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Debunking Pessimism

I stumbled across this extremely negative post on the Mets through some Google alerts.  At first I thought it would end up being a Philly blog, but nope. So here’s his five reasons why the Mets will suck post is way off the mark.
 

Spring training games began over the weekend, reminding us all how terrible the Mets will be this year.  Fittingly, Luis Castillo booted a ball at second base yesterday. Way to set the tone for the new season, Luis.

 

Here are my top 5 reasons why the Mets will be terrible this year.

Yes, I’m sure Castillo booting a ball in practice just doomed the Mets all season. Real players never actually make mistakes in Spring Training. Nevermind that Scott Hairston hit two home runs. This is just an excuse to pick on Castillo, who might not even make the team.

5- Ownership: Between borrowing $25 million from Major League Baseball, looking for minority ownership, and facing a multi-million dollar law suit, it will be a distraction all season. If the Wilpons sell the team, maybe it will make them less terrible, but still not good.

I can’t tell you that the Madoff stuff is a positive in any way, but it’s hardly going to be a distraction that causes the Mets to fail.  Wright’s not going to be worrying about the state of the lawsuit while he’s standing out at third base or at the plate.  They won’t even have to talk about it with the press, they’ve all said what they can say and their business is not finance, it’s baseball.  The state of the finances is not going to have much of an effect on the play on the field.  The only real thing it might do is prevent Alderson from adding pieces around the trade deadline, but so far there is no word that it will.  

4- Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez: It’s March 1, and for some reason they are still on the team. Perez got bombed in his first spring training game and Castillo is abysmal. Sadly he could actually win the starting second base position. It is unbelievable the Mets do not have anyone better than Castillo. Please cut your losses. I would rather have Ike Davis play first and second at the same time.

They’re on the team because they can’t lose the Mets games in March.  Whether or not they make the team will solely be based on merit, and it’s not looking good for either of them.  The players that help the Mets win will make the team, and therefore these two players will not be why they suck.  Reyes and Davis do have pretty good range, but I don’t think it’s enough to cover second base too. Plus, the rules don’t allow for only eight players in the lineup.  

3- Carlos Beltran playing right field: How long until he complains about it? I give it a month. Just imagine if he gets off to a bad start on offense. I know what the excuse will be.

#blamebeltran.  This pretty much debunks the whole post right here doesn’t it?  Never mind that he voluntarily moved there or that he’s not a complainer or an excuse maker.  A more valid question is how much regular rest is he going to need, and how well do those knees hold up?  Still, he’s been taking batting practice, and he should be ready to go as a hitter.  This should help prevent a slow start offensively at least.  Carlos Beltran continues to be underappreciated.

2- The NL East: The Phillies are probably the best team in baseball, which is not even fair, but the Braves and Marlins are better than last year too. The Mets are closer to the Nationals.

Just stating it doesn’t make it so. Probably? What if they’re not?  What if someone gets hurt? Their offense no longer looks formidable, Utley hasn’t even played yet and it’s looking more and more likely that Wilson Valdez may be starting for them, and they don’t even know what scrub or under-prepared prospect they’re going to throw out there in right field.  What if they don’t score runs when they pitch these great games, and what if age catches up with them?   The Marlins are not very good.  They’ve got some pitching, but it’s hardly amazing and they’re fielding a AAA offense outside of a couple of guys.  The Mets are capable of being in the thick of things just with their offense and with Pelfrey, Dickey and Niese doing what they did last year.

1- The Pitching Staff:  With Johan out until God knows when, Mike Pelfrey is the ace of the staff. Enough said. The Mets are depending on RA Dickey to repeat what he did last season, which is insane. I can’t even tell you who the 4th and 5th starters are: Chris Young?, Chris Capuano?, Dilon Gee? Oliver Perez??? Who the hell knows. As for the bullpen, talk about a disaster. Hopefully K-Rod won’t get arrested again or injure himself while beating up an old man. I honestly can’t even tell you who else is in the bullpen, so I have no further comments.

Enough said?  Sure, I could agree with that.  Mike Pelfrey was basically the best pitcher in baseball last April.  He had a horrible July, and it’s important that he minimizes that this year, but to dismiss him as crap is silly.  Why is it insane to expect Dickey to be as good as last year?  Did you really watch him all last year, and listen to him talk about pitching, and deduce that it was a fluke? It wasn’t.  He’s learned and adapted, and crafted his knuckleball to be a dangerous weapon.  It’s certainly possible he’s not as good, but the dropoff won’t be that extreme.  The ignorance in the rest of this ‘reason’ is too large to argue with, but I do have faith that some combination of Young and Capuano can give us some quality innings and keep the Mets in the game.  Losing Santana is rough, but given how many of his great games they let turn into losses last year, I’m confident with a little hitting the Mets can win more games that a lesser pitcher starts than they did last year with Santana on the mound.

