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Some Random Math About Bay and 2012

The Mets offense has the potential to be pretty excellent next year.  That next level to ‘really excellent’ depends a lot on Jason Bay.  He’s shown some improvement lately, perhaps there were lingering effects of the concussion that he didn’t even realize.  Still, he’s been pretty bad overall.   I think how well Jason Bay plays the rest of 2011 will go a long way towards how the media feels about the Mets in 2012. I’m proposing a direct relationship between Jason Bay’s home run total through the rest of the season, and the Mets predicted win total in 2012.

 

He’s got 9 right now.  11 seems a stretch, but if he got to 20 I feel like people would proclaim him ‘back’.  I’ll set that as the absolute ceiling, and say it equates to 89 wins.   Each home run less than that will be worth 1 win.  If he doesn’t hit another, the Mets will be predicted to win 78.  If he hits 5 to finish with 14, 83 wins.

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Equipment Drive, Google Plus, Hurricane

What’s going on around Metsopotamia?

 

The Mets are running an equipment drive.  If you’ve got some stuff, bring it by!

 

EQUIPMENT COLLECTION DRIVE:

To support the growth of youth baseball and softball, the Baseball Tomorrow Fund (BTF) has teamed up with Major League Baseball Clubs to organize equipment collection drives across the United States. This season, the Mets will once again team up with the BTF to assist local youth baseball and softball organizations by collecting new and used baseball equipment prior to the game on Saturday, August 27.

 

During the past five seasons, the Mets have collected bats, gloves, balls, spikes, uniforms, catcher’s gear for the Greater New York Sandlot Athletic Alliance, who distribute the donations to area youth baseball organizations. This year, we hope to increase our donations significantly with the help of our loyal fans.

 

Please bring any equipment that you plan to donate to Citi Field when the Mets host the Atlanta Braves on August 27 at 4:10 p.m. Donation stations will be open two and a half hours prior to the start of the game outside of the Jackie Robinson Rotunda. Your generosity is greatly appreciated. On behalf of the Mets, we thank you for your support.

 

No word on if the Mets will reschedule the game Sunday that’s likely to be rained out.  It’s possible they could play it Saturday as part of a doubleheader if they can work it out with Fox.  The Mets are under no obligation to make this easy for the Braves, who forced the Mets into a doubleheader when they were dealing with some pitching shortages in April due to another double header a day earlier.

 

The Mets community is growing on Google Plus.  It’s looking like a fun little place to be able to share posts and ideas.  I think Google may have something here.  You can join and add me to your circles here.

 

 

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The Positives of Pelfrey as Closer Talk

There are good things to be inferred by the Pelfrey as closer talk. Him actually pitching as a closer is a bad idea; you can’t replace those 200 innings he pitches and the closer position is extremely overrated. Still, it’s good to see the Mets trying to think of solutions to make this team better in 2012. Many of the thoughts will be bad ones like this, but some of them may turn out to be great ideas that help the Mets become more competitive in the future. It’s nice to have guys in charge trying to come up with each and every way to make the Mets a better baseball team.

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Free Falling

The Mets have been in a free fall, plummeting towards worthlessness and erasing all the good will they achieved this season. It’s not totally their fault; They’ve been struck with a lot of injuries, and Sandy Alderson traded two expendable, but useful, parts for prospects once it was obvious the Mets weren’t going to make a real run at the playoffs. Still, despite the occasional fight they show, they’ve also showed a fair amount of looking flat too. They misplay balls, take bad approaches at the plate, and make bad decisions.

Take last night’s game. The Mets got guys on bases with plenty of opportunity, and turned around and let Worley off the hook. They refused to swing the bat and struck out five times looking, all with runners in scoring position. They worked Worley, but as soon as they gave up the lead they made 12 consecutive outs letting Worley go deeper in the game than he probably should’ve. They misplayed balls in the outfield and made bad throws.

This isn’t to say the Mets have quit. They look more depressed than disinterested. They press and make desperation plays or throws, or look almost fearful at the plate. The word I would use is lost. They look like they don’t know what to do, and have lost some of the routine and instinct that guides most baseball play in an effort to try to do too much.

You can see the effects already. People talk about the Mets as if they’re a horrible disaster of a team, despite playing competitively for a good chunk of the year. The stories about financial disaster are back, false rumors about not being able to spend money and sign players. They’re writing off 2012 without having any idea what will happen with the prospects or free agents this offseason.

