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The Difference Between Prudence and Pessimism

Sandy Alderson was quoted recently as viewing Johan Santana as a question mark for the rotation to start the season.  This comment was a statement on being prudent and building depth, not a dire prediction about Santana’s health.  Still, it was misrepresented and reported as a medical update instead of simply an extension of previous comments of Alderson’s suggesting it’s a good idea to have lots of depth in the rotation.   Johan Santana has not had a setback, and is on exactly the same path he has been since early October; Opening Day.  He’s begun offseason conditioning, but it’s way too early to start throwing a baseball.  Certainly there’s a possibility when he starts throwing that his shoulder will struggle to respond the way a pitcher’s needs to, but that’s merely a possibility, not a prediction.

Expecting Santana’s body to respond like Mark Prior’s, or Chien Ming Wang’s, is probably as silly as me expecting my body to respond like David Wright’s when I go to the gym. It’s even possible Santana and his doctors could use Wang and Prior’s experience as guidelines to improve on the rehabilitation process.  Santana is a different person, and everyone’s body responds differently.  There is a thought out there that because of copy number variation in the human genome, and other in depth biological stuff outside my paygrade, that there is some difference in the way different racial populations across the globe adapted over the last 200,000 years or so.  Basically expecting Santana’s body to heal and strengthen like Mark Prior’s may be like expecting your Ford Fusion to break down at the same odometer reading your neighbor’s Focus broke down at.

They estimated Tommy John’s odds of recovery from his procedure at 1%, but nowadays 83% or so of the operations go as planned.  Practice makes perfect, so to speak.  A lot of that has to do with the regiment and rehab schedules and learning what’s the best way to get the elbow or shoulder into game shape again.  This isn’t to say that that Santana is a lock to make even 25 starts next season, or that he’ll be successful if he does so.   It simply means that Sandy Alderson is aware of the severity of the surgery Santana had and knows the importance of pitching depth.  That’s it.

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1987 New York Mets Signed Team Baseball

Here are some pictures of a baseball I came into possession of.  When you find a signed baseball from the 1980s, you pretty much always expect it to be the ’86 World Series team, especially when the first two names that jump out at you are Rafael Santana and Wally Backman.

But then I saw Kevin McReynolds who didn’t arrive until 1987.  Santana departed after the 1987 season, so that was the only year they played together and therefore the only year the ball can be from.  So there it is, a New York Mets team signed baseball from 1987.

And yes, this baseball was apparently purchased at Sea World.

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2011 Mets Statistics You Probably Haven’t Heard

Dillon Gee led all National League rookies with 13 wins.  Vance Worley was 2nd with 11.

 

Lucas Duda had the highest OBP and SLG among qualifying rookies. (.370 and .482)

 

Justin Turner was second, 30 to 32, in doubles for NL rookies.

 

Both Jose Reyes and Angel Pagan were in the top ten for hardest to double up.  Jose Reyes was the hardest man to strike out in the National League. (14.3 AB between strikeouts.  That’s like twice a week)

 

Jason Bay was tied, with 2, for the most Grand Slams in the NL.

 

The Mets were second, .264, in AVG in the NL, and second in OBP, .335.

 

They left 59 more players on base, 1257, than the Marlins who had the second most at 1198.  Mets opponents left 1230 on base.

 

7 of David Wright‘s 14 home runs were go-ahead home runs.

 

The Mets were 9-4 on Saturdays at home, 2-11 on Saturdays on the road.

 

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Realignment: Home Field, Tie-Breakers, More Interleague, Bench

The news this week is that the Astros sale is final and they’ve agreed to move to the AL West for 2013.  This means the schedule will consist of 30 interleague games, all season long, as well as the 72 against your own division, and another 60 against the rest of your league.    I happen to like it, besides the keeping the DH thing that gives the AL an unfair advantage.  A 2nd wild card berth will also be added with a one-game sudden death playoff for the true Wild Card spot.

