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Mets vs. Braves: Important, but not THAT Important

Huge three game series for the Mets coming up here, but most of it’s about perception and confidence.  No three games in July ever decide anything, but winning and losing this series is the difference between being within striking distance of the division lead going into the break, and being clearly the second-best team.

If the Mets win this series they will be respected throughout the league as contenders.  They’ll be brought up in all trade talks for big acquisitions.  When analysts adjust their season predictions, the Mets will make it onto a lot of their lists.  David Wright will again be recognized as one of the best players in the game, people will stop taking as many pot shots at the Mets, their minor league system, their medical staff and their decision making.

If they lose and fall four or more games back from the division lead things won’t be as rosy during the break.  Analysts will find a way to justify their decision in the winter that the Mets have too many holes to make the playoffs.  They’ll talk up Bobby Cox, they’ll talk about the Phillies having a good second half.  Jose Reyes will be described as injury prone.  Carlos Beltran will be portrayed as an 80 year old grandma that can’t walk, much less play CF.  They’ll question Jerry Manuel and Omar Minaya and their ability to do their job.

All off the results of one series.  If a sweep happens either way, the reactions will be even more extreme.

The series is really not that big a deal.  It’s an important series to try to win and not let the Braves get too far ahead, but even if they’re four games out going into the break, that’s hardly insurmountable given how many games they still play against each other.    Still, it’s a chance for the Mets to put the first half to rest on a positive note, take a deep breath, and soar into the second half with the addition of Carlos Beltran.

If you’re headed out to Citi Field for any of these games, the Mets are having a fan appreciation weekend.  They’re doing a lot of seat upgrades, signed giveaways, and handing out gift cards.  On Sunday 25 lucky fans will receive game-worn jerseys.  Enjoy!

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The Obvious About Instant Replay

Yesterday at the Mets game the home plate umpire ruled a pitch by Pelfrey to have been a caught foul tip and an out. Scott Rolen argued that it hit him (even if he didn’t know where), and Dusty Baker, the Reds Manager, came out an argued as well. The umpires then conferred and subsequently overruled the call.

Is this really any different than an NFL coach throwing a challenge flag? It does have a lot of similiarities, butthe game last night lacked one big part of what the NFL does: They didn’t go look at video replays. Some of the very valid arguments against instant replay, and ones I agree with, are with delay of game issues and freezing action on the game to correct the call. There are a lot of things that would need to be worked out to get any sort of instant replay to be effective and accepted.

All of those problems were still evident last night, but without the benefit of technology to verify that the call was correct. We got all of the drawbacks without any of the benefit. Umpires either need to stand by the calls as they are made, with the possible exception of a different umpire being 100% certain that the call was wrong because the original umpire that made the call was blocked or didn’t see it, or use instant replay to get it correct. Standing around and discussing it and guessing at what happened is not benefiting anyone.

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Howie’s LIRR Joke

I enjoy listening to Howie Rose and Wayne Hagin on the radio during Mets games occasionally.   I think they both do a good job, and occasionally you get some amusing sound bytes.  This one’s a little bit of an “inside joke” that you’ll probably only get If you’ve lived in Long Island, but it does speak to Howie’s roots and got a laugh out of me at least.

“Popped high in the air, foul, over by the first base railing. Long run for Uggla.  He changes at Jamaica, gets to the railing, and the ball falls beyond his reach.  He covered a whole lot of territory. “

Audio Clip

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These Mets Are Scary

Mets Win
Mets Win

This Mets team can be pretty scary.  I certainly thought they had a chance to be very competitive coming into this year, but it would’ve been hard for anyone to predict it would evolve the way it did.   The team may be the team you’d least want to face in the National League, because you never know what you’re going to get from them, they can hit you from all angles.  People talk about Philadelphia’s offense being scary, but when you get down to it the Phillies are a team built on offense; if you pitch well against them you can win any of the games.

The Mets can baffle a team’s offense on any day.  It could happen via R.A. Dickey’s knuckleball dancing towards the plate, or it could happen with Pelfrey’s dominate sinking fastball.  The next day Jon Niese could unleash his curveball, or Johan Santana could be on the mound with his two Cy Young awards.   The bullpen has also been very good, regularly racking up scoreless innings.  They’ve got some hard throwers, some specialists, and Frankie Rodriguez.

