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My Problems With FIP

The formula for the Sabermetric stat FIP is (13HR + 3(BB+HBP-IBB) – 2K )/ IP That’s then added to a constant to equate it to normal ERA ranges.  (xFIP  provides some extrapolation on HR rate per fly ball, but my overall concerns remain the same)

 

The general idea with FIP is to try to determine how well a pitcher pitches without luck and the fielders altering his results.  Once the ball leaves the bat it could be a bloop that no one reaches, or a screaming liner that happens to be right at someone.  This is not affected by the pitch the pitcher throws, and the only way a pitcher can be sure of a result is to strike out the hitter.

 

It’s supposed to be irrelevant to the statistic. FIP treats a screaming double off the wall the same as Jeterian soft groundout to short.  Except it doesn’t really.  The ground out is .1 IP and lowers FIP by raising the denominator in the formula.  This is part of the problem with the stat.  It does successfully remove bad defense from the equation by not penalizing a pitcher for an infield single that or a liner that finds a hole, but it also credits pitchers with good defense with extra outs.

 

The stat was created with the assertion that pitchers lose control of what happens after ball hits bat.  So the idea is the pitcher is ‘better’ if he can overmatch the hitter and beat him via being a better pitcher than he is a hitter, and striking him out.  Another problem is the pitcher does have some control over the batted ball, and no one knows how much or how to measure it.  You can see a pitcher one year induce a ton of soft contact, and then all of a sudden induce a lot of strong contact another year.  That’s hard to measure.  Matt Cain is one example, and Chris Young another, of pitchers that always seem to outperform their FIP.

 

Actually inducing soft contact, something groundball pitcher seem to do better, is something that _can_ be done.  As of yet statisticians haven’t been able to conclusively measure soft contact, and I’m not even sure pitchers can actively decide to do it with any real consistency.   It may be that the quality of contact can be reduced by keeping the hitter guessing.  Ground balls yield more outs than fly balls, but it’s also true that the times you most want to throw a pitch that gets more ground balls is also the times that the hitter knows you want to throw that pitch.

 

No stats are perfect, and we shouldn’t hold FIP to a higher standard, or use it in a more absolute manner, than any other stat.  I’m certainly not saying that we shouldn’t ever reference FIP, or that we should abandon the quest to expand our knowledge of baseball.

 

I haven’t done the math, but I could see FIP being a stat useful for picking the reliever you most want to bring into runners on situation. These pitchers should theoretically be the most likely to get an out without a runner scoring due to a lucky bloop, or a home run doing lots of damage. This is especially true of relievers because their smaller sample size of innings pitched leads to much more variance in their ERA.

 

The difference in ERA and FIP can also be telling, although not conclusively.  Looking to see how much a pitcher’s FIP is off from his ERA can be a way to predict if he’s getting lucky, or unlucky.  It’s not a tell-all though; it can be used as a warning flag to look further, but it’s not a direct relationship from out-performing FIP to being due for a drop off in performance.   Jonathan Niese will be a good study in this this year.  His ERA last year, as it’s been most years, was much higher than his FIP. He had a 3.36 FIP and a 4.40 ERA.  He’s rewarded for striking out a lot of guys, but the mounting data is starting to suggest that the high amount of hits he gives up aren’t just due to luck and bad fielding.

 

I’ve started playing around with some of the numbers, but haven’t gotten that far.  Tweaking the formula to use batters faced instead of innings pitched doesn’t make that much of a difference.  The high numbers of batters bad pitchers face tends to lower their numbers in that case.  Pitchers like Oliver Perez who face a zillion guys but then strike out the side to get out of danger would do well in that situation, but even the simplest of analysts knows that’s not a good job.

 

Next I tried correcting for balls in play.  Instead of simply batters faced, I removed the percentages of outs from balls in play that simple luck would turn into outs.  Then I adjusted the formula to take away extra outs the defense provided, or add back in outs they should’ve made back towards normal.   This looks better, but I’m still looking at the numbers and playing with the formulas to see if I like it.   I’m also still just trying to figure out how to smoothly create and maintain a database of baseball stats, so there is a lot of trial and error going on over here.

