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Some Thoughts on Dynamic Pricing

The Mets now have their dynamic pricing guide online on Mets.com.  Tickets first went on sale to certain presale codes Monday.  I got Opening Day tickets at face value, but just three hours later they were $10 higher.  Btw, at 10am today the Mets blogger presale  begins.  More details here.

This ultimately sucks, although it won’t quite hurt the true fans.  Dynamic pricing does not change the prices of packs and plans.  If you want a particular promotion or banner day, you have an incentive to buy ahead beyond just getting better seats.  As more fans get exciting about specific events, the price will go up.  This will have a fairly catastrophic effect on suddenly popular games.  Clinchers, Dickey’s first home game after his no-hitter, and late season divisional matchups during pennant races can suddenly become very expensive.  Staying ahead of the hype will save you money.

 

On the flip side, it’s unlikely tickets will plummet that far for unwanted games.  The Mets set up an artificial floor so that a fan will never pay less than a season ticket holder paid for that section.  Reading between the lines to me means that it’ll never be less than the 10% discount they get.  Prices are fairly reasonable for value games as they are, but it’d be nice if the more expensive games become affordable if the Mets are eliminated early or if the weather is supposed to be really bad.

 

Another interesting use for dynamic pricing is tracking the popularity of games.  It can give us insight into tickets sold that previously only the Mets knew.  If you want to know how Banner Day is doing for example, you can check out the prices for that game against a similarly valued game and see if it’s inherently more popular or not.  As we get a feel for it, we’ll probably be able to tell how close it is to sold out, even within specific sections.

 

I’ll also be curious to see how the secondary market reacts.  Sites like Stub Hub and Seat Crew that deal in second-hand tickets may not be able to keep up with the fluctuations.  If a game suddenly takes off in popularity, it will take a while for people to unlist and relist their tickets.  If ticket prices drop, the secondary market will suddenly be overpriced.  This may also kill day of game sales.  If fans really want to go to a game, chances are the prices will increase past the secondary market…unless it’s raining.

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Waiting On Line (Not Online) For Mets Tickets

Mets keychain handed out on the line for buying tickets before the 2000 seasonIt was winter 2000 and New York was in the middle of a freezing cold stretch of weather.  Wind chill estimates had the temperatures at subzero on the day that the Mets started selling tickets.  This was before you could buy them online, and me and a couple of friends decided to camp out at Shea Stadium to buy tickets for the 2000 season.

 

We bundled up with blankets and layers and thermoses of coffee and hot chocolate and drove to Shea Stadium.  We made record time since it was the middle of the night, parked, and got on line.  We were by no means first; there were dozens of people already there, maybe as many as 200.  It was frigid and we were basically standing around shivering with hundreds of dollars in our pockets because you had to pay cash.  The warmest part was when you got to move a little bit to use the bathroom.

 

Handed out on the ticket line before the 2000 season

Eventually they moved most of the line inside.  It cut down on the wind a little bit, but it wasn’t any warmer.  As it got closer to the time tickets were actually on sale a couple of players, and manager Bobby Valentine, came out and were shaking frozen hands and signing autographs as the line started to move.   Someone, presumably with WFAN, was handing out the keychains in the picture here.  Eventually we were able to purchase our tickets, which included tickets to the epic 8th inning comeback against the Braves on Fireworks Night, climbed back into the car, blasted the heat and drove back home and fell asleep.

 

Nowadays online ticket sales have done away with this camping out, which is definitely a good thing for those of us that aren’t 17 anymore with free time to wait outside a baseball stadium for hours, but there’s a certain nostalgic machismo to having braved the elements to root for your team.

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Regular Season Ticket Pre-Sale

A special pre-sale for blog readers starts Wednesday at 10am.  Follow this link and use the code HODGES to purchase tickets to any regular season Mets game.  Obviously Opening Day and the Subway Series are the ones guaranteed to sell out, but you might want to get a jump on other games as well.  You never know what supply and demand will dictate closer to the day of a game, especially with the new flex pricing.