Offensively the Mets have the talent to beat a team in a couple of ways.  They’re capable of hitting big home runs one day, and the next day battering pitching to a tune of 14 runs without a long ball.  They’re aggressive, steal bases, take extra bases on base hits, capitalize on errors and play hard.  They’re capable of coming back from deficits, don’t quit until the game is over, and even if a starting pitcher is shutting them down, they’re capable of waking up against a reliever and winning a game.

They seem to have the right mixture of confidence and cockiness, and all reports suggest they have great clubhouse chemistry. (Winning will do that) Even if they don’t make a trade, it looks like they’ll be getting Carlos Beltran back to the lineup which would be about as big a mid-season acquisition as you can find.  They’re already in prime playoff position, and they’ve got plenty of guys looking to have a better second half including Johan Santana, Jason Bay, Luis Castillo, and Jose Reyes.   This is a team to look out for, and it’s looking like the final series before the All-Star break against the Braves is going to be a big one.

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All-Star Votes and David Wright Foam Finger

WrightTrot
Wright Trots home after his first Home Run of the Season

We should all be voting for the Mets to make the All-Star Game.  I know some fans think they should just stay home and rest, but in most cases the players themselves don’t want to stay home and rest, would rather have the honor of an All-Star appearance, would be running around doing media appearances anyway, and if they really need the rest they’d bow out.  So let’s vote our Mets into the game.   More All-Star appearances by Mets just increases their presumed value to the national audience and their overall resume.

David Wright has a chance at catching Placido Polanco of the hated Phillies, and would certainly be a deserving starter.  Additionally, the Mets have announced that the first 20,000 fans at Citi Field for Wednesday’s game against the Tigers will receive a Blue “Make Wright #1” Foam Finger.

Jose Reyes got a slow start to the season off the thyroid issue, but he’s back to playing ball like an All-Star, and there is no reason we shouldn’t vote for him to be there.

Rod Barajas has been a great addition to our team.  Why not honor him with a vote?

Most importantly, Angel Pagan has been an amazing fill-in for Carlos Beltran and extremely valuable.  Everyone reads stats differently, but there are categories where Angel Pagan excels.  WAR, Wins Above Replacement, a stat that tries to calculate how much a player contributes to the success of a team over an easy to find replacement, lists Angel Pagan as the top centerfielder in the National League.  Not just that, but he’s tied for 7th overall! (Wright is second).  So voting for Pagan wouldn’t be a homer pick, he actually deserves it.

Since the ballot contains the AL portion too, my general philosophy is to vote for guys that have a chance to beat out Yankees.  Justin Morneau is one that can, and should, beat out Mark Texiera.  Andrus for SS and Pedroia for 2B are both long shots, but they’re the runners up at the moment.

We should all be voting for the Mets to make the All-Star Game.  I know some fans think they should just stay home and rest, but in most cases the players themselves don’t want to stay home and rest, would rather have the honor of an All-Star appearance, would be running around doing media appearances anyway, and if they really need the rest they’d bow out.  So let’s vote our Mets into the game.   More All-Star appearances by Mets just increases their presumed value to the national audience and their overall resume.
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Mets Slowly Vanquishing Their Demons

The Mets are slowly but surely erasing the negatives of the past few seasons and vanquising their demons into the nether.  They are putting the past behind them and setting it up nicely for a bright future.

David Wright’s Power:  David Wright has already surpassed his home run totals from last year, proving it was just a fluke.  He’s had big home runs, multi-home run games, and some absolute bombs.  Maybe now that the league realizes his power his back they’ll pitch to him a little more tentatively and he’ll be able to cut back on some of the strikeouts.

