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Tim Byrdak And New Mets Competitions

Tim Byrdak will be on the disabled list until at least May.  This opens up a competition for lefty reliever in a Mets camp that hadn’t previously had a lot of jobs available.  Couple that with Scott Hairston‘s injury, and the door is open for some guys to make the team that previously didn’t have much of a chance.

 

This may not be a bad thing.  Tim Byrdak settled down after a bad start, but he wasn’t making anyone forget Pedro Feliciano.  Similiarly, Scott Hairston ended up with pretty decent numbers, but his numbers against lefties were down from his career numbers.  Neither of these guys are what one would call irreplaceable, and opening up the job to others may result in the Mets finding some that even does the job better.

 

Certainly none of these jobs are high-impact jobs.  Byrdak pitched merely 37 innings last year, and Hairston only had 145 plate appearances.  So even if the Mets couldn’t find replacements that would do as good a job, the overall effect on the Mets will be minimal.  Other pitchers will get a chance to get outs, and the right-handed pinch-hitting duties will be filled by someone that gets that job done.  Ronny Cedeno and Justin Turner both figure to get some of them anyway, so it’s unlikely the Mets even notice Scott Hairston is gone, unless further injury happens.

 

Chuck James, Danny Herrera, Garrett Olsen, and perhaps Robert Carson or Josh Edgin, are the guys pegged to replace Bydrak.  Vinny Rottino, Adam Loewen, Mike Baxter, and maybe Kirk Nieuwenhuis are the guys in line to replace Scott Hairston and were already competing for a bench spot.  Now two of them will likely get a chance.  None of these guys is likely to come in and make a huge difference, but it’s certainly possible they can at least approximate what Byrdak and Hairston did last year.  There is also the possibility of Sandy Alderson adding someone late in Spring Training to fill a role.

 

Depth is what gets hurt when you have to go to the next in line.  Even if the next in line guys are better you run the risk of further injury forcing you to play someone completely not ready, or not very good.  Lack of depth has been a buzzword to describe the Mets this spring, perhaps unfairly.  In this case the Mets have suitable guys on the depth chart to step in.  That’s the not the case for every position certainly, but if you look around most major league camps you don’t find prospects nipping at the heels of most position players, and you certainly don’t find talented major league veterans just hanging out in AAA waiting to help out.  The Phillies for example have guys like Michael Martinez, Ty Wigginton, and Scott Podsednik floating around on various parts of their depth chart.  Depth is a fluid concept, and Sandy Alderson has suggested there’s room in the budget to make some in-season adjustments.  So what you see is not necessarily the whole picture.

 

I’m interested in seeing how these guys do with a chance to crack the roster.  Hopefully fostering this competition will be good for them, and the Mets will go north with guys ready to contribute in these roles.

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Mets Phrases To Avoid This Season

It’s a new season with fresh players.  There’s nothing to be gained by comparing this year’s team to last year’s.  So here’s a couple of phrases to avoid so we can all just enjoy the 2012 Mets season.

 

“That would’ve been a double/out last year”

“That wouldn’t have been a home run last year”

“Reyes would’ve gotten to that ball.”

“Reyes would be on third base right now.”

 

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Nervous About David Wright’s Ribs?

It’s natural to be a little nervous that David Wright hasn’t played a Spring Training game yet because of some pain/tightness/discomfort in his ribs/chest/oblique.

 

It’s easy to panic, but the signs seem to point to the Mets being super overly cautious this Spring.  The Mets have dealt with some injuries in that area the last couple of years, and most recently Scott Hairston re-injured his oblique, months after he originally hurt it.   Can you imagine the public relations disaster if just a week after Hairston hurt the same muscle, David Wright took a hard swing in a meaningless Spring Training game and was out until May?  The Mets probably view it as a smart move to just not let Wright swing hard for another week or so to assure themselves that he’s not going to hurt it.  He’s certainly got plenty of time to get his timing down for the real games.

 

Wright claims he’d be playing if this was the regular season, and despite the reputation of the Mets word on injuries being what it is, we don’t have anything else to go on.  He’s reportedly doing all his workouts and stretches so he can’t possible be that injured.  Hopefully we’ll see him next week as planned and by the time the season starts we won’t remember that he was even dealing with this.