 

I do have something good for Mets fans to look forward to. On Tuesday night (After the Knicks game) MSG will have a 4 part series on the ’86 Mets. Bar fights, sex, drugs, alcohol and more sex, drugs and alcohol- the good old days. Should be interesting. I guarantee it will be better than anything the Mets do on the field.

I’ll grant a pass on this statement since it was written before hand, but most accounts I’ve seen of the show have been pretty negative.  You can take your ‘guarantee’ and shove it, the Mets are going to be interesting this year.  Optimism is not a sin.

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I’d Buy This: R.A. Dickey Jersey

Dickey is awesome. He’s such a fun player to root for.   He’s a  smart guy, he truly cares and appreciates the game.  He’s finally finding success after a middling career.  So why aren’t the Mets promoting more gear with his name on it?  Even without the puns?  Sure, you can customize stuff online, but that’s not the same as being able to walk into the Mets shop and buy a variety of Dickey jerseys and gear.  The Mets also don’t get the same profits due to revenue sharing if it’s personalized and bought online compared to in their shops.  This niche does get filled, but it’s filled via third party retailers like the7line.com.
The same could be said for Pagan.  This team needs to get better at embracing fan favorites, even if they’re not the best players on the team or signed to long term contracts.  Joe Smith came up and had a good April and fans were excited.  I’m sure some would’ve bought a shirt. Pedro Feliciano was a reliever, but he was a very good one and he’d been here long enough that maybe some fans would’ve wanted to honor that.

Have some fun with it. Make a promotion out of it.  Declare it Dickey day.  It would be similar to the foam fingers the Mets made that said “Make Wright #1” as part of an All-Star campaign.  It’s quirky and a bit silly, but it’s also fun and harmless attention.  Give out halos, or free Angel Pagan t-shirts, and have an “Angels in the outfield” promotion.

Addendum:  Modells had a huge online sale a couple of weeks ago. (Mets Police, via Media Goon, notes a sale on jerseys today) So I purchased items you won’t find at Citi Field.  I got myself a Pagan jersey (The new cream alternate from last year), and a blue Dickey name and number shirt.  Also, an “I Like Ike” shirt, because..well you know.   In addition to this I bought two shirts for my wife.
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What To Watch For In Mets Spring Training Camp

All teams have a variety of different roster spots open for the taking in Spring Training.  So what should we be watching in Port St. Lucie with the Mets?  (And if you’re watching on SNY, the games will be in HD this year!)

Tiki Hut at Digital Domain Park

Health
Keeping players healthy is definitely number one. This includes building up arm strength and recovering from an injury that ended last season, or simply not getting hurt.  Jason Bay, Francisco Rodriguez and Daniel Murphy ended up the season on the disabled list. The primary goal from them is to get to Opening Day without experiencing any pain or lingering effects of what ailed them last year.  Bay and Rodriguez have both been reported healthy and pain free, but it’ll be good to show that in real spring training games.  Daniel Murphy has had some knee issues, and the best shot he has at winning a job this season is to not be hampered by lingering pain that prevents him from putting in the work both at second base, and at the plate, that he needs.

Some guys have been injured frequently, to various degrees, and may be at risk again.  Chris Young, Chris Capuano, Carlos Beltran are three of the most recent cases.  Beltran has mainly been dealing with one issue, a lack of cartilage in his knee, and may have that under control via an understanding of what ails him, and a knee brace that keeps his knee bones from bruising further.  Beltran’s goal this spring is to prove the brace hasn’t reduced his range significantly in center field, and to get the reps at the plate he needs to keep up to speed without needlessly stressing his knee in exhibition games.

Young and Capuano have more to prove if they want to earn a spot on this team and continue contributing for the entire season.  Consistent starts this spring with no reports of pain or soreness would go a long way to giving us confidence that can give us some quality innings.

Jose Reyes often gets mentioned in the injury discussion, but really he was healthy for most of 2011.  He had a medical condition that had him almost literally rolling out of bed and into the field in April, and had a slight oblique strain mid-season that was so poorly managed by the Mets and their manager that it probably cost him twice as many games as it needed to.  Players get nicked u, and an oblique strain isn’t something to worry about.  Given these parameters, it seems like 2010 is the absolute floor of what we can expect out of Reyes for any given season, and given a full spring worth of preparation it’s not unfair to expect him to be much better again.

The Stars
The results may not matter, but it’s still fun to watch some of the best in the game play.  The Mets have a nice core of excellent players.  David Wright and Jason Bay can launch home runs and bash the ball all over the place.  Jose Reyes can run wild and be his energetic, fun to watch self.  Carlos Beltran may go back to making difficult defensive plays look easy while blasting home runs.

While maybe not on the same level, yet, many other players that have jobs secured are fun to watch.  Ike Davis has some great power and is maturing as a hitter.  R.A. Dickey is an amazing guy and watching him taunt hitters with the knuckleball is always fun.  Jon Niese progressing with his devastating curveball or Bobby Parnell blowing guys away with his occasionally triple digit fastball will make highlights reels all spring long.