Just like the Mets bounced back from 5-13 early, they’ll bounce back from this as well. They won’t play this badly the rest of the way, and that last month will set a tone and provide a lot of info about the off-season direction they need to take. But they have erased much of the goodwill they got for playing hard and being resilient during the midseason. Some may write a positive story overall about the season, but most will dismiss the Mets as anything worth thinking about no matter how this season ends.

 

Faith and Fear in Flushing also has a post today, as probably many Mets bloggers do, about free falling and not being able to get up.  Great minds thinking alike and all that.

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Time To Put Lucas Duda in Right Field

Just last week I suggested the Mets bring up Fernando Martinez to get some playing time at the major league level.  This week he’s returned to the DL.   Maybe the guy will eventually stay healthy, but right now he’s not an option. 

Terry Collins mentioned getting Lucas Duda some playing time in right field, and now seems like the time.   One of the Mets other almost ready prospects,  Kirk Nieuwenhuis, is also on the Dl rendering another RF option unavailable.  These are two of the probable candidates for Duda to compete with in Spring Training for a job in 2012 ,and right now it looks like he’s got the leg up having been successful at the major league level, and having stayed healthy. 

I don’t really care to see a ton of Scott Hairston, Jason Pridie or Mike Baxter.  Nick Evans is another guy that seems like he’d like to compete for that 2012 RF job but probably won’t be a real candidate.  Evans can play first at least, and I’d rather Evans get those AB than the other bench guys, but the Mets might as well give Duda an extra month or reps in the outfield with an eye on 2012.   He’s definitely starting to look like a solid hitter that will need a position for the future.

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The Dilemma ofMeaningless West Coast Baseball

The Mets are on the west coast to play the San Diego Padres and tonight and tomorrow the game doesn’t start until after 10.  I’m not usually one to complain about this; normally I like the quiet nights when everything else has been done for the day and there is nothing left to do but sacrifice sleep to the Mets.

But this Mets team is out of the playoffs.  The Padres are out of the playoffs.  These games have almost no meaning and the Mets are missing some of their most watchable stars to injuries.  Additionally it’s early enough that I don’t feel the panic of “Pretty soon there will be no more baseball games, so I better savor every one” that comes mid-September.  There are still over a month worth of games to watch and they’ll happen at much better hours of the day and the Mets aren’t even playing well right now. 

So while baseball, particularly Mets baseball, is always worth watching, if there was a game or series to skip and get other things done, it’s this one.

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Get Me Fernando Martinez

Photo by Michael Baron

It’s not like we’re expecting Mike Baxter, Nick Evans, or Scott Hairston to be the solution in right field, so why not bring up our oft-injured forgotten prospect Fernando Martinez?  He’s back from his latest injury, is already on the 40-man roster, and has already had his option burned for this year.  He’s 11/36 with 2 walks, 1 HR and 5 doubles since returning to Buffalo.

I had wondered if he may be out of options.  The rule is a little confusing, but it seems to state that a player is on optional assignment in any year that he is on the 40 man roster but spends 20 or more days in the minors.  This would apply to 2011,2010, and 2009 for Martinez.  A player may be optioned a fourth season if he has less than five years of professional experience.  Martinez first year of pro ball was in 2006 at 17 with three different Mets minor league teams, which would give him six years of experience, so it seems like he cannot be optioned next year.  A little digging seems to find an interview with Paul DePodesta saying he does have another option for next year, so it’s probably not D-Day for him yet.  It looks like him being injured in the majors in 2009 prevented it from counting as an option year.  If you’re curious about which players do and do not have options, there appears to be a handy little list right here by tpgmets.

Still, it’s growing close and 2012 will be the last season you can easily bring him up and down.    Obviously the biggest concern is injuries keeping him from getting full seasons of plate appearances in the minors.  He’s never played 100 games in a season, although if he doesn’t have another injury this season he will.   He can prove he’s healthy just as easily in the majors as in the minors, and it seems like giving him the opportunity to prove he’s ready is pretty much win-win for the Mets.

Trading him is certainly an option too, but he’s had DL stints this year and hasn’t exactly destroyed AAA although his .766 OPS isn’t bad either.  You’d basically be trading low, given his history, unless he shows you something through the rest of the season.  The best way for that to happen is for him to show it at the major league level where it has the most clout.  If he can hit major league pitching over the next six weeks in the majors, it only increases his value and the options Alderson will have regarding him.