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Some Optimism For Mike Pelfrey

Mike Pelfrey pitches against the Marlins on May 16th, 2011Mike Pelfrey‘s FIP has actually stayed pretty steady over the last four years, and his xFIP was even steadier. The main difference being that he game up less home runs in 2008 and 2010.     So the question becomes what was it that caused the home run rate to be lower in those years?  Was it dumb luck, or some adjustments on Pelfrey’s part?  Personally I think his xFIP staying the same is precisely what’s wrong with the stat.  Pelfrey clearly pitched better in 2010, particularly in the first part of the year, than he has since.

 

There probably still is some luck to it.  The margin of error for flying out instead of hitting a home run is tiny.   Optimistically, Mike Pelfrey’s numbers in 2011 were probably at the far end of bad luck and it’d be pretty easy to see how even with changing almost nothing he’d probably have a better result in 2012.  Hoping for lucky bounces is not a good philosophy for a major league pitch to adopt however.

 

Pelfrey is working hard this Spring at his sinker.  This is something he admittedly struggled with in 2011, and harnessing it against should be a positive.  For one, it’s a different look than teams are used to.  Adding in a pitch provides a new wrinkle to the scouting report and helps keep hitters off balance.  Additionally, sinkers are harder to hit out of the park as they are harder to hit in the air.  So far the reports are positive on his feel for the pitch.

 

With luck and the sinker, Mike Pelfrey should be an improved pitcher again in 2012.  Throw in a likely improved bullpen and more of Pelfrey’s games should turn into Mets wins.  That only happened 12 of 33 times last season.

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The Best Offense In The NL East

The Mostly Mets Podcast discussed offense in the National League East in episode 33.   The Mets scored the most runs in the division last year, and Toby, Patrick and Ted agreed that they’d probably lead again this year, although the Marlins have gotten real close.

 

Speaking in terms of runs scored the Mets scored 718, the Phillies 713, NL Average was 668, Braves had 641, Florida 625, and the Nationals 624.   The Phillies offense is heavily influenced by the park they play in, and without Ryan Howard indefinitely plus another year of age for Rollins and Utley it doesn’t seem like the Phillies will score as many in 2012.  Can the addition (And subtraction) of Jose Reyes account for 92 runs of difference between the two teams?   The Marlins offense is heavily lopsided with Reyes, Hanley Ramirez and Mike Stanton making up most of it.

 

The Mets drop off from Beltran to Duda shouldn’t be too great, and Andres Torres can probably give the Mets what Angel Pagan gave them last year.  Replacing Jose Reyes’ production is a little tougher.  Luckily most of his at bats will be made up with more at bats from Ike Davis and a little more Ruben Tejada.  David Wright will get more at bats as well, and all of them with a healthy back.  This will all keep the offense churning, even if Jason Bay exhibits no signs of life.

 

If I had to pinpoint one player to worry about, it’d be Tejada.  He’s still young though, so there’s still plenty of hope he’ll improve.  Last year’s OBP was partially BABIP/AVG fueled, but he did improve on his strikeout and walk rate.  Keep improving there and even if he gets lucky he’ll still maintain a very helpful rate at getting on base.

 

One other factor to consider that makes the Mets clear-cut favorites: power.  The Mets got on base more than anyone else in the National League except the Cardinals, but they had league average slugging.  This translates to a lot of runners stranded that otherwise would’ve been runs.  In 2012 the Mets will have more power.  Duda is already impressing people with his power this spring, and Davis will join him to tattoo the Pepsi Porch all year long. Add a healthier Wright and even a 20% bounce back from Jason Bay towards his career norms and the Mets will be a very dangerous threat.  This is all without even mentioning the walls.  The Marlins addition of Jose Reyes will likely raise their on base percentage, but not enough to make up the difference.

 

I’m confident the Mets will have the best offense in the National League East this season.  It’s one step towards a successful season, and it’s also a step that isn’t going anywhere.  The Mets offense is controlled through 2013 at least, with prospects prepared to fill in at some of the weaker positions soon.  The Mets offense is great and will stay that way.

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Will The Mets Be Better Than 2011?

Optimism starts small; will the Mets improve on 2011’s record?  Are they a better team?  Will they perform better?

 

I’m leaning towards yes.   Losing Reyes, Pagan and Beltran is a big hit, but the Mets offense is still pretty strong.  Lucas Duda looks like a solid player.  Andres Torres may not be great, but even if he’s not good the Mets have high hopes for Kirk Nieuwenhuis coming up pretty quickly.  David Wright and Ike Davis are healthy, and Daniel Murphy should get some more playing time as well.  Josh Thole and Ruben Tejada may not be the best, but they’re pretty good at not making out and keeping the line moving.  This team won’t have problems scoring runs.

