Letters to the NL East, Part 0, Dear Yankees…

To read previous letters, go here.
Letters to the NL East, part 0

Dear New York Yankees,

It’s April again.  It’s time to see how your collection of players that were good in the early part of last decade hold up in 2011.  The offense should be fine with mansion-building Jeter manning shortstop.  Even if he can’t quite man the position, at least he can make fine looking leaping throws since he lacks the arm strength of Jose Reyes to reach first otherwise.

The Mets released Oliver Perez, but if we still want to see his act we can always tune in to Yankees games when A.J. Burnett pitches.  Your bullpen looks good, sure, but Mariano is another year older and has presumably reached the stage where he’ll never have to audition for another contract again; the opposite of a contract year.  Soriano has been said to be a bit of a malcontent, we burned Pedro Feliciano out already, and most of us are tired of the Joba show.  Did you really add Luis Ayala, prominent 2008 collapsee, to the roster?

You’ve got steep competition in that division; the Red Sox are clearly better on paper and I wouldn’t count out the Rays.  The Blue Jays have managed to at least be dangerous in recent years and the Orioles are gunning for you.

Good luck trying to make the playoffs this year…you’ll need it.

You crosstown rival,

Optimistic Mets Fan

Letters to the NL East, Part 1, Dear Nats..

Dear Washington Nationals,

 

You closed Five Guys and are building Shake Shack in Nationals Park? Copy cats!  If you take our Brooklyn beers, I’ll be furious.  Let me guess, it was all Alex Cora’s idea?

 

Should I be talking about your actual team?  Is there actually anything to talk about?  You’re going to finish last, it’s just a matter of how badly.  Oh, I know, you’ve got a shiny new slugger in right field stolen away from the Phillies.  Kudos on making them a weaker team, that should help us out.  I’m sorry you still have to pay him that much money in 2018.  Don’t worry though, those draft picks you got when Steven Strasburg left for free agency will probably be reaching the majors right around then and won’t be making much money.

 

At least your team isn’t _completely_ horrible this year.  Maybe you can play spoiler and beat up on the Braves and Phillies a bit in September.  Still, you’ll have to pitch and I’ve seen a better rotation in batting practice.  Livan Hernandez and Jason Marquis should fun to face this year.  The Mets couldn’t have a better Opening Day opponent.

 

Your Friens Ahead Of You in the Shake Shack line,

Optimistic Mets Fan

Letters to the NL East, Part 2, Dear Braves…

Dear Atlanta Braves,

 

You think you can quietly build a quality team and surprise people by trying to take this division?  Think again. More often than not this division has been about the Mets chasing you guys, but this year will be different.  Chipper Jones is no longer a scrappy rookie; in fact Larry is a worn down old player that has trouble staying on the field.

 

I’m aware you may try to compete for the best offense in the league, but remember that Alex Gonzalez is not good, Freddie Freeman is an unproven rookie, and Nate McLouth has been bad.  If Chipper can’t play, that offense suddenly isn’t very good, especially on days McCann needs a break.

 

Yes yes, pitching is your thing.  I get it.  You’ve got Hudson back healthy and young Tommy Hanson, cousin to the members of the band Hanson, looks like the real deal.  A fair amount probably hinges on Jair Jurrjens being able to regain his form from two years ago, and if that’s going to happen is yet to be seen.  Just make sure not too many balls are hit to second, or Uggla will do his best to undo defensively any value he creates with his bat.

 

Waiting to reverse the tomahawk chop on you,

 

Optimistic Mets Fan

Spring Training Voyage

 

I’m back from Spring Training, and it’s all too soon. I was having a lot of fun poking around Port St. Lucie and Digital Domain Park.  I took 500 pictures over three days, and captured images of many of our favorite, and less favorite, Mets players.  I watched road, home, and minor league games and saw players from the low minors to the cream of the crop doing all different kinds of baseball drills.  I met Amber Coyle, and Matthew Rose of NL East Chatter and The Real Dirty Mets Blog.

First, check out these two posts I put up last week involving Mets eating dinner and pictures from the St. Patrick’s Day game against the Red Sox and then click below to view more pictures.