As the Mets injuries pile up and they continue to prove they’re not going to make a significant break with .500 and legitimately chase the Braves, it seems like it’s in everyone’s best interest to promote Fernando Martinez to the big club.   At this point I’d suggest just releasing Willie Harris, who isn’t very good and isn’t part of a solution.

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Almost Every Met Is/Was Injured

Of all the players that have been on the major league roster this year for the Mets, only four of the opening 25 guys have missed no time with the Mets.

Capuano
Dickey
Niese
Pelfrey

All four of those are starting pitchers. 

Update 8/24: Looks like Niese makes it three.

Hairston, Byrdak, Thole, and Harris only missed a couple of days due to bereavement, paternity or foul balls.

And three more got a late start, but have been here since mid-April

Isringhausen – Delayed until 4/11
Gee –  First Start April 17th
Turner – Up since the 19th of April

The Mets actually traded two of their healthier players.

Beltran – excepting brief bout of flu
Rodriguez

Of particular note here is the position players.  Two of the bench guys, Hairston and Harris, have stayed healthy all season and Thole is the only regular.  Justin Turner, despite playing through some bruised thumbs, was added to the roster quickly and has remained on the field throughout.  Everyone else has gone to or from the minors or disabled list, or to another team. 

I’d say that’s probably a big factor in why the Mets have only around a .500 record on the season.

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Proud To Be A Mets Fan

Thrilling come-back win by the Mets. Just when you’re ready to eulogize and bury the team, when you expect them to spiral out of control and crash and burn when two of the best hitters in the league go down, the backups step up and stage an Amazin’ win.  The Mets basically erase themselves from playoff contention and the most exciting player in the game is on the shelf leading many to believe it’s time to tune out, and then they turn around and remind everyone that they’re stilling playing baseball.  They remind us that whether or not we believe in them, they believe in themselves.  It doesn’t matter if we think they’re worth watching, because they think it’s worth playing.

It’s all about depth sometimes.  One of the reasons the Mets have been able to stay afloat through all these injuries is that they have had suitable prospects and veterans that aren’t terrible to step in and contribute to winning baseball.  That none of the injuries, barring one, have been to the rotation has also helped since the Mets don’t really have as much depth there.

The Mets have sustained a massive amount of injuries, but they still have enough talent and depth to win ballgames as much as they lose them.  They will likely stick around .500 the rest of the way because right now they’re missing those players that would keep them winning consistently, although anything is certainly possible. What is pretty certain is that the Mets are creating a lot of options for Sandy Alderson in 2012.  The Mets have guys up and down their 40 man roster, and beyond, who have been proving they can be part of a winning baseball team.

So sure, one win is hardly cause for much celebration and doesn’t change anything in the bigger picture, but it still feels good.  It’s not just about winning sometimes and it doesn’t matter what’s going on outside of the stadium or in the owner’s box.  These 25 men on the field, and their coaches, are giving it their all and it’s been fun to watch.   They’re not likely to ride home in a parade, but in 2011 I’m proud to be a Mets fan.

edit: Looks like Faith and Fear in Flushing is proud to be a fan of this team as well.

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Redirecting the Optimism

I don’t quite want to eulogize the Mets just yet.  While the chances of making the playoffs just went on the DL with little hope of returning this season, there is still baseball that’s being played, and out of the playoffs is not the same as no longer playing.  There will be plenty of time to deconstruct and over-analyze 2011 in the offseason, while we’re rooting against all those evil teams that made the playoffs.

 

So where do we direct that optimism that failed us in 2011?  For starters, the rookies and prospects that will get some extra time will go a long way towards being able to make informed decisions about the 2012 roster.  How feasible is Lucas Duda going to be?  Has Josh Thole rebounded from a poor beginning to the point that we don’t need to look at other options?   There are enough guys that will get some playing time to have a lot of options for the future.

 

The other place to direct the optimism is at the teams we hate.  The Phillies, despite the pitching, tend to look like they can be had if the opposing team’s pitching is on.  Given that they may have to face the Giants and the Braves, they certainly could be looking at an early exit from the playoffs if they hit a hot pitcher in a short series.  The Yankees look more well rounded than the Phillies, but they also seem to lack a certain depth that may leave them exposed if everything is not clicking when they reach the playoffs.

 

Personally I’m rooting for Carlos Beltran and the Giants over the Red Sox in the World Series.