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Divisions Aren’t Won in December

I believe it’s my job to try to spin Cliff Lee signing with the Phillies as not the end of the world. Start with this Hardball Talk article. Although it’s no secret that Cliff Lee is light years better than Kyle Kendrick or whoever ends up being bumped (Blanton via trade?) from the rotation as a result of the signing.

The article by Matthew Pouliot does a good job breaking down some of the specific concerns with the Phillies, particularly on the offensive side and in the bullpen. World Series, or even division titles, are not won in December. You still have to play the games. Things change drastically from year to year. Players who have been injured don’t stay injured. Players who are healthy don’t stay healthy. Players get older. Players have good years and bad. The Mets underperformed and missed by one game in 2007 and responded by adding the best pitcher in baseball..and somehow didn’t get any better.

The other argument is flexibility. Alderson’s motto so far has been to create flexibility for the Mets to be able to adapt and fix holes as they come. To sign free agents they need when they need them. Overreacting to an acquisition by the opposition and throwing out the philosophy two months in would be silly. The Phillies are now probably the definition of inflexible. Their payroll is so bulging people are reporting that they’re going to have to jettison payroll, probably by trading Joe Blanton. Their pitching depth is poor, so that if anything happens to their starting four, the dropoff is great. Their entire offense is old, neither corner outfield spot projects to come close to being above average, and they’ve lost Jason Werth.

The Mets on the other hand will have the ability, and desire, to add a player by the trading deadline to fix holes. They’ll be getting Johan Santana back. They’ll know if their underperforming core has raised it’s game. It’s entirely likely that the Mets offense will be better than the Phillies. While the Mets have rotational depth issues as well to start the season, Dickey, Niese and Pelfrey look to be very solid contributors. Sandy Alderson has repeatedly stated that he loves to make midseason moves, and he’s confirmed that he’ll have the flexibility to do so. Maybe this is the year the Mets go 40-15 down the stretch and surge into the postseason.

As the next couple of years go by, the Mets will get more and more flexible, while the Phillies will mostly be stuck with aging players making a lot of money. Cliff Lee certainly helps their chances in 2011, but it also helps accelerate their demise as repeat divisional champions.

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Sandy Alderson’s First Mets Test

Sandy Alderson has arrived at the baseball winter meetings, and with it comes his first real test as Mets GM. So far the only thing he’s done this year is talk and deal with some expiring contracts and options.  With most of that out of the way it’s time to start building the team for 2011, and he’s suggested he’ll return from Orlando with some new players when the Winter Meetings are over.

Jeff Francis Climbing the Coors Field Steps
Jeff Francis Climbing the Coors Field Steps

Reports on what type of money and players Sandy will be looking for vary, but reading between the lines seems to suggest that he’s looking for short contracts and isn’t looking to overpay anyone, particularly if they’re not a given to help out. So with the Mets needing at least two starting pitchers (Under the assumption that Santana won’t be ready for Opening Day, Oliver Perez is not getting a spot, and the prospects will be seasoning in Buffalo) it looks like Sandy is looking for that pitcher shrouded in doubt, and possibly coming off an njury, to bring in.  They’ve already been linked to Chris Young and Jeff Francis, so it does appear Sandy is on the right track.

Based on what’s leaked this coming week, who the Mets are linked to, who Sandy talks to and who he signs to be a New York Met next year will be the first thing we really get to judge our new general manager on.  First impressions are pretty important and Mets fans are likely to be peeved if the guy Alderson brings back is someone like Bruce Chen.  Scrolling through the free agent list does turn up some interesting names with various degrees of set-backs, and it’ll be interesting to see who the Mets feel can contribute in the future.

Despite the nature of the fans to overreact to a signing Alderson may or may not make during the Winter Meetings, what is important is that it contributes to winning.  Many of the same people that wanted Omar Minaya fired on the spot for giving a minor league deal to R.A. Dickey are now talking about giving Dickey an extension. Hopefully Sandy takes a good hard look at what’s available, opens a dialogue with a half dozen different agents, and sets the stage for the Mets to have an excellent rotation, and team, in 2011.  I’m looking forward to seeing what happens.

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AL Cy Young: Do Wins Matter?

Let us start with a common argument during September that will crop up again soon once the Cy Young awards are given out. How do we value C.C. Sabathia’s win total against Felix Hernandez pretty much putting up better numbers in virtually every important statistic? Sabathia was 21-7 with a 3.18 ERA. Hernandez was 13-12 with a 2.27 ERA. Wins have historically been the benchmark pitchers are judged by, but perhaps that’s not totally fair. Pitchers cannot win games, except in the NL with a bat. On the simplest level a baseball game is won by the team that scores more runs than the other team. A pitcher only can affect half of this.

