Optimistic Mets Fan – Page 30 – You can root for the Mets without being convinced of their doom

February 13, 2012February 12, 2012

Mets: Bucking the Narrative since 2000

Beat writers and columnists covering a team often look for compelling stories to talk about over a long season. Bloggers and fans do this as well, although to a lesser extent and they’re less likely to look for off the field drama to drive a narrative. I’ve always been fascinated by some of the parallels and story lines you can draw from baseball. However it seems like lately every great story set-up the Mets stumble into fails to produce fruit.

In 1999 the storyline was that no one in the NL East, specifically the Mets, could beat the Braves. The Mets fell behind and ultimately needed a game 163 just to make the playoffs. When they met the Braves in the NLCS, the storyline was affirmed as the Mets fell to the Braves in six games. The season ended on a Kenny Rogers based-loaded walk, reaffirming what Yankees fans already knew about him; that he couldn’t win in New York.

The 2000 season featured the Roger Clemens bean-ball incident, where Clemens hit Mike Piazza in the head and Piazza, and most fans, clearly felt was intentional. The two teams met in the World Series, with Clemens starting game two on the mound for the Yankees. It was the perfect setup for Piazza to get his revenge and carry the Mets to a championship over Clemens and the Yankees. Instead, Clemens flung a shard of broken bat at Piazza and the Mets lost the game and the series.

The end of the 2001 season found the Mets in the center of the 9/11 tragedy. Piazza’s home run in the first game back in New York could’ve been a catalyst to lead the Mets back into the playoff race and a third consecutive trip to the playoffs. Instead they won the game but fell out of the race soon after.

In 2006 the Mets had the best record on the majors and went up against a barely above .500 Cardinals team in the NLCS, but there was no magical storyline. Carlos Beltran absolutely destroyed them, again, in a losing effort. Cliff Floyd pinch hit in what could’ve been a Kirk Gibson moment with him barely being able to run but at bat as the winning run. This was after the amazing Endy Chavez catch over the wall to rob Rolen and double-up Edmonds game. That play could’ve gone on to be one of the most amazing moments in postseason history had it led to a victory. Chavez had a chance to break open the game himself in the bottom of that same inning, and failed to do so. No magical endings to this one.

2007, and 2008, were the real start of the negative narratives. The talk was about collapses, devastation, and injury. Shea Stadium didn’t end with a bang, in fact that failed Endy Chavez game was the last one ever played in the park. Citi Field didn’t open with a bang either. Injuries piled up and the Mets crumbled under all the mess, both on the field and off.

So what’s the story for 2012? What’s the magical journey for the Mets? The one I’m hoping for is the New York Giants parallel. A team given no chance to beat Philly that’s dealt with a lot of injuries despite actually having some talent.

February 9, 2012February 8, 2012

Daniel Murphy is Pure Chaos

Baseball players don’t have enough cool nicknames. So when Ted Berg suggested, via Ike Davis, that “Pure Chaos” would be a good nickname for Daniel Murphy I decided to run with it. It may not describe his hitting style, but I do think it applies to his general approach to the game. Before you say anything, The Irish Hammer does not count as a nickname.

Howie Rose: “Coming up in the bottom of the inning for the Mets: Niese, Tejada and Pure Chaos.”

Sports Radio Update Guy: “It was all Pure Chaos at Citi Field last night, as the Mets walloped the Phillies eight to one.”

February 8, 2012February 7, 2012

The Islanders Battle For Contention

Football is over and it’s still nearly two weeks until pitchers and catchers report and even longer before baseball games start. In the meantime I’m going to enjoy some New York Islanders hockey. Last night they held off the Flyers for a 1-0 shootout win. Evgeni Nabokov played an amazing game in goal, blocking all 45 shots and he always seemed to be in exactly the right place.

The Islanders are not one of the top teams in the league, but luckily the NHL takes the top 16 teams into the playoffs. The Islanders are not currently one of those 16, but they’re starting to make a push at it. They currently sit in 11th, 9 points behind the 8th place Ottawa Senators. However they’ve played four less games than them, and still play them head to head. In essence this means the Islanders actually control their own destiny, although there are still too many games left to break it down like that.