 

My suggestions are to buy for Banner Day and the bobblehead (Edgardo Alfonzo) of your choice.  June 3rd is the Mets Hall of Fame induction for John Franco.  Complete promotional information found here.

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Will The Mets Be Better Than 2011?

Optimism starts small; will the Mets improve on 2011’s record?  Are they a better team?  Will they perform better?

 

I’m leaning towards yes.   Losing Reyes, Pagan and Beltran is a big hit, but the Mets offense is still pretty strong.  Lucas Duda looks like a solid player.  Andres Torres may not be great, but even if he’s not good the Mets have high hopes for Kirk Nieuwenhuis coming up pretty quickly.  David Wright and Ike Davis are healthy, and Daniel Murphy should get some more playing time as well.  Josh Thole and Ruben Tejada may not be the best, but they’re pretty good at not making out and keeping the line moving.  This team won’t have problems scoring runs.

 

The bullpen is clearly slated to be better.  Francisco Rodriguez will not be here, but the Mets added Frank Francisco, Ramon Ramirez, and Jon Rauch.  Some injury concerns, but the bullpen has some pretty good depth.

 

The starters are where the big questions come in.  The Mets lost Chris Capuano, who did a pretty good job for them.  Good job aside, his eminently replaceable 1.7 rWAR is not going to handicap them much.  Johan Santana is slated to take that spot, provided he does not have a setback during Spring Training.  Despite this serious possibility I have faith Santana can at least approach the 1.7 rWAR Capuano gave the Mets.  Even if he’s somewhat diminished, he’s a smart competitor that should be able to get by with somewhat reduced ability.    With luck bouncing a little more in Pelfrey’s favor this season, and Jon Niese’s peripherals leading to a better ERA, it’s possible the Mets starters will be better too.  It probably hinges most on health, but that’s an argument and concern for every team.

 

So there’s a very high-level argument for the Mets being better.  We can worry about how much better another time, particularly as it pertains to the other NL East teams and their records.  Specifically, it’ll be decided on the field with the games being played, not on a blog or newspaper somewhere before the season even starts.

 

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Spring Training Is Finally Here

It’s arrived. The day we’ve been counting down towards since the Mets walked off the field last fall.  Pitchers and catchers are reporting to Port St. Lucie Florida to Digital Domain Park to being preparing to play baseball.

 

It’s a time of new beginnings and fresh starts.  The Mets begin 2012 with no players injured and everyone preparing together.  Terry Collins and Sandy Alderson now have a year of familiarity with the team and the organization and a better sense of what they’re capable of.  There are new faces and old ones.  Someone here is going to surprise us and have a breakout season.   There are going to be long majestic home runs arcing into the sky, diving catches on sinking liners, and curveballs making batters look funny and strike out.  Everything you love about baseball starts happening now, as the Mets start to get ready to play some exhibition games in two weeks.

 

Soon (March 5th, 6pm) the voices of Howie Rose and newly acquired Josh Lewin will drift out over the airwaves, talking about Mets this, and Mets that.  The Mets Extra jingle will play and we’ll hear Mets talk and interviews and daily sound bytes from Terry Collins. What could be better?  It’s baseball!

 

What to expect from Optimistic Mets Fan this year?  Think of these as my New Year’s Resolutions, because the baseball New Year starts now.

 

For one, I’ve got a couple of ticket giveaways planned.  That should be fun, but I should warn you: I’m probably going to request optimism from you to be eligible.

I plan to work on getting a working database on my own computer so I can tweet and post random stats that amuse me, as well as delve further into the understanding of baseball as a whole.

I also plan to interface with other bloggers better.  Whether this is linking them more, guest-writing, or talking on the various radio/podcast type shows out there only time will tell.

And I will continue to blog about beer as it pertains to baseball.  I’ll specifically update the Citi Field Beer List, as well as talk about what’s going on in other parks.  If you’re a beer fan of a non-NY baseball team and feel like helping me out, drop me an email.