 

The bullpen is clearly slated to be better.  Francisco Rodriguez will not be here, but the Mets added Frank Francisco, Ramon Ramirez, and Jon Rauch.  Some injury concerns, but the bullpen has some pretty good depth.

 

The starters are where the big questions come in.  The Mets lost Chris Capuano, who did a pretty good job for them.  Good job aside, his eminently replaceable 1.7 rWAR is not going to handicap them much.  Johan Santana is slated to take that spot, provided he does not have a setback during Spring Training.  Despite this serious possibility I have faith Santana can at least approach the 1.7 rWAR Capuano gave the Mets.  Even if he’s somewhat diminished, he’s a smart competitor that should be able to get by with somewhat reduced ability.    With luck bouncing a little more in Pelfrey’s favor this season, and Jon Niese’s peripherals leading to a better ERA, it’s possible the Mets starters will be better too.  It probably hinges most on health, but that’s an argument and concern for every team.

 

So there’s a very high-level argument for the Mets being better.  We can worry about how much better another time, particularly as it pertains to the other NL East teams and their records.  Specifically, it’ll be decided on the field with the games being played, not on a blog or newspaper somewhere before the season even starts.

 

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Spring Training Is Finally Here

It’s arrived. The day we’ve been counting down towards since the Mets walked off the field last fall.  Pitchers and catchers are reporting to Port St. Lucie Florida to Digital Domain Park to being preparing to play baseball.

 

It’s a time of new beginnings and fresh starts.  The Mets begin 2012 with no players injured and everyone preparing together.  Terry Collins and Sandy Alderson now have a year of familiarity with the team and the organization and a better sense of what they’re capable of.  There are new faces and old ones.  Someone here is going to surprise us and have a breakout season.   There are going to be long majestic home runs arcing into the sky, diving catches on sinking liners, and curveballs making batters look funny and strike out.  Everything you love about baseball starts happening now, as the Mets start to get ready to play some exhibition games in two weeks.

 

Soon (March 5th, 6pm) the voices of Howie Rose and newly acquired Josh Lewin will drift out over the airwaves, talking about Mets this, and Mets that.  The Mets Extra jingle will play and we’ll hear Mets talk and interviews and daily sound bytes from Terry Collins. What could be better?  It’s baseball!

 

What to expect from Optimistic Mets Fan this year?  Think of these as my New Year’s Resolutions, because the baseball New Year starts now.

 

For one, I’ve got a couple of ticket giveaways planned.  That should be fun, but I should warn you: I’m probably going to request optimism from you to be eligible.

I plan to work on getting a working database on my own computer so I can tweet and post random stats that amuse me, as well as delve further into the understanding of baseball as a whole.

I also plan to interface with other bloggers better.  Whether this is linking them more, guest-writing, or talking on the various radio/podcast type shows out there only time will tell.

And I will continue to blog about beer as it pertains to baseball.  I’ll specifically update the Citi Field Beer List, as well as talk about what’s going on in other parks.  If you’re a beer fan of a non-NY baseball team and feel like helping me out, drop me an email.

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Baseball Is A Collection of Sprints, Not a Marathon

Baseball statistics have come a long way.  We have a ton of information at our fingertips and are able to perform some pretty awesome analysis of baseball players.  This includes things like projections, trying to figure out which pitchers were victims of bad luck and fielding, and which hitters are having some unsustainable success.   However, baseball is an elaborate game.  You can do all this work, analyze all these players, and have a pretty good idea of what should happen over a large sample of data and still have completely no idea what’s going to happen in any given moment.  The cliche is that baseball is a marathon and not a sprint, but truthfully it’s probably like a whole bunch of sprints crammed together.  You can make some pretty good educated guesses about who’s going to win the marathon, but each individual sprint is pretty much a crap shoot.

