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Divisions Aren’t Won in December

I believe it’s my job to try to spin Cliff Lee signing with the Phillies as not the end of the world. Start with this Hardball Talk article. Although it’s no secret that Cliff Lee is light years better than Kyle Kendrick or whoever ends up being bumped (Blanton via trade?) from the rotation as a result of the signing.

The article by Matthew Pouliot does a good job breaking down some of the specific concerns with the Phillies, particularly on the offensive side and in the bullpen. World Series, or even division titles, are not won in December. You still have to play the games. Things change drastically from year to year. Players who have been injured don’t stay injured. Players who are healthy don’t stay healthy. Players get older. Players have good years and bad. The Mets underperformed and missed by one game in 2007 and responded by adding the best pitcher in baseball..and somehow didn’t get any better.

The other argument is flexibility. Alderson’s motto so far has been to create flexibility for the Mets to be able to adapt and fix holes as they come. To sign free agents they need when they need them. Overreacting to an acquisition by the opposition and throwing out the philosophy two months in would be silly. The Phillies are now probably the definition of inflexible. Their payroll is so bulging people are reporting that they’re going to have to jettison payroll, probably by trading Joe Blanton. Their pitching depth is poor, so that if anything happens to their starting four, the dropoff is great. Their entire offense is old, neither corner outfield spot projects to come close to being above average, and they’ve lost Jason Werth.

The Mets on the other hand will have the ability, and desire, to add a player by the trading deadline to fix holes. They’ll be getting Johan Santana back. They’ll know if their underperforming core has raised it’s game. It’s entirely likely that the Mets offense will be better than the Phillies. While the Mets have rotational depth issues as well to start the season, Dickey, Niese and Pelfrey look to be very solid contributors. Sandy Alderson has repeatedly stated that he loves to make midseason moves, and he’s confirmed that he’ll have the flexibility to do so. Maybe this is the year the Mets go 40-15 down the stretch and surge into the postseason.

As the next couple of years go by, the Mets will get more and more flexible, while the Phillies will mostly be stuck with aging players making a lot of money. Cliff Lee certainly helps their chances in 2011, but it also helps accelerate their demise as repeat divisional champions.

December 14th, 2010 by Ceetar in 2011, Baseball, Mets, Pitching, World Series
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Signing Alderson Does Not Mean the Mets are Suddenly Respectible

The search for the next Mets general manager is (almost) over, and for now we don’t have a lot else to talk about.  Unfortunately the most important facts are hidden from us; the candidates’ plan for the future.  Looking at past history is certainly helpful, but what really determines who the best choice is is the game plan that person has to bring the Mets to the World Series.mets

Nothing will dispel the adjectives and storylines currently trending among Mets writers.  We’ve heard broke, dysfunctional, disastrous, cheap, stupid, tyrannical, clueless and many others.  Signing a general manager that’s perceived to be a good choice may quiet that some in the offseason, but that’s only a band aid. If and when the Mets announce their choice this week, the team won’t actually be any better.

This is why signing a guy as a figurehead of autonomy is not the way the Mets should go.  A quiet offseason does nothing for ticket sales or profits.  It’s the actions of the new hire that will do that, and even that’s unlikely until those actions, acquisitions and trades, put up statistics in regular season games and the Mets look like a winning club.  So we can speculate about who is the best choice, but until we see the decisions made, it’s not easy to know that.

Until the Mets are winning, consistently, all those stories people are writing about the Mets being dysfunctional will continue.  You’ll hear people crack jokes about Prevention and Recovery, joke about the Mets doctors, criticize Jeff Wilpon’s apparent involvement in the way things are done and reference Bernie Madoff any time anyone gets more money than is thought to be fair or the Mets don’t sign or talk to a player that someone thinks they need.

Outside of the fanatic fan, us bloggers and tweeters and hard-core followers, most people don’t even know or care who the general manager of the team is.  If the team is exciting, popular, and winning they will come to the stadium.  If it’s not, they won’t.  No GM is a savior; it’s going to take a lot of hard work from everyone all the way down to the 40th guy on the extended roster to get this team back to respectability.  It’s not about names or faces or organizational structure but about winning.  So let’s get this general manager selected and into the office so we can start with the process of building our 2011 World Champion New York Mets.

Jon Heyman is reporting tonight that the Mets have decided on Sandy Alderson.  If this is indeed the case, my point stands: The team is not yet better.  Let’s take the next step and start interviewing smart, talented people to manage the team.  And let’s start keeping some things internal before blabbing it to the media.  Either announce it officially, or don’t tell Heyman, because telling him is as good as announcing it.