 

Sabermetrics have given us a much better understanding of baseball, but it’s only just starting.  They got there by questioning the established logic, and it’s a philosophy we shouldn’t abandon just because we’ve taken a big step in understanding.

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Apparently Optimism Is Not A Sin

Ted Berg over at Tedquarters.net is doing a four part series on “If absolutely everything falls right” and looking at the upward bounds of expectations for the Mets roster.  It’s nice to know I’m not the only person looking at the optimistic avenue.  I was beginning to feel a little like Highlander as an optimistic Mets fan.

 

I think this post on the infield  is very reasonable, and it’s even possible that some of the players overshoot his proposed projections.   The most unrealistic part is them all staying healthy all year.  Still, health is not an unreasonable expectation.  I’m not expecting Wright to break his back again, or Ike Davis managing to fall in exactly the wrong way to ruin his season.

 

His second part, on the outfield, seems a tad more pessimistic to me.  Maybe Bay does rebound a little.  I’ve mentioned that here in the past, but  I think we’re doing a disservice to Duda in projecting his ceiling defensively as “not terrible”.  His outfield experience in the minors was mostly in left, and he’s only got about half a season of time in the majors.  Perhaps his hulking frame tends to make one  believe he’ll never be good defensively, but I think he can hit “not terrible” just by having all of Spring Training to start at the position and build on it as the year goes on.   He can clearly hit the baseball, and if he were to improve on what he did last year he could be our own version of Mike Stanton.  In fact, their offensive WAR on baseball-reference were very similar factoring in playing time.   Ralph Kiner and Keith Hernandez both love his swing, for whatever that’s worth.

 

Ted dreams of Jason Bay having a great first half and becoming a trade chip and Kirk Nieuwenhuis forcing his way up to the majors.  Personally I think that’s unrealistic, because I don’t think a half season of good baseball is going to yield the type of return to make it worth trading him.  He’s not Carlos Beltran and his trade would come along with 24 or so million dollars owed to him and a possible vesting option.  More likely if Nieuwenhuis does warrant a call-up, Andres Torres will become a fourth outfielder.  If this happens we’ll lose a little defensively, but gain a lot offensively, including some flexibility with defensive replacements.

 

So what’s the highest fWAR we can expect from the Mets offense?  I’m going to say somewhere in the 28-30  range.  This would’ve had them 4th in the NL last year and best in the NL East.   I think this number represents of everything goes well.  It’s certainly possible that if one or two things turn out to go extraordinarily well, they could shoot past it.  Because fWAR heavily relies on fielding, if the pitching does better there will be less balls in play and less fielding damage to the values.  I assume part three and four of Ted’s series will deal with the rotation and the bullpen.

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2012 New York Met as 2011 New York Giant

Every year there are tons of examples of teams that were deemed to have no chance to be competitive that make surprising runs deep into the playoff rounds and sometimes win it all.  The New York Football Giants were given very little chance to make the playoffs, and even less once they started piling up injuries in the preseason.  Tom Coughlin’s job was in jeopardy nearly every week, and Eli Manning was laughed at for calling himself elite.  The Giants were soundly criticized for mismanaging the cap and for doing nothing in the offseason.

 

Now there are only four teams left.  One of them is the Giants, and no one’s doubting they have a serious shot at winning their game in San Francisco and going to, and perhaps winning, the Super Bowl.

 

Eli Manning won Super Bowl MVP in 2008 in Super Bowl XLII.  That vindicated him some from the critics early in his career, but his failure to win a playoff since had brought back the doubts about his talent.  Last year he had a lot of interceptions, and it really downgraded his status with a lot of people.   In a way, it reminds me of David Wright.

