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What NOT To Watch in Port St. Lucie

Yesterday I mentioned a couple of things to watch for in Spring Training. Today I’ll run through a couple of things that aren’t worth paying much attention to.

Statistics
The results don’t matter.  This goes double for guys with guaranteed spots and pitchers.  Pitchers tend to experiment with different things like pitch selection, grip, or even a new pitch.  They may stand on a different part of the rubber or pitch from the stretch with no one on just for practice.  Being that the games don’t matter, they’re able to tinker without affecting the standings. An example of this is last spring Mike Pelfrey said “I threw all split-finger fastballs one inning.”  This is not something that he would do in a game situation.

The numbers for the guys competing for spots may matter a bit more, but the entire experience is an evaluation and a showcase.  It’s more than who strikes out the most batters or who hits the most home runs.  It could be about any number of things and often managers and general managers may go on feel.  They could be looking at how hard a guy hits the ball, even for outs, or looking to see if he’s laying off bad pitches that were causing too many strikeouts in years past. Spring Training is almost always a small sample size subject to a lot of variation.  AAA players, pitchers working on things, defenders playing a position for the first time, pitchers experimenting with new grips and new deliveries and pitches all create a game that’s not quite the same as the regular season.   Often decisions need to be made on less measurable things like work ethic, bat speed, or getting good reads on fly balls.

Reports On Physical Condition
Inevitably someone in camp is in the best shape of their lives, while others packed on some pounds.  This information is beyond useless beyond making fun of the fat guy on a rival team’s roster.  It’s still six weeks to Opening Day and everyone is well into a regimented workout program by then that makes what they ate in the offseason while they were essentially on vacation worthless. No one criticizes you when you have a second helping of pulled pork and another cocktail when you’re on vacation, so lay off the players.

Game Scores and Records
For every example of a team that dominated Spring Training that did well in the regular season there is a team that did horrible in Spring Training and still did well in the regular season.  None of it matters.  Guys are just putting in their work.  It’s a rotating cast of characters parading through the game and half of them won’t even make the team.  Sometimes they tie. Sometimes they play a 10th inning for fun and sometimes the manager pinch hits an unseasoned AA rookie for his superstar in the bottom of the 9th just because he wants to see if he can hit the lefty on the mound.  The same goes for lineups early on.  Sometimes stars bat higher up in the order so they can get their two or three at-bats in earlier in the game and get off the field.  You may bat a pitcher third because you want him to practice a bunt or move a player to lead off to challenge him to take more pitches.

Spring Training is a lot of fun, but it’s still an exhibition for the real thing.  There are a lot of interesting things to watch, but there are plenty of things that aren’t worth worrying about either.

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Is Rex Ryan Jose Reyes’ new best friend?

Rex Ryan has taken the Jets, and Jets fans, for a ride these last two years.  He does things differently than most sports leaders, particularly in the NFL. He’s emotional and brash.  He tries to tell it like it is and portrays extreme confidence.  He’s not afraid of a little trash talk.  His players seem to love him, and Jets fans do as well.

Now that football season is mercifully over and we turn our attention back to baseball I can’t help but wonder how this will affect Jose Reyes.  Reyes is one of those players that has been criticized by some for being too playful, for celebrating too much, or for his cheery dances after home runs. The guy’s really just enjoying playing baseball, and it’s part of what makes him an energetic and enthusiastic leadoff hitter but some criticize anyway.  I wonder if watching Rex Ryan these last couple of years will lessen any of the ill will towards Reyes.

Some of the media will criticize, especially since criticizing the Mets is popular in the media these days.  Talk radio hosts will still bring up the topic just like they bring up Ryan’s antics.  Even Jets supporter Michael Kay was critical of the way Ryan was talking about Tom Brady and he has no love for the Mets.  It does seem to matter less to the fans than the media, and even non-Jets fans may be more tired and annoyed at the endless discussion of this off the field stuff than the actual team itself.  Reyes will still get his share of criticism.  If he slumps, reporters will point to his dancing, or blame his clapping when he hits a double.  They’ll talk about how he’s playing for a contract, if he’s not extended in Spring Training like I expect, and should grow up and act mature.  Reyes will be the longest tenured Met and many will demand that he step up and act differently.

Reyes will always be Reyes.  Carlos Beltran once sat him down in Spring Training, when he was getting concerned that he should be listening to these analysts and acting differently, and told him to be himself.  Reyes is one of the hardest working players on the team, and his enthusiasm and energy is an asset, not a problem.  As long as he prepares himself for each game, and plays to the best of his extensive abilities Reyes can dance after home runs, or cheer when he gets a hit.

Rex Ryan has shown us that there isn’t one way to act; that there isn’t a specific formula or schema required to be successful in professional sports.  The best that anyone can do is try their hardest, and be themselves.  Hopefully Rex Ryan’s two seasons in New York will remind Mets fans that a little bit of enthusiasm and bravado is not a bad thing.