David Wright, split seconds from launching a 2-run home run in Camden Yards
David Wright, split seconds from launching a 2-run home run in Camden Yards
 Sloppy Play: Few losses were more gut-wrenching than the Castillo dropped pop-up, but so far this year the Mets have played very solid defense all around.  Jason Bay is a very good outfielder, with good instincts.  Angel Pagan has been playing a good centerfield and has stopped making blunders; who else to vanquish Mets demons than an Angel?  Blanco throws out just about everybody that tries to steal on him, and the infield defense is much improved, especially with a lefty first baseman that isn’t learning the position for the first time in Ike Davis.

Jose Reyes: Jose Reyes is back.  He’s stealing bases, he’s lacing triples into the gaps, he’s hitting the ball out.  He’s terrorizing pitchers and reasserting that he’s one of the most exciting players in this game.  He’s smiling and having fun, and if there is any singular factor that’s making this clubhouse better than it was last year, it’s Jose Reyes’ infectious baseball attitude.   I’m still waiting for more home run handshakes though.

Citi Field: No longer is Citi Field where home runs go to die.  If Citi Field was intimidating Mets hitters, it no longer is.  The Mets have had plenty of home runs at home, and have had some fun walk-off homers.   The park is starting to feel like home and it’s become a big asset to the Mets, who have more home wins than anyone in the majors.  It’s better decorated this year as well.

The Bullpen: The bullpen has been a sore spot for a while, being one of the biggest parts of the two collapses.  So far the bullpen looks pretty solid.  Francisco Rodriguez makes things a little shaky sometimes, but he gets the job done.  There is still a state of flux with Takahashi and Mejia but the bullpen has come through, even more so now that the starters have been able to keep them from being overworked.  The arms and talent are there, so it’s no longer about trying to find someone, anyone, that can do the job.  As the season rolls on and the rotation gets more settling with Takahashi, Maine and/or Perez coming back and contributing, or acquiring another quality starter, the roles in the bullpen will become a little more settled and we’ll know who we can trust.  One things for sure though, we no longer think the game is doomed when the bullpen gets into it, and this knowledge probably helps the offense know they don’t have to score a billion more runs as well.

The Mets are a good solid team.  There are plenty of holes they could patch up, plenty of places to improve, and plenty of losses that will happen.  This team seems to have turned the corner and put the past behind them so that when things aren’t going as perfectly as they are now, I trust that the good times will return and that the Mets will be a fun team to watch all season.   They are no more flawed than anyone else in the league, and they’ve got the talent, the resources, and the desire required to make this season a successful one.

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Why Santana Will Be Just Fine

I wonder how people back before pitch counts and speed guns were able to tell when their ace pitchers were in decline?

Statistical analysis and all the technology of present day definitely enhance the game and our understanding of it, but they also allow us to jump to premature conclusions.

I was in Baltimore over the weekend and I was listening to the post game show after the Saturday game when the Orioles announcers described the next day’s pitching matchup as “Pelfrey, the Mets ace.”  There wasn’t a pause.  It wasn’t qualified by “this year.”

Santana came out this spring and proclaimed himself (when asked to name someone) the best pitcher in the NL East.  So is he a washed up ace trending downward and not even the best pitcher on his own team?

I’d say no.  Of course Pelfrey has been the better pitcher this year so far, but Santana is far from over the hill and washed up.   Actually Santana has a slightly higher ERA, but they have almost identical WHIPs and Ks.  The different result is mainly due to run support, and Pelfrey’s pitches trending more towards ground balls.  It just seems so different because Santana is a Cy Young caliber pitcher and Pelfrey has been a struggling prospect prior to this point.

The case can be made that Santana is merely slumping, not declining.  For one he’s always been a second-half pitcher.  He had surgery last year and had a longer than normal layoff between his last start of 2009 and his first of 2010.  There’s something to be said for building arm strength over a couple of months, and surgery and time off sap that.  You can already see that the velocity is starting to come back up a little bit.  Pitching is a game of adjustments, and right now Santana is having some trouble with control of his pitches.  This is leading to more walks and less strikeouts.  Santana’s track record says that he’s a smart guy and knows what he’s doing out there.  You have to trust that he can make the adjustments needed, and that he’ll be able to do it faster than batters can adjust to him.