Mets Players, and Owners, Eat at Duffy’s

After returning from Fort Myers to Port St. Lucie on Thursday, we went to Duffy’s for dinner.   One of the waiters there noticed our Mets stuff and mentioned that all the Wilpons were in earlier eating dinner.  He said they didn’t tip as well as in years past, but it was still a lot of money.

 

Halfway through our meal my wife noticed five athletic looking guys walk past us to a table in the back.  I recognized Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and I suspect the others were also just returned from the Red Sox game and were getting a late dinner.   I think Lucas Duda and Russ Adams were there.

2011 MLB Over-Unders: My Picks

Every year I make a couple of prop bets on baseball before the season starts.  I just like to put my money where my mouth is and this year is no different.  So here are a couple of MLB Over/Under bets I made on Bodog. The player props aren’t out yet, so this is just the team. 

Tampa Bay Rays – Over 84½

I know they lost some guys, but they’ve also picked some up.  They can still pitch, and I don’t expect them to drop off as much as this.

Philadelphia Phillies – Under 97

I would like to point out that they lost Jason Werth in an offense that at times last year was non-existent and their best hitters are both a year older, and hurting.  Chase Utley still hasn’t played a game this spring.  Yes, they’ve got quite the cast of starting pitchers, but Hamels is up one year and down the next, Oswalt has struggled with back issues frequently and neither he nor Cliff Lee had absolutely amazing numbers last year.  The offense also has to score for them to win.  Halladay is still amazing, but 97 seems high.

New York Mets – Over 77

 Unless you’re predicting injuries and guys having bad years, it’s hard to imagine the Mets winning this few games. They won more last year, and I think they’re a better team, perhaps the best offense in the National League.   They’ve got a manager, they’ve got Reyes healthy.  They won’t be playing Jeff Francoeur even if Beltran can’t play 140.  I expect 2B, 1B and catcher all to give us more production, and it’d be hard for Jason Bay not to have a bounce back year.  I believe in Dickey and Pelfrey and I think Niese gets better in his second year. 

Baltimore Orioles – Under 76½

76.5? in the AL East? For a team that won 66 last season? They’ve made some additions this offseason, but I can’t see them reaching 77 wins.  This probably goes along with my Rays guess.  If I think they’re going to win more games, some of those will be against the Orioles. 

Atlanta Braves – Under 87½

The Braves reached 91 games last season, so this one’s tough.  I believe they overperformed a bit and I don’t have faith in their pitching depth.  They also no longer have Bobby Cox, for whatever that’s worth, and Billy Wagner had a great year for them and retired.  I could see them winning 86-87, but I think they fall just under.

New York Mets 35/1 to win the World Series

Obviously a long shot, but I make this bet every year.  Personally I think they have a better than 1/35% change

Debunking Pessimism

I stumbled across this extremely negative post on the Mets through some Google alerts.  At first I thought it would end up being a Philly blog, but nope. So here’s his five reasons why the Mets will suck post is way off the mark.
 

Spring training games began over the weekend, reminding us all how terrible the Mets will be this year.  Fittingly, Luis Castillo booted a ball at second base yesterday. Way to set the tone for the new season, Luis.

 

Here are my top 5 reasons why the Mets will be terrible this year.

Yes, I’m sure Castillo booting a ball in practice just doomed the Mets all season. Real players never actually make mistakes in Spring Training. Nevermind that Scott Hairston hit two home runs. This is just an excuse to pick on Castillo, who might not even make the team.

5- Ownership: Between borrowing $25 million from Major League Baseball, looking for minority ownership, and facing a multi-million dollar law suit, it will be a distraction all season. If the Wilpons sell the team, maybe it will make them less terrible, but still not good.

I can’t tell you that the Madoff stuff is a positive in any way, but it’s hardly going to be a distraction that causes the Mets to fail.  Wright’s not going to be worrying about the state of the lawsuit while he’s standing out at third base or at the plate.  They won’t even have to talk about it with the press, they’ve all said what they can say and their business is not finance, it’s baseball.  The state of the finances is not going to have much of an effect on the play on the field.  The only real thing it might do is prevent Alderson from adding pieces around the trade deadline, but so far there is no word that it will.  

4- Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez: It’s March 1, and for some reason they are still on the team. Perez got bombed in his first spring training game and Castillo is abysmal. Sadly he could actually win the starting second base position. It is unbelievable the Mets do not have anyone better than Castillo. Please cut your losses. I would rather have Ike Davis play first and second at the same time.