Can they do it? They certainly can, although it still remains a long shot. They would need to eliminate the extended periods of time in which they’re just not playing very well. They got away with one last night, but Nabokov will not always be perfect. On the other hand, John Tavares had very little to do with this victory and stealing a game when he’s not at his best is a good way to get winning streaks going.

The Islanders may not be talented enough to maintain the level of play they need for long enough to make the playoffs, but they’re still quite a fun bunch to watch. They’re playing some thrilling games and John Tavares is one of the best players in the league. Still, long shots occasionally do come through, and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see the Islanders play good enough hockey to leapfrog some other teams that also aren’t great at hockey. Either way they’ll provide some good entertainment to bridge the gap to baseball.

February 7, 2012February 7, 2012

Poll: Which NY Team Will Have The Next Parade?

Congratulation to the Giants for winning the Super Bowl. I wonder, which team will next win a championship in New York? The Rangers will probably be a popular answer, and the Giants are certainly going to be riding a wave of optimism to repeat. The Nets aren’t technically eligible for a parade until 2013, but that’s really not that far away.

So what’s your pick?

February 3, 2012February 2, 2012

It’s All About The Giants..But Not For Long

This weekend is about the New York Giants. It’s about the Super Bowl, and a championship. It’s about perhaps a parade on Tuesday and random rankings of Eli Manning among the greatest QBs in the game today.

So good luck to the Giants. I’m looking forward to this game, and like so many so-called experts on Twitter, blogs, radio and tv, I’m going to give you my meaningless prediction. 30-16 Giants. It’ll seem closer than that though. The Giants will score early in the second half to go up 23-13, and the Patriots will answer with a field goal. The next score will be halfway through the fourth quarter when Tom Brady is picked off deep in his own zone. He’ll then turn the ball over on downs on the Giants 44 yard line, and Eli will run out the clock slowly driving down the field and taking a knee.

The Giants, and NY and NJ, will celebrate. The Senate will drink NY beers bought by New England politicians. There will be a parade. Then, despite five other local sports teams playing professional sports, all eyes will turn to baseball. We’ll tick into single digits of days remaining until pitchers and catchers report.

And it can’t come soon enough. Let’s Go Mets!

February 2, 2012February 1, 2012

Home Run Derby Alternatives

TholeMoley over at Mr. Met Is My Brother wrote a post about watching the NHL All-Star Game. Actually she’s wrote a couple of them, but I want to talk about one of them specifically. I wanted to watch the festivities this weekend, especially with John Tavares a part of them, but I had other things to deal with and missed it. TholeMoley highlighted some of the events in the skills competition, and talks about how much better it is than the Home Run Derby.

Now, personally I like the Home Run Derby. There is nothing more magnificent in all of sports than watching a baseball player swing and smash a baseball 400+ feet in the air. There’s just a simple majestic beauty to it, especially if you see it in person like I did in 2006. (And that’s not just because you can’t hear Chris Berman) Most of what people object to about the Derby is the massive amount of time between batters and all the other stuff besides the mammoth home runs.

So broadening the spectrum might be fun and could include more than just the Home Run Derby and the random eight players they can find to participate. TholeMoley suggests a fastest trip around the bases to parallel the fastest skater event. She also mentions fastest players, hardest throwers, and the most accurate throwers getting their time to shine.

You could do an accuracy event. Set up some milk bottles on a table, and have the players throw a baseball at them. If they hit it they advance to the next round and take five steps back. Repeat this until you have a winner. If all players miss at the same time, simply repeat that round.

Not to take anything away from the kids that get to shag balls in the outfield, but you could position the All-Star outfielders at the walls and let them try to rob home runs all night. Most of them clear the fence by quite a bit though.

Perhaps giving out more titles is the way to go. In a social media society we’re all used to get badges and titles for things as simple as checking in to the ballpark more than anyone else. Instead of just crowning a winner, crown the guy with the farthest home run, with the most home runs back to back and the guy with the highest single round total.

These are just a couple of suggestions, and none of them seem too much different than simple warm-up activities so there shouldn’t be any real concern about anyone getting hurt. It’d be an interesting way to spice up the event and might spike interest that has been fading over the years. There are other things they can do to, like break up the idea of National League versus American League since the advent of interleague play takes away some of the mystery of it. It’s pretty clear that the All-Star Game is not perfect, and MLB should always be looking to tweak it.