October 26th, 2010 by Ceetar in 2010, 2011, Baseball, bloggers, ceetar, championship, Mets, World Series
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Letters to the NL East, Part 5/5

(To read past year’s letters, click here)

Letters to the NL East, Part 0 of 5. (part 0, part 1, part 2, part 3, part 4)

AngryMrMet

Dear New York Mets,

Welcome to the what I like to joke is the second half of the ’09-’10 season.   But it’s time to put the past behind us and move on.  Nothing that happened before today counts for anything, and it’s time to step it up and start taking control of your own destiny.

Last season was a disaster; Let’s not talk about it anymore.  It’s now 2010 and even though we’ve got a couple of nagging injuries, there is hope.  Reyes will be back shortly, Murphy by the end of the month, and hopefully Beltran not too much after that.  The pitchers are healthy and while we’re missing Beltran for too much time, the rest of the offense is actually really capable.  There’s a lot of pressure on the pitching staff right now, but from all accounts you’ve got a chip on your shoulder and are working hard to succeed.  Relish the underdog role and punish the opponent.

Citi Field is amazing and all the changes look great.  Now make the experience inside a memorable one and make me forget that there is a Big Apple Brews or Shake Shack anywhere.  I’ll be there today early enough to get all that stuff out of the way before settling in to watch Santana pitch.  It’s time to get some confidence and win some games. It’s time to talk about things like wins and losses, actual performance, and stat lines, without trying to predict and project what you guys are going to do.  The division is ripe for the picking, and it’s time you stopped disappointing us and rise up and take it.   Let’s rock Citi Field like it’s never rocked before.

The predictions for your team are meek, but don’t let that bother you.  It’s time to surprise some people.  By June I expect to hear a collective, begrudging “I think this division is the Mets after all” to be uttered by the supposed baseball experts.  I expect you to make it so that most Philadelphia blogs will be talking about the Eagles by August.  The Mets have never closed two consecutive decades without a World Series title, and I see no reason to start the trend now.  In fact, they’ve never had a decade where they did not even go to the World Series, so let’s make that the starting point.

Your lifelong fan,

Optimistic Mets Fan

(I’ll be at the game today, but some that aren’t will be gathering in the Real Dirty Dugout irc chatroom of which you can find a link over on the right)

April 5th, 2010 by Ceetar in 2010, Baseball, championship, Citi Field, Mets, World Series
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2009 World Series: Bad News

As everyone has made light of, this World Series sucks for a Mets fan.

Mets fans are pretty split on which side they’re rooting for, if you can even call it rooting.  Funny thing is, you see plenty of Yankees fans saying that we should be rooting for them, but I don’t hear any Phillies fans making that same argument.

From Mets

Personally, I’m rooting for the Yankees to lose.  I don’t get any joy or any more grief no matter what the Phillies do, but the Yankees winning would really irk me.  It’d blow my theory of them being cursed for knocking down the house that Ruth built, it’d give even more fuel to the “Jeter’s the best player ever” arguments you hear, as well as the constant reminder about how much they’ve won.  Their eight rings to the Mets two would start to get a little insurmountable, whereas three for the Phillies wouldn’t be as rough.

From Mets

Some say that the cracks in Yankee Stadium will open up and swallow both teams into Hell.

Some compare it to 1999 although despite how much it sucked losing the Braves, the Braves fans were never in the equation as hated rivals.  Others suggest we ask who the Yankees were rooting for in 1986 and root accordingly.

Personally, I’m just not watching.  I get no joy out of watching either team, and if you factor in all the game-delay tactics, the 50 million pitching changes, and the pop-fly home runs, I’m just not sure it’s going to be fun to watch anyway.

I’ll be watching the Islanders at the Rangers Wednesday night.

October 27th, 2009 by Ceetar in 2009, Baseball, championship, World Series
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MLB Playoff Predictions

Let’s talk MLB playoff predictions. My picks are probably slightly biased, but there is nothing wrong with that. Anything can happen.

NLDS:

Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies.

My pick is the Rockies. Probably in four games. The Phillies have shown at times this year that they are not that good a team. They haven’t been playing well lately. Lee hasn’t had a good September and Hamels hasn’t had a good year, period. Their bullpen is shaky. They won last year because their pitching got hot at the right time. I don’t see that happening this year. The Rockies have the Wild Card momentum thing going for them, and they can actually pitch pretty well, which is the best thing to have to face the Phillies.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

This is another case of a hot team facing a team that coasted in. The Dodgers are a good team, but I don’t think they have things clicking. I think the Cardinals, behind their pitching and their Pujols, take this series in four games. You can never rule out the Mannywood factor, but I think even if he has a good series, which he probably will, it won’t be enough.

