the team and no one else has managed to pick them back up yet.

 

Regardless of if Wright is back Friday, next Friday, or after a DL stint is irrelevant.  The Mets need to make adjustments and this 50 hour window between games is the perfect opportunity to do it.   Assess the best way to set up the lineup, have guys refocus on the game plan, do their infield drills, and put extra work in scouting the Phillies pitchers.   Those two losses should keep the Mets from getting complacent under a “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” mentality.  It’s broke, so fix it.

 

Obviously Ike Davis and Lucas Duda need to hit more.  Jason Bay does too, as he represents basically all of the right-handed power in the lineup if Scott Hairston isn’t starting, but if Bay can simply manage to not double up on career-worst years I’ll be happy.  I’ve never really been a big believer in the idea that lefties can’t hit lefties, attributing it more to a small sample size coupled with the inability for players to get enough reps against them.  The Mets lineup is extremely left-handed, so they really need to start hitting to avoid being exploited by LOOGYs.  Maybe the massive amount of lefties the Mets will see, both in Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, and in the relievers teams bring in face the Mets lefty sluggers, will give Duda and Davis, as well as Daniel Murphy, Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Josh Thole, the reps against them that they need to get comfortable with release points and different breaks.  Certainly if they could start demonstrating that they can hit lefties, it will keep Terry Collins from putting lesser players from the bench in key spots.

 

4-2 is still a good start.  The Mets now need to do the work required to win on this road trip, and continue the good start.   Cliff Lee will be tough, but the Mets can hit Vance Worley and they own Cole Hamels.  Then they get three against the Braves again, who they already swept.   David Wright back would have a huge impact on run-scoring, but they have to find ways to win these games with or without him.

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You Better Believe We’re Going To Overreact

Mets snag an Opening Day WinThree games is a very small sample of data.  It’s still early.

 

I don’t care.  I’m going to enjoy it.  I’m going to throw out ridiculous information because it’s fun to look at projections of Lucas Duda hitting 120 home runs.

 

While three games is just three games, it’s still a lot more meaningful than Spring Training data.  Frank Francisco nailed down three saves.  The bullpen pitched well.   Lucas Duda really does look like he can hit.   Ruben Tejada’s looking good.  The Mets are in first place.  Even Jason Bay has an RBI, and leads the league in sacrifice flies.

 

Just enjoy it.  Things will probably shake out differently the rest of the season.  I doubt the Mets go 162-0.  Still, I think as people see this team play they’re realizing that they actually do have talented players on it.  Enjoy the ride.  Is there something from this weekends games that opened your eyes involving this Mets team?

 

David Wright is on pace to … I don’t even want to say it.  I’m afraid I’ll jinx it.  There is a certain batter outcome that happens at the plate, and it’s one that’s been very prevalent in Wright’s game the past couple of years.  Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn are experts at it.  Wright hasn’t done it this year.   He didn’t do it in Spring Training either.  Keith Hernandez is practically drooling over his batting stance so far this season.   We all know what David’s capable of.  This is my biggest point of optimism this weekend.

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Citi Field’s Updated Scoreboard

Citi Field updated the scoreboard this season.  It’s now a little more colorful, but more importantly it now contains a lot of new info.

You’ve got stats, including career stats, for the batter.   These include more than the traditional HR and RBI that you used to see.  You’ve got OBP, and SLG, and OPS, and even XBH.

 

You’ve got a spray chart for all the balls in play for the batter during the game, including a recap of each of his at-bats.

You’ve still got a little factoid, and most of them are still pretty silly, about the player.

 

There’s an in-inning summary of how each batter did and how they did or did not get on base.

 

The pitching summary includes a dynamic WHIP and ERA as well, while still maintaining the K count and giving you the pitch speed.

 

There’s a ton of info on there, and it’s great to see.   Now we’ll have less reason to need to pull up baseball-reference on our phones mid-game to check on players.  Speaking of which, they really need an Android app.

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Here’s Your Optimistic Mets Prediction

Calling predictions predictions under-emphasizes how inaccurate and subject to random luck they are, even when it’s the so-called experts making them.  I am not an expert, merely a blogger that likes to think positively.  So what do I think the Mets do in 2012?

 

I think the highest probability bet is they finish third.  Right around 82-84 wins.  I know there are people out there that think that’s crazy, but it’s really not that outlandish.  The bullpen and rotation are improved over last year, even if you want to argue over how much.  The offense lost some big pieces, but it’s also got some guys back too.  Adding in some power to a team that was already going to get on base a lot should score a lot of runs.  I don’t think the Marlins improved enough to get above .500, and I think one of either the Nationals or Braves will deal with enough problems to fall below that mark.

 

This doesn’t mean the Mets can’t make the playoffs.  (Nor does it mean they can’t finish last) I’ve watched enough baseball to know anything can happen, and I think the Mets do have enough potential upside in a lot of their players to be able to realize competitiveness if enough things go right.  Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, Ruben Tejada, even Dillon Gee, Jon Niese and Josh Thole all are of an age or stage in their career where improvement is possible, even expected.   Mike Pelfrey keeping the ball down and yielding fewer home runs this season and Johan’s shoulder holding up better than we can reasonably home are other key factors that could lead to a good Mets season.

 

So all in all this season should at least be a lot of fun.  If you had to pick just one thing to zone in on and believe in, one reason to seriously watch this Mets baseball team, I’d say watch Lucas Duda and Ike Davis.  The lefty power the Mets have this season is very real and the Pepsi Porch may become the new hot spot to catch a home run ball this season.

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And The Winner Is…

The Mets!

 

oh wait, that’s tomorrow.

 

Arthur Pesner wins the seatcrew.com tickets to next Wednesday’s game against the Nationals with the correct answer of Ron Taylor in 1970 in relief of Tom Seaver who took a no decision. Ron Taylor is the first Mets pitcher to record a win on Opening Day!

 

Thanks for playing, check back again for tickets to the Brewers gamae on May 15th.

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Mets Ticket Giveaway!

Thanks to Seatcrew.com, Optimistic Mets Fan has two tickets for you to win to next Wednesday’s game, April 11th, against the Nationals.

 

Seatcrew.com is a secondary ticket market similar to Stubhub with an important twist: There are no ticket fees for the buyer or the seller, which means lower prices on tickets for you.  For a full write-up, and a list of which games you have a chance to win tickets to, check out my post from the offseason.

 

For the next three giveaways I’m going to ask for your predictions on certain Mets players over a 3-game series, with opposite The Price Is Right rules; the person that guesses closest without going _under_ will win.  This means if the category is David Wright hits, and you guess five and he hits six, you’re disqualified.  That’s right, I’m bribing you to be Optimistic.

 

Since this week’s contest closes at Noon on Wednesday and there are no real games to predict, I’ll ask a trivia question.  I’ll draw a random entry of all qualifying responses submitted in time to contest@ceetar.com.  Put Optimistic Mets Fan Ticket Giveaway in the subject line and the answer to the following question in the body.

 

Who was the first Met pitcher to record a win on Opening Day?