January 31, 2012

The Bisons Beer Dinner, Mets Beer Competitions?

The Buffalo Bisons are having a Beer vs. Wine II dinner Thursday at Coca-Cola Field. It’s a rematch of a dinner they had last November.

This is a pretty cool idea and a great use of the park during the offseason. $60 gets you a 5-course meal and a wine and beer pairing with each. Your vote decides which paired better, and the votes are tallied at the end for a winner. Of course beer won the first dinner.

I’m not going to whine (haha, get it?) about the Mets not doing something similar at Citi Field, although I do think it’d be a fun idea. I’m not that unreasonable that I demand all my interests to align in one centrally located area within Flushing.

Except this isn’t really that much different than an event the Mets already have. Oktoberfest! The Mets already have a plan in place for food and drink events, so why not host a couple more? I’d make a point to go to a “Summer Beerfest” event before a Mets game. The competition angle is one way to go too. When the Padres visit in town, pour five Stone Brewery beers on one side, and five Brooklyn Brewery beers on the other. Ask fans to rank their top three beers and then announce the winner during the 5th inning, which would double as a great way to advertise the next competitive beer tasting event.

January 30, 2012January 29, 2012

More on Citi Field’s Uninspiring Beer List

Citi Field is a first-class venue. It’s got amazing food, and much of it is local. The Citi Field beer list is extensive, but it’s also uninspiring. Beer and baseball go together so well yet most of the beers available, particularly to the general public, at Citi Field are only the typical expanded list of beers available via Anheuser Busch distribution. Some of these beers are pretty good, but it lacks that local flair and originality. I’m not knocking the Redhook beers; but it seems sloppy to get them through Anheuser Busch when the brewery itself is only a handful of miles away. Even though they’re all over the place now, the Danny Meyer stands are New York creations. Cascarino’s is a New York pizza place. Pastrami on rye is a very New York food, and Keith’s burgers are especially homey. Even McFaddens was first a New York staple.

So why was Brooklyn Brewery priced out? Why aren’t there more Sixpoint beers around the stadium, especially now that they serve the beer in cans? What about some of the other local breweries? Chelsea? What about Schmaltz Brewing Company which makes the Coney Island Freak line of beer. Interestingly, the Brooklyn Cyclones, the Mets rookie team, plays in Coney Island. Maybe the Mets could serve Albino Python when the Diamonbacks are in town, or the Mermaid Pilsener to mock the Marlin’s cheerleaders. What about Harlem Brewing Company’s Sugar Hill Golden Ale? Harlem is where the Mets first placed, and where the Giants played before them. Blue Point Brewery is probably the only real local beer outside of the Delta Club. Their Blue Point Toasted Lager is available at Catch of the Day, but they’ve got other beers as well.

This all says nothing of the possibility of finding a partner to brew Mets themed beers. Brooklyn Brewery has an expanded brewery now, and when they provided beer to Box Frites, it was their own beer called Blanche De Brooklyn that they renamed Blanche we Queens. Why stop there? What about a Home Run Apple Lager? A World’s Fair Oktoberfest? A Darryl Strawberry Blonde? The possibilities are endless. Maybe Schmaltz would be intrigued by the opportunity to create a Brooklyn Cyclones Ale for MCU Park and Citi Field.

I think the Mets, and Aramark, may underestimate just how many Mets fans are huge beer fans as well. It’s not just the hardcore fan either. There are plenty of casual baseball fans out there that could be drawn off the fence and into the park if they were tempted to try a unique beer.

Stay tuned, later this week I’m going to talk about what some of the other stadiums around baseball are doing with beer.

January 26, 2012

New Mets HOF Member John Franco: First Pitch at Citi Field

Congratulations to John Franco for being selected for the Mets Hall of Fame.

Did you know John Franco threw out the first ever ceremonial first pitch at Citi Field? It’s true! It took place at an exhibition game between St. Johns and Georgetown. Franco went to St. Johns, so was tagged to do the honors.