ALDS:

Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees

This series is being billed as a mismatch, but I think there is too much Yankees love out there. We can talk all we want about being tired and worn out, but I bet the Twins wouldn’t describe themselves that way. I think game 163 even helps them, because they won’t have time to unwind and feel tired. They barely have enough time to get to the next game. I think the Twins take the series in four. I think age catches up to the Yankees offensively, I think the pitching won’t be up to task, especially Joba after how he’s been mishandled. The one thing to say is that if the Yankees can hold off the steamroller in game one and win it, I think the Twins could cave to exhaustion and collapse in three.

Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

This is a compelling series too, and I think the hardest one to pick. I think this series will go five, and be the best series. I’m giving the edge to the Red Sox, because I think they have an edge talent wise and that will shine through, but it’ll be close.

NLCS: Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals

I think this is where the Rockies magic wears off. I think they get destroyed, and swept, by the Cardinals.

ALCS: Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins

Similarly I think the Red Sox take care of the Twins in five.

World Series: Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals

I think this is going to be the best World Series in a long time. I think it’ll go to November 5th, all the way to game seven. The Red Sox will take it in the end, winning their third championship of the decade and establishing themselves as the dynasty of the early century.

October 7th, 2009 by Ceetar in 2009, Baseball, World Series
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All…or nothing.

This team is very all or nothing this year.  It feels that way sometimes in games, and now the whole season is at that point.  The whole relationship with the fans is at that point too.  Win, and everythings golden.  lose, and the floodgates will have opened.  

This season has the potential to be great, to create two or three or more all-time Mets favorites, ones that might even surpass guys like Keith Hernandez and Doc Gooden and Darryl Strawberry.  
It could also tumble down, and have fans calling for these guys heads.  Even the ‘franchise’ ones.  This weekend will start to tell the story, and hopefully it’s only the beginning of the story.

September 26th, 2008 by Ceetar in World Series
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Ray Lines

I just logged in to place a bet on the Mets to win the game tonight, and decided to check the odds for the World Series.

the Mets are back to 15-1, which is what I got when I made my wager pre-Santana.

The Rays, the team that’s never finished above 500?

10-1.

Ouch.

Cue comparisons to the ’69 Mets.

June 25th, 2008 by Ceetar in World Series
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Nothing to Say

I wish I had something to say, but there is nothing. The only reason to peruse Mets blogs and media today is the faint hope that someone, somewhere has some insight that promotes confidence. The problem is everytime you find that glimmer, the Mets blow it to shreds at night.

This season started with the most promise and expectation in at least seven years, World Series or bust. The last team the Mets faced in 2006 was to become the first team they’d face in 2007. Now they are seriously in danger of that being the case again, only this time it’s not a World Series champion that foils their quest, but the lowly Marlins. In that first season of the year, they did something they have struggled to do of late, and that’s get revenge and complete a sweep. Maybe seeing Albert and Yadier sparks that fire that they need. Destiny, however slim, is still in the Mets hands. Are the Mets complacent, acting entitled, almost snobbish? Well here is the true wake up call. The one team that can remind them that despite the glory of last year, they are essentially losers. They are owed nothing and have everything to prove.

Hopefully the Mets beat up on the Cardinals, and then because a one game series is just not enough for the Mets to work out their aggression, they’ve got a series against bored fish on the weekend to continue with. Something needs to wake up this team, and if it’s not the Cardinals, I may be using my Playoff money to buy an HDTV.

September 27th, 2007 by Ceetar in Mets, World Series
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Carlos Beltran’s Key Met Moments

Carlos Beltran had a miserable first season with the Mets, but since thing he’s been a big part of the team. He doesn’t like to be in the spotlight, or to be the star player, but he’s had some big impact games and single-handedly won a couple of games for the Mets over the last couple of years. There are a couple that come to mind.

  1. On May 23rd 2006 against the Philadelphia Phillies at Shea, Carlos Beltran launched a long homer over the Mets bullpen in the 16th inning to send everyone home. No one else seemed to be getting to Ryan Madsen, who was in his 7th inning of relief at that point, and even earned a start for the Phillies off of that performance.

  1. Game 1 of the NLCS in 2006. A classic pitchers duel. The only two runs scored by the Mets off of a Carlos Beltran home run down the line.

  1. Sunday, April 29th, 2007. Carlos Beltran’s home run is the only run scored in a terrifically pitched game. John Maine gets the win, but Beltran was just as important.