While the voting for Cy Young is a little less of a sham than the Gold Gloves, there is always big disagreement over who the best pitcher is, and how to figure it out. I’d definitely be in favor of ironing out specific rules as to how the voters should think about the award, or which stats are more important. Should the award go the guy that threw the ball the best? That fooled the most hitters? That was the “most valuable” pitcher? One of the biggest problems is that every voter defines the award differently, and is actually voting for different things.

It should be obvious to most people that the Yankees scored a ton more runs than the Mariners, and as a result C.C. Sabathia had a better chance to win games. If Felix Hernandez had been on the Yankees, he would’ve won more games, but would he have won eight more to match Sabathia’s 21? Does it even matter? I think if these two pitchers swapped team, we’d be having no debate that King Felix was better in 2010, but there is no way to measure that. It’s as fruitless as trying to nail down exactly how a pitcher will do before the season. Hernandez would have to face different batters, with different approaches and with different scouting reports. He wouldn’t have to face the Yankees three times and would be able to face the weak Mariners lineup.

Some, such as Michael Kay, suggest that C.C. Sabathia’s numbers were hurt because of something called “pitching to the score.” It is inferred that Sabathia is capable to adjusting to the game and if his team scores 2, he’ll let up 1, but if they score 8 he’ll be okay with letting them score 6. The idea being that if the Yankees were up 8-1, he was less careful about his pitches. The stress of the game may be less, but Sabathia is not just chucking it down the middle of the plate and hoping a fielder catches it. Run support plays a huge role in whether or not a pitcher wins a game, and C.C. Sabathia got 5.89 runs a game to Felix Hernandez’s 3.07. The Yankees only scored less than 4 runs 7 times during Sabathia’s starts. The Mariners scored less than 4 runs 19 times during Hernandez’s starts.

It certainly makes sense that pitchers will pitch differently based on the score of the game. The margin for error is greater in a blowout, and it’s possible that a pitcher will risk a pitch catching a little more of the plate to avoid possibly walking a batter and giving the opposing team more chances for a big inning. If we look at games Sabathia pitched badly in, do they suggest that he let up a lot of meaningless runs that don’t necessarily mean he was pitching badly? Sabathia was 1-4 in 7 starts when he allowed 5 or more earned runs. Of those games, one he left with a huge lead and the bullpen exploded to give him a no-decision. You could reasonable claim that he wasn’t worried about the score and may have relaxed and let batters put good swings on balls. Maybe. The other no-decision was Opening Day, where he left a tight game with a one run lead and a batter on third that scored. In the game he won against the White Sox he let up all the runs early and the Yankees didn’t take a big lead until later in the game. The numbers just don’t support that he was pitching to the score.

Felix Hernandez had only 3 games where he let up 5 or more runs. He lost all three of them; his team never bailing him out when he struggled. He had one more game where he allowed 4 runs, and lost that one as well. Every other game he allowed 3 runs or less. He left three separate games with the score 0-0, one after 7 innings, one after 8 innings and one after 9. He faced the feared Yankees lineup three times, shutting them out twice and allowing one run over 26 innings and two complete games. He led the league in innings pitched, and in hits per nine innings. He had 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings for a total of 232. He was first in pitching WAR.

Ultimately I do believe that wins matter. They are the very essence of what a baseball game is. I do believe that there are levels of effort, and that it’s possible to take your foot off the gas occasionally during a long season, and that it’s possible to bare down and battle when you need to, in clutch situations. Wins don’t play a part in the 2010 AL Cy Young award however, Felix Hernandez is simply in a different class as far as pitchers go. The next best pitcher may have been David Price of the Rays, who’s numbers come a lot closer to Hernandez’s, but still fall short.

I’ve clearly shown here that I favor King Felix for the award, but what will the writers pick? That it’s even a discussion suggests to me that at least some voters are going to value the wins over Hernandez’s clearly superior stats. I suspect these voters will vote David Price first, Sabathia second, and Hernandez third. Others may look at the stats and vote Hernandez, Price, Sabathia. Or even another pitcher I haven’t mentioned here. I think when the votes are tallied that David Price will come out ahead. So that’s my vote and prediction. We shall soon see.

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How to Watch the Final 22 Mets Games

Baseball is by far my favorite sport.  I could never see another day of any other sport and I wouldn’t really miss it, but I’m going through baseball withdrawal by Thanksgiving.  So I’ll be watching most of the next 22 Mets games, and even when I change the channel on Sunday’s to the Giants, I’ll probably flip back and forth to watch baseball.