 

I have hope that the 2012 David Wright will be a similar story to 2011’s Eli Manning.  David’s strikeouts nicely represent Eli’s interceptions.  Although he doesn’t have a title, Wright was a legitimate MVP candidate in 2007.  In 2012 I expect to see Wright return to that form.  After Eli outplayed Aaron Rodgers on Sunday there were people that were even comparing him to his brother Peyton, who may be the best ever.   When the 2012 MLB season ends, no longer will we have to debate if he’s the best third baseman in the NL East.  Instead critics will struggle to find a third baseman in all of baseball as good as he is.

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Other Citi Field Changes?

Last spring we were faced with the shocking news that Brooklyn Brewery beers would no longer be available at the Shake Shack stands out in center field.  Every season at most stadiums things change from season to season.  Usually they’re small things; advertisers change, menus get tweaked, music changes and mid-inning contests are different.  Maybe there’s a new dunk tank, a home run apple, or a new banner or piece of memorabilia celebrating the home team.

 

This season the Mets are making major structural changes to the dimensions and height of the wall.  This won’t have any real affect on the win-loss record, but it’ll probably create more home runs for fans.  At least it’ll create a different seating area that should be interesting.


So what smaller changes can we expect at Citi Field this summer?  The easy one is that Keith’s burger stand will probably become a permanent fixture somewhere and we’ll get some new test product in that space.   Citi Field has an extensive beer list, but what it lacks is local community beers.  While on a Citi Field food tour last season, I was told that some of the concessions were chosen because of their local affiliate.  Cascarino’s is so close that if you called them up and gave them Citi Field’s address, it’d fall within the delivery zone.   Hopefully they’ll take this into account when looking at the beer available next year.  The only local beer outside of the Delta Club was Blue Point’s Toasted Lager at Catch of the Day.  Great beer, but not enough.  Nor is the couple of places you can get Brooklyn Lager.  It doesn’t have to be the perfectly paired beer for Shake Shack, Blue Smoke, or El Verano Taqueria even though it should be.  A handful of craft beer booths around the stadium would work just as well.  Plenty of people in New York love their craft beer and want to drink something more than Budweiser at a baseball game even if Anheuser-Busch is going to brand the cans with a Mets logo this year.

 

Ommegang is a New York brewery from Cooperstown.  There should be a tap of beer from there in every stadium across the country in my opinion.  There’s already some in the Delta Club, so why not make it available to all?   I bet it’d be possible to get Brooklyn Brewery, or a different local brewery, to contract-brew specific beers for the Mets.  How cool would it be to be able to get a Tom Seaver Ale, a World’s Fair Unisphere Rye, or a Home Run Apple Cider?

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2012 Mets: The Big Tease

How’s that for a slogan?  This was inspired by the Mets tweeting pictures today of Johan Santana throwing in Port St. Lucie.  It was good news in the sense that his arm didn’t fall off, but throwing in January tells us little about what he’ll do in April.

 

It’s still over a month until pitchers and catchers report, and closer to three until the first real game.  I’m thankful for the Mets sharing these types of things, and love seeing Johan on a baseball field, but ultimately this is a big tease.   There’s still plenty of uncertainty with how Santana’s shoulder will hold up to a full Spring Training and following that, the season.

 

In a way the whole  2012 Mets season may be a tease.  With the finances and roster turnover it very much feels like the Mets are in a holding pattern.  That’s not to say things won’t ultimately turn out good, but there are plenty of question marks we need answers to and a lot of time before we can start finding them.  2012 may be one long quest to find the answers.  What do we really have in Lucas Duda, Josh Thole, Ruben Tejada and Ike Davis?  To what extent can David Wright and Jason Bay rebound?  Are any of the touted pitching prospects going to be knocking on the rotation door for 2013, or sooner?  Is second base the anti-matter to Daniel Murphy‘s matter, causing explosion whenever they come in contact?

 

Stay tuned, because 2012 may be the big tease before we find out where this team is going.

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CRG and Fred Wilpon Don’t Affect Me

I saw this post over at Mets Police about the CRG situation and how fans will root for this team this year.