  1. Thursday, May 17th, 2007. Carlos Beltran has a pinch-hit walk as part of the Mets 5-run come from behind rally against the Cubs.

  1. Saturday, June 23rd, 2007. Lost among the Paul Lo Duca ejection was a key single to left field by Beltran that would’ve scored the only run of the game, had Ricky Ledee not gotten thrown out at the plate.

  1. Saturday, July 7th, 2007. Beltran smacks a single to right field to score Jose Reyes with the go-ahead run in the top of the 17th with the Mets quickly running out of pitchers. Beltran also made a terrific catch on the hill in center field in the bottom of 14th to rob Luke Scott of a walk-off hit.

His ability to come through when he’s needed (game 7 aside, no one’s perfect, even Babe Ruth has ended a post season with a caught stealing.) is going to play a huge role in where the Mets go this year. He’s able to play great defense, and his playoff performance with the Astros can’t be overlooked. He’s a solid contributor to this team, and most of the difference in his numbers from last year are a result of the inconsistency of the rest of the lineup.

Reyes is going through one of his mini-slumps, but Wright’s been hitting well. Carlos Delgado seems to be picking it up a little bit, but he’s teased us with that before. The Mets outfield is beat up, but after the All-Star break I expect we’ll get to see some of Lastings Milledge, which could add some excitement. The last I heard Moises Alou was on the road back, but I haven’t heard much since then. I think these days off will really help Delgado, and he’ll have his best half-season as a Met yet. Endy and Gomez will probably be lost until September, but they should be around for October, when they can both play key roles.

Hopefully the Mets can end this half with another win, and go to the All-Star break with the attitude that the worst is over. I look forward to seeing the Mets starting on Tuesday night, and after they scored and drove in the only runs last year, seeing if the rest of the league can help them out this year. The more World Series games at Shea, the better a chance I have at getting (more, I’m already guaranteed one game) tickets.

July 8th, 2007 by Ceetar in Mets, World Series
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Interleague Play Draws Near: Command?

Good clean 8-1 win with Jorge Sosa pitching wonderfully nets the Mets the best record in the National League for the time being. The game started at roughly 10:10 and finished at just before 1am. Certainly sounds like a typical west coast start time for the Mets, but it was a home game delayed by rain instead.

Interleague play, Love it or hate it, seems like it’s here to stay. There is a lot of debate about it’s pluses and minuses, discussions about how unfair the scheduling is and about how it’s an abomination. Another draw back was made apparent in tonight’s Mets/Cubs game, one that actually affects the fans. With the extra 15-18 baseball games thrown in against the opposing league the Mets see teams like the Cubs and Cardinals who have long been rivals of the Mets, less. If the Cubs were returning to Shea, waiting out a 3-hour rain delay would’ve been less necessary and the game may have been canceled early and a make up scheduled. However that’s not the case; the Cubs play their last game at Shea for the year(although I did pick the Mets over the Cubs in the NLCS, so they could still come back, just not in the regular season) later today and then fly back to Chicago. So the fans sit through a rain delay, the players sit through a rain delay, and the game is played late. The Mets did award anyone with tickets to yesterdays game a free ticket to the Minnesota series, which is nice but besides the point.

While I both like the idea of seeing the different teams, especially in cities where there aren’t two teams like in New York, I personally think it might be a bit much. It ruins a certain flavor of the World Series match-ups too. The World Series is about the best team from each league, going head to head to see which is the best in the ‘World’.(If Bobby Valentine got his way, they’d then go on to play the best team from Japan) Four times in the 10 year history of interleague play has the World Series featured two teams who played each other in the regular season; 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2006. It wasn’t so much two teams pitted against each other as a rematch of a regular season series. The fans didn’t get to ooo and ahhh at the opposing teams stars, as they’d already seen them.

That being said, I’ll still enjoy this weekends games against the Yankees. I’ll be at all three games, screaming at the Yankees and their fans. I’ve even got 6 extra tickets that I need to get rid of at cost for Sunday night’s game. Hopefully I can find someone to take them and not be out that money. If you’re interested, let me know.

One final thought; A lot was made about the American League’s dominance over the National league in Interleague play and over Trevor Hoffman in the All-Star game. I would argue that the Cardinals came through when it mattered, and that’s how you truly determine who’s better. What else is the World Series for right? I think the Interleague games will be more split this year, and I predict the National League will finally win the All-Star game and home field, hopefully at Shea Stadium.

May 17th, 2007 by Ceetar in Shea Stadium, Subway Series, World Series
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