 

These changes were made to even up the leagues as well as put the emphasis on winning the division.   Winning the division guarantees you’ll make the Division Series, although doesn’t give you any additional benefit _in_ any of the series besides home field over the Wild Card.  I’d actually like to see that eliminated now, and just go with best record.   If a 94 win wild card team already has to dispatch with a lesser team in a sudden death match, let them have the home field after that if they’re playing an 88 win division winner.

 

For those of you that still think the balanced schedule is important, this new format would include that for the divisional race, although not the wild card race.  Each division would play the same set of interleague teams.   What I’d be curious about is the tie-breakers.  Previously if two teams were tied for the division and wild card, but both would make the playoffs, the team with the better record is awarded the division.   While I think there is merit to keeping the same format, emphasizing that you need to beat the teams in your division to actually win it, I could see where it’s a tough pill to swallow to technically have the best record in the division and have to play a sudden death game.

 

This format has the potential to create a lot of heartbreak.  Especially the first couple of years as teams leading in the Wild Card are used to coasting and preparing for the playoffs.  To then potentially go home one day after the season ends is going to feel much like we felt as Mets fans in 2007 and 2008, or Reds fans felt in 1999.  I suspect the winning team will treat the game as pretty much an extension of the regular season, not getting overly excited about winning that ‘first round’ game.

 

Many will dislike the extra interleague, but I’ve got no more desire to see another series against the Dodgers than the Angels.  Roster construction in the National League may take on a different form.  With interleague play scattered throughout the season, and more of it, NL teams may feel the need to carry more of a DH type player on the bench.   None of this is official yet of course, but it looks like it’s pretty close to accurate and finalized.  It’ll be interesting to see how it shakes out, but I think it could be fun.

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A Chance For The 2012 New York Mets

Take 2011 where two teams completely out of it suddenly made the playoffs and one of them even won it all.  It’s impossible to predict baseball.  Sure you usually have a pretty good chance of knowing which teams will be good, and which will be bad, but every year dozens of people that watch hundreds of games are completely wrong about who’s going to win divisions.

 

Despite a handful of games against the Wild Card-leading Atlanta Braves still to come in the last 60 or so games, when the Mets traded Carlos Beltran on July 27th while trailing those Braves by 7.5 games, it was considered the right move.  That’s a lot of ground to make up for a team barely above .500, and the long term benefits of trading Beltran were largely considered to outweigh any gutshot chance the Mets had at overcoming that deficit.  As it turns out, the Mets were only two games behind the team that eventually won the Wild Card.  The St. Louis Cardinals were a mere couple of games better than the Mets at that point, and they even still had head to head games remaining.    A lot of things still went wrong for the Mets from that point forward.  They didn’t finish above .500 and it’s extremely unlikely that keeping Beltran would’ve made much of a difference.  Still, it’s a pretty good example of how you never quite know what it’s going to take to make the playoffs.

 

That’s what I want from the Mets in 2012 while they get their payroll/revenue balance under control.   I’m not demanding they throw money around and attempt to buy a championship, but they need to keep the possibility of a championship open.  Put the team in a position so that if most things go right they can make the playoffs.  I’m not talking outlandish things like Ruben Tejada putting up a season like Jose Reyes.   Jose Reyes plays 140+ games.  Jason Bay has a season that splits the difference between his best years and his Mets years.  Johan Santana makes 30 starts and is a good, if not great, pitcher.  Pagan is more pre-2011 Met than 2011 Met.  Josh Thole, Lucas Duda, and Ike Davis progress and have good solid major league years at their positions.  Jon Niese takes a step forward.  Mike Pelfrey‘s numbers fall more in line with 2010 than 2011.   The bullpen guys that get signed, coupled with the ones that remain from last year, perform reasonably well and keep the games from getting away.  The biggest one of course is that the Mets stay reasonably healthy.