 

It’s interesting how people sometimes forget that peoples positions, viewpoints, or situations change.  The idea that the Mets hiring CRG could mean they might file for bankruptcy and one day have to sell is not mutually exclusive from the Mets statement that they didn’t hire CRG to file for bankruptcy.
The same was true of the original Mets statement that the Madoff situation would not affect the Mets.  It’s easy to look back now and accuse them of lying, but the situation probably spiraled beyond what they expected, including the contining poor economy to the reach of the Picard lawsuit.  You could say perhaps it was just short-sighted and that they should’ve known it was going to affect the team, but I’m not so sure that’s the case either. If the Mets had not gone into a downward spiral themselves and instead had won games, stayed healthy, and been competitive there is a chance they would’ve remained profitable.
If you want to read into every statement and play conspiracy theory that’s fine.  Chances are there are stuff Fred Wilpon is glossing over and stuff he’s flat out ignoring.  He could even be lying about certain things.  We’re not obligated to know everything about the behind the scenes investments or have access to all financial statements of the team we root for or the owners of that team.  No one’s doubting that the current financial situation around the Mets is bad, cost us Jose Reyes, and looks dire. Still, hiring CRG was actually a positive move.  It’s not a “Hey look at the embarrassment this team is” move, it’s one aimed at getting the team righted.
CRG was _not_ hired by Sterling or the Wilpons, and the negative revenue situation does not go away with a new owner.  In the same breath people are criticizing the Mets for spending wildly to get themselves into this mess, and criticizing the Wilpons for being too broke to spend wildly to try to get the team out of this mess.  Some question who would want to be a minority investor in this team, but isn’t it also a valid question to ask who would want to buy a team that they’d have to put tens of millions of dollars into each year?  Remember they lost 70 million last year.  You can see value in the future of this team as both a minority or majority owner if you look.
You’re welcome to not spend money on the team if you want. The Wilpons won’t see a dime anyway, no matter what you spend, since the team is losing money. Winning solves the Mets problems, losing exacerbates it.  Nothing you do will change that.  If you can give up the enjoyment derived from going to see a game, that’s fine.  Just remember you’re also withdrawing your support from Ike Davis.  David Wright will notice when he hits a walk-off grand slam and there are only 12 people cheering.  Do you think he’ll remember that when he becomes a free agent at the end of one of the next two seasons? Did Jose Reyes notice how empty it was in front of his supposedly loving fans in September while he was chasing Mets history?
Some people phrase it as “Choose the Mets, not the Wilpons”. To me that means enjoying Mets baseball whenever I can get it and not worrying about who the owner is.  I derive no joy from who owns the Mets, or who runs the Mets.  All I keep thinking is that if the Wilpons selling is so important to you, you’d almost have to be disappointed if the Mets went on a miracle run and went to the World Series, because the resultant cash flow could cement them as owners.  So I’ll stick to hoping for that miracle run and let the financial stuff shake out where it may.

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Quick thoughts on Mets and CRG

Here’s the inital report from Eno Sarris at Amazin’ Avenue about the Mets hiring CRG, the turnaround consultants that handled the Texas Rangers’ sale.

 

Dan Lewis has some interesting remarks about it in his twitter feed last night as well. (Mostly directed at Adam Rubin)

 

Probably too soon to really tell what it means with any certainty, especially for an outsider, but it’s probably a win-win for fans.    I don’t really care who owns the Mets as long as they can spend money and build the team as needed.   if CRG leads the Wilpons towards a sale that’s fine.  (As long as we don’t end up with someone worse owning the team, which is always a possibility)  If they fix the cash flow problems via a chapter 11 or whatever it is they do?  That’s fine too.  Whatever gets the team out of the red the fastest.

 

Okay, that’s enough murky financial mumbo jumbo to last me at least until they announce the minority owners sale thing.  Back to watching the Islanders and Giants.

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Hofstra’s Mets 50th Anniversary Conference

Just helping to spread the word a little about the conference.  Should be a good time.

 

Head over to Faith and Fear in Flushing for more details.