The Mets are fighting for first place and arguably Santana is only going to get better.  He’s a big game pitcher, a fighter, and a great ace of this staff to have.  As his game rounds into form, the weather heats up and he builds up arm strength as the Mets march towards October all worries about him being in decline will vanish and we’ll be talking about the Mets having as good a 1-2 punch as anyone else in baseball.

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Visiting Camden Yards to Help the Mets on the Road

I’ve been to a lot of Major League Baseball parks.   Obviously I’ve been to Citi Field and Shea Stadium as well as the two most recent Yankee Stadiums.  I’ve been to Fenway (Hideo Nomo one hit the Blue Jays, which I’d forgotten when I was leaving the Niese game the other day trying to think of the other one-hitters I’d seen), RFK Stadium (The final two games there ever, they were playing the Phillies in late 2007 so I even had a heavy rooting interest), Dolphin Stadium as it was known by that month, Wrigley Field, I was in St. Louis during the demolotion of the last Busch Stadium, Coors Field, Petco Park, Angel Stadium, Dodger Stadium, Oakland Colliseum and the Giant’s Park, which I think was named SBC Park at the time, but I didn’t see the Mets play at any of them.

Reyes Ready to Play
Reyes Ready to Play

The only time I’ve seen the Mets play on the road (I’m ignoring Yankee Stadium, because it doesn’t really count as ‘away’) was a day-night doubleheader in early 2007 in Citizen’s Bank Park.   It was a fun day and was before the rivalry.  Phillies fans had no hope for the season and were reveling in 10000 losses and just hoping not to get destroyed by the defending NL East champs.  This weekend I will add one more road Mets game to my credit, against the Orioles in Camden Yards on Sunday.  It’s supposed to be a great park, it’s a Pelfrey start, and the Mets have won six of seven games I’ve seen this year.

Niese Dominates
Niese Dominates

One thing that’s always odd about watching the Mets on the road is the batting first thing.  All of a sudden the game has started and there is Reyes ready to go.  Usually we have three outs to get settled.  The scoreboard never prompts us to cheer “Lets Go Mets”, even though there will be a very good representation of Mets fans at these games.  Mr. Met is nowhere to be found, and they never play Lazy Mary after Take Me Out To The Ballgame.

I had the Goose Island Seasonal, even if the bartender didnt know what type it was
I had the Goose Island Seasonal, even if the bartender didn't know what type it was

Nonetheless, I’m excited.  I have a good feeling that they’ll finally have a winning road trip, and they’ve gotten off to a good start winning the first game.  I’ll also be in attendance at Yankee Stadium to end the trip, hoping it’ll be a nice capper on a road trip that finally erases the 2009 bad feelings and has the Mets in first place to start the summer.

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No John Maine in the Bullpen

A popular opinion on the handling of John Maine over the years has been to suggest he’d be better in the bullpen.  Metsblog has a post on this topic today as well.  Maine has occasionally struggled to get through 6 innings, although I would emphasize that this isn’t always the case, and some theorize that he’d have more success with being able to go all-out in one or two innings without worrying about a second time through the order.

I disagree.  I’m not saying Maine usually gets far into games, but I don’t think he’s ever a risk to throw three innings and completely task the bullpen.  In April and May of 2009 (throwing out the first June start where he was injured and went on the DL), he averaged around 5.2IP and went 5-3 with a 3.75 ERA.  This includes the first three starts of the season, where a pitcher is normally on a pitch count.  Without those he averaged 6IP over the next seven starts.  He made one bad start over that stretch, allowing five runs (four earned) over 5.1IP.  Every other start was a quality one.  So it’s not that long ago that John Maine both pitched six innings regularly and was good at it.  I know six innings isn’t amazing, but it’s more valuable than a couple of innings here and there out of the bullpen.  2010 was less pleasant for Maine, but he did have three of four quality starts after he redid his mechanics. 

My biggest problem with the idea of moving Maine to the bullpen is injury.  Maine’s injuries have always been injuries that seem fatigue and wear and tear related.  Putting him in a position where he’d possibly pitch, or get ready to pitch, every day would negate days of rest where his shoulder can just recover.   Especially with the way Manuel works the bullpen, I’d be worried this would be cause for further injury.