January 25, 2012January 24, 2012

My Problems With FIP

The formula for the Sabermetric stat FIP is (13HR + 3(BB+HBP-IBB) – 2K )/ IP That’s then added to a constant to equate it to normal ERA ranges. (xFIP provides some extrapolation on HR rate per fly ball, but my overall concerns remain the same)

The general idea with FIP is to try to determine how well a pitcher pitches without luck and the fielders altering his results. Once the ball leaves the bat it could be a bloop that no one reaches, or a screaming liner that happens to be right at someone. This is not affected by the pitch the pitcher throws, and the only way a pitcher can be sure of a result is to strike out the hitter.

It’s supposed to be irrelevant to the statistic. FIP treats a screaming double off the wall the same as Jeterian soft groundout to short. Except it doesn’t really. The ground out is .1 IP and lowers FIP by raising the denominator in the formula. This is part of the problem with the stat. It does successfully remove bad defense from the equation by not penalizing a pitcher for an infield single that or a liner that finds a hole, but it also credits pitchers with good defense with extra outs.

The stat was created with the assertion that pitchers lose control of what happens after ball hits bat. So the idea is the pitcher is ‘better’ if he can overmatch the hitter and beat him via being a better pitcher than he is a hitter, and striking him out. Another problem is the pitcher does have some control over the batted ball, and no one knows how much or how to measure it. You can see a pitcher one year induce a ton of soft contact, and then all of a sudden induce a lot of strong contact another year. That’s hard to measure. Matt Cain is one example, and Chris Young another, of pitchers that always seem to outperform their FIP.

Actually inducing soft contact, something groundball pitcher seem to do better, is something that _can_ be done. As of yet statisticians haven’t been able to conclusively measure soft contact, and I’m not even sure pitchers can actively decide to do it with any real consistency. It may be that the quality of contact can be reduced by keeping the hitter guessing. Ground balls yield more outs than fly balls, but it’s also true that the times you most want to throw a pitch that gets more ground balls is also the times that the hitter knows you want to throw that pitch.

No stats are perfect, and we shouldn’t hold FIP to a higher standard, or use it in a more absolute manner, than any other stat. I’m certainly not saying that we shouldn’t ever reference FIP, or that we should abandon the quest to expand our knowledge of baseball.

I haven’t done the math, but I could see FIP being a stat useful for picking the reliever you most want to bring into runners on situation. These pitchers should theoretically be the most likely to get an out without a runner scoring due to a lucky bloop, or a home run doing lots of damage. This is especially true of relievers because their smaller sample size of innings pitched leads to much more variance in their ERA.

The difference in ERA and FIP can also be telling, although not conclusively. Looking to see how much a pitcher’s FIP is off from his ERA can be a way to predict if he’s getting lucky, or unlucky. It’s not a tell-all though; it can be used as a warning flag to look further, but it’s not a direct relationship from out-performing FIP to being due for a drop off in performance. Jonathan Niese will be a good study in this this year. His ERA last year, as it’s been most years, was much higher than his FIP. He had a 3.36 FIP and a 4.40 ERA. He’s rewarded for striking out a lot of guys, but the mounting data is starting to suggest that the high amount of hits he gives up aren’t just due to luck and bad fielding.

I’ve started playing around with some of the numbers, but haven’t gotten that far. Tweaking the formula to use batters faced instead of innings pitched doesn’t make that much of a difference. The high numbers of batters bad pitchers face tends to lower their numbers in that case. Pitchers like Oliver Perez who face a zillion guys but then strike out the side to get out of danger would do well in that situation, but even the simplest of analysts knows that’s not a good job.

Next I tried correcting for balls in play. Instead of simply batters faced, I removed the percentages of outs from balls in play that simple luck would turn into outs. Then I adjusted the formula to take away extra outs the defense provided, or add back in outs they should’ve made back towards normal. This looks better, but I’m still looking at the numbers and playing with the formulas to see if I like it. I’m also still just trying to figure out how to smoothly create and maintain a database of baseball stats, so there is a lot of trial and error going on over here.

Sabermetrics have given us a much better understanding of baseball, but it’s only just starting. They got there by questioning the established logic, and it’s a philosophy we shouldn’t abandon just because we’ve taken a big step in understanding.