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Could The Madoff Situation Actually Help Alderson?

This post is it.  I’ll comment once with my thoughts about this Sterling Equities news, and then I’m going back to desperately counting the seconds until pitchers and catchers report. (1,173,300 seconds until it’s 2/15, as of this post)

Did the recent Sterling Equities news regarding the Wilpons looking to possibly sell part of the team actually help Sandy Alderson do his job?  The news may help Alderson lowball other teams on money-related transactions more so than he might otherwise be able to do.  While he’s not going to get players for free that other teams don’t really want to move, if a team is looking to make a deal with the Mets, they might subconsciously be expecting less in return.

Reporters have gone wild with speculation about what this means, that the Wilpons will sell, and that they won’t be able to spend any money.  Some predict Reyes traded by the trading deadline as a result, although some predicted this anyway.  Buster Olney, who’s actual post is behind a paywall, suggests some rival executives are all but positive Reyes gets traded because they can’t afford to keep him.  This suggests two things to me: 1. I’ve never been a fan of Olney anyway, but in the age of blogs and Twitter if what you’re writing is behind a paywall there is a pretty good chance it’s not worth reading.  2. The Mets are best off extending Reyes in Spring Training because even if they wanted to trade him in some crazy scenario, the rumors that they have to hurts their negotiating position.

I don’t expect this news to amount to anything more than another name on the media guide list of owners, but it’s certainly possible this is the start of a slippery slope to a scenario that includes the Wilpons having to sell off the entire team.  The initial info seems to suggest that the news is more of a guardrail against that slippery slope than the first tumble, but many of the details are still hidden and most are above my head in terms of financial understanding.  What will be, will be.  The roster is mostly set.  The Mets will play baseball in 2011, and I’ll be able to go there and root for them and cheer for them.  That’s pretty much 99.6% of my concern as it relates to who actually owns the Mets.

Still, perception is meaningful.  The team may very well be projected to not even afford the letters on their uniform backs at this rate. (One might suggest they stick to only two different uniforms in that case and remove the names altogether)  Sandy Alderson may be able to use the perception of constraint when dealing with free agents, and with other teams when the trade involves money or paying contracts, to his advantage.  Maybe Alderson finds a suiter for Oliver Perez, and instead of paying 11 million of his contract, he uses the Madoff situation to suggest the Mets only pay 10.5.  Maybe Jose Reyes really does want to stay here, and Alderson milks his loyalty by getting him to sign for less under the guise of needing that money to buy competitive players around him.

This is probably still a stretch.  The 2011 roster and budget are nearly financially complete, and the Mets won’t likely be looking to spend a lot of money before the All-Star break.  At that point, the potential financial windfall of being successful in September and making the playoffs almost always offsets the initial cost of bringing the last two months of an expensive players contract.  Sandy Alderson told me that he’d have no constraints at that point, and I hope that remains true.  It’ll be interesting to see how Alderson conducts business going further; if crying poor helps him negotiate, or if he dispels rumors by actually spending money on Reyes, or on mid-season acquisitions.

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Waiting For Baseball

Just my silly little attempt to take a picture that represents “Waiting For Baseball.”  Been playing around with my camera more lately; maybe I’ll take some interesting pictures down in Spring Training. My first set of tickets arrived yesterday.

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K-Rod’s Option “Problem”

I know all these stories have been talked about and re-talked about since it’s the off-season and there is very little going on, but bare with me as I talk about this one some more.

People act like Francisco Rodriguez’s option year for 2012 vesting would be disastrous. He makes 11.5 million next year and that jumps to 17.5 million if he finishes 55 games, which he usually does. That’s a six million dollar raise, Although if it doesn’t vest they owe him 3.5 million to buy it out. It’s not really that bad. Omar knew that a lot of money was coming off in 2012, and the philosophy is that good teams have good closers. Since K-Rod is one of the best, and remains one of the best (i.e. finishing games, staying healthy, and the option vesting), the Mets would be best served to keep him. The raise is a lot, and I’m not sure how that went down in negotiations or why it need to be so much more than the base contract, but if the option vests it means he’s contributing to the success of this team.

The Mets problems in the past couple of years have not been spending too much money, but spending too much money on guys who have not contributed. The Mets have not been playing with a $140 million dollar payroll team the last couple of years. If the Mets have guys on the field, like Francisco Rodriguez, who are performing and contributing, then the amount of money they’re being paid becomes less important. Sure he’s making more money than he’s theoretically worth, but he is adding value. There is no guarentee that the players you sign to replace him with that 17.5 (really 14 because of the buyout) million dollars would win you more games. Especially as it’s a one year thing, and the Mets reportedly will have plenty of money to spend next year without that 14 million and an extra hole to fill. Do you want to take the gamble that the money saved by the option not vesting is will help create a more successful team in 2012? It’s certainly possible, but sometimes the saying “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” is apt.