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Baseball Is A Collection of Sprints, Not a Marathon

Baseball statistics have come a long way.  We have a ton of information at our fingertips and are able to perform some pretty awesome analysis of baseball players.  This includes things like projections, trying to figure out which pitchers were victims of bad luck and fielding, and which hitters are having some unsustainable success.   However, baseball is an elaborate game.  You can do all this work, analyze all these players, and have a pretty good idea of what should happen over a large sample of data and still have completely no idea what’s going to happen in any given moment.  The cliche is that baseball is a marathon and not a sprint, but truthfully it’s probably like a whole bunch of sprints crammed together.  You can make some pretty good educated guesses about who’s going to win the marathon, but each individual sprint is pretty much a crap shoot.

 

Ultimately everyone wants to see their team win the marathon, but most of the enjoyment comes from watching them win some of those individual sprints.  A thrilling pitching matchup or a walk-off home run can be as exciting in 2012 as it was in 2006, or 1986.  This is sort of the baseball opposite of missing the forest for the trees.  We can get so focused on which teams are the best in a division or which individual players are the best that we miss that sometimes things happen in the individual games and matchups that are awesome and fun to watch.  It doesn’t matter that Andres Torres may not be a very good major leaguer; he can still go 3-4 in one game with two home runs.  Mike Pelfrey’s barely an above average pitcher, but he’s capable of pitching a complete game with 3 hits.  This is especially true in April and May when you’ve just gotten into the forest and trying to figure out what the whole place looks like is just silly; relax and look at the trees!

 

Even the 1962 Mets played some thrilling games.  That’s the beauty of baseball.  Maybe Santana comes back rejuvenated and strikes out every batter he faces on the way to a Mets playoff berth.  Maybe adjusting the walls make no difference and the Mets struggle to hit for power.  Either way I promise you there will be fun Mets baseball this summer.  At least 162 magical opportunities to see something you haven’t seen before.   Who knows, maybe this is the year the Mets finally pitch that illusive no-hitter.  Would you want to miss it because you have the Mets penciled in for last place and decided to spend your Saturday afternoon in June at the zoo?

 

 

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Mets: Bucking the Narrative since 2000

Beat writers and columnists covering a team often look for compelling stories to talk about over a long season.  Bloggers and fans do this as well, although to a lesser extent and they’re less likely to look for off the field drama to drive a narrative. I’ve always been fascinated by some of the parallels and story lines you can draw from baseball. However it seems like lately every great story set-up the Mets stumble into fails to produce fruit.

 

In 1999 the storyline was that no one in the NL East, specifically the Mets, could beat the Braves.  The Mets fell behind and ultimately needed a game 163 just to make the playoffs.  When they met the Braves in the NLCS, the storyline was affirmed as the Mets fell to the Braves in six games.  The season ended on a Kenny Rogers based-loaded walk, reaffirming what Yankees fans already knew about him; that he couldn’t win in New York.

 

The 2000 season featured the Roger Clemens bean-ball incident, where Clemens hit Mike Piazza in the head and Piazza, and most fans, clearly felt was intentional.  The two teams met in the World Series, with Clemens starting game two on the mound for the Yankees.  It was the perfect setup for Piazza to get his revenge and carry the Mets to a championship over Clemens and the Yankees.  Instead, Clemens flung a shard of broken bat at Piazza and the Mets lost the game and the series.

 

The end of the 2001 season found the Mets in the center of the 9/11 tragedy.   Piazza’s home run in the first game back in New York could’ve been a catalyst to lead the Mets back into the playoff race and a third consecutive trip to the playoffs.  Instead they won the game but fell out of the race soon after.

 

In 2006 the Mets had the best record on the majors and went up against a barely above .500 Cardinals team in the NLCS, but there was no magical storyline.  Carlos Beltran absolutely destroyed them, again, in a losing effort.  Cliff Floyd pinch hit in what could’ve been a Kirk Gibson moment with him barely being able to run but at bat as the winning run. This was after the amazing Endy Chavez catch over the wall to rob Rolen and double-up Edmonds game.  That play could’ve gone on to be one of the most amazing moments in postseason history had it led to a victory.  Chavez had a chance to break open the game himself in the bottom of that same inning, and failed to do so.  No magical endings to this one.