However, the games mean absolutely nothing and Jerry Manuel continues to do mind-numbingly stupid things with the roster, so how do I stay interested?  I try to take each part of the game and watch it for the game, and the situation, at hand with no care or worry about what it means to the overall season.  R.A. Dickey is pitching, so I’ll watch him dazzle with his two knuckleballs.  I don’t worry about his double digit win total, his contract status for next year, whether or not this is a one-year wonder or anything like that.  There will be months and months of that sort of debate, but for now there are only 22 Mets game left and I’ll enjoy each one for what they are; baseball games.

Obviously watching some of the rookies getting their shot at the majors is something to look at.  Duda and Tejada are two that look mostly overmatched and unready, but Davis is again putting good swings on balls and launching monstrous home runs.  Jon Niese may be struggling down the stretch, but it’ll be interesting to see if he can fight through it for a couple more starts to finish off what’s been a terrific rookie campaign.  Thole’s looking like a solid catcher option for next year, and we’re going to get more looks at Mejia and Gee as well.

Career milestones are another avenue to root for.  David Wright and Jose Reyes, once he returns from the oblique strain, are reaching territory rarely achieved in Mets history.  They’re cementing their places as some of the greatest Mets to wear the uniform.  Wright needs two RBI to tie Mike Piazza for second all-time as Met.  Three game-winning RBI to tie Piazza for first.  He’s second on the career list for runs scored, and Reyes is fourth and only three runs behind him.  Reyes is the all-time Mets leader with 329 stolen bases and increases his lead with every swipe.  Wright and Reyes are 4th and 6th respectively in hits.  These guys are some of the best Mets to ever play the game and they’re playing right here, right now.

So while the Mets may be inches from elimination, there is still a lot to be excited about while watching these final 22 games.  Before you know it the season will be over and you’ll be wishing you could watch Niese drop one last curveball on a unsuspecting hitter, or see David Wright crush one more fastball.

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I Predict an Oliver Perez Sighting Tonight

I know no one wants to hear it, but I’m suspecting we may see Oliver Perez tonight, and definitely before the end of the road trip. Here’s a couple of reasons why:

1. He hasn’t pitched in ages.

2. reports that he’s “looking better” (I don’t know how this can be when he hasn’t actually faced batters)

3. The Mets have already not lost this series, and 2 road wins a trip is normal. Could be thinking it’s house money at this point?

4. Bullpen tired from yesterday.

5. B.S. about missing-Frankie need to get more value from everyone else.

At this point, with the Mets virtually eliminating and sending subtle signs that they’re very aware of this, it might be time to try to get Perez into a state where you might be able to raise his value such that an opposing GM may consider trading for him if they’ve had a couple of beers. It’s in the Mets best interest to play him since his value cannot go down, but if they could tease some modicum of success out of him down the stretch, or in Spring Training next year, they might be able to trade him for a long-shot AAA player or a down on his luck reliever.

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Oliver Perez’s “Changeup”

Isn’t this changeup, by definition, not a changeup?

This changeup defies its definition
This changeup defies its definition

And that seems to be the crux of the problem with Oliver Perez.  How is gameday classifying that pitch as a changeup?  I understand Oliver Perez mostly sucks this year.  It seems like pitch selections like this is the main reason, and I don’t see how they didn’t have him working on this while he was in rehab, or how they promoted him again without fixing it.

I’m no Pitch F/X expert, but I know that Perez should be throwing this pitch slower.  He throws his fastball around 88-89, which you hope would build up over time, but regardless, you have to throw the changeup no higher than 80mph if this is the case.  He does have a slider that’s in the 70s for the offspeed part of his game, but he’s stopped throwing the curve entirely this year.

Oliver’s biggest problem does not seem to be his velocity, although you would like that to be higher.  His mechanics have never been good, which accounts for a lot of fluctuation at times in his pitches and may be the cause of that missing 2mph on his fastball.  Still, the biggest issue here seems to be pitch selection and game plan.  We know he’s billed as a head case, but I’m sure those accounts are exaggerated.  What he should’ve been working on is selecting his pitches better and setting up hitters.  If he’s capable of throwing so many pitches, slider, curveball, fastball, 4-seam fastball, changeup, and cutter, he’s capable of setting up hitters to look foolish.  He’s got enough command of those pitches that he can keep batters from sitting on the 88mph fastball.