Using games started and games finished as vesting options has always annoyed me. You’re not allowed to vest options based on statistical performance, and this seems to be skirting that line. Games on the active roster, or “games healthy” would make more sense. Both games started and games finished have the possibility of the team manipulating things so that options don’t vest. So do games appeared, as Alex Cora found out last year. Games finished is even more linked to performance, because a closer being bad at home actively alters the number of games he finishes.

There is no real need to speculate on ways to get around the option though. Francisco Rodriguez will either be healthy and successful and closing out a lot of games for a reasonably successful club, or the team will wallow in mediocrity and not get that many chances. The Mets offense seems poised to score a lot of runs though, so if the bullpen can hold leads, there may be less save situations. If Terry Collins chooses not to use Rodriguez in four run save situations or get him work for the sake of work, then that could keep the games finished number down. If the Mets are competing in August and September then not only will the Mets need and want him closing games, cost be damned, but the added attendance boost and revenue from being competitive will more than pay that raise for 2012. The thing the Mets can do to create the most money and financial flexibility is to win, not to look for ways around options or to avoid pricey contracts.

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Baseball Equinox

As Faith and Fear in Flushing points out, yesterday was the (Mets) Baseball Equinox. That magical time of year when the start of the baseball season is closer than the end of the last season.  It’s time to look forward.  It’s only 42 (ish, no official date yet) days until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training on February 13th.


It’s unlikely the entire roster will be clear when that day arrives, or even set in stone on Opening Day.  The Mets aren’t likely to be revealed as a powerhouse out of camp, or be picked by many to even mak

e the playoffs.  Like many teams that go into the season with players with potential, players with talent, and players that need to stay healthy, it’s a fresh start and a fresh chance to change the narrative.

This isn’t a franchise that’s praying and hoping it’s latest batch of draft picks turns out to be superstars that they can control for years and actually compete.  The Mets are an under-performing team that finished around .500 last year. They’ve been cast as injury-prone, washed-up, creaky, soft, or just simply not that good.  As Sandy Alderson fills out the roster, and the Mets report for Spring Training and start showing us what they can do, they’ll have a chance to start changing what they’ve been type-cast as.

Carlos Beltran can hit the season healthy, and prove that a combination of time and his knee-brace can keep him on the field and performing all year long.  David Wright can take the mantle of captain, whether officially or unofficially, and lead this team.  Ike Davis and Jon Niese, among other 2010 rookies, can take that next step forward and become better major league baseball players. R.A. Dickey can assert that he’s a burgeoning knucklerballer, not a one-year wonder. The Mets can start rewriting their story as a well-run, hard-working team of talent rather than the usual mess they’re portrayed as.  It’ll take some effort and success and maybe even luck to start getting the reporters and fans to see this cast of characters as a new team.  Still, the foundation is there.  The Mets have a new general manager and manager that the media would love to cast as saviors.   They’ll be falling over themselves to to explain how Collin’s fiery leadership is leading to wins and success on the field.  They’ll praise Alderson’s construction of the bench, or the bullpen, or his choice at 2B as brilliant.

It’s 2011 and we’re closer to the new season than the old one.  Baseball is around the corner and the Mets have nowhere to go but up.  There are still acquisitions to happen, and jobs to be won, but when the season starts we’ll have a lot to cheer about.

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Divisions Aren’t Won in December

I believe it’s my job to try to spin Cliff Lee signing with the Phillies as not the end of the world. Start with this Hardball Talk article. Although it’s no secret that Cliff Lee is light years better than Kyle Kendrick or whoever ends up being bumped (Blanton via trade?) from the rotation as a result of the signing.

The article by Matthew Pouliot does a good job breaking down some of the specific concerns with the Phillies, particularly on the offensive side and in the bullpen. World Series, or even division titles, are not won in December. You still have to play the games. Things change drastically from year to year. Players who have been injured don’t stay injured. Players who are healthy don’t stay healthy. Players get older. Players have good years and bad. The Mets underperformed and missed by one game in 2007 and responded by adding the best pitcher in baseball..and somehow didn’t get any better.

The other argument is flexibility. Alderson’s motto so far has been to create flexibility for the Mets to be able to adapt and fix holes as they come. To sign free agents they need when they need them. Overreacting to an acquisition by the opposition and throwing out the philosophy two months in would be silly. The Phillies are now probably the definition of inflexible. Their payroll is so bulging people are reporting that they’re going to have to jettison payroll, probably by trading Joe Blanton. Their pitching depth is poor, so that if anything happens to their starting four, the dropoff is great. Their entire offense is old, neither corner outfield spot projects to come close to being above average, and they’ve lost Jason Werth.

