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Resiliency and Back to Intra-Division Games

The Mets are 10-5 against the other NL East teams this year and they have six more coming up this week.  It’s against the Marlins and the Phillies, the two teams behind the Mets in the standings.  They’re both capable teams, and the Mets face some good pitching, but it’s the perfect time to reassert their intra-division dominance and keep a winning record going.

 

The Mets have showed a nice resiliency this season with managing to avoid falling below .500 despite a couple of losing streaks.  4-2 would maintain their .667 winning percentage in the division as well as put them back to their 4 games over .500 high watermark.  With Tejada (likely as of Sunday evening) going to the disabled list the Mets could use some of that resiliency.  Jordanny Valdespin spent just enough time back in Buffalo to make sure he didn’t leave the oven on, and is on his way back to the majors.

 

The Mets do face some good pitching, but Roy Halladay hasn’t been perfect this year and Cliff Lee is making his first start off the DL.  Hopefully there’s some rust there.   The Mets miss Josh Johnson in Miami, but Carlos Zambrano, Mark Buehrle and Ricky Nolasco have been pitching pretty well.  Maybe this is the week Ike Davis and Lucas Duda start acting like the bash brothers I hoped they could be.

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Josh Lewin Plugs an Old Mets Sponsor

You guys will dig this quote from Josh Lewin.  He was talking about Chris Schwinden getting strikeouts in Wednesday’s game.  Specifically he was referencing Jordan Schafer’s league leading 31st strike out.

“When you’re having more than one, (Jordan) Schafer’s the guy to pitch to.”

When you're having more than one..

This amused me at least.  Schaefer, for those of you into the history of Mets sponsors, was a Mets sponsor (before my time) years ago and one if their tag lines was “Schaefer is the one beer to have when you‘re having more than one”.

 

In memory of the Mets sponsor (now owned by Pabst) the Crane Pool Forum awards the Schaefer Player of the Game (and month) awards to the most deserving Met, based on member voting after each game.  You’re welcome to join in the discussion.

When you're having more than one.. (winners? or beers?)

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My Paper: The New Age Mets Fan

As you probably know by now, Hofstra held Dana Brand’s 50th Anniversary of the Mets conference last week.  I wrote a paper on the new age of Mets fans, like myself, who have not seen a Mets World Series Championship.  I talk about the differences in rooting for the team without remembering them going all the way, without that light at the end of the tunnel.  I emphasize how different it is for us not to have lived through all the great stories told about the ’86 and ’69 teams and how a lot of the changes to baseball like the Wild Card or black uniforms are things we’ve pretty much always had.

 

Check out some of the other bloggers who were there, particularly Greg at Faith and Fear in Flushing who put a lot of work in making it a conference Dana would’ve been proud of. On the Black.  A Gal For All Seasons.  Metstradamus. The Eddie Kranepool Society. Mets Police. And probably a bunch I’m forgetting this morning.

 

You can read my paper in its entirety here.

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The Hofstra Mets 50th Anniversary Conference

You’ve probably heard about this conference, running from this Thursday through Saturday.  If not, here’s a link to Faith and Fear in Flushing and Greg Prince, who’s done a great job as a liaison between Hofstra and us bloggers in memory of Dana Brand, who’s brainchild this conference was.

 

I’ll be part of the Brown Bagging in the Bullpen with the Blogosphere lunch panel on Thursday and Saturday with some notable Mets bloggers.  I’ll also be speaking in a panel on Saturday entitled “Metmoirs” and Memories about the plight of the New Age Mets Fan who’s never consciously lived through a Mets championship.

 

I encourage you to check it out, as it promises to be a fun couple of days and the Mets are headed out of town to Colorado anyway!

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Tripling Barry Zito’s ERA

Clearly Barry Zito’s ERA is a factor of small sample size. (sing it everybody!)

 

He’s coming into tonight’s game with a 1.125 ERA having given up only two runs over 16 innings.  This is unsustainable, as I suspect the Mets will demonstrate.

 

If the Mets score 6 runs in 5.1 or less it would triple Zito’s 1.125 ERA.
If they only score five they’d have to do it in 2.1 innings to triple it.
4 runs in 8 or less innings would double it.
If they only score 3, they’d have to chase him in 4 innings to double his ERA.
For his ERA to dip under 1, he only needs 2.1 scoreless innings, but if the Mets score once he’d need to go 11.

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The Importance of Adjustments

Citi Field, by CeetarDavid Wright was hitting for three and when he broke his finger it has devastating effects on the Mets lineup.  That’s not to say they can’t win without him, but at the time of the injury he was practically carrying the team and no one else has managed to pick them back up yet.