They’re on the team because they can’t lose the Mets games in March.  Whether or not they make the team will solely be based on merit, and it’s not looking good for either of them.  The players that help the Mets win will make the team, and therefore these two players will not be why they suck.  Reyes and Davis do have pretty good range, but I don’t think it’s enough to cover second base too. Plus, the rules don’t allow for only eight players in the lineup.  

3- Carlos Beltran playing right field: How long until he complains about it? I give it a month. Just imagine if he gets off to a bad start on offense. I know what the excuse will be.

#blamebeltran.  This pretty much debunks the whole post right here doesn’t it?  Never mind that he voluntarily moved there or that he’s not a complainer or an excuse maker.  A more valid question is how much regular rest is he going to need, and how well do those knees hold up?  Still, he’s been taking batting practice, and he should be ready to go as a hitter.  This should help prevent a slow start offensively at least.  Carlos Beltran continues to be underappreciated.

2- The NL East: The Phillies are probably the best team in baseball, which is not even fair, but the Braves and Marlins are better than last year too. The Mets are closer to the Nationals.

Just stating it doesn’t make it so. Probably? What if they’re not?  What if someone gets hurt? Their offense no longer looks formidable, Utley hasn’t even played yet and it’s looking more and more likely that Wilson Valdez may be starting for them, and they don’t even know what scrub or under-prepared prospect they’re going to throw out there in right field.  What if they don’t score runs when they pitch these great games, and what if age catches up with them?   The Marlins are not very good.  They’ve got some pitching, but it’s hardly amazing and they’re fielding a AAA offense outside of a couple of guys.  The Mets are capable of being in the thick of things just with their offense and with Pelfrey, Dickey and Niese doing what they did last year.

1- The Pitching Staff:  With Johan out until God knows when, Mike Pelfrey is the ace of the staff. Enough said. The Mets are depending on RA Dickey to repeat what he did last season, which is insane. I can’t even tell you who the 4th and 5th starters are: Chris Young?, Chris Capuano?, Dilon Gee? Oliver Perez??? Who the hell knows. As for the bullpen, talk about a disaster. Hopefully K-Rod won’t get arrested again or injure himself while beating up an old man. I honestly can’t even tell you who else is in the bullpen, so I have no further comments.

Enough said?  Sure, I could agree with that.  Mike Pelfrey was basically the best pitcher in baseball last April.  He had a horrible July, and it’s important that he minimizes that this year, but to dismiss him as crap is silly.  Why is it insane to expect Dickey to be as good as last year?  Did you really watch him all last year, and listen to him talk about pitching, and deduce that it was a fluke? It wasn’t.  He’s learned and adapted, and crafted his knuckleball to be a dangerous weapon.  It’s certainly possible he’s not as good, but the dropoff won’t be that extreme.  The ignorance in the rest of this ‘reason’ is too large to argue with, but I do have faith that some combination of Young and Capuano can give us some quality innings and keep the Mets in the game.  Losing Santana is rough, but given how many of his great games they let turn into losses last year, I’m confident with a little hitting the Mets can win more games that a lesser pitcher starts than they did last year with Santana on the mound.

 

I do have something good for Mets fans to look forward to. On Tuesday night (After the Knicks game) MSG will have a 4 part series on the ’86 Mets. Bar fights, sex, drugs, alcohol and more sex, drugs and alcohol- the good old days. Should be interesting. I guarantee it will be better than anything the Mets do on the field.

I’ll grant a pass on this statement since it was written before hand, but most accounts I’ve seen of the show have been pretty negative.  You can take your ‘guarantee’ and shove it, the Mets are going to be interesting this year.  Optimism is not a sin.

They Played Baseball!

Men, some of them even with METS written on their chests, played baseball this weekend!  I know some don’t get excited for exhibition baseball, but it’s a beautiful day in New York and the familiar sounds of baseballs are in the air and on the screen.  Opening Day doesn’t seem far away.

It’s not even about the results.  The results this early in the Grapefruit League season are practically worthless.  That players are getting reps and throwing pitches and swinging bats and catching and throwing the baseball is enough.   Not that that will stop  fans and even beat writers from proclaiming who will make the team and who will get cut.  I’m not ready for that yet; Those are late spring decisions.