The Mets on the other hand will have the ability, and desire, to add a player by the trading deadline to fix holes. They’ll be getting Johan Santana back. They’ll know if their underperforming core has raised it’s game. It’s entirely likely that the Mets offense will be better than the Phillies. While the Mets have rotational depth issues as well to start the season, Dickey, Niese and Pelfrey look to be very solid contributors. Sandy Alderson has repeatedly stated that he loves to make midseason moves, and he’s confirmed that he’ll have the flexibility to do so. Maybe this is the year the Mets go 40-15 down the stretch and surge into the postseason.

As the next couple of years go by, the Mets will get more and more flexible, while the Phillies will mostly be stuck with aging players making a lot of money. Cliff Lee certainly helps their chances in 2011, but it also helps accelerate their demise as repeat divisional champions.

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Blogger Conference Call with Sandy Alderson

This evening Mets General Manager Sandy Alderson took the time to have a conference call with many of our favorite Mets blogs, including this one.  Everyone asked great questions, and Alderson’s answers were very enlightening and thought out.  Michael Baron wrote up a lot of it here. The Mets tweeted some of the conversation as well.

(You can follow me on Twitter too!) Sandy is doing a live webcast on Monday, so if there is still a question you’d like to see answered, go ask it!

As a representative of the optimistic fan base, or what still exists of it, I asked a suitably optimistic question of Sandy:  “You’ve mentioned being somewhat restricted in what you can spend this offseason, but if things go well and the Mets are in contention around the All-Star Break, what type of flexibility do you have to add a player or two to improve the club and keep them there?”

His response was positive.  He didn’t laugh at the idea of the Mets being in contention or talk about focusing on the future.  He said that that is the position they want to be in, and he would have to ability to add the pieces they need. He also suggested that if the Mets were in that position he would expect the attendance to reflect that.

In essence, he’s going to do the best he can to put the best team on the field and he hopes we’ll be prompted to go out and enjoy the games.  He ended the call saying we should do this again, and the entire experience left me feeling good about the Mets, and anxious for the season.

I’ll try to update this post with links to other write-ups as I see them, although you should know where to look by now. Mets Merized Online wins the award for speed, at least of what I’ve seen.

On the Black

The Eddie Kranepool Society

Mets Police

Very good transcript at Amazin’ Avenue

Matthew Artus
Faith and Fear in Flushing

Mets Today

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The Mets Drastically Different Lineup

 

It’s likely the Mets Opening Day lineup will contain seven of nine different names.  Mike Pelfrey will likely be pitching instead of Johan Santana, which definitely hurts, but offensively the team will be starting the season off on a much better foot.  We’ve got Ike Davis at first instead of Mike Jacobs.  Probably Daniel Murphy at second base instead of Luis Castillo.  Jose Reyes instead of Alex Cora. Josh Thole instead of Rod Barajas.  Angel Pagan instead of Jeff Francoeur and Carlos Beltran instead of Gary Matthews Jr.

 

 

Alex Cora                               Jose Reyes
Luis Castillo                           Angel Pagan
David Wright                         Carlos Beltran
Mike Jacobs                          David Wright
Jason Bay                             Ike Davis
Gary Matthews Jr.                Jason Bay
Jeff Francoeur                      Daniel Murphy
Rod Barajas                         Josh Thole
Johan Santana                     Mike Pelfrey

 

Doesn’t that make you feel a little better about 2011?  Jacobs and Matthews didn’t get a ton of time, but the other four guys did.  Add in a non-concussed Jason Bay and that lineup really should compete with anyone.
I know there is some reservations about not making big changes and running out the same lineup in a “hope and pray” scenario that no one gets hurt and guys return to some semblance of career average, but there is a little bit of hope and crossing of fingers for every player.  It’s easy for some, particularly boisterous talk show hosts, to look at the Mets situation and not see how Mets fans would want to come out to watch the same guys play that have failed in years past.  It’s easy to assign blame to the guys that were a part of it all and that are more front and center, easier to pick at Reyes’ animated behavior or one pitch that beat Beltran.

 

The problem hasn’t been that Beltran or Reyes are bad players, but that they haven’t been healthy. Injuries happen.  They’ll happen in 2011 as well.  Alderson doesn’t need to sign big flashy players, but a couple of guys that provide more acceptable backup numbers than what we’ve gotten in past years would go a long way.  Players could get rest when they needed it. The Mets could be more conservative with injuries without feeling the need to have players play hurt, not go on the DL, or be rushed back from injury before they’re ready.

The biggest reasons for the Mets failures the last couple of years are in the first column, not the second.  And the biggest reason they might not succeed in 2011 (Obviously we’re talking offense right now.  The Mets pitched well last year, we’ll see what’s in store in 2011) is if the lineup features 2011’s version of Mike Jacobs a little too regularly.