It’s not enough to just say he’s a lost cause and dismiss him.  You can’t excuse Dan Warthen or Rod Barajas because Ollie’s a head case.  He’s had success before, and coaching/selection is their job.  How is Oliver Perez still doing things like throwing a fastball and changeup at the same speed to the same batter?  Am I missing something?  If you’ve got some advanced knowledge of pitching/pitches that you can share, please pass it along.  I find it hard to believe that gameday/fangraphs is just guessing at what pitches he’s throwing or that he’s throwing them by accident.

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Is The Mets Road Trip Salvagable?

The Mets have not been playing good baseball lately.  This poor play brings up debate and questions about what exactly the problems are.  Is it an easy fix? Something that takes time, money, or trade? 
Could it be the managing?
Maybe.  Jerry Manuel is not a good manager.  He’s operating as a lame-duck manager and as Steve Popper remarked today, A manager that everyone in the clubhouse suspects is not here for the long haul may lose a little authority in the dealing with long term situations such as standing up to Jose Reyes and being the final authority on if he is in the lineup.  The flip side of this is the question of whether Manuel’s lack of authority in such situations is what led to his job security being as tenous as it is in the first place.
Manuel seems inept at managing road games or close games, often burning outs with useless bunts, refusing to use his best pitchers on the road or burning through the bullpen at record pace.  Still, the Mets have the talent and ability to win games, and if enough games are going to come down to the point where they are won or lost on a misguided bunt call in the third inning, the Mets probably won’t win enough games for it to matter.
Is it the offense?
Some fans are thinking so.  Some seem to have given up on Beltran and Bay, and point out that the pitching has rarely kept the Mets out of games.  Surely if players like Bay continue to underperform, the Mets will not win.  However it’s probably safer to say Jason Bay will hit more like the 1000 games before he became a Met, than the 90 or so this year.  Beltran has returned, one of the most talented players in the game, and while we’re still not sure what effect the brace and lingering bone bruises are going to have on his overall play it’s safe to say he’s a solid upgrade over Jeff Francoeur.  Castillo will return soon and put up a respectable OBP that provides more run scoring opportunities.  Reyes will be back in the lineup and allow us to send Tejada back to Buffalo for more seasoning.   It’s easy to get worked up over slumps and scoring droughts, but the Mets offense overall is pretty good. 
How about the pitching?
Behind Johan, one of the best second half pitchers ever, the Mets currently have Pelfrey, Niese, Dickey and Takahashi.  Dickey has been wonderful, and Niese is contributing as well.  Mike Pelfrey’s struggling with a little bit of a slump, but he’ll fight out of it and win games for the Mets in the second half.  Takahashi has struggled, looking more suited for a long relief type role out of the bullpen.  This would be the obvious place to upgrade on the team, and rumors are that Omar is indeed looking for something that won’t cost the farm, but I’m not convinced the pitching is keeping the Mets out of games.  In fact they’ve been in most games, rarely getting blown out or finding themselves down six runs in the seventh inning.  Takahashi has had some bad starts, but he’s also had some good ones.  Johan even had a couple of bad starts in the first half. 
Injuries.
The Mets injuries, coupled with some slumps, are what’s causing the recent struggles.  Some of the other categories may be making it worse such as Jason Bay slumping or Takahashi having a poor outing, but overall it’s the injury to Luis Castillo forcing us to play lesser or unready players in Cora and Tejada.  It’s Reyes slow recovery from the strained oblique.  It’s Beltrans bone bruises keeping him out the entire first half.  Ike Davis went through a typical rookie slump, but after two home runs last night may be coming out of it.  You can’t get much worse than Rod Barajas lately, and he may be forcing Jerry’s hand in using Thole more, who has done nothing but hit while he’s been on the Mets.

 

It’s easy to overreact to slumps and scoring droughts, but the Mets have the talent to make the playoffs this year.   There is a lot of time left, including plenty of games left against the division leading Braves.  Destiny is in their own hands.  Beltran is getting up to speed, Jose Reyes is supposedly just about recovered, and Luis Castillo is set to return by next weekend.  Johan’s a second half pitcher, more help may be on the way, and Ike Davis may rebound from his first major slump a better player.  The second half of the season is going to be very exciting, and I can’t wait.

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These Mets Are Scary

Mets Win
Mets Win

This Mets team can be pretty scary.  I certainly thought they had a chance to be very competitive coming into this year, but it would’ve been hard for anyone to predict it would evolve the way it did.   The team may be the team you’d least want to face in the National League, because you never know what you’re going to get from them, they can hit you from all angles.  People talk about Philadelphia’s offense being scary, but when you get down to it the Phillies are a team built on offense; if you pitch well against them you can win any of the games.