 

None of those things are that outlandish.  Some are even likely.  There are also good things and bad things that will be completely unforeseen.   David Wright could break his back again, or R.A. Dickey could decide to live on Kilimanjaro and back out of his 2012 contract.  One of the yet unsigned relievers could go on to have an unbelievable shut-down type year, and Mark Cohoon could be promoted from the minors in May and have a Rookie of the Year caliber season.  You just never know, so give it a chance and hope and root for more good than bad.  We’re certainly due.

 

 

 

 

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Hunting For Old Mets VHS Tapes

A lot of the official broadcast tapes for old Mets games and post/pre game shows like Kiner’s Korner have been lost in time.  However, Mets fans are always recording things.  I bet there are hundreds of tapes of old Mets stuff on TV, including Kiner’s Korner episodes no one’s seen in decades, sitting in boxes in fans’ basements.  

 Why not put out a public service announcement during Mets games asking fans to check out what they have?  Set up a phone line and have some interns catalogue what people have.  Then offer free Mets tickets to anyone that sends in something new.  Before these VHS tapes, and VCRs, are lost forever we should recover what we can.  This doesn’t have to be limited to Kiner’s Korners or broadcasts.  If you open the door I bet you’d find some interesting stuff.  Mets appearances at Little League dinners, old appearances on news programs, and even some fun commercials. 

Mets fans love their history, and we’d surely watch some of these things on SNY.  The station isn’t exactly overloaded with things to air that keep Mets fans tuning in beyond the games.  I’m sure we’d get a kick out of some of that old stuff, even the old advertisments and sponsors.  The Crane Pool Forum even devotes their Player of the Game awards to an old sponsor: Schaefer.   It can’t hurt to ask can it?

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New York Mets: Winning Franchise?

With all the bumbling and incompetence attributed to the Mets, I started to wonder how they’d do in a purely random system.  If you simply decided the World Series champion based on a roll of a 30-sided die on Opening Day the Mets would win one out of every 30 seasons.   The Mets have two titles in 50 years, but there weren’t always 30 teams.  So what does the math say?

For the first seven years there was a 5% chance to win, so they should’ve won .05 titles a year.   As expansion happened that .05 number drops towards the .0333 it is today.

 

7 * .05 = .35 (1962-1968)

8 * .04167 = .3333  (1969-1976)

16 * .0385 = .6154 (1977-1992)

5 * .0357 = .1786 (1993-1997)

14 * .0333 = .4667 (1998-2011)

 

If you add that all up you get 1.944 titles the Mets would’ve won in their history purely based on the roll of a die.  Statistically they’re beating the odds, however they will fall behind the pace if they don’t win one in the next two years.

 

How about just making the playoffs, based off the randomness.

7 * .1  = .7 (1962-1968, 10 teams, 1 spot)

24 * .1667  = 4 (1969-1992, 12 teams, 2 spots)

.1429 (1993, 14 teams, 2 spots)

4 * .2857   = 1.1429 (1994-1997, 14 teams, 4 spots)
4 * .1667 = .6667 (1994-1997, 12 teams, 2 spots)

14 * .25 = 3.5 (1998-2011, 16 teams, 4 spots)
14 * .1429 = 2 (1998-2011, 14 teams, 2 spots)

The Wild Card and divisional format makes it a little tricky, as the Mets technically aren’t competing for an NL West playoff berth.   I don’t think even random odds should award them that.   I did the math based on the two potential spots the Mets could win, and removed the two teams that would win the other two divisions.   It’s not exact since if the two best teams were in another division the Mets could get in as the third best team, but for the sake of randomness I think it’s close enough.

 

Adding them up gives you 7.5096 playoff berths (9.4858 if you want them to try to win the NL Central) which is a shade off the seven playoffs the Mets have seen.

 

What if just the playoffs were determined randomly?  The Mets actually do pretty good there.