Rounding Out the Roster
Which guys will make the team seemingly out of nowhere?  Who will have a monster spring and launch themselves into the conversation for 5th starter, or long reliever, or first pinch hitter off the bench?  A lot of the bullpen is open for guys looking to have a strong showing.  Beyond second base that has a couple of favorites, but is an open competition, there are a couple of different ways the Mets could fill out the extra bench spots.  Could it be Nick Evans? Or Scott Hairston?  What about Jason Pridie or Justin Turner?

The Future
What’s more exciting than seeing what may be on tap for the years to come? Jenrry Mejia make a lot of noise last spring, enough that he mistakenly got a roster spot in the bullpen.  He’ll be exciting to watch this year to see how’s he progressed and if he’s someone we can look forward to in the future.  You’ve got some possible outfielders that look exciting, like Lucas Duda or Kirk Nieuwenhuis.

The Broadcast
Besides the games finally being in high definition, Gary, Keith, Ron, and Kevin are a joy to listen to do a game.  Just like Spring Training is a little more lax than the regular season, so are the broadcasts.  Obviously most of us don’t have the opportunity to listen to them live, because most games are on at 1pm, but if you do get a chance it’s well worth it.

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Sandy Alderson’s First Mets Test

Sandy Alderson has arrived at the baseball winter meetings, and with it comes his first real test as Mets GM. So far the only thing he’s done this year is talk and deal with some expiring contracts and options.  With most of that out of the way it’s time to start building the team for 2011, and he’s suggested he’ll return from Orlando with some new players when the Winter Meetings are over.

Jeff Francis Climbing the Coors Field Steps
Jeff Francis Climbing the Coors Field Steps

Reports on what type of money and players Sandy will be looking for vary, but reading between the lines seems to suggest that he’s looking for short contracts and isn’t looking to overpay anyone, particularly if they’re not a given to help out. So with the Mets needing at least two starting pitchers (Under the assumption that Santana won’t be ready for Opening Day, Oliver Perez is not getting a spot, and the prospects will be seasoning in Buffalo) it looks like Sandy is looking for that pitcher shrouded in doubt, and possibly coming off an njury, to bring in.  They’ve already been linked to Chris Young and Jeff Francis, so it does appear Sandy is on the right track.

Based on what’s leaked this coming week, who the Mets are linked to, who Sandy talks to and who he signs to be a New York Met next year will be the first thing we really get to judge our new general manager on.  First impressions are pretty important and Mets fans are likely to be peeved if the guy Alderson brings back is someone like Bruce Chen.  Scrolling through the free agent list does turn up some interesting names with various degrees of set-backs, and it’ll be interesting to see who the Mets feel can contribute in the future.

Despite the nature of the fans to overreact to a signing Alderson may or may not make during the Winter Meetings, what is important is that it contributes to winning.  Many of the same people that wanted Omar Minaya fired on the spot for giving a minor league deal to R.A. Dickey are now talking about giving Dickey an extension. Hopefully Sandy takes a good hard look at what’s available, opens a dialogue with a half dozen different agents, and sets the stage for the Mets to have an excellent rotation, and team, in 2011.  I’m looking forward to seeing what happens.

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These Mets Are Scary

Mets Win
Mets Win

This Mets team can be pretty scary.  I certainly thought they had a chance to be very competitive coming into this year, but it would’ve been hard for anyone to predict it would evolve the way it did.   The team may be the team you’d least want to face in the National League, because you never know what you’re going to get from them, they can hit you from all angles.  People talk about Philadelphia’s offense being scary, but when you get down to it the Phillies are a team built on offense; if you pitch well against them you can win any of the games.

The Mets can baffle a team’s offense on any day.  It could happen via R.A. Dickey’s knuckleball dancing towards the plate, or it could happen with Pelfrey’s dominate sinking fastball.  The next day Jon Niese could unleash his curveball, or Johan Santana could be on the mound with his two Cy Young awards.   The bullpen has also been very good, regularly racking up scoreless innings.  They’ve got some hard throwers, some specialists, and Frankie Rodriguez.

Offensively the Mets have the talent to beat a team in a couple of ways.  They’re capable of hitting big home runs one day, and the next day battering pitching to a tune of 14 runs without a long ball.  They’re aggressive, steal bases, take extra bases on base hits, capitalize on errors and play hard.  They’re capable of coming back from deficits, don’t quit until the game is over, and even if a starting pitcher is shutting them down, they’re capable of waking up against a reliever and winning a game.

They seem to have the right mixture of confidence and cockiness, and all reports suggest they have great clubhouse chemistry. (Winning will do that) Even if they don’t make a trade, it looks like they’ll be getting Carlos Beltran back to the lineup which would be about as big a mid-season acquisition as you can find.  They’re already in prime playoff position, and they’ve got plenty of guys looking to have a better second half including Johan Santana, Jason Bay, Luis Castillo, and Jose Reyes.   This is a team to look out for, and it’s looking like the final series before the All-Star break against the Braves is going to be a big one.