 

Regardless of if Wright is back Friday, next Friday, or after a DL stint is irrelevant.  The Mets need to make adjustments and this 50 hour window between games is the perfect opportunity to do it.   Assess the best way to set up the lineup, have guys refocus on the game plan, do their infield drills, and put extra work in scouting the Phillies pitchers.   Those two losses should keep the Mets from getting complacent under a “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” mentality.  It’s broke, so fix it.

 

Obviously Ike Davis and Lucas Duda need to hit more.  Jason Bay does too, as he represents basically all of the right-handed power in the lineup if Scott Hairston isn’t starting, but if Bay can simply manage to not double up on career-worst years I’ll be happy.  I’ve never really been a big believer in the idea that lefties can’t hit lefties, attributing it more to a small sample size coupled with the inability for players to get enough reps against them.  The Mets lineup is extremely left-handed, so they really need to start hitting to avoid being exploited by LOOGYs.  Maybe the massive amount of lefties the Mets will see, both in Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, and in the relievers teams bring in face the Mets lefty sluggers, will give Duda and Davis, as well as Daniel Murphy, Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Josh Thole, the reps against them that they need to get comfortable with release points and different breaks.  Certainly if they could start demonstrating that they can hit lefties, it will keep Terry Collins from putting lesser players from the bench in key spots.

 

4-2 is still a good start.  The Mets now need to do the work required to win on this road trip, and continue the good start.   Cliff Lee will be tough, but the Mets can hit Vance Worley and they own Cole Hamels.  Then they get three against the Braves again, who they already swept.   David Wright back would have a huge impact on run-scoring, but they have to find ways to win these games with or without him.

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Here’s Your Optimistic Mets Prediction

Calling predictions predictions under-emphasizes how inaccurate and subject to random luck they are, even when it’s the so-called experts making them.  I am not an expert, merely a blogger that likes to think positively.  So what do I think the Mets do in 2012?

 

I think the highest probability bet is they finish third.  Right around 82-84 wins.  I know there are people out there that think that’s crazy, but it’s really not that outlandish.  The bullpen and rotation are improved over last year, even if you want to argue over how much.  The offense lost some big pieces, but it’s also got some guys back too.  Adding in some power to a team that was already going to get on base a lot should score a lot of runs.  I don’t think the Marlins improved enough to get above .500, and I think one of either the Nationals or Braves will deal with enough problems to fall below that mark.

 

This doesn’t mean the Mets can’t make the playoffs.  (Nor does it mean they can’t finish last) I’ve watched enough baseball to know anything can happen, and I think the Mets do have enough potential upside in a lot of their players to be able to realize competitiveness if enough things go right.  Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, Ruben Tejada, even Dillon Gee, Jon Niese and Josh Thole all are of an age or stage in their career where improvement is possible, even expected.   Mike Pelfrey keeping the ball down and yielding fewer home runs this season and Johan’s shoulder holding up better than we can reasonably home are other key factors that could lead to a good Mets season.

 

So all in all this season should at least be a lot of fun.  If you had to pick just one thing to zone in on and believe in, one reason to seriously watch this Mets baseball team, I’d say watch Lucas Duda and Ike Davis.  The lefty power the Mets have this season is very real and the Pepsi Porch may become the new hot spot to catch a home run ball this season.

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The Mostly Mets Podcast: Just the right amount of bacon

Most of the Mets logoThe Mostly Mets Podcast, with Toby Hyde, Patrick Flood, and Ted Berg is a succulent weekly podcast that’s, oddly enough, mostly about the Mets. It’s really _all_ about the Mets they just occasionally wander off the train of thought to tackle other appetizing stories around baseball, sports, or the world of awesome sandwiches.  They record once a week for about an hour, usually a little more, and occasionally mix in an interview with a Mets player or coach, or another interesting party if it’s topical to the theme of the week. They even take listener feedback! Even mine!

 

It’s what I always envision sports talk radio should be.  All three of them know what they are talking about and present their points not with arrogance or yelling, but with some forethought and research.   They all have different areas of expertise, which makes them perfect blend of ingredients.   They know the prospects, they can crunch the numbers, and they have a good sense of the strategy of the game itself.  They usually release new episodes on Thursday afternoons, and they’re usually just foot-long enough for the final three legs of my work commute for the week.

 

It’s a delicious show and I always found my brain sated after listening.  Whether it’s pondering the upside of a pitching prospect, discussing defensive positioning, or trying to figure out the next time I’m going to be near that sandwich shop Ted is raving about, I always walk away from the podcast with something to chew on.