 

4 * .25 = 1 (1969, 1973, 1986, 1988.  4 team playoffs)

3 *  .125 = .375 (1999, 2000, 2006.  8 team playoffs)

 

They would’ve won 1.375 championships once they made the playoffs, suggesting that the Mets have made the most out of their playoff berths. ( They’re 9-5 in playoff series)

 

So overall, the Mets aren’t a bad franchise.  They win their fair share of championships, make the most of their time in the playoffs, and get regularly, if not frequently play in October.

 

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On Writing Off 2012 in October of 2011

You can find remarks about the Mets 2012 season being over all over the place.  It’s on Twitter, in the mainstream media, in blogs and blog comments.  Its popularity doesn’t make the statement any less ridiculous.  To suggest that anyone knows exactly how much money the Mets will spend, who they will spend it on, and the likely makeup of the 2012 roster is crazy.  To suggest that anyone how that roster, and the other 29 rosters, will perform is crazier.

The randomness of injuries is one such pitfall to this.   If you can suggest with confidence that the Mets will get hurt, and the opposition won’t, for all of next year you’re kidding yourself.   Every year some injury prone guys stay healthy and have big years, and some perpetually healthy guys get hurt and miss time.   On every team.   Ryan Howard is already out for at least 5-6 months.  David Wright missed months.  Ike Davis missed almost the entire season.  The Mets were a revolving door of injuries and if you’re sure that David Wright is going to get hurt again you’re either delusional or you have a voodoo doll.  Every team deals with injuries, but the Mets managed to have more than most and have them happen to their key guys.  What if it had been Scott Hairston, Jason Pridie and Tim Byrdak that had the most serious injuries last season?

Jose Reyes has stated he’d like to stay with the Mets, and Sandy Alderson has declared it Reyes month.  If you’re sure Reyes isn’t going to be a Met next season, you’re not listening.  It all flows from there.   Sandy Alderson could remake the bullpen and acquire a quality starting pitcher that provides the team with much needed quality innings and allows the offense to build leads.  Jon Niese could develop into an ace.   Lucas Duda could hold down right field and prove to be a force at the plate.  There are a lot of ifs around the league, and despite finances or contracts, the Mets have as much a shot of making themselves better as anyone else.

You’ll often hear “The Mets are so many players away from contending.”  This seems to be a shot in the dark, at best.  No one knows how many players the Mets need, and at what positions.   Health plays in.  The Mets needed to completely collapse in 2007 to miss the playoffs.  It’d have been easy to say that adding Johan Santana, the best pitcher in baseball, was that ‘one player away’ the Mets needed.   Baseball is a team game, and often little moves have a cascading effect.  Adding one solid starting pitching could take 20-30 innings off the bullpens workload.   Most of the time those innings will be the lesser relievers, the guys that generally pitch in the 5th and 6th of games that aren’t critical.   You’re able to shift those innings away from the lower quality relievers, to the higher quality relievers.  Those innings also save total innings pitched for the relievers as a whole, providing them with a little more rest and making them more effective.   Then you can couple that with signing a couple of relievers, no one that’s big-impact, but talented pitchers that help raise the amount of quality innings you’re getting out of the bullpen.

The Mets have a lot of talent.  David Wright, Ike Davis, Daniel Murphy, Jon Niese, Johan Santana and hopefully Jose Reyes.  Hopefully some of the other guys like Lucas Duda, Mike Pelfrey, Angel Pagan, and Jason Bay have pretty talented years as well.   You don’t round out a team with All-Stars, you do it with quality players that provide consistent value.   You sign relievers you trust to get guys out most days.  You sign a veteran backup catcher to help mentor Thole and perhaps platoon with him.  Decent bench guys that can provide value in a key pinch-hitting spot and provide defense when they come into the game late.  The Mets, even with a less ridiculous payroll than the Yankees, will add a bunch of new players next year.  Some of these players will surprise, some will disappoint. If more surprise than disappoint, something we’re hopeful of because of Sandy Alderson, than the Mets will compete.