 

Ultimately everyone wants to see their team win the marathon, but most of the enjoyment comes from watching them win some of those individual sprints.  A thrilling pitching matchup or a walk-off home run can be as exciting in 2012 as it was in 2006, or 1986.  This is sort of the baseball opposite of missing the forest for the trees.  We can get so focused on which teams are the best in a division or which individual players are the best that we miss that sometimes things happen in the individual games and matchups that are awesome and fun to watch.  It doesn’t matter that Andres Torres may not be a very good major leaguer; he can still go 3-4 in one game with two home runs.  Mike Pelfrey’s barely an above average pitcher, but he’s capable of pitching a complete game with 3 hits.  This is especially true in April and May when you’ve just gotten into the forest and trying to figure out what the whole place looks like is just silly; relax and look at the trees!

 

Even the 1962 Mets played some thrilling games.  That’s the beauty of baseball.  Maybe Santana comes back rejuvenated and strikes out every batter he faces on the way to a Mets playoff berth.  Maybe adjusting the walls make no difference and the Mets struggle to hit for power.  Either way I promise you there will be fun Mets baseball this summer.  At least 162 magical opportunities to see something you haven’t seen before.   Who knows, maybe this is the year the Mets finally pitch that illusive no-hitter.  Would you want to miss it because you have the Mets penciled in for last place and decided to spend your Saturday afternoon in June at the zoo?

 

 

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Mets: Bucking the Narrative since 2000

Beat writers and columnists covering a team often look for compelling stories to talk about over a long season.  Bloggers and fans do this as well, although to a lesser extent and they’re less likely to look for off the field drama to drive a narrative. I’ve always been fascinated by some of the parallels and story lines you can draw from baseball. However it seems like lately every great story set-up the Mets stumble into fails to produce fruit.

 

In 1999 the storyline was that no one in the NL East, specifically the Mets, could beat the Braves.  The Mets fell behind and ultimately needed a game 163 just to make the playoffs.  When they met the Braves in the NLCS, the storyline was affirmed as the Mets fell to the Braves in six games.  The season ended on a Kenny Rogers based-loaded walk, reaffirming what Yankees fans already knew about him; that he couldn’t win in New York.

 

The 2000 season featured the Roger Clemens bean-ball incident, where Clemens hit Mike Piazza in the head and Piazza, and most fans, clearly felt was intentional.  The two teams met in the World Series, with Clemens starting game two on the mound for the Yankees.  It was the perfect setup for Piazza to get his revenge and carry the Mets to a championship over Clemens and the Yankees.  Instead, Clemens flung a shard of broken bat at Piazza and the Mets lost the game and the series.

 

The end of the 2001 season found the Mets in the center of the 9/11 tragedy.   Piazza’s home run in the first game back in New York could’ve been a catalyst to lead the Mets back into the playoff race and a third consecutive trip to the playoffs.  Instead they won the game but fell out of the race soon after.

 

In 2006 the Mets had the best record on the majors and went up against a barely above .500 Cardinals team in the NLCS, but there was no magical storyline.  Carlos Beltran absolutely destroyed them, again, in a losing effort.  Cliff Floyd pinch hit in what could’ve been a Kirk Gibson moment with him barely being able to run but at bat as the winning run. This was after the amazing Endy Chavez catch over the wall to rob Rolen and double-up Edmonds game.  That play could’ve gone on to be one of the most amazing moments in postseason history had it led to a victory.  Chavez had a chance to break open the game himself in the bottom of that same inning, and failed to do so.  No magical endings to this one.

 

2007, and 2008, were the real start of the negative narratives.  The talk was about collapses, devastation, and injury. Shea Stadium didn’t end with a bang, in fact that failed Endy Chavez game was the last one ever played in the park.  Citi Field didn’t open with a bang either.  Injuries piled up and the Mets crumbled under all the mess, both on the field and off.

 

So what’s the story for 2012?  What’s the magical journey for the Mets?  The one I’m hoping for is the New York Giants parallel.  A team given no chance to beat Philly that’s dealt with a lot of injuries despite actually having some talent.

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Daniel Murphy is Pure Chaos

Baseball players don’t have enough cool nicknames.  So when Ted Berg suggested, via Ike Davis, that “Pure Chaos” would be a good nickname for Daniel Murphy I decided to run with it.   It may not describe his hitting style, but I do think it applies to his general approach to the game.  Before you say anything, The Irish Hammer does not count as a nickname.

 

Howie Rose: “Coming up in the bottom of the inning for the Mets: Niese, Tejada and Pure Chaos.”

 

Sports Radio Update Guy: “It was all Pure Chaos at Citi Field last night, as the Mets walloped the Phillies eight to one.”
Daniel Murphy's Nickname is Pure Chaos