 

The Hofstra Cultural Center’s conference honoring the 50th Anniversary of the New York Mets is coming Thursday to Saturday, April 26-28, and if you’re in interested in contributing a paper or presentation regarding some aspect of your favorite ballclub, please contact me at faithandfear@gmail.com. Full details are posted here (with some more information here).

This conference, celebrating the Mets at this milestone juncture in their history, was the brainchild of the late Dana Brand, a great friend to all Mets fans in blogging and in rooting. Dana was a longtime professor at Hofstra and got the conference moving toward reality before his sudden passing last May. The rest of us working on it look forward to pushing it across the finish line in his memory, and you are most heartily invited to join in that push.

We’ve received some great proposals that examine the Mets from all kinds of angles since first mentioning the conference in November, and more great proposals are welcome through next week. Again, please e-mail me with your ideas or any questions, and I’ll do my best to be of assistance. Thank you.

This also seems like a decent time to ask you to consider making a contribution to the Dana Brand Memorial Scholarship Fund at Hofstra. You can send online contributions to www.hofstra.edu/giving. Under “Gift Designation,” please specify the Dana Brand Memorial Scholarship Fund. If you prefer to contribute by check, please send whatever you can to Meredith Celentano; Assistant Vice President for Development; 102Q Hofstra Hall; Hempstead, NY 11549. Anything you can do to help a student carry on in Dana’s name is greatly appreciated.

 

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2012: Can It Get Worse?

The 2012 Mets team is so devoid of any expectation that it’s almost a lock that we’ll be pleasantly surprised.

 

The way things have gone, it’s easy to forget that the Mets actually have a lot of talent on the roster.

 

With Ike Davis, David Wright and Daniel Murphy leading the way, the Mets offense should do pretty well.  Lucas Duda looks like a real good player.  Josh Thole and Ruben Tejada haven’t lit anything on fire, but they’re both still pretty young and have some value.

 

The Mets redid the bullpen with some talented and reliable arms.  They’ve got some guys returning that did a good job, and should be much improved there.

 

The starting pitching is obviously where one sees the biggest holes, but it’s probably not quite that dire.  Mike Pelfrey and Dillon Gee will probably never be stars, but they both have shown they can be inning eaters or pitch that occasional gem.  Jon Niese has dealt with some injuries, but he’s a high strikeout guy still learning and growing.  R.A. Dickey is a very good pitcher and has proved he’s no one-hit wonder.   The big question mark is obviously Johan Santana and if he’ll experience any setbacks or injuries during the year.

 

There’s more talent on this team than people seem to be talking about right now.   Some of it may it may be suspect, and some may end up injured, but it’s unlikely it all will and it’s also possible some of the younger players take unforeseen strides forward.  They may not win 95 games, but they’re not the 60-70 wins, lock for last place team that they’re being portrayed as.   Sometimes you have to push aside some of the doom and gloom and take a closer look.

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What About Howie….and Kevin?

What about Kevin Burkhardt as Wayne Hagin’s replacement?  Assuming he’s even interested in switching back to radio.  I’m not sure if switching from SNY to WFAN is considered a step up, even getting to call the games.

 

He’s familiar with calling Mets games, as he does a couple of games on SNY in Spring Training.  He’s doing Dallas Cowboys games on the radio this season, so he’s familiar with the medium and the need to describe the action.  I’ve thought he’s done a good job in the spring, although I haven’t heard him on the radio.

 

Presumably SNY had to give him permission for the Cowboys job, given that it overlapped a couple of Mets games.  Could it be that they were giving him a trial, on someone else’s dime, to see how he’d do on radio?  He’s been around for a while and he knows the team and it’s history.  He’s actually been here longer than everyone in the dugout sans David Wright.

 

I’m just theorizing here; I don’t even know if he’s being considered or wants the job.  Still, I think you could do a lot worse and Mets fans would certainly take to him better than Wayne Hagin.  Of course, Toby Hyde would be a good choice as well.