 

2007, and 2008, were the real start of the negative narratives.  The talk was about collapses, devastation, and injury. Shea Stadium didn’t end with a bang, in fact that failed Endy Chavez game was the last one ever played in the park.  Citi Field didn’t open with a bang either.  Injuries piled up and the Mets crumbled under all the mess, both on the field and off.

 

So what’s the story for 2012?  What’s the magical journey for the Mets?  The one I’m hoping for is the New York Giants parallel.  A team given no chance to beat Philly that’s dealt with a lot of injuries despite actually having some talent.

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Daniel Murphy is Pure Chaos

Baseball players don’t have enough cool nicknames.  So when Ted Berg suggested, via Ike Davis, that “Pure Chaos” would be a good nickname for Daniel Murphy I decided to run with it.   It may not describe his hitting style, but I do think it applies to his general approach to the game.  Before you say anything, The Irish Hammer does not count as a nickname.

 

Howie Rose: “Coming up in the bottom of the inning for the Mets: Niese, Tejada and Pure Chaos.”

 

Sports Radio Update Guy: “It was all Pure Chaos at Citi Field last night, as the Mets walloped the Phillies eight to one.”
Daniel Murphy's Nickname is Pure Chaos

 

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The Islanders Battle For Contention

John Tavares celebrates a goalFootball is over and it’s still nearly two weeks until pitchers and catchers report and even longer before baseball games start. In the meantime I’m going to enjoy some New York Islanders hockey. Last night they held off the Flyers for a 1-0 shootout win. Evgeni Nabokov played an amazing game in goal, blocking all 45 shots and he always seemed to be in exactly the right place.

 

The Islanders are not one of the top teams in the league, but luckily the NHL takes the top 16 teams into the playoffs. The Islanders are not currently one of those 16, but they’re starting to make a push at it. They currently sit in 11th, 9 points behind the 8th place Ottawa Senators. However they’ve played four less games than them, and still play them head to head. In essence this means the Islanders actually control their own destiny, although there are still too many games left to break it down like that.

 

Can they do it? They certainly can, although it still remains a long shot. They would need to eliminate the extended periods of time in which they’re just not playing very well. They got away with one last night, but Nabokov will not always be perfect. On the other hand, John Tavares had very little to do with this victory and stealing a game when he’s not at his best is a good way to get winning streaks going.

 

The Islanders may not be talented enough to maintain the level of play they need for long enough to make the playoffs, but they’re still quite a fun bunch to watch. They’re playing some thrilling games and John Tavares is one of the best players in the league. Still, long shots occasionally do come through, and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see the Islanders play good enough hockey to leapfrog some other teams that also aren’t great at hockey. Either way they’ll provide some good entertainment to bridge the gap to baseball.

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It’s All About The Giants..But Not For Long

This weekend is about the New York Giants.  It’s about the Super Bowl, and a championship.  It’s about perhaps a parade on Tuesday and random rankings of Eli Manning among the greatest QBs in the game today.

 

So good luck to the Giants.  I’m looking forward to this game, and like so many so-called experts on Twitter, blogs, radio and tv, I’m going to give you my meaningless prediction.  30-16 Giants.  It’ll seem closer than that though.  The Giants will score early in the second half to go up 23-13, and the Patriots will answer with a field goal.  The next score will be halfway through the fourth quarter when Tom Brady is picked off deep in his own zone.   He’ll then turn the ball over on downs on the Giants 44 yard line, and Eli will run out the clock slowly driving down the field and taking a knee.

 

The Giants, and NY and NJ, will celebrate.  The Senate will drink NY beers bought by New England politicians.  There will be a parade.  Then, despite five other local sports teams playing professional sports, all eyes will turn to baseball.  We’ll tick into single digits of days remaining until pitchers and catchers report.

 

And it can’t come soon enough. Let’s Go Mets!