I’ll be headed to Florida for three Mets games in mid-March.  I’ll have some fun tweeting pictures and observations and just basking in the excitement of being at a baseball game.  Until then, read my posts from week about what to watch, and what not to, in Spring Training.

Signs of Spring

There’s snow on the ground again and it’s freezing out.  Not to fret though, because baseball is getting closer!  Check out this cartoon by Jim Borgman (of Zits fame) that represents this time of year so perfectly.

Also, as The Happy Recap points out on Twitter, the first Spring Training Mets broadcast is close enough to show up in a TV guide.

Optimism Is Not A Sin!

Last week Ted Berg wrote this piece about optimism in response to a different optimistic post by Patrick Flood. Scratchbomb retweeted it, noting that optimism is not a sin.  I like the phrase, and it’s good to see others jumping aboard the optimism bandwagon and joining the club (see the sidebar to join the Optimistic Mets Fan Club on Facebook), whether it’s just front office philosophy or not.
Optimism Is Not A Sin
Ted and Patrick wrote about optimism mainly in regards to the Mets offseason moves, and sabermetrics.  A lot of discussions these days get twisted into an “everything Omar did was bad and Alderson is a sabermetric genius and won’t make those same mistakes.”  Sure, Omar didn’t rely on advanced statistics as much as Alderson does, but as Ted suggested, the Mets aren’t in a position to lose 120 games.  There were flaws in this team, even without the injury issues, but the team is talented, promoted minor leaguers that have contributed and will contribute in the future, and is in a good position to add pieces in the future as need be.  Moves are not necessarily easier to be positive about just because they are made with a larger emphasize on advanced statistical analysis and the Chris Youngs of 2011 are looking to fill a much larger role than the bench spots Omar signed Jacobs and Matthews Jr to last year.

Sabermetrics or not, the Mets offseason was a collection of minor signings meant to represent depth and upside.  There weren’t many good or great players to be had at anything approaching reasonable value and the Mets roster wasn’t the swiss cheese of baseball rosters that many made it out to be.  Alderson hit the holes, and hit them hard.  Multiples options for second base and lots of bench guys to slot in at various positions around the field to provide suitable backups and provide depth should a regular need to sit out a couple of days.  A handful of pitchers who have potential, or have had a great year or two when they stay healthy to make up the two empty rotation spots, and a barrel full of relievers to make up a bullpen in what sounds like it will be a no-holds barred cage match in Spring Training for the last three or four spots.

Optimism is not a sin.  I try, and I’ll continue to try until the division is clinched, to make a case for how and why the Mets will win the division. The odds may be stacked against them and they may need more things to go right than would be considered normal luck but that doesn’t mean they it’s impossible, or that it’s useless to be hopeful and upbeat that they can happen, and that the Mets can win.

I truly believe that the Mets could have one of the best offenses in the National League, and I’m not going to be shy about proclaiming that.  Looking at the lineup, it’s certainly not a stretch.  There is a certain amount of recovery from some and growing from others needed for it to happen, but it’s not out of the question.  Closer to Opening Day I’ll make my official case for how and why I’m predicting the Mets will clinch the division on 9/25 against the Phillies.

Most importantly, the games still have to be played.  Every year there are dozens of pitchers that were great and revert to being pretty average.  There are rookies that take off in their second year to have great years, and players that overcome injury in previous seasons to have bounce back years. When those players bouncing back are perennial All-Stars, the bounce is that much higher.  There are surprises every season; no one knows what’s going to happen.  Even the predicted favorite from the offseason rarely makes it all the way to the World Series. Take the Sports Illustrated picks from last season; not even one supposed expert got either of the pennant winners correct.

So don’t get caught up in the negativity around the Mets.  There is nothing wrong with thinking some of the Mets signings will have a good year and stay healthy, that Ike Davis could blossom into an excellent player or that Reyes and Beltran in their walk year put up numbers close to their career norms.  With better coaching and leadership it’s a pretty good bet that the Mets will get more out of their talent than they have in years past.  Remember: Optimism is not a sin!

Update: Here’s a post by Brian DiMenna who’s joined the Optimistic Mets Fan Club.