The Mets can baffle a team’s offense on any day.  It could happen via R.A. Dickey’s knuckleball dancing towards the plate, or it could happen with Pelfrey’s dominate sinking fastball.  The next day Jon Niese could unleash his curveball, or Johan Santana could be on the mound with his two Cy Young awards.   The bullpen has also been very good, regularly racking up scoreless innings.  They’ve got some hard throwers, some specialists, and Frankie Rodriguez.

Offensively the Mets have the talent to beat a team in a couple of ways.  They’re capable of hitting big home runs one day, and the next day battering pitching to a tune of 14 runs without a long ball.  They’re aggressive, steal bases, take extra bases on base hits, capitalize on errors and play hard.  They’re capable of coming back from deficits, don’t quit until the game is over, and even if a starting pitcher is shutting them down, they’re capable of waking up against a reliever and winning a game.

They seem to have the right mixture of confidence and cockiness, and all reports suggest they have great clubhouse chemistry. (Winning will do that) Even if they don’t make a trade, it looks like they’ll be getting Carlos Beltran back to the lineup which would be about as big a mid-season acquisition as you can find.  They’re already in prime playoff position, and they’ve got plenty of guys looking to have a better second half including Johan Santana, Jason Bay, Luis Castillo, and Jose Reyes.   This is a team to look out for, and it’s looking like the final series before the All-Star break against the Braves is going to be a big one.

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Mets Slowly Vanquishing Their Demons

The Mets are slowly but surely erasing the negatives of the past few seasons and vanquising their demons into the nether.  They are putting the past behind them and setting it up nicely for a bright future.

David Wright’s Power:  David Wright has already surpassed his home run totals from last year, proving it was just a fluke.  He’s had big home runs, multi-home run games, and some absolute bombs.  Maybe now that the league realizes his power his back they’ll pitch to him a little more tentatively and he’ll be able to cut back on some of the strikeouts.

David Wright, split seconds from launching a 2-run home run in Camden Yards
David Wright, split seconds from launching a 2-run home run in Camden Yards
 Sloppy Play: Few losses were more gut-wrenching than the Castillo dropped pop-up, but so far this year the Mets have played very solid defense all around.  Jason Bay is a very good outfielder, with good instincts.  Angel Pagan has been playing a good centerfield and has stopped making blunders; who else to vanquish Mets demons than an Angel?  Blanco throws out just about everybody that tries to steal on him, and the infield defense is much improved, especially with a lefty first baseman that isn’t learning the position for the first time in Ike Davis.

Jose Reyes: Jose Reyes is back.  He’s stealing bases, he’s lacing triples into the gaps, he’s hitting the ball out.  He’s terrorizing pitchers and reasserting that he’s one of the most exciting players in this game.  He’s smiling and having fun, and if there is any singular factor that’s making this clubhouse better than it was last year, it’s Jose Reyes’ infectious baseball attitude.   I’m still waiting for more home run handshakes though.

Citi Field: No longer is Citi Field where home runs go to die.  If Citi Field was intimidating Mets hitters, it no longer is.  The Mets have had plenty of home runs at home, and have had some fun walk-off homers.   The park is starting to feel like home and it’s become a big asset to the Mets, who have more home wins than anyone in the majors.  It’s better decorated this year as well.

The Bullpen: The bullpen has been a sore spot for a while, being one of the biggest parts of the two collapses.  So far the bullpen looks pretty solid.  Francisco Rodriguez makes things a little shaky sometimes, but he gets the job done.  There is still a state of flux with Takahashi and Mejia but the bullpen has come through, even more so now that the starters have been able to keep them from being overworked.  The arms and talent are there, so it’s no longer about trying to find someone, anyone, that can do the job.  As the season rolls on and the rotation gets more settling with Takahashi, Maine and/or Perez coming back and contributing, or acquiring another quality starter, the roles in the bullpen will become a little more settled and we’ll know who we can trust.  One things for sure though, we no longer think the game is doomed when the bullpen gets into it, and this knowledge probably helps the offense know they don’t have to score a billion more runs as well.

The Mets are a good solid team.  There are plenty of holes they could patch up, plenty of places to improve, and plenty of losses that will happen.  This team seems to have turned the corner and put the past behind them so that when things aren’t going as perfectly as they are now, I trust that the good times will return and that the Mets will be a fun team to watch all season.   They are no more flawed than anyone else in the league, and they’ve got the talent, the resources, and the desire required to make this season a successful one.